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Nvidia earnings could move stock 6% as AI boom and China tensions loom

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Nvidia’s earnings aren’t just about Nvidia anymore. The $4 trillion chipmaker’s quarterly financials have become a litmus test for the AI boom—and, by extension, for the whole stock market. Constituting 8% of the market cap-weighted in S&P 500 Index and with an unrivaled grip on the chips that power generative AI, Wall Street now treats Nvidia’s results more like a macroeconomic indicator than as a report card on a single company. The earnings announcement has even become a cultural phenomenon complete with watch parties

Investors are bracing for the company’s latest quarterly results due after Wednesday’s market close, with trading in Nvidia options implying expectations that the stock will move 6%, up or down—equal to a $260 billion-dollar change in Nvidia’s market value.

In the three months since the company last gave investors a quarterly update, back in May, Nvidia’s stock has surged 35%. But the tension surrounding what is already the most closely watched earnings event of the season has been ratcheted up by recent jitters over what some worry is a dangerous financial bubble in AI-related stocks. And uncertainty about Nvidia’s China business continues to loom large.

Wall Street analysts are looking for Nvidia’s Q2 revenue to surge 53% year-over-year to $46 billion, at the high end of Nvidia’s guidance, with earnings per share of $1.01. Data center sales, the crux of Nvidia’s business, are expected to come in close to $40 billion. But with Nvidia’s shares having gained so much in recent months, a miss on Wednesday, or cautious guidance tied to China restrictions, could send the stock plummeting.

Nvidia in the U.S.-China crosshairs

Nvidia may remain one of the greatest beneficiaries of the generative AI boom, but a critical part of the company’s business has also become a geopolitical football as the U.S. and China compete for technological dominance. In April, Washington began requiring export licenses for the company’s H20 chips—stripped-down versions of Nvidia’s top-of-the-line AI chips that were specifically designed to comply with the U.S. export controls that took effect in late 2022 and were tightened again in 2023. Those tighter export licenses forced the company to take a $4.5 billion charge in Q1 tied to unsold inventory and purchase commitments.

From there, things only got more complicated for Nvidia’s China business. After Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang visited President Trump in Mar-a-Lago, the White House said it would permit the company to sell H20s after all. Nvidia applied for export licenses but faced extensive delays, thanks to the tougher U.S. stance and Chinese buyers hesitating to commit to purchasing. Then, earlier this month, Nvidia and AMD struck a deal with the Trump administration to grant licenses in exchange for a 15% revenue-sharing arrangement on China chip sales. 

But, as shipments of H20 chips resumed, China began discouraging companies from buying them, expressing concerns that the information Nvidia was asking customers to submit for U.S. government review could contain sensitive information. The Chinese government also reportedly claimed it had found evidence that Nvidia’s chip might contain backdoors that would allow U.S. spy agencies to extract data on how they were being used.  In addition, comments from US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick about providing China with Nvidia’s “fourth-best chips” were considered “deeply insulting” by Chinese officials, according to the Financial Times

Finally, last week Huang announced in Taipei that Nvidia has started winding down production of the H20 chip and begun work on a more powerful successor, saying the company was working on offering a “new product for AI data centers,” modified to reduce some of its performance, as required by the United States. He said he was seeking the Trump administration’s approval to sell the chip.

“It’s up to, of course, the United States government,” Huang said. “And we’re in dialogue with them, but it’s too soon to know.”

As a result of all the uncertainty, analysts predict Nvidia will not allude to China revenue in the earnings report. 

“I suspect they will not count, nor forecast China revenue, there’s too much uncertainty involved,” said Karl Freund, founder and principal analyst at Cabrian-AI Research. 

Jack Gold, founder and principal analyst at J.Gold Associates, told Fortune that Nvidia now has two primary groups to please: stockholders and the Trump administration. “They’re caught between a rock and a hard place,” he said. “It’s a really strange situation we’re in now where the government in the U.S. actually has their hands into the pockets, into the wallets of these companies.” 

AI bubble trouble

Beyond geopolitics, Nvidia faces another challenge: growing unease that the AI boom is starting to look like a bubble. This would strike at the heart of Nvidia’s business and its stratospheric valuation—the company trades at more than 40 times its projected earnings—which rely on ever-growing demand for its powerful GPUs. Nvidia’s growth is heavily concentrated in a handful of cloud giants, including Meta, Amazon, Google and Microsoft, as well as highly-funded AI startups like OpenAI. If those companies slow spending, Nvidia could suddenly lose its biggest buyers.

“I do believe that everyone’s concerned about an AI bubble,” said Freund, though he added that those concerns have lasted for three years already. He did not, he emphasized, think it would pop now. “I think there still two to five years of growth left,” he said. 

Gold agreed, saying there were “at least several quarters, if not a couple of years of good profits” for Nvidia, but he cautioned at some point, if the market crashed, that money spent on chips would go away. 

“It concerns me,” he said. “This time, I’m sure the earnings will still be great—[Nvidia is] selling everything they can build at a ridiculously inflated prices, which is fine, if you can get away with that.” But from a broader market perspective, he added, the massive AI data center build-outs “can’t go on forever.”

That’s why, said Freund, Huang is actually working to get investor attention to shift from the data center-centric view to other areas of Nvidia’s business, including its automotive and robotics work: “That’s his game right now, how to get investors to shift to a more holistic view of AI as it moves out of the data center and into the real world.”  

But those investors are likely more interested in the here and now—what tomorrow’s numbers show. Let the watch parties begin.



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Elon Musk’s X fined $140 million by EU for breaching digital regulations

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European Union regulators on Friday fined X, Elon Musk’s social media platform, 120 million euros ($140 million) for breaches of the bloc’s digital regulations, in a move that risks rekindling tensions with Washington over free speech.

The European Commission issued its decision following an investigation it opened two years ago into X under the 27-nation bloc’s Digital Services Act, also known as the DSA.

It’s the first time that the EU has issued a so-called non-compliance decision since rolling out the DSA. The sweeping rulebook requires platforms to take more responsibility for protecting European users and cleaning up harmful or illegal content and products on their sites, under threat of hefty fines.

The Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, said it was punishing X because of three different breaches of the DSA’s transparency requirements. The decision could rile President Donald Trump, whose administration has lashed out at digital regulations, complained that Brussels was targeting U.S. tech companies and vowed to retaliate.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio posted on his X account that the Commission’s fine was akin to an attack on the American people. Musk later agreed with Rubio’s sentiment.

“The European Commission’s $140 million fine isn’t just an attack on @X, it’s an attack on all American tech platforms and the American people by foreign governments,” Rubio wrote. “The days of censoring Americans online are over.”

Vice President JD Vance, posting on X ahead of the decision, accused the Commission of seeking to fine X “for not engaging in censorship.”

“The EU should be supporting free speech not attacking American companies over garbage,” he wrote.

Officials denied the rules were intended to muzzle Big Tech companies. The Commission is “not targeting anyone, not targeting any company, not targeting any jurisdictions based on their color or their country of origin,” spokesman Thomas Regnier told a regular briefing in Brussels. “Absolutely not. This is based on a process, democratic process.”

X did not respond immediately to an email request for comment.

EU regulators had already outlined their accusations in mid-2024 when they released preliminary findings of their investigation into X.

Regulators said X’s blue checkmarks broke the rules because on “deceptive design practices” and could expose users to scams and manipulation.

Before Musk acquired X, when it was previously known as Twitter, the checkmarks mirrored verification badges common on social media and were largely reserved for celebrities, politicians and other influential accounts, such as Beyonce, Pope Francis, writer Neil Gaiman and rapper Lil Nas X.

After he bought it in 2022, the site started issuing the badges to anyone who wanted to pay $8 per month.

That means X does not meaningfully verify who’s behind the account, “making it difficult for users to judge the authenticity of accounts and content they engage with,” the Commission said in its announcement.

X also fell short of the transparency requirements for its ad database, regulators said.

Platforms in the EU are required to provide a database of all the digital advertisements they have carried, with details such as who paid for them and the intended audience, to help researches detect scams, fake ads and coordinated influence campaigns. But X’s database, the Commission said, is undermined by design features and access barriers such as “excessive delays in processing.”

Regulators also said X also puts up “unnecessary barriers” for researchers trying to access public data, which stymies research into systemic risks that European users face.

“Deceiving users with blue checkmarks, obscuring information on ads and shutting out researchers have no place online in the EU. The DSA protects users,” Henna Virkkunen, the EU’s executive vice-president for tech sovereignty, security and democracy, said in a prepared statement.

The Commission also wrapped up a separate DSA case Friday involving TikTok’s ad database after the video-sharing platform promised to make changes to ensure full transparency.

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AP Writer Lorne Cook in Brussels contributed to this report.



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Nvidia CEO says U.S. data centers take 3 years, but China ‘can build a hospital in a weekend’

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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said China has an AI infrastructure advantage over the U.S., namely in construction and energy.

While the U.S. retains an edge on AI chips, he warned China can build large projects at staggering speeds.

“If you want to build a data center here in the United States from breaking ground to standing up a AI supercomputer is probably about three years,” Huang told Center for Strategic and International Studies President John Hamre in late November. “They can build a hospital in a weekend.”

The speed at which China can build infrastructure is just one of his concerns. He also worries about the countries’ comparative energy capacity to support the AI boom.

China has “twice as much energy as we have as a nation, and our economy is larger than theirs. Makes no sense to me,” Huang said.

He added that China’s energy capacity continues to grow “straight up”, while the U.S.’s remains relatively flat.

Still, Huang maintained that Nvidia is “generations ahead” of China on AI chip technology to support the demand for the tech and semiconductor manufacturing process.

But he warned against complacency on this front, adding that “anybody who thinks China can’t manufacture is missing a big idea.”

Yet Huang is hopeful about Nvidia’s future, noting President Donald Trump’s push to reshore manufacturing jobs and spur AI investments.

‘Insatiable AI demand’

Early last month, Huang made headlines by predicting China would win the AI race—a message he amended soon thereafter, saying the country was “nanoseconds behind America” in the race in a statement shared to his company’s X account.

Nvidia is just one of the big tech companies pouring billions of dollars into a data center buildout in the U.S., which experts tell Fortune could amount to over $100 billion in the next year alone.

Raul Martynek, the CEO of DataBank, a company that contracts with tech giants to construct data centers, said the average cost of a data center is $10 million to $15 million per megawatt (MW), and a typical data centers on the smaller side requires 40 MW.

“In the U.S., we think there will be 5 to 7 gigawatts brought online in the coming year to support this seemingly insatiable AI demand,” Martynek said.

This shakes out to $50 billion on the low end, and $105 billion on the high end.



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Trump finally meets Claudia Sheinbaum face to face at the FIFA World Cup draw

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Their long-delayed first face-to-face discussion focused on next year’s World Cup — and included side discussions about trade and tariffs — but immigration was not the top issue. That’s despite Trump’s push to crack down on the U.S.-Mexico border being a centerpiece of his administration, and the driving force in the relations between both countries.

Trump has been in office for more than 10 months, and his having taken so long to see Sheinbaum in-person is striking given that meeting with the leader of the country’s southern neighbor is often a top priority for U.S. presidents.

Trump and Sheinbaum had been set to meet in June on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit in Canada, but that was scrapped after Trump rushed back to Washington early amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran.

Soccer took center stage — but tariffs still loom large

Trump and Sheinbaum sat talking in the president’s box and also appeared onstage with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the Kennedy Center for Friday’s 2026 World Cup draw. The U.S., Mexico and Canada are co-hosting the tournament, which begins in June.

A senior White House official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private meetings, said Trump, Sheinbaum and Carney met privately after participating in the draw.

Sheinbaum had said before leaving Mexico that she’d talk to Trump about tariffs that his administration has imposed on automobiles, steel and aluminum from Mexico, among other things. She said after appearing at the Kennedy Center that the three leaders “talked about the great opportunity that the 2026 FIFA World Cup represents for the three countries and about the good relationship we have.”

“We agreed to continue working together on trade issues with our teams,” Sheinbaum posted on X.

Mexico is the United States’ largest trading partner. The the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement which Trump forged in his first term as a replacement for 1994’s North American Free Trade Agreement also remains in place. But U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has begun scrutinizing it ahead of a joint review process set for July.

In the meantime, the U.S. and Mexico’s priorities have been reshaped by the steep drop in the number of people crossing into the U.S. illegally along its southern border, as well as the White House’s — so far largely unrealized — threats to impose large trade tariffs on its neighbor.

Before speaking in-person, Trump and Sheinbaum had repeatedly talked by phone, discussing tariffs and Mexican efforts to help combat the trafficking of fentanyl into the U.S. But despite other world leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, having already met with Trump this term, the meeting with Sheinbaum hadn’t happened until Friday.

The Trump whisperer?

Waiting so long to meet in person hasn’t seemed to hurt Mexico’s president’s standing with Trump.

The two spoke by phone in November 2024, with the then-U.S. president-elect declaring afterward that they’d agreed “to stop Migration through Mexico” — even as Sheinbaum suggested her country had already been doing enough.

Trump soon after taking office threatened to impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from Mexico in an effort to force that country to better combat fentanyl smuggling, only to later agree to a pause.

The White House subsequently backed off tariff threats against most Mexican goods. Then, in October, Sheinbaum announced that the U.S. had given her country another extension to avoid sweeping 25% tariffs on goods it imports to the U.S. — even as many items covered by the USMCA trade deal remain exempt.

Mexico, though, hasn’t avoided all U.S. tariffs. Sheinbaum’s country continues to try to negotiate its way out of import levies Trump has imposed worth 25% on the automotive sector and 50% on steel and aluminum.

Sheinbaum’s success at mitigating many tariffs, and other successes in the bilateral relationship, has led some to wonder if she has a special gift for getting what she wants from him.

She’s largely pulled it off by affording Trump the respect the U.S. president demands from leaders around the world — but especially a neighboring country — and by deploying occasional humor and pushing back, always respectfully, when necessary.

Sheinbaum also defused another potential point of contention, Trump’s renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to the “Gulf of America,” by proposing dryly that North America should be renamed “América Mexicana,” or “Mexican America.” That’s because a founding document dating from 1814 that preceded Mexico’s constitution referred to it that way.

Still, Mexican officials continue to work furiously to lessen the trade blow from tariffs going into 2026 — levies that could wreck its already low-growth economy, particularly in its all-important automotive sector. Sheinbaum’s government has also sought to defend its citizens living in the U.S. as the Trump administration expands its mass deportation operations.

Sheinbaum’s government also lobbied unsuccessfully against a 1% U.S. tax on remittances, or money transfers that millions of Mexicans send home every year from the United States. It was approved as part of Trump’s tax cut and spending package and takes effect Jan. 1.

Trump’s push for mass deportations

Trump has directed federal officials to prioritize major deportation pushes in Democratic-run cities — an extraordinary move that lays bare the politics of the issues. He’s also deployed the National Guard in an effort to curb crime, which has led to a spike in immigration-related arrests, in places like Los Angeles, Chicago and Washington, as well as Memphis, Tennessee, and Portland, Oregon.

The Trump administration says its priority is targeting “the worst of the worst” criminals, but most of the people detained in operations around the country have not had violent criminal histories.

Such operations often meant targeting Mexican citizens who have lived and worked in the United States for years and may face deportation to a homeland they no longer know well. It also has meant serious threats of declining remittance income, which has fallen for seven consecutive months.

The lower number of illegal U.S.-Mexico border crossings has knocked immigration off its perch as the top agenda item for the U.S.-Mexico bilateral relations for the first time in recent memory.

Mexican officials now say conversations around immigration have shifted toward cajoling countries into taking back their citizens and reintegrating them to keep them from leaving again — a major Trump administration priority around the world.

Cooperation on security

Sheinbaum has blunted some of the Trump administration’s tough talk on fentanyl and drug smuggling cartels by giving her security chief Omar García Harfuch more authority.

Mexico has also extradited dozens of drug cartel figures to the U.S., including Rafael Caro Quintero, long sought in the 1985 killing of a DEA agent. That show of goodwill, and a much more visible effort against the cartels’ fentanyl production, has gotten the Trump administration’s attention.

That’s a significant improvement. Only a few years ago, the DEA struggled to get visas for its people in Mexico, and then-President Andrés Manuel López Obrador accused the U.S. government of fabricating evidence against a former Mexican defense secretary, though he never presented evidence to back up the allegation.

Not everything has gone so smoothly, though. Trump criticized Sheinbaum for rejecting his proposal to send U.S. troops to Mexico to help thwart the illegal drug trade.

Last month, Sheinbaum said there was no way the U.S. military would be able to make strikes in Mexico, after Trump said he was open to the idea. And she has denounced U.S. strikes on boats allegedly carrying drugs in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific.

“The president of Mexico is a lovely woman, but she is so afraid of the cartels that she can’t even think straight,” Trump said earlier this year.

Sheinbaum declined to take the bait — and avoided turning up the political pressure — by sidestepping Trump’s criticism.

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Associated Press writer Chris Sherman contributed from Mexico City.



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