Politics
New poll shows Byron Donalds maintains front-runner status in GOP Primary
A new survey from a top Florida pollster shows U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds remains the clear Republican front-runner for Governor.
It also shows that knowledge of President Donald Trump’s endorsement still gives the Naples Republican near majority support in the contest.
The poll, conducted by The American Promise, shows Donalds boasts support of 38% of likely Republican voters. By comparison, 9% back Lt. Gov. Jay Collins. Azoria CEO James Fishback shows with 2% of the vote, while former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner appears with just 1%. Another 49% of voters remain unsure.
Pollster Ryan Tyson reports a 3.46-percentage-point margin of error. In a polling memo, Tyson said the poll was conducted Dec. 8-9, after the Florida Fighters political committee launched a multiweek TV campaign promoting Collins.
That’s the only on-air paid media campaign running, one Tyson estimated at $5 million to $6 million based on media spots and a reported text and mail campaign.
“The purpose of this was to test what effect this media flight had on the ballot for Governor,” Tyson said.
The results suggest there has been a boost for Collins from the ads, as a prior poll for the political committee in November showed Collins at just 1%. At the time, 43% of voters in a baseline poll favored Donalds, 2% liked Renner and Fishback still polled under 1%.
But the 27-percentage-point lead for Donalds shows the pro-Collins campaign has not dislodged the Congressman from front-runner status. He launched his own campaign before any other major candidate in the field, in March.
Tyson is formerly the pollster for Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign.
Donalds also boasts Trump’s support, which he had from the jump. Tyson tested the field with Primary voters once they were told that information as well.
In the informed poll, knowledge of the President’s backing bumps Donalds’ support up to 50%. Meanwhile, Collins drops to 7% and Fishback to 1%, while Renner remains at 1%.
A couple of candidates have cast themselves as spiritual successors to DeSantis, and Tyson’s poll published the day after the release of a Florida Fighters poll to The Floridian that shows the Governor’s backing could put Collins over Donalds in standing.
But Tyson noted that DeSantis has declined to get involved in the gubernatorial Primary. He appointed Collins to his current role, but NBC News reported key members of his communications team have provided support to Fishback.
“We did not provide a DeSantis endorsement ballot because he hasn’t made one,” Tyson wrote. “If he does, our informed ballot will reflect that new information in future tracking.”