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More than 1M Floridians will exit individual ACA plans. Those who don’t leave will pay more

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With the federal government shut down amid an impasse over Affordable Care Act subsidies, Florida policymakers are bracing for more uninsured people under the age of 65 and higher costs for those who keep coverage.

Yet with just over two weeks before open enrollment, questions loom, and answers about the way forward are in short supply.

Alexis Bakofsky, the Deputy Commissioner of Life and Health Insurance for Florida’s Department of Financial Services, painted a grim picture that could see rates increase by 34.1% year over year before subsidies are factored in.

“That’s not a typical rate we’d see for this market,” she said of the hike, which could lower enrollment by “25-30%” according to estimates she had heard.

Currently, 4.7 million Floridians have ACA individual insurance, meaning 1.4 million people could be uninsured in 2026 who had coverage this year.

Asked for data and details about who might leave the market by Rep. Hillary Cassel, Bakofsky said that information existed, but she didn’t have it handy at the meeting.

Indications are that people in better health may make up the enrollment decline, Bakofsky said, given that zero-cost policies during the pandemic “created a rapid enrollment growth,” including from people with “zero or very low claims” that kept rates “at or below medical trend.”

While she calls the market “competitive,” with four carriers or more accessible to 95% of Floridians, Bakofsky acknowledged “significant financial headwinds that are causing a meaningful decrease in competition and caused some carriers to decrease their footprint.”

“Enrollment increased ~0.4M from 2024-2025 to a total market size of ~4.6M, but is on the decline and expected to drop significantly during 2026 Open Enrollment with the expiration of enhanced subsidies & Federal Rule implementation,” read a PowerPoint presented to the House Health Care Facilities & Systems Subcommittee Tuesday.

Some providers are expected to raise prices more than average. Sunshine State Health Plan, Inc. is projecting a 51.5% premium hike. Centene and Molina each project increases of more than 40% on average due to a “more acute risk pool.”

Per the PowerPoint, subsidized policyholders (97% of the market) are “relatively immune from the increases” but “are impacted by the expiration of the enhanced subsidies” on plans purchased on the Exchange, based on how close to the federal poverty line they are.

“Subsidies are in place so a consumer won’t see the full impact of the rate increase,” she said. “The amount that they pay is subtracted from the subsidy.”

Legislators weren’t all sold.

Democratic Rep. Robin Bartleman said she expects “a ton of calls from people who can’t get insurance,” and wondered what the plan is from the Office of Insurance Regulation (OIR) and other state officials.

“This crisis is going to happen, and we’re all going to get blamed. And your office, two and a half weeks open enrollment begins, and letters haven’t gone out. Nor have you given them any warning, because if they don’t open that letter and just assume they’re getting their coverage, their 51% increase is going to renew without their knowledge and they’re not going to be able to change that. So don’t you feel you at OIR have a responsibility to gear up for this,” Bartleman said.

“You need to be doing robocalls, you need to be sending personal letters out and say, ‘Open immediately.’ So what is your plan?

Democratic Rep. RaShon Young noted that the trend could create “adverse selection” for the risk pool, specifically for minority communities.

Meanwhile, Chief Actuary Kyle Collins observed that increased “market morbidity” is creating a death spiral for the market as it was until now.

“With the subsidies expiring, members going from zero-dollar premium to a non-zero-dollar premium, what you typically see is people who need the coverage, they’re going to find that extra 20, 30 bucks. People who don’t need the coverage, they’re going to drop. And so then the average health of the remaining population is significantly worse, needing a much larger rate increase,” he explained.



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Florida Republicans rally around Susie Wiles after controversial Vanity Fair profile

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Florida Republicans are rallying around White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles after an attention-grabbing profile in Vanity Fair.

After Wiles called the article a “hit piece,” many longtime associates said she still deserves the confidence of President Donald Trump.

“Susie Wiles has been a close friend of mine for years. I’ve been proud to fight alongside her in support of President Trump since we started serving as Florida co-chairs of his campaign back in 2015,” posted Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters, who served in 2016 as co-Chair of the Florida arm of Trump’s campaign.

“Nothing can derail the great work President Trump and his team, led by Susie, have done to get America back on track. It’s not going to work. Anyone who knows Susie knows that she is a patriot, tough, and brilliant. She is the best White House Chief of Staff I’ve ever seen.”

Gruters, a Sarasota Republican, was among multiple party operatives who went to a meeting at the White House shortly after the Vanity Fair piece was published. That piece quotes Wiles through a series of on-the-record conversations, including remarks that Trump had an “alcoholic’s personality.” Wiles said many of the remarks were taken out of context.

Donald Trump Jr., the President’s son and a Jupiter resident, offered full-throated support of Wiles after the piece ran.

“When Susie took over my father’s political operation after J6, people forget how many ‘Republicans’ were treating him like a pariah. Countless operatives, consultants and elected Republicans thought my dad’s political career was over and wanted nothing to do with him. They attacked him ruthlessly and predicted that he would lose if he ran for office in 2024,” the younger Trump said.

“Not Susie. She was a loyal fighter for him from the moment she came on board. When things were tough and other supposed friends left my dad like a bunch of rats, Susie stood by his side and worked her ass off everyday to rebuild his political operation and ensure that his comeback in 2024 would be successful. When others cowered, she stood strong.”

Another source close to the White House suggested there is no rattled confidence in Wiles’ leadership.

“Susie has stood shoulder-to-shoulder with President Trump through weaponized lawfare, assassination attempts, and smear campaigns,” the source said. “She is private and doesn’t speak to the press — so the public may not understand her leadership and her relentless pursuit to deliver for President Trump and his America First Agenda.”

Meanwhile, Republican allies on the Hill rushed to her defense as well.

“Susie is a fantastic chief of staff, and she is doing a great job helping President Trump accomplish his agenda. She is smart, fearless and loyal. It’s disheartening to see the press come after her, but frankly, not surprising,” U.S. Sen. Rick Scott posted. “Vanity Fair is the same publication that writes puff pieces on antisemite Hasan Piker, who told his followers to kill me. Susie Wiles is crushing it!”

Wiles notably ran Scott’s first campaign for Governor in 2010.

Other Republicans boasting strong support in Trump circles also rushed to the Chief of Staff’s defense. U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna called herself part of “Team Susie.” Luna’s 2020 campaign for Congress was managed by James Blair, now Wiles’ Deputy White House Chief of Staff.

And U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, a Naples Republican who Trump endorsed for Florida Governor in 2026, also defended Wiles.

“Susie Wiles is a legend, a trailblazer and I’m honored to call her a friend,” he posted. “Last November, she engineered the greatest political comeback in US history and as White House Chief of Staff, she’s delivering

President Trump’s America First Agenda. Thank you for your consummate leadership.”

Meanwhile, U.S. Rep. Cory Mills, a New Smyrna Republican weathering his own scandals, also put in his support.

“Susie Wiles has done more for conservatives and American politics than anyone,” Mills posted. “She supported the greatest American comeback and has stood by President Trump through all odds. These attacks against her are a testament to her successes.”



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Ashley Moody says more Americans have died from fentanyl than have died in wars

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As President Donald Trump backs an executive order declaring fentanyl to be a weapon of mass destruction, U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody says the drug’s casualty rate exceeds that of military conflicts.

That underscores the seriousness of the national battle against traffickers, Moody said.

“Remember, we are losing more people to fentanyl than we’ve lost in wars. And this is a coordinated effort by these organizations that have more resources, more manpower, more coordination, than many nation-states,” the Plant City Republican said on “Fox & Friends First.”

More than 48,000 Americans died because of fentanyl overdoses last year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. While that’s far fewer than the 698,000 Civil War casualties, it is more in one year than died in many conflicts.

Trump’s executive order links “illicit fentanyl” with national subversion.

“The two cartels that are predominantly responsible for the distribution of fentanyl in the United States engage in armed conflict over territory and to protect their operations, resulting in large-scale violence and death that go beyond the immediate threat of fentanyl itself,” the order reads.

“Further, the potential for fentanyl to be weaponized for concentrated, large-scale terror attacks by organized adversaries is a serious threat to the United States.”

Indeed, Moody depicted how the drug apparently has been used to nefarious effects in this state.

“In Florida, for example, you would have law enforcement roll up on a gas station, and you would have … 10 people splayed out on the ground at a gas station because they were exposed to fentanyl,”  Moody said.

While we weren’t able to find a news story about 10 people on the ground due to exposure, in 2018, three people overdosed at a gas station in Seminole County.

Moody said she has “seen studies done where if you can get this airborne, it can be incredibly dangerous.”

“I’ve been given information about the possibility of this being stockpiled, and remember, only the amount of only two grains of sand,” Moody said. “Compare that to fentanyl. That’s lethal. That’s lethal. And so it’s incredibly lethal, incredibly dangerous, the likes of which we have not experienced before in terms of the death toll in our country.”



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Marco Rubio defends strikes on Venezuelan boats in briefings to Congress

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio briefed lawmakers on increasing tensions with Venezuela.

Conducting business alongside Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Rubio characterized the sinking of Venezuelan ships in the Caribbean as a “counter-drug mission.”

Between Senate and House briefings, Rubio said that mission remains “focused on dismantling the infrastructure of these terrorist organizations that are operating in our hemisphere, undermining the security of Americans, threatening and killing Americans, poisoning Americans.”

The nation’s top diplomat returned to the Hill less than a year out from representing Florida — the state with the highest concentration of Venezuelans in America — in the Senate for 16 years. Rubio served as the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee before President Donald Trump appointed him as Secretary of State.

He also had acute knowledge of the flight of Venezuelans from the regime of Nicolás Maduro, and of the impacts of the opioid crisis on the Sunshine State. A day after Trump reclassified fentanyl as a “weapon of mass destruction,” Rubio defended the force used to destroy and kill traffickers of the substance into the U.S.

“This has been a highly successful mission that’s ongoing and continued,” Rubio said. “We’re pleased to be here today to update Congress on how that’s developing and how that’s moving forward. As I said, I believe it’s our 22nd, 23rd such engagement, certainly, but at least the fourth or fifth that I’ve been involved in, and those will remain.”

While briefings were bipartisan with all members of the House and Senate, reactions differed in terms of the information received.

U.S. Rep. Gregory Meeks, a New York Democrat and ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has filed a resolution to block further strikes. He told press after the briefing that he considered the strikes an unauthorized escalation of war and questioned if fighting drugs was the ultimate goal.

“If this is about regime change, it seems to me that the administration should say that’s what it is and should come to Congress to ask for that authorization, which has not taken place,” Meeks said.

Notably, Rubio for years as Florida’s senior Senate called for Maduro to step aside. Rubio visited the Columbia-Venezuela border in 2019, after Trump in his first term announced he would not recognize Maduro as the legitimate leader of the country. During that push to isolate the regime, Rubio encouraged the Venezuelan military to defy orders and allow humanitarian trucks to reach the nation’s people.

The strikes on Venezuelan boats mark a substantial increase in pressure during Trump’s second term, and Rubio has defended the legality even as Hegseth faces increasing pressure over whether war crimes have been committed with multiple strikes.

But Florida Republicans have effusively praised the policies surrounding Venezuela.

“Dictator Nicolas Maduro’s narcoterrorist Cartel de los Soles will now have a very hard time smuggling lethal drugs, oil and illegal mining out of Venezuela,” posted U.S. Rep. Carlos Giménez, a Miami-Dade Republican. “All narcoterrorist Cartel de los Soles ships will be subject to seizure and/or destruction. The end is near.”

GOP leadership in the House also left briefings feeling confident the administration’s approach was both appropriate and grounded in law.

“As the Commander in Chief, President Trump has both the authority and the obligation to defend our homeland, and I think that’s beyond dispute,” said Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican.



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