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Miami v Baltimore: Gary Greene Picks NFL TNF

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Gary Greene looks at Thursday Night Football

NFL WEEK 9 THURSDAY NIGHT PREVIEW ~ RAVENS @ DOLPHINS

BALTIMORE – (2-5) – (2-0 ROAD) vs. MIAMI: (2-6) – (1-2 HOME)

BALT offense: (#20) (138R-182P) vs. MIAMI defense: (#23) (145R-199P)
MIAMI offense: (#28) (99R-188P) vs. BALT defense: (#28) (129R-251P)

VEGAS ODDS: BALTIMORE RAVENS (-7 ½) ~ TOTAL: (50 ½)
TEAM TOTALS: BALTIMORE (28 ½) ~ MIAMI (20 ½)

TWO TEAMS ON LIFE SUPPORT TRYING TO GET A HUGE WIN!

This game definitely didn’t pan out as hoped when the schedule was made but every year we see some teams with lofty expectations simply fail to live up to them. Both teams–Miami and Baltimore–have endured soul-crushing injuries and in turn both come in bottom feeders in most key stats. It’s hard to win even with your entire roster, it’s much harder when you lose your best players. Tonight the Ravens get their MVP quarterback back on the field after missing 3 weeks. As bad as this start has been for the Ravens they are still in striking distance of the Steelers, only 2 games back. The Ravens have the easiest schedule one could hope for with only 2 winning teams left ahead and both Steelers games still to go.

Miami of course lost stud WR T. Hill and really no HC in the league has been worse with a roster that should never come into this game (2-6). They finally pitched a perfect game by both sides of the ball with a blowout win over the Falcons, leaving a glimmer of hope for Fins fans. The problem for the Dolphins is they have a very tough schedule ahead, and being 4 games back of both the Patriots and Bills means unless the greatest miracle ever comes, they aren’t going to any playoffs this season.

RAVENS “D” A MASH UNIT THAT HAS GOTTEN RUN OVER ON ROAD!

We are at the halfway point of this 2025 season and somehow the Ravens waltz in having played only 2 road games all year. They allowed 41 and 37 points in losses to KC and Buffalo. Injuries have been their #1 problem, but running 50 plays or less in 5 games so far is a disaster. They have won the time of possession battle once all season and that has put the Ravens’ mash unit of defense on the field way too much. At times, the Ravens have been down 5 starters on the defensive side of the ball. When this is the case, it’s no shock you are ranked (#28) — tired legs and inexperienced players are a brutal pairing.

This is a turnover league and most games the team that wins that battle wins the game. Sadly for Ravens fans, they have just 1 interception and 1 fumble recovery in the last 5 games combined. Tough to win when your offense is a bakery with 6 turnovers the past 3 games. The bad news for the Black and Purple gang is that they allow an atrocious (409) total yards per game. The good news is the past 2 games that number has dropped dramatically by over 100 yards per game (306).

In these types of games I always chuckle thinking of the movie where the young kid says, “So you’re saying I have a chance?” The Ravens’ playoff hopes ride on this defense being in the range of the last 2 weeks — not the first 5 weeks.

MIAMI DEFENSE WENT FROM #5 LAST YEAR TO #23 THIS SEASON!

Look folks, there is blame to go around with this team and coaching staff. But when your defense allows the most rushes of (10+) yards, then an almost unimaginable dead last (74%) pass completion rate, and then the most receiving 3rd down plays — second worst overall yards allowed to wide receivers — and then have half your games where the “D” has allowed (400) yards or more of total offense, you almost assuredly will be a losing team.

Tonight they will face the best running QB in the league in Lamar Jackson and of course the beast RB D. Henry. This year they have allowed Panthers RB R. Dowdle (206) rushing yards, the Bills J. Cook (108), and the Chargers K. Vidal (124), so if they allow this type of woodshed tonight, they have almost no chance to win. Like the Ravens, the Fins defense simply can’t get the big turnovers to swing games — they have only 1 interception all season.

BOTH OFFENSES SHOWED SOME SIGNS OF LIFE IN LAST WEEK’S WINS!

The Dolphins offense is bottom 9 in both rushing and passing, and in their 6 losses Tua has thrown 10 interceptions. In the 2 Dolphins wins, he threw zero. For the Dolphins to leave with a victory, Tua must have a zero again. When I watch live games I look closely to see how coaches make adjustments. When I watch game tapes on Monday-Tuesday nights, I look to see if teams made new and proper adjustments or did they lose because they didn’t make any.

The Dolphins last week came out with a completely new offense — they used 6 offensive linemen which opened up big gap runs and went to a quicker pass attack with more involvement passing the ball and giving receivers room to make big splash plays. It worked like a charm and completely stunned the Falcons defensive coaching staff that simply never could stop the Fins offense.

The Ravens offense with Jackson in there has produced 30 points or more in 7 of his last 8 starts. He’s gotta be licking his chops knowing Miami has allowed 27 points or more in 6 of their 8 games. The road has actually been very kind to the Ravens as they have averaged a whopping (422) yards per game in their last 10 road games. The big stats though have only produced a (5-5) record in those 10 games. The Ravens have lost 3 straight on the road including the late collapse to the Bills in the season opener.

TOP TRENDS FOR THIS “PRIME TV” GAME OF WEEK!

(1). BALTY RAVENS: Last 14 regular season or playoff wins were by an average of (16.3) points per game. This is huge as they are over a TD favorite tonight.
(2). MIAMI DOLPHINS: Have gone “OVER” the total their last 9 home games.
(3). BALTY RAVENS: Have gone “OVER” the total 19 times in their last 24 overall games (6 of 7 this season).
(4). RAVENS QB JACKSON: Last 4 games he played, the total points per game averaged (57).
(5). THURSDAY PRIME TV GAMES: Last 4 all went “OVER” the total.

GARY’S FINAL PASS

When you bet for a living like me, I can tell you that you will never be a long-term winner betting on bad teams. Can you trust either team’s defense to come in and stop the other offense? I have to say I am very impressed (okay, stunned) the past two weeks we saw the Dolphins defense look like the top 5 defense of 2024 as they allowed only (423) total yards the past 2 weeks combined. The Ravens defense out of nowhere held the Rams to just (241) total yards 2 weeks ago.

Even though both defenses played a little better the past two weeks, this game comes on a short week and it’s not shocking the last 4 Thursday night prime games went “OVER” the total. When I get a matchup of two bottom-feeder defenses that rarely turn the ball over (Ravens D has 2 interceptions and 2 fumble recoveries all year and the Fins D has 6 games with 1 turnover forced or less) I expect no loss of scoring chances.

The Ravens will get some much-needed “juice” tonight with Jackson returning, and with the Dolphins finding no trouble lighting up the scoreboard at home (*minimum 27 points scored last 8 home games and exactly 27 in each of their 3 home games this season) we will take the “OVER 50 ½” in what we feel will be a high-scoring game with both QBs having huge games.

We have had a nice season and come off the nice 10-point Packers win Sunday night (we passed Monday night affair). Let’s see lots of big plays and lots of TOUCHDOWNS tonight!

FINAL PICK: TAKE THE TOTAL “OVER 50 ½”

@GARYGREENEWINS

NOTE: Get all of Gary’s Magazine NFL Stats Pages at GARYWINS.COM





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Saudi Arabia Darts Masters – Quarter-final line up, predictions for tournament

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Michael van Gerwen (AP)

The 2026 World Series of Darts continues this week with the inaugural staging of the Saudi Arabia Masters. As with all events in the series, the format sees eight of the best players from the Professional Darts Corporation (PDC) take on eight regional representatives in the last-16.

The winner of each international event earns £30,000 from a £100,000 prize fund, while the World Series of Darts Grand Final carries a total prize fund of £450,000, with £100,000 awarded to the champion.

Last week, Luke Littler was knocked out in the quarter-finals by Gerwyn Price, while Michael van Gerwen rediscovered his best form to overcome fellow Dutchman and rising star Gian van Veen 8–6 in a high-quality final.

This week, seven of the eight PDC representatives came through their last-16 matches against the invited regional opponents, though Man Lok Leung produced the shock of the round by defeating 2022 UK Open winner Danny Noppert, who is ranked tenth in the world.

First PDC event in Saudi Arabia event promises watchful eyes

As with all World Series events, the Saudi Darts Masters will see the quarter-finals, semi-finals and final all played tomorrow in one action-packed day.

There will be added eyes on this event, as it is the first PDC-sanctioned darts event held in Saudi Arabia, a country many feel is piling money into multiple sports in an attempt to distract attention from a poor human rights record, often referred to as “sportswashing”.

Quarter-finals: Match ups and predictions

Luke Littler v Gerwyn Price

‘Mighty Mike’ is top seed this week after his victory in Bahrain, where he defeated Bunting 6-4 in the quarter-finals. Their last ten matches have went 7-3 in favour of MvG. It must be said that Bunting, who was a controversial choice for this years Premier League given his poor showing in the 2025 event, does not look in great form.

If van Gerwen continues where he left off this week, he will have too much for the Englishman.

Prediction: van Gerwen 6-3

Nathan Aspinall v Man Lok Lueng

Lok Lueng is a rather unknown quantity, which made his victory over World No. 10 Danny Noppert all the more surprising. Aspinall won through his first round with an impressive 100.93 three dart average. Lueng and Aspinall have never met before.

It’s hard to see anything other than an Aspinall victory here.

Prediction: Aspinall 6-1

Gian van Veen v Luke Littler

This promises to be the match of the quarter-finals, provided van Veen can put behind him his heavy defeat to ‘the Nuke’ in last month’s World Championship final.

They have only met seven times on the PDC tour, with Littler edging the head-to-head 4-3.

If ‘The Nuke’ plays like in last weeks quarter-finals, van Veen has the game to gain a quick revenge.

Prediction: van Veen 6-5

Gerwyn Price v Luke Humphries

Price and Humphries tend to bring out the best in one another, with their last ten meetings evenly split at 5–5. Price was solid last week in his victory over Littler and, when his doubling clicks, he has the ability to drag any opponent out of their comfort zone.

With Humphries not in his richest vein of form, Price should edge this one.

Prediction: Price 6-4

Semi-final and final predictions

With van Gerwen showing something close to his best form last week and Littler exiting at the quarter-final stage, this shapes up as a tough week to predict a winner.

van Gerwen has the kinder side of the draw and should make the final at the expense of likely semi-final opponent Aspinall.

The lower half of the draw, however, contains three world champions and a runner-up, making it exceptionally difficult to predict with any real conviction who will emerge to reach the final. Littler could yet respond like a poked bear and bulldoze his way to the title, but it feels more likely that a semi-final between van Veen and Price awaits, with Price edging through to the final.

Who will win the title?

If van Gerwen reaches a second successive final and comes up against Price, he should hold the edge. The Dutchman leads their last ten meetings 6–4, a run that includes a dominant 7–2 victory in the Bahrain semi-finals last week.

Winner: Michael van Gerwen to beat Gerwyn Price 8-6





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Pegasus World Cup, live action from Tampa Bay Downs

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We are back at Gulfstream Park for the Pegasus World Cup

Busy week for Let ’em Run, live at Tampa Bay Downs Wednesday and previewing Pegasus World Cup

Let ‘em Run Review of 1/17/26

Last weekend saw a Kentucky Derby Prep race at Fair Grounds turn into a coming out party for trainer Cherie Devaux as her runners took the top 2 spots in The Lecomte. Golden Tempo and Mesquite earned points for the first Saturday in May, and also snapped an interesting trend that was broken in this edition of The Lecomte. Previous winners have only come out of having a maiden win last out, just one time in the past 25 years. So there is another example in horseracing where you need to sometimes look past the trends, and find the best horse.

Late P5 Breakdown Highlight

Our best breakdown occurred in the first race we looked at in the Late P5, when we had our bulls eye on the favorite, Medoro, in The Marie G. Krantz Memorial. The pace scenario played out as expected and set up for her, and she finished the job with a strong closing kick.

John Kostin’s Lecomte Insight

John was spot on in his deep dive in the Lecomte, where he was not impressed by the winners coming out of the Gun Runner Stakes. He had his eye squarely on both of trainer Cherie DeVaux’s runners, and gave his reasons why (check out clips attached).

Special Wednesday Podcast Preview

This week we will have a special edition of our Podcast, where our traveling handicapper, John Kostin will be live at Tampa Bay Downs on Wednesday 1/21/25 at 12:30 with special guest handicapper, Wadie Kalah. He is an avid handicapper, Tampa Bay native, and will be our “boots on the ground” with live updates, with John from Tampa Bay Downs. We will be breaking down the Late P5 sequence on the card, and any spot plays on the card that catch our attention. You can catch the Podcast live on Wednesday at 12:30 on Sports Talk Media Network, as well as multiple streaming apps and social channels.

Looking Ahead to Pegasus World Cup Day

Derby prep races take a break this weekend, as there is a huge card at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, The Pegasus World Cup Day. Included on the card are the Pegasus World Cup Turf for Fillies and Mares, and The Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational. These races, and all the races on the card, have big fields, and quality horses, with value to be had. So stay tuned, bet smart, cheer hard, fast horses equals serious fun and as always…Let ‘em Run.





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Polynesian Football HOF names Puka Nacua Player of Year

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LOS ANGELES RAMS WIDE RECEIVER PUKA NACUA
NAMED POLYNESIAN PRO FOOTBALL PLAYER OF THE YEAR, PRESENTED BY HAWAIIAN AIRLINES

The Rams WR picks up the award ahead of the Polynesian Bowl

The Polynesian Football Hall of Fame announced today that Los Angeles Rams WR, Puka Nacua has been selected as the 2025 recipient of the Polynesian Pro Football Player of the Year Award, presented by Hawaiian Airlines.

Nacua, of Samoan descent, was a fifth-round pick by the Los Angeles Rams in the 2023 NFL Draft. This past season, in 16 regular-season games, Puka hauled in 129 receptions for 1,715 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, ranking first in the league in catches and second in receiving yards. His performance earned him a First-Team All-Pro selection and the PFF Offensive Player of the Year Award. Puka is a 2019 Polynesian Bowl All-Star and was also named the 2018 Polynesian High School Football Player of the Year.

“On behalf of the Polynesian Football Hall of Fame Board of Directors, we congratulate Puka on a remarkable season,” said Polynesian Football Hall of Fame Chairman Jesse Sapolu. “He is a true source of pride for the Polynesian community.”

Other award winners

Mike Iupati was selected as the inaugural recipient of the award in 2015; Washington Commanders QB Marcus Mariota received the award in 2016; Kansas City Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster received the award in 2017 & 2018; Baltimore Ravens OT Ronnie Stanleyreceived the award in 2019; Indianapolis Colts DL DeForest Buckner received the award in 2021; San Francisco 49ers S Talanoa Hufanga in 2022; Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa won the award in 2022 and 2023; and Detroit Lions OL Penei Sewell won the award in 2024.

The formal presentation of the Award was held at the 2026 Polynesian Football Hall of Fame Celebration Dinner (January 17, 2026), along with being recognized during the 2026 Polynesian Bowl (January 16, 2025). 

The Polynesian College Football Players of the Year were voted on by the Polynesian Football Hall of Fame Selection Committee, comprised of Jack “The Throwin’ Samoan” Thompson (Chairman, former NFL player and Inaugural Inductee), Coaches Ron McBride and Dick Vermeil, former NFL player and Inaugural Inductee Olin Kreutz, Inaugural Inductee and past NFLPA president Kevin Mawae, former NFL player and Class of 2015 Inductee Ray Schoenke, sportscaster Neil Everett, NFL Network Chief National Reporter Steve Wyche, and former NFL Player and Class of 2023 Inductee Manti Te`o.

About the Polynesian Football Hall of Fame: 

The Polynesian Football Hall of Fame honors Polynesia’s greatest players, coaches, and contributors. Its permanent home is located at the Polynesian Cultural Center and was established in 2013 by Super Bowl Champions Jesse Sapolu and Ma`a Tanuvasa. There are currently 50 inductees. For more information, visit PolynesianFootballHOF.org

About the Polynesian Bowl: 

The Polynesian Bowl is a premier all-star game played annually in Honolulu, Hawai`i that features 100 of the nation’s top ranked high school seniors of Polynesian and non-Polynesian ancestry alike – many of whom have gone on to play in the NFL. Past MVPs include AJ Epenesa, Puka Nacua, Travis Hunter, and Nico Iamaleava. The game is broadcast live and in primetime on NFL Network. For more information, visit PolynesianBowl.com





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