TWO TEAMS ON LIFE SUPPORT TRYING TO GET A HUGE WIN!
This game definitely didn’t pan out as hoped when the schedule was made but every year we see some teams with lofty expectations simply fail to live up to them. Both teams–Miami and Baltimore–have endured soul-crushing injuries and in turn both come in bottom feeders in most key stats. It’s hard to win even with your entire roster, it’s much harder when you lose your best players. Tonight the Ravens get their MVP quarterback back on the field after missing 3 weeks. As bad as this start has been for the Ravens they are still in striking distance of the Steelers, only 2 games back. The Ravens have the easiest schedule one could hope for with only 2 winning teams left ahead and both Steelers games still to go.
Miami of course lost stud WR T. Hill and really no HC in the league has been worse with a roster that should never come into this game (2-6). They finally pitched a perfect game by both sides of the ball with a blowout win over the Falcons, leaving a glimmer of hope for Fins fans. The problem for the Dolphins is they have a very tough schedule ahead, and being 4 games back of both the Patriots and Bills means unless the greatest miracle ever comes, they aren’t going to any playoffs this season.
RAVENS “D” A MASH UNIT THAT HAS GOTTEN RUN OVER ON ROAD!
We are at the halfway point of this 2025 season and somehow the Ravens waltz in having played only 2 road games all year. They allowed 41 and 37 points in losses to KC and Buffalo. Injuries have been their #1 problem, but running 50 plays or less in 5 games so far is a disaster. They have won the time of possession battle once all season and that has put the Ravens’ mash unit of defense on the field way too much. At times, the Ravens have been down 5 starters on the defensive side of the ball. When this is the case, it’s no shock you are ranked (#28) — tired legs and inexperienced players are a brutal pairing.
This is a turnover league and most games the team that wins that battle wins the game. Sadly for Ravens fans, they have just 1 interception and 1 fumble recovery in the last 5 games combined. Tough to win when your offense is a bakery with 6 turnovers the past 3 games. The bad news for the Black and Purple gang is that they allow an atrocious (409) total yards per game. The good news is the past 2 games that number has dropped dramatically by over 100 yards per game (306).
In these types of games I always chuckle thinking of the movie where the young kid says, “So you’re saying I have a chance?” The Ravens’ playoff hopes ride on this defense being in the range of the last 2 weeks — not the first 5 weeks.
MIAMI DEFENSE WENT FROM #5 LAST YEAR TO #23 THIS SEASON!
Look folks, there is blame to go around with this team and coaching staff. But when your defense allows the most rushes of (10+) yards, then an almost unimaginable dead last (74%) pass completion rate, and then the most receiving 3rd down plays — second worst overall yards allowed to wide receivers — and then have half your games where the “D” has allowed (400) yards or more of total offense, you almost assuredly will be a losing team.
Tonight they will face the best running QB in the league in Lamar Jackson and of course the beast RB D. Henry. This year they have allowed Panthers RB R. Dowdle (206) rushing yards, the Bills J. Cook (108), and the Chargers K. Vidal (124), so if they allow this type of woodshed tonight, they have almost no chance to win. Like the Ravens, the Fins defense simply can’t get the big turnovers to swing games — they have only 1 interception all season.
BOTH OFFENSES SHOWED SOME SIGNS OF LIFE IN LAST WEEK’S WINS!
The Dolphins offense is bottom 9 in both rushing and passing, and in their 6 losses Tua has thrown 10 interceptions. In the 2 Dolphins wins, he threw zero. For the Dolphins to leave with a victory, Tua must have a zero again. When I watch live games I look closely to see how coaches make adjustments. When I watch game tapes on Monday-Tuesday nights, I look to see if teams made new and proper adjustments or did they lose because they didn’t make any.
The Dolphins last week came out with a completely new offense — they used 6 offensive linemen which opened up big gap runs and went to a quicker pass attack with more involvement passing the ball and giving receivers room to make big splash plays. It worked like a charm and completely stunned the Falcons defensive coaching staff that simply never could stop the Fins offense.
The Ravens offense with Jackson in there has produced 30 points or more in 7 of his last 8 starts. He’s gotta be licking his chops knowing Miami has allowed 27 points or more in 6 of their 8 games. The road has actually been very kind to the Ravens as they have averaged a whopping (422) yards per game in their last 10 road games. The big stats though have only produced a (5-5) record in those 10 games. The Ravens have lost 3 straight on the road including the late collapse to the Bills in the season opener.
TOP TRENDS FOR THIS “PRIME TV” GAME OF WEEK!
(1). BALTY RAVENS: Last 14 regular season or playoff wins were by an average of (16.3) points per game. This is huge as they are over a TD favorite tonight. (2). MIAMI DOLPHINS: Have gone “OVER” the total their last 9 home games. (3). BALTY RAVENS: Have gone “OVER” the total 19 times in their last 24 overall games (6 of 7 this season). (4). RAVENS QB JACKSON: Last 4 games he played, the total points per game averaged (57). (5). THURSDAY PRIME TV GAMES: Last 4 all went “OVER” the total.
GARY’S FINAL PASS
When you bet for a living like me, I can tell you that you will never be a long-term winner betting on bad teams. Can you trust either team’s defense to come in and stop the other offense? I have to say I am very impressed (okay, stunned) the past two weeks we saw the Dolphins defense look like the top 5 defense of 2024 as they allowed only (423) total yards the past 2 weeks combined. The Ravens defense out of nowhere held the Rams to just (241) total yards 2 weeks ago.
Even though both defenses played a little better the past two weeks, this game comes on a short week and it’s not shocking the last 4 Thursday night prime games went “OVER” the total. When I get a matchup of two bottom-feeder defenses that rarely turn the ball over (Ravens D has 2 interceptions and 2 fumble recoveries all year and the Fins D has 6 games with 1 turnover forced or less) I expect no loss of scoring chances.
The Ravens will get some much-needed “juice” tonight with Jackson returning, and with the Dolphins finding no trouble lighting up the scoreboard at home (*minimum 27 points scored last 8 home games and exactly 27 in each of their 3 home games this season) we will take the “OVER 50 ½” in what we feel will be a high-scoring game with both QBs having huge games.
We have had a nice season and come off the nice 10-point Packers win Sunday night (we passed Monday night affair). Let’s see lots of big plays and lots of TOUCHDOWNS tonight!
IF YOU WANT TO WIN, PUT C.J. GARDNER JOHNSON ON YOUR DEFENSE
There has to be something that the average NFL fan doesn’t know about safety C.J. Gardner Johnson.
How else can you explain why the Chicago Bears, who signed him two weeks ago, are his fifth team (six if you count the Eagles twice) in seven years?
It’s not his play. Because all he does is make plays.
In Chicago’s come-from-behind win over the Giants, Sunday, Johnson was all over the place. He had nine tackles, two for a loss, two sacks, and forced a fumble. That was his second game as a Bear. In his debut with his new team he had six tackles, one for a loss, and a sack.
Last year for the Super Bowl champion Eagles Gardner Johnson started 16 games, had six interceptions, one returned for a touchdown, 12 pass breakups, two tackles for a loss and a forced fumble. That didn’t stop the Eagles from trading him to Houston for a guard who they later cut, twice.
And Houston cut Gardner Johnson just a few weeks into the season.
Back in 2022, the year the Eagles lost the Super Bowl he had six interceptions in 12 games togo with eight PBs and five tackles for a loss. After that season they let him go to Detroit.
In a league where defensive playmakers are harder and harder to find it seems like this guy always shows up at the right time.
LOSING COWBOYS
Dallas enjoyed its bye week, well as much as a 3-5-1 team can enjoy a bye week, Sunday. The Cowboys have to go 5-3 over their final eight games to avoid back-to-back losing seasons for the first time since the turn of the century. Dallas had losing seasons in 2000-01-02 under head coach Dave Campo. The only other consecutive losing seasons for the Cowboys since Jerry Jones bought the team was his first two years as owner 1989-90.
DON’T LOOK NOW
Remember when the Pittsburgh Steelers were cruising along at 4-1 and the Baltimore Ravens were left for dead at 1-4?
Well the Steelers, after losing again Sunday night, are 5-4 and the Ravens, after three straight wins, are now 4-5. Is there anyone who doesn’t think Baltimore is going to win the AFC North?
SPEAKING OF THE AFC NORTH . . .
How bad is this division? The Jets were 0-7 before beating both Cincinnati and Cleveland the past two weeks. They also took the Steelers right down to the final minute opening day.
AND ABOUT THE STEELERS
Pittsburgh quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw his sixth and seventh interceptions of the season in Sunday night’s loss to the Chargers. That’s seven picks in just nine games for Rodgers as a Steeler. In 18 years with Green Bay he only had more than seven three times. The most he’s ever had is 13 in his first year as a starter, 2008.
LUCKY 21
Over the past two seasons, with Minnesota and now Seattle, QB Sam Darnold has 21 wins. That’s the same number of wins he had his first six years in the league combined.
UNLUCKY 21
Washington, after getting blown out by Detroit, has now lost four straight games by 21 points, or more. That’s only happened one other time when the Cardinals did it in 2002. The Commanders will try to not make it five straight when they play Miami in Madrid, Sunday.
WHAT A WIN
There’s winning ugly and then there is how Denver beat the Raiders last Thursday night. The Broncos scored 10 points, had 10 first downs and two turnovers. Teams record with those stats are 2-202.
Denver did extend its home winning streak to 10 games, the longest active streak in the league. And its seven-game winning streak is its longest since 2015 when the Broncos won the Super Bowl.
BETTORS BEWARE
Sunday was a bad day for bad beats.
It started in Germany where the Colts were 6 1/2-points favorites over the Falcons and won by 6. Back over here, the Bears came from way back to beat the Giants by 4, but the line was 4 1/2.
Then there was the Houston/Jacksonville game. Houston was a 1 1/2 point favorite and trailed by as many 19 at one point. The Texans came back and took a one-point lead in the final minute. The Jaguars had one last chance, but Jags bettors were in by the half-point. Until Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence fumbled on the final play of the game and the Texans returned it for a touchdown and an eight-point win.
THE AFC CHAMPION WILL BE . . .
I’m not sure. But I’d like to make a bet it comes out of the AFC West (and it won’t be the Raiders).
The New York Giants have parted ways with head coach Brian Daboll midway through his fourth season, following a disappointing 2-8 record capped by a loss to the Chicago Bears.
According to sources who spoke with the Associated Press on condition of anonymity, the decision was made after the Giants blew a late lead and fell 24-20 to the Bears. Offensive coordinator Mike Kafka has been named interim head coach.
General Manager Joe Schoen and Defensive Coordinator Shane Bowen will remain in their roles as the team navigates the remainder of the season.
Daboll’s Record and Coaching History
Daboll finishes his tenure with a record of 20-40-1. He led the Giants to the playoffs in his first season and earned Coach of the Year honors, but the team has gone just 11-33 since. His .336 winning percentage ranks 154th out of 166 NFL coaches with 50+ games since 1970.
This marks the Giants’ third midseason coaching change since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 and the first since 2017, when Ben McAdoo and GM Jerry Reese were dismissed after a 2-10 start.
Daboll Responds to Firing
In recent weeks, Daboll faced increasing pressure and took public responsibility for the team’s struggles.
“Look, you put everything you’ve got into it,” Daboll said. “You look at the things that aren’t where they need to be and you try to fix them… That’s where we’re at.”
Kafka Steps In Amid Injuries and Uncertainty
Kafka inherits a team riddled with injuries and instability. Quarterback Jaxson Dart suffered a concussion against the Bears, forcing veteran Russell Wilson back into action. Rookies Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers are already out for the season.
Kafka, 38, joined the Giants after working under Andy Reid in Kansas City since 2017. He played four games for the Eagles in 2011 and was a standout quarterback at Northwestern.
VEGAS ODDS: GREEN BAY PACKERS (-1) ~ TOTAL: (45 ½)
TEAM TOTALS: EAGLES (22 ½) ~ PACKERS (23 ½)
EAGLES (#24) OFFENSE: (112R-193P) vs. PACKERS (#5) DEF: (89R-197P)
PACKERS (#8) OFFENSE: (113R-248P) vs. EAGLES (#22) DEF: (120R-216P)
REMATCH OF LAST YEAR’S WILD CARD PLAYOFF GAME IN LAMBEAU!
Last year we saw the Packers head to Philly for a Wild Card Playoff game and they left with nothing but heartache and a long offseason after they lost (22-10) after they turned the ball over 4x giving them really zero chance to win the game. The Packers also lost in Week 1 last year to the Eagles (34-29) in Brazil so it’s a double revenge spot for the Cheeseheads on Monday night. This clearly is a game the Packers players had circled the day the schedules came out and now they also come in off a brutal (16-13) loss the Panthers as a two TD favorite last week ensuring you will get their full attention this game.
PACKERS NOW FACING LIFE WITHOUT THEIR TOP RECEIVER KRAFT!
It’s very rare for any teams Tight End to be the teams leading receiver and even more so by a wide margin but that is the case for this year’s Packers team as TE Tucker Kraft is the leader halfway through the season with 489 total yards and 6 TD catches. Kraft is now out for the season after tearing his ACL last week. He led the team with Yards after the Catch with a whopping 344 yards. The second most on the team is RB Josh Jacobs with 232. Now WR R. Doubs leads the receiving corps with only 92 yards after catch. I don’t think any other player lost for the season on any team would be worse than this loss for the Packers.
NEITHER QB HAS PLAYED SANTA CLAUS THIS ENTIRE SEASON!
For the most part if your team’s QB has a very low number of Interceptions you likely will have a winning record. Well folks the Eagles QB J. Hurts has only thrown 1 interception all season and Packers QB J. Love has thrown just 3. The Eagles entire team has played Grinch as they have only committed 3 turnovers all season and 2 of them came in their lackluster loss to the Giants. The Packers Defense only has 3 interceptions and 2 fumble recoveries all season and the Eagles Defense only has two interceptions and zero fumble recoveries the past 4 games so I don’t expect too many free gifts being given away in this contest.
THE STATS SHOW THE EAGLES AS A LOSING TEAM THUS FAR!
When you see a team ranked #24 on Offense and #22 on Defense you usually will see a losing record next to their name in the standings. But the Eagles know how to win regardless and this team is a rarity and proof that “stats do lie”. What makes the Eagles (6-2) record even more surprising is the fact they have only won the Time of Possession battle once the past 5 weeks. The past two weeks the Eagles Offense was terrible on third downs (2-8 & 3-10) but they still won both games.
The Eagles Offense has run over 60 plays in a game once all year long and that came in the season opener. The Birds Offensive Line has been shaky the past 4 games allowing QB Hurts to be sacked 16x. Hurts has already been sacked 25x this season (7th most). Yet they simply continue to find a way to win games without really dominating anyone.
PACKERS PUT POINTS ON THE BOARD BUT ARE STILL OFF RIGHT NOW!
Most teams fans would be thrilled with their team scoring 27, 27, 40, 27, 27 and 35 points in 6 of their 8 games. They would almost always be thrilled if their teams Defense was ranked #5. They would be thrilled that their team’s losses were both by only a FG (one also ended in a Tie). The Packers have won the Time of Possession battle 5 of their last 6 games. The Packers Defense has been solid allowing only 13, 18, 13, 18, 23, 16 and 25 points in 7 of their 8 games.
The game they allowed 25 was vs. the Steelers and in that game the Steel Crew went (1-10) on third down and had only 295 total yards and really had only 19 points scored until the Steelers scored a late meaningless TD with under 2 mins left. They have had one really bad Defensive outing and that was the 40-40 tie at Dallas. Yet with all these great things something simply is very off with this Packers team.
Last week the Packers lost 16-13 to the Panthers yet the Defense allowed only 265 total yards and it was a Love interception that set up a short field for Carolina to score a TD for 7 of those 16 points scored. The Defense has allowed only one opposing QB to pass for over 236 yards all season. They have 10 sacks the past 3 games combined. The Defense is much better with the trade addition of Micah Parsons but even with all these solid numbers they would likely be only (3-5) without the addition of Parsons to the lineup.
The Defensive Line only has 3 batted balls all season. They only have 2 fumble recoveries which is a sign of bad coaching teaching their players to punch balls out to force turnovers. The Packers Offensive Line simply can’t Run Block. Their running backs’ longest rush all season is only 19 yards. Their stud RB Jacobs has 10 rush TD’s but no other player has rushed for a TD all season. Last year the Packers were the 3rd highest running team and this season they’ve dipped to #9. Jacobs earns every single yard he gets as 14 QB’s in the NFL actually have more yards rushing before contact than Jacobs.
TOP TRENDS FOR THIS MONDAY NIGHT AFFAIR IN LAMBEAU!
1). EAGLES: (10-5) Straight up L/15 on Road vs. Winning teams. 2). EAGLES: (7-1) ATS L/8 as a Non Division Road Underdog. 3). EAGLES: (5-0) ATS vs. Winning teams this season. 4). PACKERS: Just (1-5) ATS L/6 games. 5). PACKERS: Perfect (4-0) Straight up in 2nd of B2B Home games. 6). EAGLES: Last 13 Mon Night games = (3 “OVERS” – 10 “UNDERS”).
GARY’S FINAL PASS:
It will be very interesting to see who the Packers now go to on the Offensive side of the ball with stud TE Kraft out. Luckily for them, speedster WR C. Watson is back in lineup and if they can get him going and get 1st round pick WR Golden making a few big plays deep they can maybe give the running game some better openings as that would keep the Eagles from just loading the box to force Love to find guys who really have done nothing all season in the Passing game. The Packers could use a fast start to quickly erase that terrible loss last week to the Panthers and since the Defense has only allowed a hard to even fathom 2 FG’s all season in the first quarter that is a very doable situation.
For the Eagles when I watch game tapes not many good teams play calling leaves me scratching my head like they do as their OC Patullo play calling does. It’s also clear QB Hurts will take sacks rather than turn the ball over. The Eagles have one of the best 1-2-3 punches in the league with S. Barkley, D. Smith and A.J. Brown and so with the Packers desperately searching for a #1 receiver now with TE Kraft done for the season the Eagles really just need to avoid losing the turnover battle and they should be in this one throughout.
GARY’S PREDICTION:
You have to applaud the Eagles front office as they always seem to excel in the Draft and then add key needed pieces at the Trade deadline. I love the addition of DE J. Phillips and then also the return of retired DL B. Graham has now made the Eagles a clearly much better club then they have fielded most of this season. The Packers have only beaten 2 teams all season with a winning record. I have always been super impressed with the playcalling by their HC Matt LaFlueur but this season I have felt he has seemed lost way too often and it’s why this team just seems too out of sync to be considered a serious contender.
The sharps and the squares all seem to be backing the Eagles as the line opened Green Bay (-2 ½) and it’s now dropped to just (-1). It’s so hard to bet against the Packers at Lambeau Field or any very good team looking at double Revenge from last year including a Playoff knockout, but it’s also very hard to bet against this Super Bowl Champion Eagles team. Because I get queasy watching the Packers OL run blocking and then the loss of stud TE Kraft I just can’t side with them here. The Packers though have either won or lost by just a FG which tells me they will find a way to hang in this game the entire 60 minutes.
I fully expect this game to go to the wire and likely won in the final minutes, if not the final seconds. Last night I nailed the Steelers/Bolts game to a “T” but this one is not quite that easy. It’s too close for me to call this one so we will leave it to those who must wager on every TV game regardless of any solid value on one side.
Enjoy this final game of Week 10 and please never lose what you can’t afford to lose.
FINAL NOTE:
You can get all Longtime Las Vegas Pro Bettor Gary Greene’s Football Betting Magazine NFL Stats pages at: GARYWINS.COM
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