• The forced resignation of FDA vaccine regulator Peter Marks has, in part, sparked anxiety in Big Pharma investors, as shares in Moderna and Novavax slide. Marks’ departure comes amid a sweeping overhaul of the Department of Health and Human Services, helmed by vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Key personnel changes within federal public-health agencies have appeared to shake investor confidence in vaccine makers. Shares of Moderna and Novavax plunged Monday following the announcement Friday that key Food and Drug Administration official Peter Marks was stepping down from his position.

The share price of Moderna plummeted more than 12% since the personnel change as of Monday afternoon, while Novavax fell about 7%. 

Marks, head of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, was a key individual in regulating and approving vaccines and other treatments, such as gene therapies. During President Donald Trump’s first administration, Marks was credited for coining the name and concept of Operation Warp Speed, the initiative to expedite the development of Covid vaccines.

The regulator’s departure comes amid sweeping cuts in the Department of Health and Human Services, which include the elimination of 10,000 positions across 28 divisions. The HHS is currently helmed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has previously espoused erroneous information about vaccines. Last week, the Senate confirmed Jay Bhattacharya, who opposed Covid vaccine mandates and lockdowns, as head of the National Institutes of Health.

Kennedy reportedly gave Marks the option of either resigning or being fired, an anonymous former FDA official told the Associated Press. Marks cited Kennedy’s spread of vaccine misinformation as one of the reasons for his resignation.

“I was willing to work to address the Secretary’s concerns regarding vaccine safety and transparency,” Marks said in his letter of resignation. “However it has become clear that truth and transparency are not desired by the Secretary, but rather he wishes subservient confirmation of his misinformation and lies.”

Big Pharma stocks responded similarly when Trump announced Kennedy as his pick to lead in November. Vaccine makers lost $8 billion in market capitalization overnight.

Moderna and the FDA did not respond to Fortune’s requests for comment. Novavax declined to comment.

Headwinds for Big Pharma

The massive overhaul within the HHS, particularly in the FDA, are a likely headache for pharmacy companies looking not only for vaccine approval, but for development, according to Myles Minter, a healthcare analyst at William Blair. Marks’ resignation signals to vaccine developers that the HHS has grown less friendly to vaccination efforts.

“This is a line in the sand that there could be some regulatory uncertainty for additional vaccines coming through the pipe,” Minter told Fortune. “And they are going to be incredibly important for Moderna.”

Shortly after Trump’s election victory, Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said the company would work with the administration using “facts and data.” Continued efforts by the Trump administration to divest in vaccine funding and spread misinformation could fracture that relationship, according to Minter.

The Trump administration plans to eliminate $28 billion in global-health funding, according to a leaked document viewed by Bloomberg and the New York Times. Those efforts include the 5,341 projects, such as HIV vaccine development, and funding to vaccine alliance Gavi. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which HHS oversees, will conduct a large-scale study to look at the connection between vaccines and autism, which has been thoroughly debunked.

“It becomes increasingly difficult for vaccine developers to interact with an administration that keeps appointing people that are clear skeptics,” Minter said. “It has been said and viewed as a potential headwind there, despite the fact that they are open to working with whatever administration is put in place.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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• Gen Z and young millennials are finding new ways to sniff out a recession beyond tightening grocery budgets and falling stocks with the #RecessionIndicator social media trend. From empty bars to spiraling tipping culture, they’re seeing warning signs as economists raise the odds of a recession to upwards of 40%. 

Gen Z and young millennials are turning to social media to share the unusual societal changes they’ve noticed—beyond tightening grocery budgets—that could signal the economy is about to crash.

“Lady Gaga making good music is a recession indicator,” TikTok user Ali Ambrose, going by @geniusgirlalert, said in a video that has racked up over 232,500 views. “People will stay complacent as long as they have food and entertainment: bread and circus. And we kinda don’t have bread.”

She’s part of the growing number of young people who are taking stock of how empty bars are and how fashion is moving into humble agrarian garb—and warning others that it’s a sign America is heading for a recession.

They’re labeling these notable shifts #RecessionIndicators.

Gen Z’s #RecessionIndicator social media trend

Each generation has developed a touchstone for an economic downturn; Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan coined the “men’s underwear index,” and Financial Literacy Diaries CEO Aaliyah Kissick recognized a “stripper index.” 

A review of dietary trends during the Great Recession of 2008 also found that the downturn reduced the consumption of snacks. Gen Z on the other hand is drawing inspiration from their own lives, finding economic anxiety in the most commonplace items. 

“We’re in Old Navy, and we’re pretty sure they’ve got some recession predictors out here,” another TikTok creator said, holding up a beige dress. “We’re starting fresh with our District 12 frock. It’s made out of a nice rough material…It doesn’t need washing that often. That is recession-core.”

Other young Americans on TikTok and across social media shared their own quirky, funny ways they’re predicting an economic bust—from items being shipped in make-shift packages, to tipping culture, to playing the harmonica. Gen Z even see going to graduate school as a #RecessionIndicator, likely as a way to delay entry into a weak white-collar labor market. 

Even young people’s willingness to have a night out on the town is waning—spending $20 on a vodka cranberry or $50 on a ride home isn’t sustainable for most. 

“The nightlife scene is basically gone,” another TikTok user said in a video. “We’re in spring, we’ve had sunny days, it’s a Friday night, there was no one in the streets by 12:45 [am]…People can’t afford licenses, people can’t afford to go out. People can’t afford drinks, people can’t afford to come home late in an Uber.” 

Gen Z might be poking fun at their financial anxieties, but the reality of their struggles is quite bleak.

About a third of Gen Z and millennials are actively concerned their finances could lead to homelessness, according to a 2024 report from fintech company Acorns. Housing costs are soaring, salary hikes and job openings have fizzled out, and junior employees tackle the constant anxiety of being laid off. 

Gen Z may be right about a looming recession

Gen Z, who are more vulnerable to high costs of living and low wages, may be feeling the clinch more than others. They’re picking up on the subtle ways life is already changing—and their downturn predictions may even be on the money.

Goldman Sachs just raised its prediction of a U.S. recession to 35%, while JPMorgan has raised the odds to 40%. Estimates have been rising as President Trump continues to wage a war on foreign imports, including a sweeping 25% tariff on non-U.S. cars, and a 10% hike on all Chinese goods. These policies are stoking fear in the hearts of economists, who have continued to wage their bets against the American economy as the costs of living are set to spike. 

About 28% of Americans anticipate that the economy next year will be in recession, up from 23% just last month, according to a recent poll from CBS News. Expectations that the U.S. economy will be “booming” or “steady” in 2026 also decreased. 

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com