For the last few years, Nike Inc. prioritized a multi-billion-dollar sneaker franchise that helped the world’s largest sportswear company reach its lofty revenue goals. Now that franchise is sputtering.
Nike
Sales of Nike Dunk, a 1980s basketball shoe worn more on the streets these days than on the court, are expected to plummet 70% over two years as new leadership dials back the company’s dependence on its classic sneakers and makes way for other fresh sneaker designs, according to new estimates from analysts at Piper Sandler.
That drastic drop signals a fundamental realignment in how Nike does business as new Chief Executive Officer Elliott Hill, a company veteran who came out of retirement to take the top job in October, tries to stage a comeback after a grim year of falling sales and corporate layoffs. One of Nike’s biggest problems: too many Dunks.
“We will return to the discipline of franchise management that I was a part of for so many years,” Hill told investors in December shortly after becoming CEO. He wants to renew the longtime Nike tactic of keeping goods just scarce enough that shoppers still clamor for more. “We’ve already started managing the inventory in our marketplaces.”
Prior to its Dunk problem, Nike had shown remarkable prowess managing its product lines, cycling in and out of fashion trends by retiring or reducing some styles in favor of others — only to bring them back when the time was right. In 2020, for example, Nike capitalized on docu-series The Last Dance, which featured Michael Jordan, with a line of retro Jordan releases that renewed the franchise.
Hill is steering Nike back toward performance shoes used in sports and training, and has vowed to reduce the size of three lifestyle sneaker lines — Air Force 1s, Air Jordan 1s and Dunks — to balance the retailer’s product offerings. Demand for these classics has waned over the past year.
Of these franchises, Dunk is set to face the “most aggressive actions,” Chief Financial Officer Matt Friend said earlier this month. A representative for Nike declined to provide additional comment on the matter.
In fiscal 2024, Dunks accounted for about 18% of Nike’s total footwear sales, or about $5.85 billion, according to the Piper Sandler estimates. Analysts predict that the business will shrink to just $1.75 billion in Nike’s next fiscal year, which begins in June.
“If you don’t innovate and become overly reliant on what’s worked, you lose share,” said Anna Andreeva, a Piper Sandler analyst who co-authored the report. Analysts examined projected sales for the fiscal year ending in May 2026 compared with estimated sales two years earlier. “That’s essentially what’s happened in the last few years. The current leadership is trying to correct it, which we think is the right thing.”
Nike Dunk had been the world’s hottest sneaker franchise under previous CEO John Donahoe. Last year, Friend told investors that Dunk represented virtually zero sales prior to 2020. A series of hit collaborations with the likes of Travis Scott and the Grateful Dead, then the rise of the black-and-white Panda Dunk, sparked a renaissance for the decades-old line.
As demand rose, Nike looked to sate consumers by releasing new Dunks constantly in every possible color combination and lined up collaborations with everyone from the Wu-Tang Clan to the Powerpuff Girls. Sneaker reseller Goat Group Inc. now has nearly 4,700 different Nike Dunks listed on its marketplace.
“Nike was putting up numbers with the Dunks,” culture magazine Complex wrote. “Nike was making these paint-by-number, every-shade-of-Pantone Dunks by the boatload, with nearly a new one coming out every week.”
By September 2023, it was among the largest sneaker lines in history and had spearheaded Nike’s growth to $50 billion in annual revenue. In the 2024 fiscal year, the Dunk business was as large as Air Force 1 and Jordan 1 combined, according to Piper Sandler data.
The strategy worked until shoppers got sick of the shoes. Last March, Regis Schultz, the CEO of Nike’s key European retail partner JD Sports, warned his investors that demand for Nike Dunk was dwindling. By June, sales were sinking.
This month, Hill said that Dunk and the other classic shoes will retain an important place in Nike’s lineup, but they’ll be a smaller part of the streetwear portfolio. He pointed at shoes like the Air Superfly and LD-1000 as prospective hot sellers. Friend added that in most regions, growth in areas such as running, training and basketball shoes nearly offset those declines in lifestyle footwear.
“The teams are taking all the right actions against those key footwear franchises,” said Hill.
Theo Paphitis, owner of lingerie retailer Boux Avenue, has filed the business’s accounts for the year to the end of March 2024 and they show turnover and gross profit falling but the operating loss narrowing. And it promised an improvement in the current year.
Boux Avenue
The company said that turnover decreased to £59.9 million from £62.6 million in the latest year while gross profit was down to £29.7 million from £30.9 million. But the operating loss was a smaller £6.6 million compared to a negative £8.8 million in the previous year. EBITDA also improved to a £5.8 million loss compared to an £8.2 million deficit the year before.
In a statement in the accounts, Paphitis said the brand made further progress during the year particularly in connection with the growth in its latest sales channel – that is the partnerships business.
It has continued to develop its partnership business with the usual suspects such as Next, M&S, ASOS and Very stocking the label. It didn’t give specific figures but said the partnerships grew “significantly” last year and have continued to strengthen further into the current year. It expects this trend to continue and is looking to extend his part of its business still more.
In the year in question, just as other retailers did, it faced external challenges that had an impact on trade, so it was “positive to see an improvement in EBITDA year one year. Progress in the current financial year will see a major step forward in the financial performance of the business”.
The company has a strong store network of 26 locations in prime shopping destinations across the UK and it’s looking to extend its portfolio in carefully targeted areas.
Last year also saw more automation and improvements in its distribution centre with greater capacity and more efficiency as well as “notable” cost savings. In fact, the company said its efficiency improved by 75% year on year during peak trading at the end of 2023 and it has seen a reduction in operating costs of around £1.5 million as a result. Efficiency gains have also continued into the current year.
Additionally, improvements in its product offering and marketing have resulted in it selling more products at full price. Combined with improved sourcing and strong supplier relationships, this has boosted its margins more recently.
The latest edition of the BDO High Street Sales Tracker (HSST) on Friday showed March “sales flatlining” in discretionary spend categories and warned the retail sector faces a challenging April.
Reuters
Actually, total like-for-like sales did grow in the five-week month — by 1.8% — but given that they were aiming to recover from a 2.2% drop in March 2024 it was clear that they’re not yet back where they were.
The anaemic rise in was also below the rate of inflation so as well as not recovering from the drop made last year, the figures are actually worse than they look because of the inflationary effect.
In-store sales grew by just 0.3% against a base of a 1.8% drop a year earlier and online sales were the primary driver of growth, increasing by 6.1%.
BDO talked of “challenges at every turn” as retailers face rising costs in April and consumer spending tightens amidst uncertainty”.
Fashion saw sales rising 3.7% for the month as a whole, but given that they’d fallen 3.2% a year earlier, the sector still only just about managed to recover those early losses.
The month actually started very weakly. But by mid-month (and as the weather improved, becoming more spring-like) sales moved into positive territory and in week four were up in double digits. Consumers were clearly influenced by the warmer weather and they bought seasonal clothes and shoes more enthusiastically.
In a matter of months, the world’s three largest fashion houses have either undergone or are preparing for major creative leadership changes.
With Matthieu Blazy expected to take over at Chanel, Demna stepping in at Gucci, and Jonathan Anderson reportedly heading to Christian Dior, luxury’s executive suites are being reshuffled in an industry facing mounting uncertainty and a growing call for reinvention.
These are not isolated moves—recent weeks have seen a steady stream of creative director departures and appointments. What does this power shift mean for the industry? Are we entering a bold new creative era, a strategic repositioning of luxury, or merely a surface-level adjustment aimed at reigniting growth? Fashion Network takes a closer look.
Matthieu Blazy, Demna, and Jonathan Anderson – DR
“This is a clear sign of a transitional period shaped by shifting consumer behavior in the luxury space. The clustering of these changes marks the beginning of a new phase in an industry deeply influenced by fashion’s breakneck pace,” said Serge Carreira, head of Emerging Brands at the Fédération de la Haute Couture et de la Mode.
After a record 22% surge in 2022, the global personal luxury goods market—currently valued at $393 billion—contracted by 1.6% in 2024, returning to 2023 levels. China’s economic slowdown initially triggered the downturn, and further pressure came from an industry-wide slump exacerbated by rising U.S. tariffs. At the same time, luxury brands are contending with deep, gradual changes in consumer expectations. Buyers lean toward experiential luxury over status purchases in an uncertain economic climate. Bain & Company says surging prices have driven 50 million high-end consumers away in just two years.
In search of turnaround strategies, most luxury houses—many reported revenue declines in 2024—have been forced to rethink their creative direction. The resulting wave of leadership changes, described by many observers as unprecedented, reflects a broader industry reckoning.
Beyond Matthieu Blazy, Demna, and Jonathan Anderson—whose rumored move to Dior has yet to be confirmed—a new generation of designers is stepping into significant roles: Dario Vitale at Versace, Miguel Castro Freitas at Mugler, Jack McCollough and Lazaro Hernandez at Loewe, and Simone Bellotti at Jil Sander are among the latest names leading the charge.
“We’re witnessing a major shift. Brands are in the midst of an identity crisis. They’ve lost sight of who their customers are, and the system is splintering. Only houses with strong DNA hold steady. The real issue, in my view, lies in the overwhelming power handed to financial and executive leadership,” said Barbara Franchin, founder and director of ITS (International Talent Support), a competition for emerging designers that featured Blazy as a finalist in 2006 and awarded Demna (born Demna Gvasalia) the top prize in 2004.
“We met them when they were just getting started. I remember Demna especially. He hasn’t changed one bit. Even then, he had a distinct vision. His strengths and struggles are still the same today,” she recalled.
At first glance, the incoming creative directors at Chanel, Dior, and Gucci appear bold, disruptive, and full of fresh energy. But make no mistake—these are not newcomers. Aged between 40 and 44, including Glenn Martens, now at the helm of Maison Margiela, they bring seasoned experience from major luxury houses. Most are internal promotions: Demna at Kering, Martens steering Diesel under OTB, and Jonathan Anderson, who recently exited Loewe—another LVMH brand like Dior.
“We were lacking creative excitement. These houses needed to move forward creatively because the spark had clearly dimmed,” said Isabelle Fine, head of womenswear at Le Bon Marché. “These are bold choices, each unique to the house. It’s creatively exciting and also makes business sense. Some of these appointments are more reassuring than others, but all are intriguing.”
Demna’s move to Gucci stirred the most controversy of the three major appointments, triggering a sharp drop in Kering’s stock the day after the announcement. Gucci, which accounts for nearly half of Kering’s revenue and two-thirds of its operating profit, has been losing steam for over two years. Critics worry that Demna—who will remain at Balenciaga until July—will continue leaning into the edgy, streetwear-driven aesthetic that made him a star, even as demand for that style softens.
As Jacques Roizen of DLG consultancy told Reuters, “In the era of superstar creative directors, designers often overshadow the brand’s legacy. They now define the aesthetic direction, positioning, and customer base.”
After two years of lackluster performance under the previous designer, Sabato De Sarno, Gucci is clearly betting big with Demna. A Bernstein note described him as having “a strong point of view—he was fashion’s golden boy from 2014 to 2020—a bold vision that works well for Gucci. The brand historically thrives when it pushes boundaries, as seen during the eras of Tom Ford and Alessandro Michele.”
“He’s iconoclastic and ironic, a great fit for a niche brand like Balenciaga, which we estimate generates less than $2.2 billion in revenue. But we’re not convinced this strategy works for a larger house. Selling exclusivity at scale is a difficult balance,” the analysts added, questioning whether Demna is the right fit for Gucci at this moment.
Chanel’s appointment of Blazy has been met with greater enthusiasm. After 35 years under Karl Lagerfeld and six more with his longtime deputy Virginie Viard at the helm, the Parisian house was due for a shift. “Chanel needed a break from the past—it hadn’t updated its creative direction in a long time. I think Matthieu will breathe new energy into the house,” said fashion stylist Tom Eerebout.
Blazy, who led Bottega Veneta for Kering, is known for his vibrant creativity and product acumen. Passionate about craftsmanship, he often collaborates closely with artisans—a trait he shares with Jonathan Anderson, whose time at Loewe emphasized a similar respect for traditional techniques. As luxury houses increasingly emphasize heritage and craftsmanship as core brand values, this blend of artistry and product innovation is a major asset.
While Blazy, Demna, and Anderson are considered some of the most inventive minds in fashion today, they also understand how to navigate the inner workings of global brands. This makes them attractive to the industry at large. “Brands are under pressure to balance creativity with commercial performance, all while staying relevant in a fast-changing market,” said Lydia King, buying and merchandising director at UK-based Liberty, in an interview with Reuters.
Still, some critics argue that these appointments reflect the luxury industry’s tendency to recycle familiar names. “It’s the same circle trading the same jobs. We keep seeing the same profiles filling the same roles, while the supply chain—on which the industry depends—is collapsing from lack of support,” said Orsola de Castro, co-founder of the Fashion Revolution movement.
“These hires expose a closed-off world obsessed with status, ignoring that fashion includes a vast range of expertise. The entire system puts all the pressure on ‘super designers’ while deeper structural issues remain unaddressed,” she warned.
“This game of musical chairs is a kind of sacrificial ritual by people unwilling to rethink failing models. We’re in a real systemic crisis. Major fashion groups are acting irresponsibly, using creative directors as scapegoats,” added philosopher Emanuele Coccia.
The recent firing of Sabato De Sarno still lingers, especially given how abruptly Gucci parted ways with him just before Milan Fashion Week in February—after only three seasons and months of praise from Kering’s leadership.
“Creative directors are being set up to fail. They’re burdened with too much responsibility, while business leaders aren’t held accountable. In any other sector, companies would replace underperforming managers,” said Coccia, a lecturer at the School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences in Paris.
“Why aren’t these powerful companies investing in young brands instead of keeping legacy houses on life support? Rei Kawakubo, for example, brings in new designers without forcing them to dream someone else’s dream. Nobody ever asked Picasso to paint like Fernand Léger,” he noted.
He offered a final thought: “Luxury groups should think more like art institutions—or at least invent new models. Maybe build cultural governance teams and stop using culture as a marketing tool.” The debate is far from over.