Politics
Medicaid spending higher than budgeted but enrollment lower than anticipated
Legislators may have shortchanged the state Medicaid program in the just-passed budget, projections from the state’s top economists show.
And Medicaid funding problems may only increase in Fiscal Year 2026-27.
Members of the Social Services Estimating Conference predict Medicaid expenditures for Fiscal Year 2025-26 will exceed appropriations by $510.7 million, recently published data show.
“Most importantly, the current-year estimate produces a General Revenue deficit of $125.5 million relative to the appropriated level,” economists wrote in a summary.
Payments to the Medicaid managed-care plans that are contracted to provide long-term care services to the poor, elderly and disabled are a driving force behind the shortfall.
Economists projected the state will pay plans $7.8 billion by the end of the fiscal year on June 30 next year, or $285.4 million more than legislators budgeted. Conversely, there’s a budget surplus when it comes to payments for the Medicaid managed medical assistance plans that provide general acute care. Economists estimate those prepaid health plans will be paid $19.8 billion this year, which is $19.5 million less than what legislators budgeted.
Economists for the Governor’s Office and House and Senate routinely meet to analyze spending trends in programs funded with state dollars. Their forecasts inform legislators as they prepare and finalize the state’s operating budget. Members of the Social Services Estimating Conference, which examines spending in Medicaid programs and enrollment trends, met on June 30 and the results were posted this week.
In addition to reviewing spending for the current year, the conference analyzed Medicaid spending for the fiscal year that starts July 1, 2026. Assuming no changes in the law, Medicaid is expected to cost $37.1 billion.
That’s $2.1 billion-plus higher than what’s allocated for in the current year base budget. A base budget only includes projects paid for with recurring dollars and funded with one-time appropriations. Again, economists noted in the summary, that is $962.8 million more in general revenue than budgeted in FY 2025-26.
Again, Medicaid managed-care plans — for long-term care and general acute care — are a driving force behind the gap, accounting for more than $1.75 billion of the projected shortfall for FY 2026-27.
In addition to projecting expenses, economists forecast Medicaid enrollment, or how many people will rely on the program. Economists agreed that 4,149,320 people will receive health care through Medicaid this year. That’s about 67,000 people fewer than legislators assumed when crafting the budget.
Economists predict 4,186,782 will rely on Medicaid in Fiscal Year 2026-27.
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Christine Sexton reporting. Florida Phoenix is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Florida Phoenix maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Michael Moline for questions: [email protected].
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The policy expansion is retroactive through November 2024.
The House is expanding its paid parental leave policy when employees have a baby or adopt a child, House Speaker Daniel Perez announced.
The policy takes effect immediately and applies retroactively for parents who took leave from Nov. 19, 2024, onward.
Going forward, full-time salaried employees will get up to seven consecutive weeks of paid parental leave for maternity leave after childbirth.
The House will also offer mothers and fathers paid care and bonding leave for up to two weeks within one year after a child’s birth or adoption. The care and bonding leave “may be granted on an intermittent basis” and can’t be taken during the 60-day Legislative Session. It requires supervisor approval as well, Perez’s memo said.
It’s an expansion from the current policy, which Perez explained in the memo.
“As has been the policy of the House, an employee who is the father or mother of a natural born or adopted child will continue to be granted parental leave for a period not to exceed three months total,” Perez’s memo said.
“The employee may include in the request for parental leave one or all of the following types of leave: (new) paid parental leave when allowable; up to 240 hours of accrued sick leave; annual leave; compensatory leave; personal holiday; and leave without pay.”
To help retroactively, the House Office of Administration and Professional Development will be contacting employees to talk about their situations.
The majority of Americans don’t get paid time off for childbirth, according to a 2019 Kaiser Foundation study.
A few major employers in Florida are offering the benefit to new parents.
Publix, for instance, began offering full- and part-time employees paid parental leave in 2022.
“We frequently review our benefits to continually offer a comprehensive package to our associates,” Publix spokesperson Maria Brous told Florida Politics at the time the policy was unveiled.
Politics
Ben Albritton on the future of property tax proposals in the Senate: ‘We’re still measuring’
With eight proposals on eliminating or cutting property taxes moving through the House and Gov. Ron DeSantis maintaining that none go far enough, many are looking more and more to the Senate for signs of what, if any, change could be coming.
As he’s done in months past, Senate President Ben Albritton is advocating for a cautious, unhurried approach.
“Honest to goodness, we’re still measuring,” Albritton told reporters Monday. “We’ve looked at the House proposals, and every one of those has a certain amount of cost to it and a certain amount of impact to Floridians.”
Albritton said that while the Senate is committed to delivering financial relief to Floridians in the form of property tax cuts or rollbacks, he and others in the chamber are cognizant that many core services at the local level stand to be adversely affected if it’s done carelessly.
“Every Floridian … depends on the fact that if they call 911, somebody comes to their place, somebody comes to help them,” he said. “We’ve got to be thoughtful about that.”
Asked whether the Governor has unilateral authority to redistribute funds derived from well-to-do counties like Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Orange to 29 fiscally constrained, mostly rural counties — as DeSantis has proposed doing — Albritton’s answer was more definitive: “No.”
“The Florida Legislature (is) given the power to appropriate. The Governor is certainly the chief executive. He has the ability to veto or be supportive. He has, I would say, the ability and the opportunity to be able to share perspective in his budget request and when he lays out the budget,” he said.
“The opportunity to backfill lies in the Legislature.”
On the idea of cash-strapped counties asking the state for funding annually that they’d otherwise generate locally, Albritton said it’s “certainly a concern.”
“Do I love the idea? Of course not,” he said. “But I (believe) affordability is a challenge, and providing some relief in the property tax space is a great way to do that, and especially for (homesteaded) Floridians … that’s great.”
Albritton pushed back on the idea that eliminating property taxes would lead to a “gold rush” of wealthy transplants to the Sunshine State, stressing that he is “optimistic” about the prospect despite its potentially negative effects.
“But it’s not that simple,” he said. “And that’s one of the things that I’m finding in that here again: Don’t take down a fence until you know why it was put up.”
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