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Louis Gerstner, CEO credited with turning around IBM, dies at 83

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Louis Gerstner, who took over International Business Machines Corp. when it was on its deathbed and resuscitated it as a technology industry leader, died Saturday. He was 83.

IBM chairman and CEO Arvind Krishna announced Gerstner’s death in an email sent Sunday to its employees, but didn’t provide a cause of death.

Gerstner’s nine-year tenure as chairman and CEO of the company known as “Big Blue” is often used as a case study in corporate leadership.

On April Fool’s Day, 1993, he became the first outsider to run IBM, which was facing a choice of bankruptcy or dismemberment after a period when it had been the undisputed leader in personal computers and mainframes. He pivoted the Armonk, New York-based company toward business services and away from hardware production, reversing a move to break up the company into a dozen or more semi-autonomous units — “Baby Blues” — in pursuit of greater profits.

Gerstner slashed costs and sold off unproductive assets, including real estate and IBM’s collection of fine art. He fired 35,000 of the 300,000 employees, who had become accustomed to a culture of lifetime tenure based on principles established by former CEO Thomas Watson Sr. in the early 20th century. 

He stressed company-wide teamwork to replace the tradition of loyalty to various divisions, and he pegged compensation to corporate performance rather than individual results. To meet performance goals, he emphasized regular accountability rather than waiting for yearly performance reviews.

“People do what you inspect, not what you expect,” he said.

Gerstner’s key change was to scrap IBM’s culture of selling bundled products that only worked with other IBM goods, from PCs to operating systems to software. Products he considered losers were jettisoned. He pulled the plug on OS/2, an operating system intended to challenge Microsoft’s Windows that hadn’t proved popular with customers.

“His leadership during that period reshaped the company,” Krishna wrote. “Not by looking backward, but by focusing relentlessly on what our clients would need next.” 

Focus on Middleware

IBM put its focus on so-called middleware — software for databases, systems management and transaction management. The company became the impartial integrator for companies’ networks and systems, happy to help whether the hardware used had the IBM name on it or not.

Gerstner made an early bet on the internet and e-business, which he guessed correctly would put less emphasis on personal computers and more on servers, routers and other more sophisticated equipment that would benefit from IBM’s service know-how and involve buyers familiar to IBM’s sales force, such as chief technology officers.

Later in his tenure, he also made some strategic acquisitions such as the $2.2 billion paid for Lotus Development Corp., whose Notes product was vital for helping IBM customers collaborate on an enterprise-wide basis.

The switch in focus from hardware to services resulted in an increase in services revenue from $7.4 billion in 1992 to $30 billion in 2001. IBM’s share price went from $13 to $80 in his nine years as CEO, adjusted for splits,.and IBM’s market value rose from $29 billion to about $168 billion in that period.

“If I had a vote, the most significant legacy of my tenure at IBM would be the truly integrated entity that has been created,” he wrote in Who Says Elephants Can’t Dance? Leading a Great Enterprise through Dramatic Change (2002). “It certainly was the most difficult and risky change I made.”

Louis Vincent Gerstner Jr. was born on March 1, 1941, in Mineola, New York, to Louis Gerstner Sr., a milk truck driver, and Marjorie Rutan, a secretary and college administrator. He was one of four brothers.

He graduated from Mineola’s Chaminade High School, a competitive Catholic institution. He got an engineering degree from Dartmouth College and an MBA from Harvard University.

McKinsey Partner

After Harvard he joined McKinsey & Co. as a consultant. He made partner in four years and spent 12 years there before taking a job with American Express.

He worked for the credit-card division there, then took over travel-related services. Under his leadership, Amex, which offered primarily a travel card at that point, increased its presence in retail stores and created premium cards that permitted customers to carry unpaid balances.

With his way to the top of management at Amex blocked by CEO James D. Robinson III, Gerstner agreed to run RJR Nabisco Inc., where he stayed four years before joining IBM. His primary focus at RJR Nabisco was to reduce the $25 billion in debt produced by the leveraged buyout that created the tobacco and consumer products firm. 

IBM’s board began its search for a new CEO after it forced out John Akers in January 1993, just as the company was reporting its largest annual loss. In selecting Gerstner, the board chose managerial experience over computer expertise. (Gerstner’s brother Richard had worked for IBM for 30 years and headed the division that included personal computers.)

From Gerstner’s first day in April 1993 until the January 2002 announcement that he was stepping down, IBM’s shares rose ninefold while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 154%. Sam Palmisano succeeded him, first as CEO, then as chairman when Gerstner retired at the end of 2002. 

In 2003, Gerstner became chairman of the Carlyle Group, the Washington-based private-equity firm. He oversaw the firm’s expansion into Asia and Latin America and early preparations for going public, which it did in 2012. He retired in 2008, remaining as a senior adviser.

With his wife, Robin, he had two children. Their son, Louis III, died in 2013 after a choking accident in a restaurant.

Through Gerstner Philanthropies, the family has supported biomedical research, environmental and education programs, and social services in New York City, Boston and Florida’s Palm Beach County. The family has been a longtime supporter of the Mayo Clinic



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With Trump 2.0, markets and the media knew they would get their fair share of double-takes. For me, the image that springs to mind the most was the moment in July when the President of the United States showed up on the doorstep of the Fed, literally. Armed with a disputed list of costs for Fed building renovations, President Trump said that “generally” speaking he would fire a project manager who had gone over budget. The Fed’s Powell, looking visibly uncomfortable, had already provided a breakdown explaining that the project was on track, and he highlighted that Trump had included in his costings a building which was already complete. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve and the president stood stiffly, side-by-side, in matching hard hats, bickering on a building site, for all the world to see.

Trump’s visit to the Fed was only the fourth in U.S. history—the tradition is that the credibility of the central bank and the White House are both strengthened if neither attempts to interfere with the other.

The image summed up the conversations (off the record and, in recent months, increasingly nervously) I regularly have with sources—either within the Fed or at agencies working closely with the financial institution. In my catch-ups with these 10 or so people since January, their mood has shifted. Early on, there was optimism that the focus of politicians would pass (as it so often does). But as the months rolled by, they mentally battened down their hatches against an onslaught of insults, scrutiny, and unprecedented criticism. 

In the run-up to the election, Trump claimed Powell acted politically by lowering interest rates to help President Biden (an insult, given the legally mandated autonomy of the organization). Vice president JD Vance lobbied for more political control over the base interest rate.

While some economists later echoed Trump in saying the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) should cut rates, the public outpouring of Trump’s fury was extraordinary: Trump called him “Too Late Powell,” a “stubborn mule,” a “major loser,” and a “stupid person.” 

Wall Street grew uncomfortable with the attacks. Even if it wanted to see rate cuts, it didn’t want to see the central bank’s independence threatened. When Trump pulled back on the notion of firing Powell, he instead focused on other members of the FOMC. In September, he attempted to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook via social media, alleging she made false statements on a mortgage application. She denies that and has taken her case to the Supreme Court. Hearings begin in January.

Other autonomous agencies got the message: If Trump is willing to take on the Fed, they might be next.

“How much can truly change under a single administration?” I asked one source. “Three years is a long time yet,” was the response. 

The January question

Since January, many federal employees inside and outside the Fed have quietly decided that discretion is the better part of valor. To the relief of Wall Street, the Fed’s most prominent figures haven’t gone to ground entirely.

Outside of monetary policy leaders have publicly stuck to the script when it comes to political questions. Time and again, Powell insisted that base rate decisions are made exclusively and entirely on data pertaining to the economy. On the elephant in the room that is January’s court hearings over the firing of Cook, Powell said it would be “inappropriate” to comment. 

While the temperature has dropped for now, sources say, they’re preparing for the mercury to start rising again early next year. The reasoning that an independent Fed leads to better economic outcomes is widely accepted. But if Trump succeeds in ousting Cook, then the Fed’s autonomy looks less secure—potentially leading to inflationary sentiment.

Analysts’ concerns over the Fed’s independence don’t descend as low as comparisons to President Nixon and Arthur Burns however, when an alignment on monetary policy between the White House and the Fed plunged the economy into a crisis.

Economists more widely believe that there are too many defenders of independence—and too much scrutiny from the markets—to allow politicians to attempt to fundamentally alter the trajectory of the Fed, especially if Jerome Powell sticks around as a governor.

Selective silence is a tactic on which it seems everyone, at last, can agree. Critics argue that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)—with its mysterious dot-plots and the breadcrumbs its members occasionally drop into speeches—engages the attention of Wall Street a little too much. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been lobbying for a “backseat” Federal Reserve, something insiders will be only too happy to oblige. 

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve system is mandated to answer to Congress and, by extension, the American public. In an era of economic volatility, with business leaders and consumers alike unsure of the path forward, a void of insight from key decision-makers could be damaging and frustrating. 

There’s also been a delicate balance to strike between pushing back on claims about bias within the Fed and reminding the public that the Fed is focused mainly on, and is guided by, its mandate. 

The next Fed chairman

Another awkward question is who’s actually in charge. Secretary Bessent has made it clear that in the search for a new Federal Reserve leader, he wants to appoint a “shadow chair”, someone to be the true power at the Fed while Powell is increasingly overlooked as he nears the end of his term in May.

It was not a popular idea, but the White House has proceeded with a very public recruitment process ever since. Potentially impacted parties are keeping an eye on frontrunners, they said, without becoming overly invested in outcomes that may never come to pass. 

One concern is that the broadcast nature of the selection process means pressure is already piling onto the shoulders of the would-be nominee, who must wrangle expectations without having accumulated much real influence within the central bank. 

Wall Street is also preparing for some early hiccups. Until the past few meetings, Powell’s run had been one of steady consensus. As UBS’s Paul Donovan said in a note to clients this week: “What is perhaps more interesting today is the extent of division within the Federal Reserve. This is potentially storing up trouble for Powell’s successor as Fed Chair. A Fed that is prepared to dissent under Powell may be more inclined to dissent under a Fed chair who commands less respect in the institution, and the wider financial markets.”

Whatever the creases that will need to be ironed out under a new Federal regime, Trump’s cabinet seems keen for it to happen behind closed doors. For federal staffers who want to crack on without the weight of the White House breathing down their necks, the diversion of that attention can’t come soon enough.



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Job market outlook 2026: ‘uncomfortably slow growth’ in the first half, then upward reversal later

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The labor market cooled during a rollercoaster year for the economy and financial markets, and 2026 should start off slow but then improve later in the year, according to JPMorgan.

In a forecast published earlier this month, economists at the bank attributed 2025’s loss of jobs momentum to business uncertainty created by President Donald Trump’s tariffs and trade policies.

“As a result both long-term and short-term business planning has remained difficult, and layoff and hiring rates have been low,” Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan, said in the report. “Businesses are hesitant to make sweeping changes to either grow or shrink their payrolls when they’re unsure what the next six months might hold.”

In addition, Trump’s immigration crackdown and deportation campaign have been more aggressive than expected, JPMorgan added.

This reduced supply of workers plus the relatively flat labor participation rate flat mean that the monthly job gains needed to keep unemployment steady could tumble to just 15,000 from 50,000. Despite the lower breakeven rate, unemployment will creep higher.

“The first half of 2026 will likely deliver uncomfortably slow growth in the labor market, with unemployment peaking at 4.5% in early 2026,” JPMorgan said, a week before the Labor Department released the delayed November jobs report that showed the rate climbing to a four-year high of 4.6%.

The bank blamed sluggish growth due to the labor supply shrinking from deportations, an aging population and fewer visas for workers and students.

Another factor in the early-2026 slump is artificial intelligence, which has spurred massive investment in equipment, software and data centers—but not so much job creation.

While there are still no signs yet of widespread job losses because of AI, some of the sectors most exposed to the technology have seen slower gains, JPMorgan pointed out.

But then the labor market will reverse course in the second half of the year, economists predicted, citing a more consistent tariff policy, tax cuts from Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and additional rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

“We believe supports are coming together that will arrest this labor market slowdown and revive activity growth later next year,” Feroli said. 

JPMorgan sees GDP growth in 2026 at 1.8%, with one-in-three odds of a recession, and inflation remaining sticky at 2.7%. 

Separately, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan expects Trump to de-escalate trade tensions next year, telling CBS News’ Face the Nation that an average tariff rate of 15% for a broad group of counties is “not a huge impact.”

Meanwhile, AI could be a wildcard that provides yet another boost next year.

“Usually, it takes several years for general purpose technologies like AI to boost productivity,” Feroli added. “A quicker realization of efficiency gains could lead to stronger GDP growth than expected.”

But that optimism contrasts with continued warnings from computer scientist and “godfather of AI” Geoffrey Hinton, who has said AI will replace more and more human workers.

During an interview on CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday, he was asked for his 2026 predictions after declaring 2025 a pivotal year for AI.

“I think we’re going to see AI get even better,” Hinton replied. “It’s already extremely good. We’re going to see it having the capabilities to replace many, many jobs. It’s already able to replace jobs in call centers, but it’s going to be able to replace many other jobs.”



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North Korea’s Kim tests long-range cruise missiles over West Sea

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North Korea said it conducted a long-range strategic cruise missile launch drill over the West Sea on Sunday as it continues to showcase its weapons capabilities amid regional tensions.

Leader Kim Jong Un observed the drill, which was carried out to test the counterattack readiness and combat capabilities of long-range missile units, train missile operators in maneuvering and fire-mission procedures, and to verify the reliability of the strategic weapons system, Korean Central News Agency reported Monday.

The strategic cruise missiles flew along preset trajectories over waters off the country’s west coast for 10,199 seconds and 10,203 seconds — around 2 hours and 50 minutes each — before striking their targets, the state news agency said.

The results of the exercise provided a practical verification and a clear demonstration of the reliability and combat power of North Korea’s strategic counterattack capabilities, Kim said, expressing “great satisfaction” with the outcome, according to the report.

Read Also: North Korea’s Kim Seeks Arms Modernization Before Party Congress

He added that regularly testing the reliability and rapid response readiness of components of the country’s nuclear deterrent, and continuing to demonstrate their power, amounted to a responsible exercise of self-defense and a means of deterring war in the current security environment.

Kim stressed that the ruling party and government would continue to make all-out efforts to further strengthen and expand the country’s nuclear combat forces, KCNA reported.

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