Business

Mid-term vote holds key to Philippines riding out tariff-linked risks

Published

7 months ago

May 7, 2025

The Philippines’ May 12 midterm election is putting investors on alert for any changes to government policies, as the global trade war exposes weaknesses in one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies.

The vote to pick 12 senators, more than 300 congressmen and nearly 18,000 local officials comes as policymakers seek to boost investment and consumption against the backdrop of a more challenging external environment. It will also be a crucial test for both President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his estranged Vice President Sara Duterte, who are backing competing candidates.

“Investors are watching whether the elections will result in continuity that will ensure economic reforms,” said Jonathan Ravelas, managing director at eManagement for Business and Marketing Services, a Manila-based consultancy. “The Philippines cannot afford to have political instability, especially during this time of global uncertainty.”

The economy expanded 5.4% in the first quarter from a year earlier, slower than the 5.7% expansion forecast by analysts but marginally faster than the pace seen in the last quarter of 2024, according to data released Thursday. The government aims for growth of at least 6% this year after a slower-than-projected 5.7% expansion in 2024, though the economy is still outpacing most of Asia.

A Philippine trade delegation wrapped up initial talks with U.S. officials last week with more likely as Manila seeks to lower the Trump administration’s proposed 17% tariff. The planned levy is well below those threatened against most of Southeast Asia, including a 46% rate on Vietnam, and policymakers see the chance to win a competitive advantage—if they can continue domestic reforms.

“While the tariffs create opportunities to shift supply chains, EU investors remain cautious of long-term operational inefficiencies,” European Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines President Paulo Duarte said. “To seize this strategic window, the government must focus on lowering operational costs and improving ease of doing business.”

The country’s young, English-speaking workforce is a big asset for the economy, but challenges abound, said Ebb Hinchliffe, executive director at the American Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines. They include red tape, infrastructure and connectivity, energy costs and regulatory unpredictability, he said, echoing worries that have haunted Philippine businesses for decades.

While the Philippines has enacted legislation to attract investors—including a measure that cuts corporate taxes and the removal of foreign ownership limits in sectors including renewable energy—businesses want more reforms. But a shaky political situation after the midterms could keep the government’s focus off much-needed changes.

Finance Secretary Ralph Recto last month withdrew a proposal that sought to increase capital gains, donor and estate taxes to 10% from 6%, citing ample tax collection in the past three months. The bill would generate roughly 300 billion pesos ($5.4 billion) in additional revenue over the next five years.

Winning lawmakers will have their work cut out for them when the new Congress convenes in July. Pending bills include a measure to ban raw mineral exports to spur the downstream mining industry, a plan heavily opposed by a local nickel industry association.

And awaiting Marcos’ signature is a bill reducing the stock transaction tax to 0.1% from 0.6% to make the country more attractive compared with Southeast Asian neighbors. But it will also subject foreign firms to a 25% tax on dollar-denominated bonds out of the Philippines.

The average return on local assets in a midterm election year has been negative 0.3%, based on polls running back to 1995, compared with 12% gains during presidential election years since then, according to Ritchie Ryan Teo, chief investment officer at Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corp.

“Enflamed disagreements between parties have occurred in past elections that have not derailed the capability for Congress to pass laws and budgets,” Teo said. “We are cautiously optimistic but this is definitely a space to watch.”

The outcome of the election is particularly critical for Duterte, as the 12 senators being elected will be among jurors for the vice president’s impeachment trial that starts in July.

“Businesses don’t seem to mind it as long as it does not spill over into their turf or their bottom line,” said Dereck Aw, a senior analyst at Control Risks. “If anything, some are even relieved that politicians are too busy feuding with each other to meddle in business, which the Philippine government has been known to do.”

Consumption, powered by remittances from Filipinos working abroad, who sent home a record $38.3 billion last year, accounts for about 70% of the country’s economic output. Manufacturing is less than 20%.

Amando Tetangco, a former central bank governor who now chairs top conglomerate SM Investments Corp., said a consumption-driven economy bodes well for the Philippines at a time of heightened global risks.

“This structure gives us a certain amount of protection. We are less vulnerable,” Tetangco said. “We may be less open than other countries (in terms of trade) but in this current environment it provides us some insulation from potential adverse effects of developments.”

The Philippines’ benchmark stock index has dropped 1% in the year through May 7, trailing the MSCI Asia Pacific index’s 5% gain. Local bonds have handed dollar-based investors a gain of 6.3%, while the peso is up around 4%.

“If you look at the last 20 years or so, we’ve had a lot of those political noises but the policy directions have remained largely the same,” Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said in an interview. “What matters is that the political noise will not cause a reversal of what is otherwise good policy,” he said.

For Teresita Sy-Coson, whose family leads SM that has interests in banking, property and retail, the way forward is to shrug off politics. “We just continue with the business, we are not listening to the noise,” she said.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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Stocks: Facing a vast wave of incoming liquidity, the S&P 500 prepares to surf to a new record high

Published

28 minutes ago

December 5, 2025

Jace Porter

The S&P 500 index ticked up 0.3% yesterday, its eighth straight upward trading session. It is now less than half a percentage point away from its record high, and futures were pointing marginally up again this morning. Nasdaq 100 futures were even more optimistic, up 0.39% before the open in New York. The VIX “fear” index (which measures volatility) has sunk 12.6% this month, indicating that investors seem to have settled in for a calm, quiet, risk-on holiday season.

They have reason to be happy. Washington is preparing a wave of incoming liquidity that is likely to generate fresh demand for equities.

For instance, the CME FedWatch index shows an 87% chance that the U.S. Federal Reserve will deliver an interest rate cut next week, delivering a new round of cheaper money. Further cuts are expected in 2026.

Furthermore, Wall Street largely expects President Trump to announce that Kevin Hassett will replace Fed chairman Jerome Powell in May—and Hassett is widely regarded as a dove who will lean in favor of further rate cuts.

Elsewhere, the Fed has begun a series of “reserve management purchases,” a program in which the central bank will buy short-term T-bills—a move that will add more liquidity to markets generally.

Banks, brokers and trading platforms are also lining up to handle ‘Trump Accounts,’ into which the U.S. government will deposit $1,000 for every child. The trust fund can be invested in low-cost stock index trackers—a new source of investment demand coming online in the back half of 2026.

So it’s no surprise that nine major investment banks polled by the Financial Times expect stocks to rise in 2026; the average of their estimates is by 10%.

The Congressional Budget Office also estimates that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will add 0.9% to U.S. GDP next year largely because it allows companies to immediately deduct capital expenditures from their taxes—spurring a huge round of corporate spending.

With all that fresh money on the horizon, it’s clear why markets have shrugged off their worries about AI and Bitcoin. The only shock will be if the S&P fails to hit a new all-time high by the end of the year.

Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:

S&P 500 futures were up 0.2% this morning. The last session closed up 0.3%.
STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.3% in early trading.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.14% in early trading.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 2.33%.
China’s CSI 300 was up 0.34%.
The South Korea KOSPI was down 0.19%.
India’s NIFTY 50 is up 0.18%.
Bitcoin was flat at $93K.

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Gen Z fears AI will upend careers. Can leaders change the narrative?

Published

59 minutes ago

December 5, 2025

Jace Porter

Good morning. Are you communicating the purpose of AI with your younger employees? According to new data from Harvard, most fear AI is going to take their jobs.

The Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School released the fall 2025 Harvard Youth Poll on Thursday, which finds a generation under profound strain. The nationwide survey of 2,040 Americans between 18 and 29 years old was conducted from Nov. 3–7. For these respondents, instability—financial, political, and interpersonal—has become a defining feature of daily life.

Young Americans see AI as more likely to take something away than to create something new. A majority (59%) see AI as a threat to their job prospects, more than immigration (31%) or outsourcing of jobs to other countries (48%).

Nearly 45% say AI will reduce opportunities, while only 14% expect gains. Another 17% foresee no change and 23% are unsure—and this holds across education levels and gender.

In addition, young people fear AI will undermine the meaning of work. About 41% say AI will make work less meaningful, compared to 14% who say it will make work more meaningful and 19% who think it will make no difference; a quarter (25%) say they are unsure.

In my conversations this year with CFOs and industry experts, many have said that the goal of using AI is to remove the mundane and manual aspects of work in order to create more meaningful, thought‑provoking opportunities. However, that message does not yet seem to be resonating with younger employees.

There is a lot of public discussion and widespread fear that AI will mostly take away jobs, but research by McKinsey Global Institute released last week offers a different perspective. According to the report, AI could, in theory, automate about 57% of U.S. work hours, but that figure measures the technical potential in tasks, not the inevitable loss of jobs, as Fortune reported.

Instead of mass replacement, McKinsey researchers argue the future of work will be defined by partnerships among people, agents, and robots—all powered by AI, but dependent on human guidance and organizational redesign. The primary reason AI will not result in half the workforce being immediately sidelined is the enduring relevance of human skills.

The Harvard poll also found young people have greater trust in AI for school and work tasks (52% overall, 63% among college students) and for learning or tutoring (48% overall, 63% among college students). But trust drops sharply for personal matters.

Young employees are considered AI natives. However, it is important to recognize that they have not experienced as many major technology shifts as more seasoned employees—like the dawn of the internet. It’s not to say that AI won’t change the workforce, but there’s still room and need for humans. It’s up to leaders to clearly communicate how AI will change roles, which tasks it will automate, and also provide ongoing training and guidance on how employees can still grow their careers in an AI-powered workplace.

Have a good weekend. See you on Monday.

SherylEstrada
sheryl.estrada@fortune.com

Leaderboard

Fortune 500 Power Moves

Amanda Brimmer was appointed CFO of leasing advisory and head of corporatedevelopment at JLL (No. 188), a global commercial real estate and investment management company. Reporting to JLL CFO Kelly Howe, Brimmer will partner with business leaders globally to drive financial growth and performance. Brimmer brings more than two decades of experience from Boston Consulting Group, where she most recently served as managing director and senior partner.

Galagher Jeff was appointed EVP and CFO of ARKO Corp. (No. 488), one of the largest convenience store operators and fuel wholesalers in the U.S., effective Dec. 1. Jeff most recently served as EVP and CFO for Murphy USA, Inc. Before that, he spent nearly 15 years in senior and executive finance roles with retailers, including Dollar Tree Stores, Inc., Advance Auto Parts, Inc. and Walmart Stores, Inc., in addition to a decade-long career in finance and strategy consulting at organizations including KPMG and Ernst & Young.

Every Friday morning, the weekly Fortune 500 Power Moves column tracks Fortune 500 company C-suite shifts—see the most recent edition.

More notable moves this week:

Barbara Larson, CFO of SentinelOne, a cybersecurity company, will transition from her role to pursue an opportunity outside of the cybersecurity industry. Larson will continue to serve in her role through mid-January 2026. Upon her departure, Barry Padgett, chief growth officer, will serve as interim CFO. Barry has more than 25 years of experience in operational leadership at enterprise software companies, including SAP and Stripe. SentinelOne has initiated a search for its next CFO.

Jessica Ross was appointed CFO of GitLab Inc. (Nasdaq: GTLB), a DevSecOps platform, effective Jan. 15. Ross joins the company from Frontdoor, where she served as CFO. She has more than 25 years of experience in finance, accounting, and operational leadership at companies like Salesforce and Stitch Fix, and spent 12 years in public accounting at Arthur Andersen and Deloitte.

Michele Allen was appointed CFO of Jersey Mike’s Subs, a franchisor of fast-casual sandwich shops, effective Dec. 1. Allen succeeds Walter Tombs, who is retiring from Jersey Mike’s in January after 26 years with the company. Allen brings more than 25 years of financial leadership experience. Most recently, she served as CFO and head of strategy at Wyndham Hotels & Resorts. Allen began her career with Deloitte as an auditor.

Nick Tressler was appointed CFO of Vistagen (Nasdaq: VTGN), a late clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, effective Dec. 1. Tressler brings over 20 years of financial leadership experience. Most recently, he served as CFO of DYNEX Technologies, and before that, he was the CFO at American Gene Technologies, International, and Senseonics Holdings, Inc. Tressler has also held senior finance roles at several biopharmaceutical companies.

Mike Lenihan was appointed CFO of Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NasdaqGS: TXRH), a restaurant company, effective Dec. 3. Keith Humpich, who served as interim CFO, was appointed chief accounting and financial services officer of the company. Lenihan has nearly 30 years of finance experience, including the past 22 years in the restaurant industry. Most recently, he served as the CFO at CKE Restaurants, Inc.

Big Deal

The ADP National Employment Report, released on Dec. 3, indicated that private-sector employment declined by 32,000 jobs in November. ADP found that job creation has been flat during the second half of 2025, while pay growth has continued its downward trend. In November, hiring was particularly weak in manufacturing, professional and business services, information, and construction.

“Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, in a statement. “And while November’s slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses.”

ADP’s report is an independent measure of labor market conditions based on anonymized weekly payroll data from more than 26 million private-sector employees in the U.S. The next major U.S. Jobs Report (Employment Situation) for November is scheduled for release on Dec. 16 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Going deeper

Here are four Fortune weekend reads:

Overheard

“The Fed no more ‘determines’ interest rates than a meteorologist determines the weather.”

—Alexander William Salter states in a Fortune opinion piece. Salter is a senior fellow with the Independent Institute and an economics professor in the Rawls College of Business at Texas Tech University. He writes: “The Fed doesn’t set interest rates. As powerful as America’s central bank is, it’s still just one player in a globe-spanning ocean of financial markets. Instead, the Fed sets targets for short-term interest rates. Those target rates indicate the Fed’s general monetary policy stance, but they are not the substance of monetary policy.”

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Four key questions about OpenAI vs Google—the high-stakes tech matchup of 2026

Published

1 hour ago

December 5, 2025

Jace Porter

Hello, Tech Editor Alexei Oreskovic, pitching in for Allie. We’ve been enjoying some crisp blue-sky days here in San Francisco in true December fashion. For the folks at OpenAI however, the days have been red — Code Red.

In case you haven’t been following, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman on Monday declared a “Code Red” alert in a memo to employees, according to the Information and the Wall Street Journal. The alert, the highest level on OpenAI’s three-point scale, is essentially an all-hands-on-deck call to mobilize and defend against an imminent threat. That threat is Google and its latest version of the Gemini AI model, which competes with OpenAI’s GPT family of models, particularly its flagship ChatGPT product.

It’s a remarkable turn of events, almost exactly three years to the day that OpenAI released ChatGPT and put Google and the rest of the tech industry on the back foot. Now Google is on the ascent, hoping to turn OpenAI into MySpace. Of course, with its $500 billion valuation, OpenAI and its investors are not about to surrender.

So, as the two AI superpowers roll up their sleeves for what’s sure to be a 2026 slugfest, we thought it would be interesting to tap into the wisdom of Term Sheet readers and ask for your perspectives on some of the key questions of this critical moment in tech history. Send your thoughts directly to me or to Allie G.

How can a company like OpenAI turn a first-mover advantage into a sustainable and long-lasting business that doesn’t get bulldozed by giants with more resources and capital?

Is there a lesson—good or bad—from a first mover of the past (e.g. Netscape vs Microsoft; Blackberry vs iPhone) that OpenAI should heed?

What is the Google Achilles heel that OpenAI should exploit?

What is the single most important thing that OpenAI needs to execute on right now – and what is the best metric to measure its success?

And of course, what other important parts of this story should we be thinking about?

Fire away!

Alexei Oreskovic
X:@lexnfx
Email:alexei.oreskovic@fortune.com
Submit a deal for the Term Sheet newsletter here.

Joey Abrams curated the deals section of today’s newsletter.Subscribe here.

Venture Deals

– 7AI, a Boston-based agentic cybersecurity platform, raised $130 million in Series A funding. Index Ventures led the round and was joined by Blackstone Innovations Investments, as well as existing seed investors Greylock, CRV, and Spark.

– Fact Base, a Tokyo-based manufacturing SaaS startup and maker of drawing management system ZUMEN, raised $28.5 million in Series C funding from Insight Partners.

– imper.ai, a New York City-based startup that prevents AI and cyber impersonation, emerged from stealth after raising $28 million in funding. Redpoint Ventures and Battery Ventures led the investment round and were joined by Maple VC, Vessy VC, and Cerca Partners.

– pH7 Technologies, a Vancouver, British Columbia-based metal extraction company, raised $25.6 million in initial Series B funding. Fine Structure Ventures led the round with strategic investment from BHP Ventures and was joined Energy & Environment Investment, Siteground, Gaingels Fund, and Calm Ventures, along with existing investors including TDK Ventures, Pangaea Ventures, Rhapsody Venture Partners, and BASF Venture Capital.

– Pine AI, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based startup that specializes in agentic AI for customer service applications, raised $25 million in Series A funding. Investors included Fortwest Capital.

– Lumia, an agentic AI security and governance platform, raised $18 million in seed funding. Team8 led the round and was joined by New Era.

– Multifactor, a San Francisco-based agentic AI security platform, raised $15 million in seed funding. Nexus Venture Partners led the round and was joined by Y Combinator, Taurus Ventures, Honeystone Ventures, Flex Capital, Pioneer Fund, Ritual Capital, and Liquid2 Ventures.

– Laigo Bio, a Utrecht, Netherlands-based biotech company specializing in novel membrane protein degradation, raised €11.5 million ($13.4 million) in seed funding. Kurma Partners and Curie Capital co-led the round and were joined by Argobio Studio, Angelini Ventures, Eurazeo, the Oncode Bridge Fund, ROM Utrecht Region, and Cancer Research Horizons.

– Helmet Security, a Washington, D.C.-based agentic AI communication security startup, emerged from stealth after raising $9 million from SYN Ventures and WhiteRabbit Ventures.

– Addis Energy, a Somerville, Mass.-based ammonia production technology developer, raised $8.3 million in seed funding. At One Ventures led the round and was joined by existing investors Engine Ventures and Pillar VC.

– Alinia AI, a Barcelona, Spain- and New York City-based startup that builds compliance tools for AI systems, raised $7.5 million in seed funding. Mouro Capital led the round and was joined by Speedinvest, Raise Ventures, and Precursor.

– BuiltAI, a London, U.K.-based financial modeling platform for commercial real estate investment, raised $6 million in seed funding. Work-Bench led the round and was joined by Lerer Hippeau, Timber Grove Ventures, Emerald Pine, and angel investors.

– Curvestone AI, a London, U.K.-based platform that reduces compound errors in automated workflows, raised $4 million seed funding. MTech Capital led the round and was joined by Boost Capital Partners, D2 Fund, and Portfolio Ventures.

– Govstream.ai, a Seattle-based startup building AI-native permitting tools for local governments, raised $3.6 million in seed funding. 47th Street Partners led the round and was joined by Nellore Capital, Ascend, Kevin Merritt, and Andreas Huber.

Private Equity

– Ares Management Corporation recapitalized MGT, a Tampa-based national technology and advisory solutions company serving state and local education institutions and governments, with a $350 million investment that values MGT at $1.25 billion. Existing investors include the Vistria Group, JPMorgan, and WhiteHorse Capital.

– TRP Infrastructure Services, an Arlington Capital Partners portfolio company, completed its acquisition of Corpus Christi, Texas-based Highway Barricades & Services, a provider of pavement marking and traffic control services. Financial terms were not disclosed.

– The Care Team, a Revelstoke Capital Partners portfolio company, acquired select hospice and palliative care operations from Traditions Health, a Tennessee-based hospice, palliative, and home health provider with operations in 16 states. Financial terms were not disclosed.

– Inovara Group, an Ambienta portfolio company, acquired Guildford, U.K.-based IBL Lighting Limited, an LED engine design and architectural lighting provider. Financial terms were not disclosed.