According to a recent working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research, congressional leaders outperform back benchers by up to 47% a year.

Shang-Jin Wei from Columbia University and Columbia Business School along with Yifan Zhou from Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University looked at lawmakers who ascended to leadership posts, such as Speaker of the House as well as House and Senate floor leaders, whips, and conference/caucus chairs.

Between 1995 and 2021, there were 20 such leaders who made stock trades before and after rising to their posts. Wei and Zhou observed that lawmakers underperformed benchmarks before becoming leaders, then everything suddenly changed.

“Importantly, whilst we observe a huge improvement in leaders’ trading performance as they ascend to leadership roles, the matched ‘regular’ members’ stock trading performance does not improve much,” they wrote.

Leadership’s stock market edge stems in part from their ability to set the regulatory or legislation agenda, such as deciding if and when a particular bill will be put to a vote. Setting the agenda also gives leaders advanced knowledge of when certain actions will take place.

In fact, Wei and Zhou found that leaders demonstrate much better returns on stock trades that are made when their party controls their chamber.

In addition, being a leader also increases access to non-public information. The researchers said that while companies are reluctant to share such insider knowledge, they may prioritize revealing it to leaders over rank-and-file lawmakers.

Leaders earn higher returns on companies that contribute to their campaigns or are headquartered in their states, which Wei and Zhou said could be attributable to “privileged access to firm-specific information.”

The upper echelon also influences how other members of Congress vote, and the paper found that a leader’s party is much more likely to vote for bills that help firms whose stocks the leader held, or vote against bills that harmed them. And stocks owned by leadership tend to see increases in federal contract awards, especially sole-source contracts, over the following one to two years.

“These results suggest that congressional leaders may not only trade on privileged knowledge, but also shape policy outcomes to enrich themselves,” Wei and Zhou wrote.

Stock trades by congressional leaders are even predictive, forecasting higher occurrences of positive or negative corporate news over the following year, they added. In particular, stock sales predict the number of hearings and regulatory actions over the coming year, though purchases don’t.

Investors have long suspected that Washington has a special advantage on Wall Street. That’s given rise to more ETFs with political themes, including funds that track portfolios belonging to Democrats and Republicans in Congress.

And Paul Pelosi, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, even has a cult following among some investors who mimic his stock moves.

Congress has tried to crack down on members’ stock holdings. The STOCK Act of 2012 requires more timely disclosures, but some lawmakers want to ban trading completely.

A bipartisan group of House members is pushing legislation that would prohibit members of Congress, their spouses, dependent children, and trustees from trading individual stocks, commodities, or futures.

And this past week, a discharge petition was put forth that would force a vote in the House if it gets enough signatures.

“If leadership wants to put forward a bill that would actually do that and end the corruption, we’re all for it,” said Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., on social media on Tuesday. “But we’re tired of the partisan games. This is the most bipartisan bipartisan thing in U.S. history, and it’s time that the House of Representatives listens to the American people.”

“Our expectation of solid growth and easier monetary and fiscal policies supports a risk-on tilt in our multi-asset portfolios. We remain overweight stocks and credit,” said Sylvia Sheng, global multi-asset strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.

“We are playing the powerful trends in place and are bullish through the end of next year,” said David Bianco, Americas chief investment officer at DWS. “For now we are not contrarians.”

“Start the year with sufficient exposure, even over-exposure to equities, predominantly in emerging market equities,” said Nannette Hechler-Fayd’herbe, EMEA chief investment officer at Lombard Odier. “We don’t expect a recession in 2026 to unfold.”

Those assessments came from Bloomberg News interviews with 39 investment managers across the US, Asia and Europe, including at BlackRock Inc., Allianz Global Investors, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Franklin Templeton.

More than three-quarters of the allocators were positioning portfolios for a risk-on environment through 2026. The thrust of the bet is that resilient global growth, further developments in artificial intelligence, accommodative monetary policy and fiscal stimulus will deliver outsize returns in all fashion of global equity markets. 

The call is not without risks, including simply its pervasiveness among the respondents, along with their overall high degree of assuredness. The view among the institutional investors also aligns with that of sell-side strategists around the globe. 

Should the bullishness play out as expected, it would deliver a stunning fourth straight year of bumper returns for the MSCI All-Country World Index. That would extend a run that’s added $42 trillion in market capitalization since the end of 2022 — the most value created for equity investors in history. 

That’s not to say the optimism is without merit. The artificial intelligence trade has added trillions in market value to dozens of firms plying the industry, but just three years after ChatGPT broke into the public consciousness, AI remains in the early phase of development.

No Tech Panic

The buy-side managers largely rejected the idea that the technology has blown a bubble in equity markets. While many acknowledged some pockets of froth in unprofitable tech names, 85% of managers said valuations among the Magnificent Seven and other AI heavyweights are not overly inflated. Fundamentals back the trade, they said, which marks the beginning of a new industrial cycle. 

“You can’t call it a bubble when you’re seeing tech companies deliver a massive earnings beat. In fact, earnings from the sector have outstripped all other US stocks,” said Anwiti Bahuguna, global co-chief investment officer at Northern Trust Asset Management.

As such, investors expect the US to remain the engine of the rally. 

“American exceptionalism is far from dead,” said Jose Rasco, chief investment officer at HSBC Americas. “As artificial intelligence continues to spread around the globe, the US will be a key participant.” 

Most investors echoed the sentiment expressed by Helen Jewell, international chief investment officer of fundamental equities at BlackRock, who suggested also searching outside the US for meaningful upside.

“The US is where the high-return high-growth companies are, so we have to be realistic about that. But those are already reflected in valuations, and there are probably more interesting opportunities outside the US,” she said.

International Boom

Profits matter above all else for equity investors, and huge bumps in government spending from Europe to Asia have stoked estimates for strong gains in earnings.

“We have begun to see a meaningful broadening of earnings momentum, both across market capitalizations and across regions, including Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea,” said Wellington Management equity strategist Andrew Heiskell. “Looking into 2026, we see clear potential for a revival of earnings growth in Europe and a wider range of emerging markets.”

India is one of the most compelling opportunities for 2026, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, global co-head and co-chief investment officer of multi-asset solutions.

“We see real potential for India to become the Korea-like re-rating story of 2026, a market that transitions from tactical allocation to strategic core exposure in global portfolios,” she said. 

Nelson Yu, head of equities at AllianceBernstein, said he sees improvements outside of the US that will mandate allocations. He noted governance reform in Japan, capital discipline in Europe and recovering profitability in some emerging markets.

Small Cap Optimism

At the sector level, the investors are looking for AI proxies, notably among clean energy providers that can help meet the technology’s ravenous demand for power. Smaller stocks are also finding favor.

“The earnings outlook has brightened for small-capitalization stocks, industrials and financials,” said Stephen Dover, chief market strategist and head of Franklin Templeton Institute. “Small-cap stocks and industrials, which are typically more highly leveraged than the rest of the market, will see profitability rise as the Federal Reserve trims interest rates and debt servicing costs fall.”

Over at Santander Asset Management, Francisco Simón sees earnings growth of more than 20% for US small caps after years of underperformance. Reflecting the optimism, the Russell 2000 Index of such equities recently hit a record high.

Meanwhile, the combination of low valuations and strong fundamentals makes health care one of the most compelling contrarian opportunities in a bullish cycle, a preponderance of managers said.  

“Health-care related sectors can surprise to the upside in the US markets,” said Jim Caron, chief investment officer of cross-asset solutions at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “This is a mid-term election year and policy may at the margin support many companies. Valuations are still attractive and have a lot of catch up to do.”

Virtually every allocator struck at least a note of caution about what lies ahead. The top worry among them was a rekindling of inflation in the US. If the Fed is forced by rising prices to abruptly pause or even end its easing cycle, the potential for turbulence is high.

“A scenario — which is not our base case — whereby US inflation rebounds in 2026 would constitute a double whammy for multi-asset funds as it would penalize both stocks and bonds. In this sense it would be much worse than an economic slowdown,” said Amélie Derambure, senior multi-asset portfolio manager at Amundi SA. 

“The way investors are headed for 2026, they need to have the Fed on their side,” she added.

Trade Caution

Another worry is around President Donald Trump’s capriciousness, particularly when it comes to trade. Any flareup in his trade spats that fuels inflation through heightened tariffs would weigh on risk assets. 

Oil and gas producers remain unloved by the group, though that could change if a major geopolitical event upends supply lines. While such an outcome would bolster those sectors, the overall impact would likely be negative for risk assets, they said.

“Any geopolitical situation that can affect the price of oil is what will have the largest impact on the financial markets. Clearly both the Middle East and the Ukraine/Russia situations can impact oil prices,” said Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

Multiple respondents flagged European autos as a “no-go” area for 2026, citing intense competitive pressure from Chinese carmakers, margin compression and structural challenges in the transition to electric vehicles. 

“Personally I don’t believe for a minute that there will be a rebound in the sector,” said Isabelle de Gavoty at Allianz GI. 

Outside of those worries, most asset managers simply believe that there’s little reason to fret about the upward momentum being interrupted — outside, of course, from the contrarian signal such near-uniform bullishness sends.

“Everyone seems to be risk-on at the moment, and that worries me a bit in the sense that the concentration of positions creates less tolerance for adverse surprises,” said Amundi’s Derambure.  

President Donald Trump raised potential antitrust concerns for Netflix Inc.’s planned acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., noting that the market share of the combined entity may pose problems.