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More CEOs want Elon Musk–style ‘moonshot’ pay packages—but comp experts are raising alarms

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The all-or-nothing moonshot pay plan was a gambit so risky even Axon Enterprise CEO Rick Smith’s wife was against it. 

But Smith had started getting antsy around 2016, as he was approaching three decades at the company, Axon compensation committee chair Hadi Partovi told Fortune. Smith was talking more seriously to the board about his succession plan, who was next to lead the company, and what he would do next. Partovi knew Smith could make a lot more money if he launched a startup than if he made Axon worth 10 times as much under his previous comp plan. 

“This is when I realized we had a real problem,” said Partovi. 

Smith thrives in high-risk, high-reward environments, so the Axon board granted Smith a near carbon copy of Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s moonshot pay plan but on a much smaller scale. The challenge to Smith was to grow the Taser stun gun and body-camera maker 10-fold over a 10-year performance period starting in 2018. From a base of $2.5 billion, Smith had to increase the company’s market cap by $1 billion to unlock each new tranche of stock options, for a total of 12 tranches and a market cap of $13.5 billion. In addition, Smith had to hit eight revenue-based operational or eight adjusted-Ebitda-based goals. During the decade he was supposed to work on achieving those goals, he would get almost nothing—no bonuses or other incentives, and his salary was about $31,000 a year.

“In full candor, my wife was against me taking on the challenge, as she saw it as just too risky,” Smith wrote in a letter to investors in 2023. But Smith blew through all the goals and each of the 12 tranches in five years—half the time the board gave him—making Smith the highest-paid CEO last year with compensation valued at $165 million. The stock price grew more than 600% between 2018 when the board offered him the moonshot and 2023. After he unlocked the 12th tranche, Smith negotiated an $88 million reduction on his next performance plan (which will keep him at Axon until at least 2030 with a goal of driving the stock to $943.75) and directed it be granted to the lowest-paid workers at Axon, showering them with surprise stock grants based on their years of tenure at the company.

“The best is yet to come,” Smith wrote to investors in his letter this year. 

What is a moonshot pay package?

Smith shooting the moon—twice, potentially—represents a resurgent breed of executive compensation that has captured the imaginations of a growing number of CEOs. Moonshot wanderlust initially kicked into high gear after Elon Musk’s groundbreaking 2017 award from Tesla, once valued as high as $56 billion before it was twice rescinded owing to a legal challenge. Moonshot grants, not to be confused with an outsize stock grant known as a “mega grant” for its sheer size, tie CEO compensation almost entirely to aggressive, seemingly impossible performance targets, explained Eric Hoffmann, vice president and chief data officer at comp consulting firm Farient Advisors. CEOs don’t get the awards unless they hit specific valuation hurdles and operational goals, he said, and the performance periods are typically five, seven or 10 years, rather than the more standard three-year period.

“It should be difficult to get these awards,” said Hoffmann. “You have to create a lot of value in order to earn these kinds of awards.”

Traditional CEO pay packages include a base salary, an annual cash bonus, and a longer-term equity incentive award often based on time and performance goals. According to compensation data firm Equilar, median compensation among S&P 500 CEOs was $17.1 million in 2024, up nearly 10% over the year prior. Moonshot awards, however, upend the traditional compensation model while also bucking the trend of billionaire tech founders like Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, Google’s Larry Page, and Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, who all held large equity stakes and focused on making them more valuable, noted Hoffmann. The key distinction is that those founders built wealth by focusing on increasing the value of their existing equity stakes, while taking minimal or no compensation, rather than seeking massive equity grants on top of their founder stakes, said Hoffmann. The moonshot model is a departure—seeking both founder equity upside plus additional compensation awards.

“This way of wealth building is different than what was used during the dotcom era,” he noted.

The upside to the moonshot is an enormous payout and a growing slice of company ownership if an executive can deliver transformational growth, but investors aren’t always wild about them, and moonshots don’t come without significant risk, said Todd Sirras, a managing director with consulting firm Semler Brossy who has advised clients on these deals. Companies are “willing to bet all of these ungodly amounts of money on one person thinking, ‘That’s the right machine we need for the factory,’” said Sirras. But there’s a fundamental flaw in this approach because people are unpredictable—unlike factory equipment.

“Human beings are terrible machines,” Sirras told Fortune. “They’re emotional. Their attention gets divided thinking about what airplane they’re going to buy. It’s more risky to invest in a human being than it is to invest in a machine because human beings break in different and unpredictable ways.”

Until now, the moonshot offers have been almost exclusive to founder-CEOs and almost always established pre-IPO, said Sirras. Semler Brossy’s database of about 80 moonshot awards includes dozens issued during the SPAC IPO boom of 2020 and 2021 that are now “dead in the water” because companies failed to meet their valuation targets, he added. 

With fewer IPOs in recent years and fewer moonshots, there are about 16 that exist among large publicly traded companies—and even fewer CEOs who have achieved maximum payouts, including Smith and Musk, according to research from Claire Kamas, a senior data analyst at Farient Advisors. Other companies that have awarded the grants include Airbnb, DoorDashOracle, ServiceNow, and RH, formerly known as Restoration Hardware, Kamas found. But the high-profile nature of the awards and the eye-popping figures associated with them are pushing board-level compensation committees that negotiate CEO pay to prepare for conversations about similar packages. 

Farient has gotten queries from compensation committee chairs who are already preparing for how they will address the situation when the CEO comes to them about a moonshot plan. In one case, the CEO isn’t a founder but a manager hired to run the company, Hoffmann noted. He isn’t a fan of moonshot awards, particularly in cases where CEOs already hold significant ownership stakes and control over their companies. 

“From a firm perspective, it is our view that these plans are generally not in the best interests of the organizations, the stakeholders, and shareholders in these companies,” said Hoffmann. “To me, a lot of these feel like a lottery ticket, a winner-take-all.”

Despite the risk, Sirras sees these awards rising in popularity again, and he sees new trends emerging: Founders are granting moonshots to their “anointed successors,” he said. Real estate platform Opendoor Technologies this month granted a moonshot potentially worth $2.8 billion and an 11% slice of the company to new CEO Kaz Nejatian. Sirras said that award looks to be the first of its kind, and the board likely offered it to Nejatian because of a blessing from Opendoor’s cofounders, Eric Wu and Khosla Ventures’ Keith Rabois. Wu and Rabois returned to the board alongside Nejatian’s hiring and invested $40 million of equity capital into the company. 

Sirras said the same trend seems to be occurring in private equity. For instance, when founders Henry Kravis and George Roberts of KKR stepped down, the firm in 2021 granted co-CEOs Joe Bae and Scott Nuttall 1.2 million shares of KKR Holdings, valued at about $75 million, as part of their promotions. That same year, Apollo Global Management granted copresidents Jim Zelter and Scott Kleinman the potential to earn more than $860 million in stock. Zelter was promoted to president in 2025, and Marc Rowan remains CEO.

In addition to controlling founders who are planning leadership transitions and “founder-anointed successors,” the new wave of awards will likely also go to leading-edge executives in scenarios in which founders are making investment decisions, said Sirras. The arms race for talent between OpenAI and Meta and the reported compensation packages Zuckerberg has offered come to mind, he added. 

“From a design perspective, the magnitude is mind-boggling,” said Sirras. He compared it to the Jurassic Park film series. “Danger increases exponentially the closer these awards get to the general executive population,” Sirras wrote in an email. Alongside moonshots for founder-anointed successors and non-successors with a major capital investment he deems “inside the T. rex fence,” the rise of “awards in non-founder companies means the dinosaurs have escaped and are heading to the mainland,” Sirras wrote. 

The awards can also prompt investors to revolt. Business payments company Corpay awarded CEO Ronald Clarke 850,000 performance-based stock options valued at $55.6 million in 2021. The award had stock price hurdles of $350 and $400 and Clarke got no long-term equity grants in 2020, 2022, and 2023. In 2024, the comp committee canceled 300,000 stock options subject to the $400 hurdle and modified the criterion for 550,000 stock options subject to the $350 hurdle to require that Corpay hit a closing stock price at or above $350 for at least three trading days by the end of 2024. Clarke achieved the modified hurdle on Oct. 23, 2024. Corpay told investors the change was meant to “align Mr. Clarke’s realized pay with that of shareholders who benefited from the increased stock level over $350 before the modification, but prior to the modification the stock had not closed above $350 for 10 consecutive days, which was the pre-modification hurdle.” In other words, the board made it simpler for Clarke to earn the stock options by reducing the target from 10 consecutive trading days above $350 to just three trading days, a hurdle he cleared shortly after the change. 

The stock didn’t hit $400 until February 2025 and is currently trading at just under $300. The company’s 2025 Say-on-Pay vote—a thumbs-up, thumbs-down nonbinding vote on executive pay—only got support from 53.5% of votes cast. Over the past 14 years, the Russell 3000 index saw average support of about 91% for pay programs. 

Corpay did not respond to a request for comment.

Axon Enterprise moonshot

At Axon, Smith’s moonshot deal differs from Musk’s in another key way: It’s open to Smith’s direct reports on down to line workers at Axon, making employees eligible for a version of Smith’s moonshot deal. Workers could give up some salary, put some of their pay at risk, and work to hit revenue targets. Plus, every employee in the U.S. got a grant of 60 performance stock units that vested according to the same milestones in Smith’s award—a move almost unheard of in corporate America. No one other than Smith was able to essentially give up all their pay, said Partovi, mostly because Smith was independently successful enough that if he didn’t cut it and got nothing, he had enough of a cushion. Roughly $75 million in employee compensation was locked up as at-risk pay so employees could take part in the moonshot. 

“I really think that was a driver behind why the company grew so fast,” said Partovi. “Any element of infighting was gone—everybody was suddenly like, ‘We’re all in this together.’”

Smith’s 2023 award went through a significant negotiation process where Partovi heard directly from shareholders about everything they didn’t like about the first plan so he could debug it. The board also attempted to legal-proof it against the type of challenge that Musk’s moonshot faced, prompting one of the compensation committee members who had socialized with Smith to resign from the committee. The board also changed the vehicle type from performance options to restricted stock, added in speed brakes that would keep Smith at Axon, and made it more difficult for Smith to hit the last few tranches. Partovi said he addressed every question from shareholders about misalignment in the plan during the board’s negotiation process with Smith. 

Ultimately, Partovi credits the moonshot deal with transforming the corporate culture around shared risk and high reward with a version of a high-stakes compensation plan rolled out to everyone at the company. In his view, it helped to eliminate dynamics where direct reports and general employees resent outsize pay for the chief executive, he said. 

“The big thing is, the CEO is taking a risk in giving up his pay, and you don’t want it to turn out to be shareholders win and the CEO wins or shareholders lose and the CEO still wins,” said Partovi. “I don’t know if grants like Rick’s make sense for everybody, but they strongly make sense for Rick Smith at Axon.”



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Hotels allege predatory pricing, forced exclusivity in Trip.com antitrust probe

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China’s hotels are welcoming record numbers of travelers, yet room rates are sinking—a paradox many operators blame on Trip.com Group Ltd.

For Gary Huang, running a five-room homestay in the scenic Huzhou hills near Shanghai was supposed to secure his family’s financial future. Instead, he and other hoteliers in China’s southeastern Zhejiang province say nightly rates have fallen to levels last seen more than a decade ago, as Trip.com’s frequent discount campaigns force them to cut prices simply to remain visible on China’s dominant booking platform.

“The promotion campaigns now are almost a daily routine,” said Huang, who asked to use his self-given English name out of concern of speaking out against Trip.com. “We have to constantly cut prices at least 15% to attract travelers. We have no choice but to go along with the price cuts.”

Trip.com has been central to China’s post-pandemic travel rebound, connecting millions of travelers with small operators like Huang. But for many hotels, visibility—and sometimes survival—comes at the expense of profits.

That dynamic is now at the heart of Beijing’s antitrust probe. Regulators allege Trip.com is abusing its market position, with analysts citing deflation across the sector as the government’s main concern. Interviews with lodging operators, industry groups and travel consultants describe a system where constant price-cutting and opaque policies are eroding profitability, even as demand rebounds.

Trip.com has said it’s cooperating with the government’s investigation. The company’s stock dove more 16% since the probe was announced a week ago. 

Revenue per room—a key hotel metric—was flat across China in 2025, even as other Asian markets saw gains, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Marriott International Inc.’s revenue per room in China fell 1% most of last year, while Hilton’s China room revenue trailed its regional peers.

The company controls about 56% of China’s online travel market, according to China Trading Desk, and has grown into the world’s largest booking site. Its dominance has helped fuel domestic tourism’s recovery—nearly 5 billion trips were logged in the first three quarters of 2025—but operators say the benefits are being offset by falling room yields.

“The market has developed unevenly and innovation is lacking due to monopolistic practices,” said He Shuangquan, head of the Yunnan Provincial Tourism Homestay Industry Association that represents some 7,000 operators. “The entire online travel agency sector is stagnating in a pool of dead water.”

‘Pick-one-of-two’

The broader challenge is oversupply and cautious consumer spending. In regions like Yunnan, hotel capacity has tripled since the pandemic, just as travelers tightened budgets. Consultants note that while people are traveling more, they’re spending less—leaving hotels slashing rates to fill empty beds and posting billions in losses.

For operators like Huang, the paradox is stark: the platform that delivers customers is also accelerating the race to the bottom. The complaints center around Trip.com’s “er xuan yi,” Mandarin for pick-one-of-two exclusivity arrangements—a practice that Chinese regulators have repeatedly vowed to stamp out.

Trip.com categorizes merchants into tiers with “Special Merchants” enjoying the most visibility and traffic, Yunnan Provincial Tourism’s He said. However, these top-tier merchants are typically prohibited from listing on rival platforms like Alibaba’s Fliggy, ByteDance’s Douyin or Meituan. Merchants who aren’t bound by these exclusive arrangements report being effectively compelled to offer the lowest prices on Trip.com’s online booking platform Ctrip, or risk facing a raft of measures like lowered search rankings.



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CEOs at Davos are buying into the agentic AI hype

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Good morning. The atmosphere here at the World Economic Forum in Davos is all about nervous excitement as the Trump administration descends on the normally quaint but currently chaotic ski town in the Alps.

President Donald Trump will be making remarks just a couple hours from now, and Fortune will be reporting live from USA House on the main promenade, with insights from government officials and chief executives during and immediately following the president’s conversation. Keep an eye on our livestream, here https://fortune.com/2026/01/21/ceos-davos-buy-into-the-agentic-ai-hype/.

Elsewhere around town, CEOs are setting their agendas for the year. Here’s what’s top of mind for a few of them:

This will actually be the year of agentic AI. The first time I heard the term “agentic AI” was at Davos last year. For all the hype around it, does the average CEO really know what it is or how to deploy it? And is AI good enough yet for agents to replace or even significantly assist human employees? The answer appears to be yes. Google Gemini head Demis Hassabis told me that Gemini 3 achieved some milestones that allow agentic AI to truly proliferate in terms of its capabilities. ServiceNow CEO Bill McDermott is also an emphatic “yes,” and says he is already using it to do things like automate his IT department (without doing layoffs, he stresses; he says he has repurposed employees instead). He thinks other CEOs are ready to do the same.

Get ready for Google glasses—for real, this time. A decade ago, Google launched its Google Glass eyewear to widespread mockery. Hassabis thinks the timing was just off; at the time there was no super app to go on the platform. AI has changed that, and Hassabis is bullish on Gemini glasses being the future form for consumer AI. Meta is betting the same thing, and OpenAI is also reportedly considering a super-device, but it doesn’t seem like either can match Gemini’s capabilities any time soon.

There’s artificial intelligence, and now there’s also “energy intelligence.” Schneider Electric CEO Olivier Blum says that nailing energy intelligence is his mission this year. By that he means he wants to capture data from various energy sources into a single “data cube,” filter it, and use agentic AI so customers can manage it all in one place to find opportunities to save power and money. “Our job is to make sure we go to the next level of energy technology to make energy more intelligent,” he told me yesterday. If he can achieve it, he sees a 7%-10% annual growth opportunity ahead.

Greenland: national panic or national security risk? I’ve heard various reactions to President Trump’s desire for a full U.S. takeover of the huge islandfrom outrage to vigorous support. If he does get his wish (which some here think is likely), could Europe retaliate by making life harder and more restrictive for big U.S. tech companies? That was one CEO’s consideration. Said another: “Clear-eyed people can agree that that is a national security concern. And having a national security concern is not just a U.S. concern, it’s also a NATO concern.” They were optimistic that the in-person meetings this week would help move the matter in a positive direction. You can follow all our Davos coverage—including Fortune live interviews today with Ray Dalio, Dara Khosrowshahi and more—right here.—Alyson Shontell

Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com

Top news

The crisis CEOs can’t ignore

The annual Edelman Trust Barometer, revealed at Davos every year, shows an “insular” mindset permeating the business world, with 70% of respondents not wanting to talk to, work for, or even be in the same space with anyone with a different world view. Richard Edelman says CEOs must adopt a sense of urgency in addressing the crisis; they need to sense that “time is running out.”

The Fortune 2026 World’s Most Admired Companies list

Fortune published the 2026 World’s Most Admired Companies this week, an annual ranking in collaboration with Korn Ferry that surveys executives, directors, and analysts across a range of industries. Apple made the top of the list among leaders in all industries for the 19th year in a row—read who else made the cut.

Netflix co-CEOs boost the case for the Warner Bros. deal

Netflix co-CEOs Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters praised the streaming company’s planned acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery during its earnings call on Tuesday, selling the deal as a boost to its streaming business and a production boost for America. Investors, however, remain worried that the deal will push Netflix away from its core business, and the stock dropped almost 5% after hours.

The markets

S&P 500 futures are up 0.19% this morning. The last session closed down 2.06%. STOXX Europe 600 was down 0.41% in early trading. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down 0.02% in early trading. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.41%. China’s CSI 300 was up o.09%. The South Korea KOSPI was up 0.49%. India’s NIFTY 50 was down 0.3%%. Bitcoin was at $89K.

Around the watercooler

What Walmart’s CEO succession reveals about the smartest time to exit by Ruth Umoh

Americans are paying nearly all of the tariff burden as international exports die down, study finds by Jacqueline Munis

The 9 most disruptive deals of Trump’s first year back in the White House by Geoff Colvin

Gen Z’s nostalgia for ‘2016 vibes’ reveals something deeper: a protest against the world and economy they inherited by Nick Lichtenberg and Eva Roytburg

CEO Daily is compiled and edited by Joey Abrams, Claire Zillman and Lee Clifford.



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Gates Foundation, OpenAI unveil $50 million ‘Horizon1000’ initiative to boost healthcare in Africa through AI

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In a major effort to close the global health equity gap, the Gates Foundation and OpenAI are partnering on “Horizon1000,” a collaborative initiative designed to integrate artificial intelligence into healthcare systems across Sub-Saharan Africa. Backed by a joint $50 million commitment in funding, technology, and technical support, the partnership aims to equip 1,000 primary healthcare clinics with AI tools by 2028, Bill Gates announced in a statement on his Gates Notes, where he detailed how he sees AI playing out as a “gamechanger” for expanding access to quality care.

The initiative will begin operations in Rwanda, working directly with African leaders to pioneer the deployment of AI in health settings. With a core principle of the Foundation being to ensure that people in developing regions do not have to wait decades for new technologies to reach them, the goal in this partnership is to reach 1,000 primary health care clinics and their surrounding communities by 2028.

“A few years ago, I wrote that the rise of artificial intelligence would mark a technological revolution as far-reaching for humanity as microprocessors, PCs, mobile phones, and the Internet,” Gates wrote. “Everything I’ve seen since then confirms my view that we are on the cusp of a breathtaking global transformation.”

Addressing a Critical Workforce Shortage

The impetus for Horizon1000, Gates said, is a desperate and persistent shortage of healthcare workers in poorer regions, a bottleneck that threatens to stall 25 years of progress in global health. While child mortality has been halved and diseases like polio and HIV are under better control, the lack of personnel remains a critical vulnerability.

Sub-Saharan Africa currently faces a shortfall of nearly 6 million healthcare workers, ” a gap so large that even the most aggressive hiring and training efforts can’t close it in the foreseeable future.” This deficit creates an untenable situation where overwhelmed staff must triage high volumes of patients without sufficient administrative support or modern clinical guidance. The consequences are severe: the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that low-quality care is a contributing factor in 6 million to 8 million deaths annually in low- and middle-income countries.

Rwanda, the first beneficiary of the Horizon1000 initiative, illustrates the scale of the challenge. The nation currently has only one healthcare worker per 1,000 people, significantly below the WHO recommendation of four per 1,000. Gates noted that at the current pace of hiring and training, it would take 180 years to close that gap. “As part of the Horizon1000 initiative, we aim to accelerate the adoption of AI tools across primary care clinics, within communities, and in people’s homes,” Gates wrote. “These AI tools will support health workers, not replace them.”

AI as the ‘Third Major Discovery

Gates noted comments from Rwanda’s Minister of Health Dr. Sabin Nsanzimana, who recently announced the launch of an AI-powered Health Intelligence Center in Kigali. Nsanzimana described AI as the third major discovery to transform medicine, following vaccines and antibiotics, Gates noted, saying that he agrees with this view. “If you live in a wealthier country and have seen a doctor recently, you may have already seen how AI is making life easier for health care workers,” Gates wrote. “Instead of taking notes constantly, they can now spend more time talking directly to you about your health, while AI transcribes and summarizes the visit.”

In countries with severe infrastructure limitations, he wrote, these capabilities will foster systems that help solve “generational challenges” that were previously unaddressable.

As the initiative rolls out over the next few years, the Gates Foundation plans to collaborate closely with innovators and governments in Sub-Saharan Africa. Gates wrote that he himself plans to visit the region soon to see these AI solutions in action, maintaining a focus on how technology can meet the most urgent needs of billions in low- and middle-income countries.



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