March consumer sentiment shows first decline in 2026

Consumer sentiment in Florida is beginning to decline, according to new survey numbers from March.

A survey conducted by the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research shows the consumer sentiment index fell to 78.1, down from February’s figure of 79.1. Florida’s faltering consumer confidence was in line with the national trend, which dropped 3.3 points in March.

Hector H. Sandoval, Director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF, said that as economic volatility has increased due to the Iran war, Floridians are backing off unnecessary spending.

“This month’s decline was driven primarily by reduced spending intentions and growing concerns about the national economy, particularly over the next 12 months,” Sandoval said in a news release. “In March, the labor market showed signs of softening, with job losses reported and the national unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, while annual inflation remained relatively stable at 2.4%.”

The consumer sentiment survey did show some positive signs. Opinions on personal finances compared to a year ago ticked up from 74.4 in February to 74.8 in March. Expectations of personal financial growth a year from now also showed optimism, increasing from 90 to 90.1.

But general expectations for the economy over the next year turned pessimistic, with that figure dropping from 82.3 to 80.4. Consumers’ outlook over the next five years also slipped from 79.9 to 79.5.

Sandoval acknowledged there are mixed signals among Florida consumers. But he said that given the instability in world events and wildly climbing gasoline prices, concern is to be expected.

“If geopolitical tensions persist and energy markets remain volatile, higher gasoline and energy costs could place additional pressure on household budgets. At the same time, a softer labor market may limit income growth, further weighing on consumer confidence,” Sandoval said.

“Monitoring these developments will be important to assess whether this month’s decline represents a temporary adjustment or the beginning of a broader shift in consumer sentiment.”

UF researchers contacted 314 Floridians by cellphone between Feb. 1 to March 26 to conduct the survey.