Connect with us

Business

Millennials choosing to be DINKs could push GDP down by as much as 4%

Published

on



Deciding whether or not to have children is a deeply personal choice for any individual, but an increasing resistance to becoming a parent now presents challenges to society as a whole.

The crude birth rate in the U.S. has dropped by more than half since the 1960s. Per the St. Louis Fed, sixty years ago approximately 24 babies were born per 1,000 people, in 2022 that figure stood at 11.

This drop—combined with the fact that the nation’s population is living longer—is a serious concern for economists who question how economies will function with fewer people available to do the work.

Melinda Mills is a professor of demography and population health at Oxford University’s Nuffield Department of Population Health. Mills explains: “Sustained low fertility combined with longer life expectancy results in aging populations.

“This causes strains in the labor market such as health care for older populations, the closing of schools, rethinking housing and infrastructure, and rethinking pension systems and age of retirement.”

The resulting drop in GDP from this aging population could be as much as 4%, James Pomeroy, HSBC’s global economist, previously told Business Insider.

Are Americans having fewer kids?

Previously experts believed that economies would see a post-COVID “baby bump,” spurred by a brief uptick in births in 2021.

But data from 2022 and 2023 made it clear births were reverting back to their pre-pandemic trend with couples increasingly choosing a dual-income-no-kids (DINK) lifestyle, as the CDC reported last year that in 2023 U.S. fertility rates fell to a historic low of about 55 births for every 1,000 females ages 15 to 44.

“In a low-fertility scenario, the number of people of the traditional working age could start falling within 20 years,” Pomeroy wrote in his latest note on the subject, though Mills warned the tension between fewer births and an older population is already being felt.

She explained many countries are already struggling to fill health care positions, which previously had relied on migrant workers to fill.

“This has happened in the U.K., for instance where in 2022 around 33% of migrants were to work in the health care system,” Mills, director of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, told Fortune.

“This has also caused political tensions, with countries increasingly facing choices related to sustaining the labor force and pension systems while also thinking about reskilling or urging existing inactive populations into the labor market.”

For HSBC’s Pomeroy, this will have concrete efforts on people’s daily lives: “You’ll find it more difficult to find somebody to cut your hair, do your nails, set up the X-ray machines at the hospital. The sheer decrease in the number of people…becomes a problem.”

What are millennials having fewer children?

Young people have plenty of reasons not to want kids right now: expensive childcare, an unaffordable housing market, high costs of groceries and household essentials, career disruption, and concerns for the future of the planet.

A Pew Research study from July 2024 spoke to more than 3,000 people who either haven’t had children or don’t plan to.

Of those aged between 18 and 49—who fall predominantly into the Gen Z and millennial generations—who said they didn’t plan on having children, the top reason is simply that they didn’t want to or wanted to focus on other things.

Additionally, 38% said they didn’t want to have children because they were concerned about the state of the world, and 36% said they couldn’t afford to raise a child.

A further 26% said they didn’t want to have children because of environmental concerns and 24% said they wouldn’t have children because they hadn’t found the right partner.

One factor impacting birth rates is also women’s increasing power and influence within the economy.

Mills explains: “The main reasons are manifold, including shifts such women obtaining higher education and remaining in the labor market, work-family reconciliation, but also housing problems, gender equality, and uncertainty for the future.

“The age at first birth is also above 30 in many countries for women and even higher for men at 32 and older. This also causes increasingly biological limits of fertility.”

Couple ask if they can have a career and a baby

Another consideration for many DINK couples is the freedom they can enjoy in their careers if they don’t have the pressure of children to provide for.

Heather Maclean and her husband Scott Kyrish told Fortune in 2023 that the choice not to have children has allowed them to have a “rose and gardener” approach to their careers—the idea that while one person can grow and take risks, the other remains the stable supporter.

“I never thought I’d quit my job to try and write a book. It was never something I saw as an option,” Maclean said.

“But then I took the time to think about what I really wanted to do if I could do anything, and it took a lot of convincing and months of assurances that I could take the time off and afford it, to decide to do it.”

A version of this story originally published on Fortune.com on Nov. 19, 2024.

More on success:

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Europe targets Apple and Google in antitrust crackdown, risking fresh Trump tariff clash

Published

on

In a move that risks enraging the Trump administration, the European Commission has announced major antitrust enforcement decisions against Google and Apple.

The EU’s executive body on Wednesday said Google parent Alphabet had almost certainly broken the bloc’s Digital Markets Act, a year-old competition rulebook for Big Tech, in multiple ways. If it finalizes these preliminary findings, Google could be in line for fines that theoretically run as high as 10% of global annual revenues.

The Commission also ordered Apple to comply with the DMA by making the iPhone more easily and effectively interoperable with third-party devices such as smartwatches, headphones, and TV sets. This is the first time the Commission has given a company specific measures that it must take to comply with this law.

President Donald Trump last month threatened to lob tariffs at anyone who dares to fine or enforce tech rules against U.S. companies in ways that his administration thinks are discriminatory. (He has already triggered a tariff war with Europe and the rest of the world regarding steel and aluminum imports, and has threatened further tariffs on European alcohol.)

Vice President JD Vance has also hit out at European tech regulation, and Meta and Apple—both of which face separate EU antitrust decisions as soon as this month—have complained to Trump about being picked on in Europe.

The Commission’s preliminary findings about Alphabet’s DMA non-compliance are about two long-running issues.

The first relates to Google search results promoting other Google services, like shopping, hotel booking, and financial results, to the detriment of third-party competitors—either by putting the Google services at the top of the results, or by displaying them in eye-catching dedicated spaces. The EU already fined Google $2.7 billion for similar self-preferencing eight years ago, but now it has a new law to wield.

The second finding is about Google not allowing developers who distribute their Android apps through Google Play to tell customers about cheaper deals that they can get off Google’s platform, and to freely steer them there. The Commission also said Google is charging developers too much for onboarding new customers. Again, Google already received a $5 billion EU antitrust fine for Android abuses back in 2018, but that was about preinstalled services on Android phones; the newer case is specific to the rules in the DMA.

“The two preliminary findings we adopt today aim to ensure that Alphabet abides by EU rules when it comes to two services widely used by businesses and consumers across the EU, Google Search and Android phones,” said Competition Commissioner Teresa Ribera.

As for Apple, the company will now have to heavily change its ways to comply with the DMA.

For example, Apple has long made life difficult for rival smartwatch makers by ensuring that users of their products can’t reply to notifications coming in from their iPhones. (Pebble founder Eric Migicovsky, who has just revived his discontinued smartwatch under the Core brand, wrote a blog post about his Apple frustrations just this week.)

Apple will now have to fix that, and it will also have to allow for easier pairing and better data connections with third-party headphones and virtual-reality headsets. Developers will also get new opportunities to integrate file-sharing and streaming capabilities in their iPhone apps. And Apple will have to give developers more transparent and timely information when they want to make their products and services interoperable with the iPhone and iPad.

“Today’s decisions wrap us in red tape, slowing down Apple’s ability to innovate for users in Europe and forcing us to give away our new features for free to companies who don’t have to play by the same rules,” Apple said in an emailed statement. “It’s bad for our products and for our European users. We will continue to work with the European Commission to help them understand our concerns on behalf of our users.”

Google, meanwhile, complained that the Commission’s findings would “make it harder for people to find what they are looking for and reduce traffic to European businesses.”

The Commission officials who announced Wednesday’s decisions took great care to imply that nobody was being treated unfairly on the basis of their American-ness.

Although Apple complained that it was being singled out by the Commission’s latest move, Ribera stressed that the Commission was “simply implementing the law” with its Apple decisions. Similarly, tech commissioner Henna Virkkunen emphasized that Alphabet’s alleged misdeeds “negatively impact many European and non-European businesses.”

That is unlikely to placate the U.S. leadership, whose response is now keenly awaited.

After all, Apple also claimed that the new interoperability requirements force it to give away its intellectual property to competitors. And Trump’s memorandum last month specifically said that rules designed to “transfer significant funds or intellectual property from American companies to the foreign government or the foreign government’s favored domestic entities” would trigger U.S. tariffs.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Bitcoin is at its lowest price since November. Here’s what analysts say about buying the dip

Published

on



Bitcoin had a strong start in 2024, reaching an all-time high in January following interest rate cuts and the federal government’s embrace of the crypto industry. But all of those gains have been decimated over the past few weeks. And while that’s tough news for many digital asset holders, the decline has prompted some investors to wonder: is now a good time to buy the dip? 

Despite the industry’s seemingly favorable prospects under President Donald Trump, Bitcoin has dumped nearly 30% of its value since he took office, falling to a low of $78,000 earlier this month. Even as Trump follows through on a number of crypto-related promises—including establishing a national Ethereum exchange-traded funds, tells Fortune. “But I think that’s created this opportunity for investors.”  

To invest or not to invest?

The fact that Bitcoin has dipped does not mean that everyone should start buying crypto. In fact, digital assets have many detractors, who point to its recent arrival on the financial scene, volatility, and history of scams. 

“My position is that cryptocurrencies are impossible to value,” Artie Green, a certified financial planner from California, told Fortune. “We can determine the value of stocks, bonds, BDCs, etc. but cryptocurrencies are purely speculative.” 

He advises anyone interested in crypto investing to take stock of their finances first, make sure they have a buffer for unexpected expenses, and only invest excess funds. “The only way I would recommend buying Bitcoin is if you first create a comprehensive financial plan that determines how much money you will need to pay for all your living expenses & goals for the rest of your life, he said. 

For people who do want to invest, there are several factors to consider before actually making a purchase, including technical sophistication and risk appetite. Those who don’t want to be involved in active trading should consider an exchange-traded fund (ETF)—a financial product sold on the traditional stock market which tracks the asset’s price. Major institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity offer Bitcoin ETFs to investors, but there are also crypto-specific ETF issuers like Grayscale and Bitwise. 

“There are lots of ways to invest in Bitcoin and crypto, and there are no necessarily wrong answers,” says Zach Pandl, managing director of research at crypto asset manager Grayscale. “Investors should first consider their own circumstances before making that decision.”

For people who want to actively trade their crypto, owning Bitcoin directly through a crypto exchange gives investors more flexibility and control over their holdings. Crypto exchanges like Kraken and Coinbase allow investors to buy, sell, trade and store their crypto, but the exchange maintains control of investors’ assets for them. The downside is that investors are more vulnerable if an exchange mismanages its funds like FTX, or is hacked like ByBit

Self-custody wallets like Metamask or Coinbase Wallet allow investors to actively use their crypto in trading and maintain control of their assets. However, this requires an understanding of blockchain technology. And there is the added problem of remembering logins: there is no “forgot my password” option to retrieve the funds. 

How much should you invest in Bitcoin?

People who do want to buy Bitcoin should think carefully about how much they want to invest. 

Crypto analysts and financial advisors have varying opinions on this topic. BlackRock, one of the world’s largest traditional asset managers, recommends that investors allocate no more than 2% of their portfolio to Bitcoin, saying that this amount maximizes returns while limiting the risks associated with volatility. 

Crypto-focused investment platforms, however, are more liberal, arguing Bitcoin is a great addition to an investment portfolio because it acts as a diversifying asset therefore, investors should allocate a larger percentage of their portfolio to the currency. Grayscale, a crypto ETF issuer, recommends allocating 5% and Swan, a Bitcoin-focused investment firm, recommends allocating up to 10% to Bitcoin. 

And moving forward, some crypto-watchers believe that the current dip won’t last much longer. James Butterfill, the head of research at crypto asset manager CoinShares, expects the currency to stabilize soon. 

“We’re getting close to that peak bearishness,” he said, adding that Bitcoin “seems to be showing quite a lot of resistance at around the $80,000 level.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Ellen Pompeo says when news of her $575,000-an-episode Grey’s Anatomy salary broke, her manager warned her to get ready to be unpopular

Published

on



  • Ellen Pompeo believed her $20 million annual salary on Grey’s Anatomy to be celebrated as a win for equal pay, but was warned before her 2018 Hollywood Reporter interview went live that not everyone would support her success. Pompeo highlights the double standard in how women’s earnings are scrutinized compared to men’s, while emphasizing the importance of using her financial power to uplift others.

When Grey’s Anatomy star Ellen Pompeo confirmed she was being paid more than $20m a year for her work on the show, she hoped it would be celebrated as evidence of equal pay coming to Hollywood.

However, before The Hollywood Reporter interview—which revealed Pompeo’s $575,000 an episode income, plus a seven-figure signing bonus and equity points in the series estimated to be worth $13m—went live, Pompeo was warned by her manager that she may not get exclusively positive feedback.

At the time, Pompeo told the Reporter the deal had been struck as she took on the solo lead role of the medical drama, named after her character.

“I’ve finally gotten to the place where I’m OK asking for what I deserve,” Pompeo said at the time.

But in a recent podcast interview with Alex Cooper’s ‘Call Her Daddy’, Pompeo reflected that she hadn’t considered her success wouldn’t be celebrated by her peers.

She explained: “My manager said at the time something to me that literally hit me like a brick. He said: ‘Are you ready to be unpopular?’ He was like: ‘I don’t want you to think that everyone’s going to go in and cheer for you and clap for you and bow to you, and think you’re the dopest ever, cause there’s going to be a lot of people who are not happy for you.’

“That had never occurred to me … That was good prep for me because it’s true that not everybody—and other women have said [this] publicly—like generally it’s hard for people to celebrate other people if they have something that resembles something they want.”

Her sentiments were echoed by Cooper, who herself was subject to scrutiny when it was revealed she had signed at least a $60m contract to move her podcast from Barstool to Spotify.

Cooper again made headlines when her three-year deal with Spotify came to an end, and she signed a $125m deal with SiriusXM to bring her growing media empire—Unwell—to the new platform.

“I don’t think I’m ever going to get comfortable with the number being out there,” Cooper said. “My first contract when the number was leaked, I was … so proud that people know because it stands for so much. But then you get this wave of negativity, and I say it all the time … that men just do not experience this level of scrutiny when it comes to money.

“You have Jeff Bezos and Elon and Trump and all of these men get to just fucking shit money in front of our faces and everyone thinks it’s hot and powerful. And then the minute we get any of it—not even in the ballpark, we’re just lightly getting a part of the conversation—it’s like: ‘She doesn’t deserve that. Either she’s a bitch, she’d found a way to maneuver it cause she”s not worth that. And it’s a lot.”

Pompeo added: “It’s patriarchy and it’s misogyny.”

A network of power

It seems Hollywood is no different from the myriad of other industries that have a gender pay gap—in 2019, a study found that female stars, on average, earn $1.1m less than their male co-stars of similar experience.

Not only was Pompeo defying the norm by revealing her income, but she was also bucking the trend by being so highly paid as a woman.

And she’s keen to make her influence count, she added: “What helps me is to … take myself out of it. When you make a lot of money as a woman, let’s face it, you have power. So how can I take that power and do good with it? How can I amplify someone else? How can I lift up someone else who doesn’t sit in the position of privilege that I sit in?”

Pompeo added that she doesn’t try to control the reaction of others and instead focuses on “using your power for good.”

Backing up value with data is also a lesson Pompeo has learned and encouraged others to do the same.

She explained: “I don’t want anything that I don’t deserve, I don’t want anything that I haven’t worked for. The CAA (Creative Arts Agency) print out a report … and they let you know exactly how you move the needle.

“I see exactly how much Grey’s Anatomy makes for ABC Disney, I get to see the number. Then it’s my face, it’s my voice, I’ve done so much work promoting the show all over the world for the past 20 years …. I have the data to back [it] up. I know the show generated this much money, I definitely deserve a percentage of that.”

“It is challenging for women to advocate for themselves in different disputations and jobs because if you cannot quantity how what you do contributes to the income of that company, it’s harder to fight for yourself and say I deserve this.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © Miami Select.