Black Friday and all the discounts in the period leading up to it are supposed to boost retail sales, right? Well, not so much in the UK as official statistics on Friday showed that volume-wise, they actually fell by 0.1% in November from October. Analysts had expected sales to rise by 0.4% month-on-month.
Reuters
Coming after they’d already fallen (again, month-on-month) in October by 0.9%, it wasn’t good news. The month also saw sales volumes fall as shoppers pulled back from online shopping specifically.
The Office for National Statistics figures aren’t as useful as they used to be — they frequently get revised up or down and the headline doesn’t include a value-based percentage anymore. Plus it focuses mainly on quarterly readings as it says monthly ones are too volatile.
Confused? Let’s try to make it clearer. As mentioned, sales volumes dipped marginally month-on-month despite understandable expectations of a Black Friday-driven rise.
Volumes rose 0.6% in the quarter up to and including November compared to the previous quarter (the three months to August). And the quarter was up 0.7% compared to same period in 2024.
Volumes were also down by 3% compared with their pre-Covid pandemic level in February 2020.
We’re told that clothing stores maintained a strong three-monthly performance.
Online retail grabbed a bigger share of overall sales but the numbers still dipped. The ONS said non-store retailing was down 2.9% for the month and 0.8% for the three months.
Jonathan Moyes, Head of Investment Research at Wealth Club, called it “another grim reading on the health of the UK economy. The credit for these numbers will surely go to the Chancellor, who spent much of the month running what little confidence the UK consumer had into the ground. Clearly consumers are hurting and higher taxes will only make matters worse, potentially hampering economic growth and risking an economic doom loop”.
And Jacqui Baker, head of retail at RSM UK and chair of ICAEW’s Retail Group, added: “Speculation around potential tax hikes and the wettest weather seen this year dampened retail sales in November. The drop in sales compounded a bleak start to the all-important Golden Quarter, not even Black Friday deals could entice shoppers to splurge ahead of Christmas, with the biggest fall in online.”
