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Monetary policy is not about interest rates, it’s about the money supply

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The ongoing feud between President Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell centers on interest rates. This tells us more about the near-universal view of what constitutes monetary policy than it does about Trump or Powell. While Trump and Powell might quibble over the proper level for the Fed funds rate, they both think monetary policy is all about interest rates.

Trump and Powell aren’t alone. Today, central bankers organize monetary policy around the overnight interest rate set on reserves supplied by central banks. Indeed, nearly every central bank these days describes its stance on monetary policy in terms of its policy rate. It’s not surprising, therefore, that most bankers, market analysts, economists, and financial journalists also embrace the view that monetary policy is all about central banks’ policy rates. That’s why markets wait with bated breath before each central bank policy rate decision.

Why the obsession over interest rates? One reason hinges on the fact that for over the past 30 years or so, macroeconomic models are neo-Keynesian extensions of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. These put interest rates front and center. Armed with these models, economists and central bankers believe that monetary policy has its impact on the economy via changes in central banks’ policy rates.

But that’s not what monetarists, who embrace the quantity theory of money, tell us. Unlike the neo-Keynesian macroeconomic models that exclude money, the quantity theory of money states that national income or nominal GDP is primarily determined by the movements of broad money, not by changes in interest rates.

As it turns out, the data talk loudly and support the quantity theory of money. They do not support the neo-Keynesian models which are centered on changes in interest rates. Indeed, the correlations between changes in policy rates and changes in real and nominal economic activity are considerably worse than those between rates of change in the quantity of money and nominal GDP. Three recent major episodes support this conclusion.

The case of Japan

First, let’s consider the case of Japan between 1996 and 2019. Throughout this period, the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) overnight policy rate lingered at negligible levels, averaging 0.125%. As a result, most economists concluded that monetary policy in Japan was very “easy”. But monetarists, who focused on Japan’s anemic broad money (M2) growth of only 2.8% per year, concluded that monetary policy was “tight”. Which camp was right?

Japan’s inflation averaged a de minimis 0.2% per year in the 1996-2019 period. It is clear that the monetarists were correct. By focusing on the BOJ’s overnight policy rate and by ignoring the money supply, most mainstream economists completely misdiagnosed the tenor of Japan’s monetary policy.

The U.S. between 2010 and 2019

Second, let’s consider the U.S. between 2010 and 2019. During most of this decade, the Fed funds rate was held down at 0.25%. In addition, the Fed engaged in three episodes of quantitative easing (QE). Many concluded that this amounted to very “easy” monetary conditions. They warned that inflation would result. In fact, broad money growth (M2) remained low and stable at 5.8% per year. In consequence, inflation also remained low, averaging just 1.8% per year between 2010 and 2019. As was the case with Japan, interest rates turned out to be a highly misleading indicator of the stance of monetary policy. The growth in the money supply was a much better guide to economic activity and inflation than the course of the Fed funds rate.

The case of the pandemic

Third, let’s once again consider the U.S.

This time, we will examine the COVID pandemic period (2020-2024). Initially, interest rates were reduced to 0.25%, where they stayed between March 2020 and March 2022. In addition, the Fed conducted large-scale QE purchases. Because this policy mix had not caused inflation in the 2010-2019 period, the consensus of Keynesian economists expected the same results as before. By ignoring money growth, they predicted in 2020 and early 2021 that inflation would remain low. Indeed, some Keynesians predicted outright deflation. The deflationists argued that lockdowns were resulting in “weak aggregate supply,” that slow income growth was producing “weak aggregate demand,” and that unemployment, which reached 14.8% in April 2020, would remain elevated.

By contrast, monetary economists focused on the explosion of broad money (M2) growth, which averaged 17.3% per year between March 2020 and March 2022. In consequence, they predicted, as early as April 2020, that there would be a substantial inflation.

As it turned out, the monetarists were right once again. From spring 2021, inflation surged, with the U.S. CPI peaking at 9.1% in June 2022, and averaging 7.0% year-on-year between April 2021 and December 2022.

Why are the monetarists consistently correct?

In each of the major cases we present, the quantity theory of money generated the correct forecast, while the Keynesian theories, which are based on interest rates, resulted in misleading signals. Why?

The reason why central bank policy rates are a misguided mechanism for steering and forecasting the course of the economy is because interest rates are, in large part, symptoms of past money growth, not necessarily drivers of future money growth. Changes in the quantity of money, on the other hand, directly fuel spending, and therefore correctly signal the direction of spending and inflation.

When the quantity of money is increased substantially and for a sustained period, one of the first effects is that interest rates fall. But after six to nine months, business and consumer spending accelerate, and the demand for credit starts to increase. As a result, interest rates are pushed up. If the acceleration of money growth continues, inflation follows – typically after a year or so – and interest rates rise even further.

So, the first effect of faster money growth is lower interest rates, but this is only a temporary effect. The second and more permanent effect is higher interest rates. This is what happened in the U.S. during the 2020-2024 period.

Conversely, the first and temporary effect of slower money growth is higher interest rates. The second and more permanent effect is lower interest rates. This is what occurred in Japan between the mid-1990s and 2019.

By ignoring the quantity theory of money and employing neo-Keynesian macroeconomic models, central bankers are often wrong-footed. They think that by managing policy rates, they are controlling monetary policy when in reality, they are just reacting to changes in the quantity of money that occurred in a prior period.

For example, the Fed refused to raise rates in 2020 or 2021, asserting that inflation was “transitory”. The Fed only reluctantly started to raise rates in mid-2022. But the excess money creation the Fed had engineered in 2020-2021 generated inflation that peaked at 9.1% per year and forced the Fed to raise rates to 5.5%. If the Fed had refrained from letting the money supply surge in 2020-2021, the steep rate hikes would not have been needed, as evidenced by the experience of China and Switzerland, countries that did not allow excess money growth to occur during the COVID pandemic.

Monetary policy’s Holy Grail is money, not interest rates.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.



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Apple won’t be the same in 2026 as these rising stars follow its biggest executive exodus in years

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Apple is experiencing the most extensive leadership transformation since its visionary CEO and cofounder Steve Jobs died in 2011, with a wave of departures across artificial intelligence, design, legal, operations, and financial divisions that will reshape one of the world’s most valuable companies.

The iPhone maker announced last week that Lisa Jackson, its vice president of environment, policy, and social initiatives, will retire in January, while Kate Adams, who has served as general counsel since 2017, will retire late next year. These departures follow a cascade of recent exits including AI chief John Giannandrea, who announced his retirement this month, and Alan Dye, the head of user interface design since 2015, who left to join Meta. Bloomberg also reported that Johny Srouji, Apple’s chief chip architect for Apple Silicon, is mulling an exit, but the 61-year-old executive threw cold water on those rumors Monday, saying “I love my team, I love my job at Apple” in a memo to staffers.

Speaking of Meta, Mark Zuckerberg’s social media empire has been the beneficiary of Apple’s exodus. Billy Sorrentino, another senior design director, chose to leave for Meta with Dye, and Ruoming Pang, who headed Apple’s AI foundation models team, also left for Meta in July, taking approximately 100 engineers with him. Ke Yang, who led AI-driven web search for Siri, and Jian Zhang, Apple’s AI robotics lead, also left for Meta this year.

But perhaps the biggest change at the top this year has been Chief Operating Officer Jeff Williams, who decided to retire in July after 27 years with Apple. He was long considered the top candidate to succeed CEO Tim Cook. Also this summer, CFO Luca Maestri stepped back from his role to instead oversee corporate services starting in the new year, while Kevan Parekh took over as CFO.

Succession planning and Tim Cook’s future

The scale of the turnover has been striking, but the timing appears connected to succession planning. Both Bloomberg and the Financial Times have reported that Apple is ramping up efforts to prepare for Cook, who turned 65 in November, to potentially retire in 2026. He has led the company since 2011 and grown its market cap from roughly $350 billion to $4 trillion.

John Ternus, Apple’s senior vice president of hardware engineering, has emerged as the leading internal candidate to replace Cook. Ternus, 50, joined Apple’s product design team in 2001 and has overseen hardware engineering for every generation of iPad, the latest iPhone lineup, and AirPods. He played a crucial role in the Mac’s transition to Apple silicon.

The choice of Ternus would mark a departure from Apple’s recent operational focus under Cook. While Cook and Williams both had operational backgrounds with expertise in global supply chains, Ternus brings technical hardware expertise. His selection would signal that Apple is prioritizing product innovation as it faces challenges in new categories like the Vision Pro and competition in artificial intelligence.

Apple’s new AI leadership

Apple is bringing in Amar Subramanya, a veteran of both Google and Microsoft, to lead its AI efforts. Subramanya spent 16 years at Google, eventually becoming head of engineering for Google’s AI assistant Gemini, before a brief stint at Microsoft as corporate vice president of AI. He will oversee Apple Foundation Models, machine learning research, and AI safety, reporting to software chief Craig Federighi.

Subramanya’s hire signals Apple’s determination to accelerate its AI capabilities after falling behind competitors like Google and OpenAI. His experience building large language models at Google positions him to help Apple develop competitive generative AI products, a critical battleground for tech companies in the coming years.

Apple’s new design leadership

On the design front, Stephen Lemay is replacing Dye as the head of user interface design. Lemay has been with Apple since 1999 and played a key role in designing every major Apple interface from the original iPhone to the latest operating systems.

The promotion of Lemay has reportedly been met with enthusiasm inside Apple. Blogger and podcaster John Gruber, who has covered Apple for decades and has deep ties within the company, wrote that employees are borderline “giddy” about Lemay taking over.

“Sources I’ve spoken to who’ve worked with Lemay at Apple speak highly of him, particularly his attention to detail and craftsmanship,” Gruber wrote. “Those things have been sorely lacking in the Dye era.”

This internal promotion contrasts sharply with how Dye’s departure was received. Dye had overseen UI design for a decade but faced internal criticism over design direction and product quality. Lemay’s appointment represents a return to the company’s design-first philosophy that characterized Apple’s earlier innovation phases.

Apple’s new operations and supply chain leadership

Sabih Khan, who has been with Apple for 30 years, took over as chief operating officer in July, succeeding Williams. Khan joined the executive team as senior vice president of operations in 2019 and has overseen Apple’s global supply chain for the past six years. Khan will also now oversee environment and social initiatives, taking on some of Lisa Jackson’s former responsibilities.

Khan’s appointment represents continuity in operations while consolidating responsibilities across the executive suite. His deep knowledge of Apple’s manufacturing and logistics networks positions him to navigate ongoing supply chain challenges, particularly as the company diversifies production beyond China.

Jennifer Newstead, currently Meta’s chief legal officer and a former legal adviser to the U.S. State Department, will become Apple’s general counsel on March 1, 2026. In a consolidation of responsibilities, Newstead will oversee both legal and government affairs, effectively merging the roles previously held by Adams and Jackson.

Newstead brings significant international law and regulatory expertise at a critical time for Apple. The company faces increasing scrutiny from antitrust regulators worldwide, particularly in the European Union and the United States. The Justice Department and 16 attorneys general filed an antitrust suit against Apple last March, alleging the company’s policies hamper competition and make it difficult for consumers to switch phones. A trial date is not yet set, but suffice to say Newstead’s work will be cut out for her once she starts.

Her appointment underscores Apple’s focus on navigating complex regulatory environments while addressing regulatory challenges around AI development and data privacy. Her experience in government affairs at Meta, where she managed relations with policymakers globally, makes her well-suited to handle Apple’s expanding regulatory obligations.

Apple’s new financial leadership

Kevan Parekh assumed the chief financial officer role on January 1, 2025, replacing Luca Maestri, who had held the position since 2014. Parekh brought deep familiarity with Apple’s financial operations, having worked in the company’s finance division previously. His transition to CFO continues Apple’s pattern of promoting experienced insiders to top roles, though his tenure also reflects the company’s need for steady financial stewardship amid market volatility and shifting investor expectations.

Apple’s inflection point

The departures span functions critical to Apple’s competitive position. Beyond the visible departures, Apple has lost significant talent in AI research to its competition in Silicon Valley, namely Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI. Apple is attempting to address this through high-profile hires like Subramanya, but the scale of departures suggests internal friction or strategic shifts that pushed executives to explore opportunities elsewhere.

The consolidation of responsibilities—particularly having Newstead oversee both legal and government affairs, and Khan handling operations and environmental initiatives—suggests Apple is also tightening its executive structure. This could be driven by cost considerations or by a desire to create clearer lines of authority as the company prepares for potential leadership transitions.

Despite the upheaval, Apple is positioning these changes as strategic rather than reactive. The transitions of Williams, Maestri, and others were described as “long-planned successions” in company announcements. Cook has publicly praised the incoming leaders and emphasized continuity, even as Apple assembles what amounts to an entirely new leadership team for its next chapter.

Cook himself remains a question mark. While some reports suggest he could retire in 2026, the executive has been adamant about his plans. In January, Cook told CNBC he would never retire, at least in “the traditional way,” adding he would “always want to work.” Still, all the reliable reporting since that on-air interview points to scenarios in which Cook will step back from day-to-day operations.

Looking ahead

Whether this new generation can maintain Apple’s innovation momentum while navigating AI competition, regulatory pressure, and the eventual departure of Cook himself remains the defining question for the company’s future. The success of Ternus, Newstead, Lemay, Khan, and Subramanya will determine whether Apple can accelerate its AI capabilities, maintain design excellence, navigate regulatory challenges, and sustain the company’s position as one of the world’s leading tech companies.

The changes also reflect a shift in Apple’s strategic priorities. Under Cook, the company has excelled in operational efficiency and global supply chain management. But under Ternus—if he indeed becomes CEO—the company may place greater emphasis on hardware innovation and product differentiation, particularly in emerging categories where AI and design intersect.

The appointment of Subramanya to lead AI, combined with the return of Stephen Lemay to design, suggests Apple is doubling down on what made it successful in the first place: breakthrough products with cutting-edge technology with thoughtful design.

It all suggests 2026 will be a pivotal year for Apple, which is expected to accelerate its AI efforts, roll out new phone designs, and fend off regulators to secure long-term positioning in the rapidly changing landscape.

For this story, Fortune journalists used generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. 



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Paramount launches WBD hostile bid that includes Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner

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In a separate regulatory filing, Paramount disclosed that Affinity Partners, the private equity firm led by Jared Kushner, is part of the bid. It added that sovereign wealth funds from Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, and Qatar are also participating.

Affinity and the other outside financing partners have agreed to forgo any governance rights, which Paramount said means the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States would have no jurisdiction over the transaction. Meanwhile, Chinese tech conglomerate Tencent is no longer a partner.

The offer comes after Paramount lost out in the bidding war for the assets last week to Netflix, which made a cash-and-stock deal worth $27.75 per share. Paramount’s proposed transaction is for the entirety of WBD, including the Global Networks segment, while Netflix’s deal is for the studio and HBO Max.

Paramount argued its offer to WBD shareholders provides a superior alternative to the Netflix transaction, which offers “inferior and uncertain value and exposes WBD shareholders to a protracted multi-jurisdictional regulatory clearance process with an uncertain outcome,” referring to the likely antitrust concerns for Netflix’s megadeal.

At the Kennedy Center over the weekend, President Donald Trump partially confirmed reporting from Bloomberg’s Lucas Shaw about his private conversations with Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos, saying they had met in the Oval Office before Netflix announced its winning bid, while adding that its combined market share with WBD could be an antitrust concern.

Paramount argued that WBD’s recommendation of the Netflix offer is based on an “illusory prospective valuation of Global Networks that is unsupported by the business fundamentals” and encumbered by high levels of financial leverage assigned to the entity. Netflix’s offer would assume $11 billion of debt and involve a $59 billion bridge loan, which Bloomberg reported was among the highest ever.

David Ellison, chairman and CEO of Paramount, said: “WBD shareholders deserve an opportunity to consider our superior all-cash offer for their shares in the entire company.”

Paramount, which earlier sent a letter to WBD CEO David Zaslav complaining of a “tainted” sale process, further asserted today that although Paramount made six offers for WBD over 12 weeks, “WBD never engaged meaningfully with these proposals, which we believe deliver the best outcome for WBD shareholders.

“We believe our offer will create a stronger Hollywood. It is in the best interests of the creative community, consumers, and the movie theater industry. We believe they will benefit from the enhanced competition, higher content spend and theatrical release output, and a greater number of movies in theaters as a result of our proposed transaction,” Ellison continued. “We look forward to working to expeditiously deliver this opportunity so that all stakeholders can begin to capitalize on the benefits of the combined company.”

Paramount’s tender offer is scheduled to expire at 5 p.m. ET on Jan. 8, 2026. The company said its offer will be financed by new equity backstopped by Paramount’s well-capitalized principal equity holders, and $54 billion of debt commitments from Bank of America, Citi, and Apollo.

Centerview Partners and RedBird Advisors are acting as lead financial advisors to Paramount, and Bank of America Securities, Citi, and M. Klein & Co. are also acting as financial advisors. Cravath Swaine & Moore and Latham & Watkins are acting as legal counsel to Paramount.

Disclosure: The author worked at Netflix from June 2024 through July 2025.



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Craigslist founder signs the Giving Pledge, and some of his fortune will go to a pigeon rescue

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Of the wealthiest people in the world, about 250 have pledged to give away the majority of their fortune—an effort coined the Giving Pledge. It was started by Bill Gates, Melinda French Gates, and Warren Buffett in 2010, and billionaires including Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, Larry Ellison, and Bill Ackman have signed on. 

Although it’s often also referred to as the “Billionaire’s Pledge,” other wealthy donors have committed to the endeavor. One of the latest signatories is Craigslist founder Craig Newmark, who announced on LinkedIn this weekend he’s officially joining the Giving Pledge.

“Okay, I’ve formally signed up for the Giving Pledge, sometimes considered the Billionaire’s Pledge, though I’ve never been a billionaire, particularly after I gave away all my Craigslist equity to my charitable foundation,” Newmark wrote. “Seems like a good way to officially enter my middle seventies, which I’ve done today.”

Newark built his fortune by founding popular online marketplace Craiglist in 1995. It started as an email list for local San Francisco residents, but turned into an online classifieds page the following year. Today, Craigslist is estimated to be worth about $3 billion

“This all feels like a follow up to my decision in early 1999 to monetize Craigslist as little as possible,” Newmark said of signing Giving Pledge. “The best estimate so far is that I turned down around $11B that bankers and VCs wanted to throw at me. I still made plenty after that.”

In 2020, Forbes estimated Newmark’s net worth at $1.3 billion, although in 2022 he said he’d give away most of his fortune to charitable causes. There aren’t more recent estimates of his net worth, but he emphasized in his LinkedIn post he is not a billionaire.

His foundation, Craig Newmark Philanthropies, mostly supports cybersecurity and veterans causes. And in his post committing to the Giving Pledge, Newmark said he’d continue making similar donations. 

“My focus is where I can do some actual good in neglected areas, like for military families and vets, like fighting cyberattacks and preventing scams,” he wrote. “Also, a little for pigeon rescue.”

Wait, what?

Newmark is also dedicated to rescuing pigeons. 

“I love birds, have a sense of humor, and I suspect that pigeons may become our replacement species,” he told the Associated Press in 2023.

His favorite neighborhood pigeon is named Ghostface Killah, who is featured in a painting on his mantle at home. 

He said he developed his love for pigeons in the mid-1980s when he lived in Detroit. Pigeons are “the underdog,” he told NYU’s student newspaper Washington Square News

“They’re the grassroots, most prominent bird and possibly our successor species,” Newmark said. “But pigeons are, well, I identify with them as well. I grew up with no money, living across the street from a junkyard.”

Early this year, Newmark donated $30,000 to San Francisco-based pigeon rescue Palomacy, which was the largest donation the organization had ever received. 

“Craig Newmark is many things: the founder of craigslist, an ‘accidental entrepreneur,’ a self-proclaimed old-school nerd, a full-time philanthropist and a life-long lover of pigeons,” Palomacy said in January. “We so appreciate the support they provide our feathered friends.”

With Newmark’s donation, Palomacy can continue to “save hundreds of pigeons and doves through hands-on rescue, rehabilitation, and rehoming in Northern California,” according to the organization. “We are reversing the unfair stigma against pigeons and showing the world they deserve our respect and protection.”

Recent criticisms of the Giving Pledge

Although there undoubtedly are some billionaires and other high-net-worth individuals who are genuinely committed to the Giving Pledge, there has been recent criticism many of the signatories aren’t living up to the pledge. Even Melinda French Gates, one of its founders, recently said people could be doing more. 

“Have they given enough? No,” she said in a recent interview with Wired.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week also called the Giving Pledge a failure—but for different reasons. He said it was “well intentioned,” but was “very amorphous” and claimed wealthy people made the commitment out of fear that the public would “come at it with pitchforks.” Bessent also pointed out that not many billionaires have actually delivered on their promise to donate their fortunes. 

Warren Buffett, another Giving Pledge founder, also recently admitted he had to rethink some of his original philanthropic plans.

“Early on, I contemplated various grand philanthropic plans. Though I was stubborn, these did not prove feasible,” he wrote in a recent letter to shareholders. “During my many years, I’ve also watched ill-conceived wealth transfers by political hacks, dynastic choices, and, yes, inept or quirky philanthropists.” 

Several studies have also poked holes in the Giving Pledge, showing how it’s benefitted billionaires by presenting themselves as generous and public‑spirited, but doesn’t question inequalities and tax rules that led to such massive wealth in the first place.

The Institute for Policy Studies (IPS) argues the Giving Pledge is “unfulfilled, unfulfillable, and not our ticket to a fairer, better future.” 

To be sure, many wealthy signatories like Newmark appear to be genuinely committed to the cause. 

“Like I say, a nerd’s gotta do what a nerd’s gotta do, and a nerd should practice what he preaches,” Newmark wrote over the weekend.





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