Marco Rubio favored on Kalshi to win presidency in 2028

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has surged in Republican Presidential Primary polls, and prediction market investors are taking notice of the Hialeah Republican’s appeal.

Rubio, who ran for President in 2016, has now nudged ahead of the field on Kalshi with 19% odds of becoming the next President.

Conventional wisdom has held that Vice President JD Vance would be best positioned to succeed President Donald Trump, and Vance is still strong here, with 17%.

Close behind is California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is given a 16% chance of winning by Kalshi investors.

Newsom is followed by U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia (6%), U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York (5%) and former Vice President Kamala Harris (5%).

Gov. Ron DeSantis may have some contrarian appeal in this market, as he is mired at 2%.

Rubio’s odds have improved as he has shown his ability to serve in many roles in the current administration, flashing a deadpan sense of humor while doing so.

While he is ahead with bettors in the race for the White House, he’s still seen as second to Vance in the race for the Republican nomination.

The gap is narrowing though. Vance is still a strong favorite, with 38% odds. But Rubio’s 27% is vastly improved from prior positions. He was in single digits as recently as December 2025.

DeSantis is also a long shot in this market, sitting at 4%.

Trump seems to have seen the potential of Rubio catching fire well ahead of investors in prediction markets, saying last year he thought Vance and Rubio would be “unstoppable” as a ticket, but not saying who should be the presidential nominee.