Connect with us

Business

Nvidia will move the market tonight in a test of the alleged AI bubble

Published

on



Good morning. After the bell today, Nvidia will report earnings. And in the tech world and beyond, one thing is clear: Nvidia’s earnings aren’t just about Nvidia anymore. The $4 trillion chipmaker’s quarterly financials have become a litmus test for the AI boom—and, by extension, for the whole stock market. Constituting 8% of the market cap-weighted S&P 500 Index, and with an unrivaled grip on the chips that power generative AI, Wall Street now treats Nvidia’s results more like a macroeconomic indicator than as a report card on a single company. The earnings announcement has even become a cultural phenomenon complete with watch parties.

In the three months since the company last gave investors a quarterly update, back in May, Nvidia’s stock has surged 35%. Wall Street analysts are looking for Nvidia’s Q2 revenue to surge 53% year-over-year to $46 billion, at the high end of Nvidia’s guidance, with earnings per share of $1.01. Data center sales, the crux of Nvidia’s business, are expected to come in close to $40 billion.

And uncertainty about Nvidia’s China business continues to loom large. After previously banning Nvidia from selling to China, earlier this month Nvidia and AMD struck a deal with the Trump administration to grant export licenses in exchange for a 15% revenue-sharing arrangement on China chip sales. “I suspect they will not count, nor forecast China revenue, there’s too much uncertainty involved,” predicts Karl Freund, founder and principal analyst at Cabrian-AI Research.

Beyond geopolitics, Nvidia faces another challenge: The tension surrounding what is already the most closely watched earnings event of the season has been ratcheted up by recent jitters over what some worry is a dangerous financial bubble in AI-related stocks. This would strike at the heart of Nvidia’s business and its stratospheric valuation—the company trades at more than 40 times its projected earnings—which rely on ever-growing demand for its powerful GPUs. Nvidia’s growth is heavily concentrated in a handful of cloud giants, including Meta, Amazon, Google and Microsoft, as well as highly funded AI startups like OpenAI. If those companies slow their spending, Nvidia could suddenly lose its biggest buyers. And with Nvidia’s shares having gained so much in recent months, a miss on Wednesday, or cautious guidance tied to China restrictions, could send Nvidia stock—or for that matter the broader market—plummeting.

Let the watch parties begin.—Sharon Goldman

Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com

Top news

India faces 50% tariffs

Imports into the U.S. from India will be taxed at 50% starting today. The steep levies comprise a 25% tariff intended to offset the U.S.’s trade deficit with the U.S. plus a 25% punishment tariff because India continues to buy oil from Russia despite international sanctions intended to isolate Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Before the war, Russian crude was 0.2% of India’s imports, according to the NY Times. In 2023, it was 45%.

Successful SpaceX Starship flight

Elon Musk’s space cargo company successfully conducted a test flight of the world’s largest and most powerful rocket, Starship, and its Super Heavy booster. The craft returned to Earth safely after a string of previous failures. The flight bodes well for NASA’s attempt to return astronauts to the moon in 2027 via a SpaceX vessel. 

Employers regain upper hand in job market

There is no longer a wage growth advantage for workers who switch into new jobs, according to research by Bank of America. For years, job hoppers tended to earn more, gaining pay rises as they accepted new roles, compared to those who stayed loyal to one company. But for the first time since 2010, that pay differential has been erased.

Piper Sandler warns of bond vigilantes

A new note from Piper Sandler warns that President Trump’s legally questionable attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa indicates that “the U.S. is moving away from free markets, limited government, and the rule of law at an astonishing pace.” If Congress won’t stop the President from politicizing the Fed, the note also reads, then “‘bond vigilantes’ will not save America from the developing problem.”

Investors unbothered by Trump’s war on the Fed

Meanwhile, investors are excited for a potential rate cut following Trump’s attempt to fire Cook. Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, told Fortune that “eliminating Fed incompetence is far more important than defending alleged Fed independence. The Fed has always been political; it’s only Trump who talks about it in public.”

Cracker Barrel shares jump 7% on logo reversal

Restaurant chain Cracker Barrel said on Tuesday it would revert back to its traditional “old timer” logo. It received days of withering criticism online for launching a new, modern-looking logo that ditched an image of an old man sitting in a chair next to a wooden barrel. President Trump praised the news. Shares in the company rose in after hours trading and were up 7% this morning, premarket.

DOJ sued over Epstein files

The Trump Administration has been sued by a nonprofit group, the Democracy Defenders Fund, for allegedly failing to respond to its Freedom of Information Act request to release all documents the DOJ holds on the late billionaire Jeffrey Epstein that also mention President Trump.

The markets

S&P 500 futures were flat this morning premarket, after the index closed up 0.41% yesterday. STOXX Europe 600 was flat in early trading. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.11% in early trading. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.33%. China’s CSI 300 was down 1.49%. The South Korea KOSPI was up 0.25%. India’s Nifty 50 was down 1.02% before the end of the session. Bitcoin rose to $110.6K.

Around the watercooler

First-of-its-kind Stanford study says AI is starting to have a ‘significant and disproportionate impact’ on entry-level workers in the U.S. by Nick Lichtenberg

Why every CEO—and every American—should be fed up with Trump’s Fed attack by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Stephen Henriques

Taylor Swift’s ‘amazing’ 8-carat engagement ring set Travis Kelce back $550,000, jewelry expert estimates by Eva Roytburg

The world’s youngest self-made billionaire says the secret to closing deals is exploiting investors’ greed and fear of missing out by Dave Smith

CEO Daily is compiled and edited by Joey Abrams and Jim Edwards.

This is the web version of CEO Daily, a newsletter of must-read global insights from CEOs and industry leaders. Sign up to get it delivered free to your inbox.



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Miss Universe co-owner gets bank accounts frozen as part of probe into drugs, fuel and arms trafficking

Published

on



Mexico’s anti-money laundering office has frozen the bank accounts of the Mexican co-owner of Miss Universe as part of an investigation into drugs, fuel and arms trafficking, an official said Friday.

The country’s Financial Intelligence Unit, which oversees the fight against money laundering, froze Mexican businessman Raúl Rocha Cantú’s bank accounts in Mexico, a federal official told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment on the investigation.

The action against Rocha Cantú adds to mounting controversies for the Miss Universe organization. Last week, a court in Thailand issued an arrest warrant for the Thai co-owner of the Miss Universe Organization in connection with a fraud case and this year’s competition — won by Miss Mexico Fatima Bosch — faced allegations of rigging.

The Miss Universe organization did not immediately respond to an email from The Associated Press seeking comment about the allegations against Rocha Cantú.

Mexico’s federal prosecutors said last week that Rocha Cantú has been under investigation since November 2024 for alleged organized crime activity, including drug and arms trafficking, as well as fuel theft. Last month, a federal judge issued 13 arrest warrants for some of those involved in the case, including the Mexican businessman, whose company Legacy Holding Group USA owns 50% of the Miss Universe shares.

The organization’s other 50% belongs to JKN Global Group Public Co. Ltd., a company owned by Jakkaphong “Anne” Jakrajutatip.

A Thai court last week issued an arrest warrant for Jakrajutatip who was released on bail in 2023 on the fraud case. She failed to appear as required in a Bangkok court on Nov. 25. Since she did not notify the court about her absence, she was deemed to be a flight risk, according to a statement from the Bangkok South District Court.

The court rescheduled her hearing for Dec. 26.

Rocha Cantú was also a part owner of the Casino Royale in the northern Mexican city of Monterrey, when it was attacked in 2011 by a group of gunmen who entered it, doused gasoline and set it on fire, killing 52 people.

Baltazar Saucedo Estrada, who was charged with planning the attack, was sentenced in July to 135 years in prison.



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Elon Musk’s X fined $140 million by EU for breaching digital regulations

Published

on



European Union regulators on Friday fined X, Elon Musk’s social media platform, 120 million euros ($140 million) for breaches of the bloc’s digital regulations, in a move that risks rekindling tensions with Washington over free speech.

The European Commission issued its decision following an investigation it opened two years ago into X under the 27-nation bloc’s Digital Services Act, also known as the DSA.

It’s the first time that the EU has issued a so-called non-compliance decision since rolling out the DSA. The sweeping rulebook requires platforms to take more responsibility for protecting European users and cleaning up harmful or illegal content and products on their sites, under threat of hefty fines.

The Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, said it was punishing X because of three different breaches of the DSA’s transparency requirements. The decision could rile President Donald Trump, whose administration has lashed out at digital regulations, complained that Brussels was targeting U.S. tech companies and vowed to retaliate.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio posted on his X account that the Commission’s fine was akin to an attack on the American people. Musk later agreed with Rubio’s sentiment.

“The European Commission’s $140 million fine isn’t just an attack on @X, it’s an attack on all American tech platforms and the American people by foreign governments,” Rubio wrote. “The days of censoring Americans online are over.”

Vice President JD Vance, posting on X ahead of the decision, accused the Commission of seeking to fine X “for not engaging in censorship.”

“The EU should be supporting free speech not attacking American companies over garbage,” he wrote.

Officials denied the rules were intended to muzzle Big Tech companies. The Commission is “not targeting anyone, not targeting any company, not targeting any jurisdictions based on their color or their country of origin,” spokesman Thomas Regnier told a regular briefing in Brussels. “Absolutely not. This is based on a process, democratic process.”

X did not respond immediately to an email request for comment.

EU regulators had already outlined their accusations in mid-2024 when they released preliminary findings of their investigation into X.

Regulators said X’s blue checkmarks broke the rules because on “deceptive design practices” and could expose users to scams and manipulation.

Before Musk acquired X, when it was previously known as Twitter, the checkmarks mirrored verification badges common on social media and were largely reserved for celebrities, politicians and other influential accounts, such as Beyonce, Pope Francis, writer Neil Gaiman and rapper Lil Nas X.

After he bought it in 2022, the site started issuing the badges to anyone who wanted to pay $8 per month.

That means X does not meaningfully verify who’s behind the account, “making it difficult for users to judge the authenticity of accounts and content they engage with,” the Commission said in its announcement.

X also fell short of the transparency requirements for its ad database, regulators said.

Platforms in the EU are required to provide a database of all the digital advertisements they have carried, with details such as who paid for them and the intended audience, to help researches detect scams, fake ads and coordinated influence campaigns. But X’s database, the Commission said, is undermined by design features and access barriers such as “excessive delays in processing.”

Regulators also said X also puts up “unnecessary barriers” for researchers trying to access public data, which stymies research into systemic risks that European users face.

“Deceiving users with blue checkmarks, obscuring information on ads and shutting out researchers have no place online in the EU. The DSA protects users,” Henna Virkkunen, the EU’s executive vice-president for tech sovereignty, security and democracy, said in a prepared statement.

The Commission also wrapped up a separate DSA case Friday involving TikTok’s ad database after the video-sharing platform promised to make changes to ensure full transparency.

___

AP Writer Lorne Cook in Brussels contributed to this report.



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Nvidia CEO says U.S. data centers take 3 years, but China ‘can build a hospital in a weekend’

Published

on



Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said China has an AI infrastructure advantage over the U.S., namely in construction and energy.

While the U.S. retains an edge on AI chips, he warned China can build large projects at staggering speeds.

“If you want to build a data center here in the United States from breaking ground to standing up a AI supercomputer is probably about three years,” Huang told Center for Strategic and International Studies President John Hamre in late November. “They can build a hospital in a weekend.”

The speed at which China can build infrastructure is just one of his concerns. He also worries about the countries’ comparative energy capacity to support the AI boom.

China has “twice as much energy as we have as a nation, and our economy is larger than theirs. Makes no sense to me,” Huang said.

He added that China’s energy capacity continues to grow “straight up”, while the U.S.’s remains relatively flat.

Still, Huang maintained that Nvidia is “generations ahead” of China on AI chip technology to support the demand for the tech and semiconductor manufacturing process.

But he warned against complacency on this front, adding that “anybody who thinks China can’t manufacture is missing a big idea.”

Yet Huang is hopeful about Nvidia’s future, noting President Donald Trump’s push to reshore manufacturing jobs and spur AI investments.

‘Insatiable AI demand’

Early last month, Huang made headlines by predicting China would win the AI race—a message he amended soon thereafter, saying the country was “nanoseconds behind America” in the race in a statement shared to his company’s X account.

Nvidia is just one of the big tech companies pouring billions of dollars into a data center buildout in the U.S., which experts tell Fortune could amount to over $100 billion in the next year alone.

Raul Martynek, the CEO of DataBank, a company that contracts with tech giants to construct data centers, said the average cost of a data center is $10 million to $15 million per megawatt (MW), and a typical data centers on the smaller side requires 40 MW.

“In the U.S., we think there will be 5 to 7 gigawatts brought online in the coming year to support this seemingly insatiable AI demand,” Martynek said.

This shakes out to $50 billion on the low end, and $105 billion on the high end.



Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © Miami Select.