On eve of SD 14 election, Dems still lag in early vote, but data suggests possible victory in defeat

With early voting now closed in Hillsborough County for the Special Election in Senate District 14, Republicans are now about 3,000 votes ahead of Democrats.

As of Friday, the GOP turnout advantage had been about 1,000 votes lower.

While there’s no guarantee that all Republicans voted for GOP candidate Josie Tomkow — or, conversely, that all Democrats voted for their party’s nominee, Brian Nathan — Democrats likely needed to head into Election Day with an early-vote advantage if they hoped for an upset.

By the raw numbers, that’s not happening. As of 11 a.m. Monday, 3,035 more Republicans had cast a ballot in the race than Democrats, with 24,542 Republicans having already voted, compared to 21,507 Democrats. Another 9,493 voters with no political affiliation or minor party affiliation have also cast a ballot.

But by percentages, Democrats are leading the early-vote turnout at 23%. Republican turnout sits at 21% while no-party/other voter turnout is less than 11%. Overall turnout, including all voters, is at less than 19%.

While those numbers don’t necessarily suggest a victory for Nathan on Election Day, they do suggest a possible victory for Democrats even in defeat.

Jay Collins — the former Senator for SD 14 who is now Lieutenant Governor and is running for Governor — won his race four years ago with nearly 55% of the vote, a nearly 10-percentage-point victory.

Based on early-vote totals so far, and assuming Republican voters cast a ballot for Tomkow and Democrats for Nathan, Tomkow has the edge with 44% of ballots cast, while Democratic ballots account for a little less than 39%. That’s a big overperformance for Democrats compared to the 2022 election.

Such an overperformance could signal trouble ahead for Republicans in November, though it certainly does not guarantee it. This is, after all, Florida, where political outcomes can often buck national trends.

What Democratic strategists are likely watching even closer are the number of independent and third-party voters who have cast a ballot.

If 60% of those voters were to cast a ballot for Nathan, he would be at 49% support heading into Election Day, with Tomkow still having the advantage at about 51%.

Based on conversations with political observers familiar with SD 14, it doesn’t sound like anyone is expecting an outright Democratic victory. The district is just too red to swing even in a Midterm Election year expected to favor Democrats. But most think a Democratic overperformance is possible, if not likely, and could offer early clues into outcomes later this year in the 2026 General Election.

There are other factors to consider, too. Historically, voter turnout on Election Day favors Republicans, which means the advantage in early voting now might only get bigger once precinct vote tallies start rolling in.

And the number of independent and third-party voters who have cast a ballot so far might also be troubling for Democrats. The party needs those voters to push them over the top, not just in a red district like SD 14, but come November in other swingy districts the party thinks might be in play in a Midterm year. At less than 11% turnout in early and mail voting, those voters would need to turn out en masse on Election Day to even begin to bridge the turnout gap among major party voters.

Early voting in the district, which spans Tampa and parts of Northwest Hillsborough County, ended Sunday evening. Mail ballots can still be returned to Supervisor of Elections offices through 7 p.m. on Election Day.

In addition to data showing her with a distinct advantage in the race, Tomkow also entered with several other advantages. GOP voters account for nearly 39% of the district’s electorate, with nearly 116,000 voters. Democrats account for just 31%, with nearly 93,000 voters. Nearly 27% of the electorate — a little over 79,000 voters — is not affiliated with a political party.

And Tomkow entered the race in November and quickly cleared the field, leaving her unopposed in a GOP Primary after announcing her campaign with support from prominent Republican politicians.

Backers include U.S. Rep. Laurel Lee; state Reps. Lawrence McClure, the House budget chief, Danny Alvarez, Traci Koster and Michael Owen; Sheriffs Chad Chronister of Hillsborough County, Grady Judd of Polk County and Chris Nocco of Pasco County; and Hillsborough County Commissioner Christine Miller.

That support also comes with money. At the time she launched her campaign, sources told Florida Politics she had $3 million on hand for the race, though they didn’t note in what accounts.

The most recent reports show Tomkow has about $148,000 on hand in her official campaign account, with another nearly $315,000 in an affiliated political committee, Friends of Josie Tomkow.

None of that accounts for outside spending on her behalf, but even still, it far surpasses the spending capabilities of her challenger. Nathan has raised less than $65,000 to his official campaign and had just over $12,000 remaining on hand as of Feb. 12, the most recent date for which data is available.

Polls open on Election Day Tuesday morning at 7 a.m. and will remain open until 7 p.m. Voters can find their polling places on the Hillsborough County Supervisor of Elections website.