Thailand’s ambitious goal of attracting as many as 9 million tourists from China this year looks in doubt, after the kidnapping of a Chinese actor started driving mainland visitors to the safety of Japan and Singapore.

Flight cancellations to the country that brands itself as the “Land of Smiles” surged 94% last month, according to Bloomberg Intelligence research, as more Chinese opted instead to take their families to the ski fields and hot springs of Japan during Lunar New Year. Trips to Thailand in the first two weeks of February were still lagging behind last year’s levels, the note showed.

News of Chinese actor Wang Xing’s kidnapping to Myanmar through Thailand and his subsequent rescue prompted a wave of Lunar New Year trip cancellations by mainland travelers. Tourism-reliant Thailand has since cracked down on scammers and criminal rings that use the country as a transit hub to traffic unwitting victims to work in cyber-scam centers. But so far it’s done little to ease travelers’ fears

“Safety concerns do have enough weight with Chinese tourists to make them think twice about travel to Thailand,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Zhu said. “Uptake of bad news has been far higher than steps it’s taken to boost safety, which will make its reputation repair a likely uphill battle.”

Flight bookings from China to Japan have, meanwhile, more than doubled in the first quarter from a year earlier, thanks also to the weaker yen and airfares as low as $150 from Shanghai to Tokyo. That helped Japan overtake Thailand as the top overseas destination for Chinese holidaymakers during the eight-day holiday this year. Visa-free entries to Singapore and Malaysia have also drawn Chinese tourists away from Thailand.

Japan alone attracted a record 980,000 Chinese tourists last month — more than double from last year, according to the Japan National Tourism Organization. Meanwhile, Thailand said nearly 711,000 Chinese had visited this year through Feb. 2.

Bangkok has shut power to operators of illicit businesses in Myanmar, while working with its neighbor to clamp down on the scam centers, from where more than 1,000 foreign workers, including several hundred Chinese, were recently freed. 

Whether the crackdowns will help win back more Chinese tourists, the top source of foreign receipts in Thailand’s tourism industry, remains to be seen. Tourism, which accounts for about 12% of the country’s gross domestic product and a fifth of total employment, is forecast to bring in an estimated $55 billion this year.

It’s unlikely that Thailand will be able to hit the top range of its target for Chinese visitors, and will struggle to surpass the 8.8 million it proposes at the lower end if it doesn’t swiftly address safety concerns of Chinese tourists by the end of this quarter, Zhu wrote in the note. If the problem persists through 2025, Thailand may struggle to attract more than 7.5 million Chinese arrivals, he said.

There are some signs that concerns are abating, but it’s still too early to call a turnaround in sentiment. While bookings from China to Thailand for March are still down about 10% week-on-week, flight demand for April and May are showing growth of more than 3%, according to marketing firm China Trading Desk, which tracks the mainland travel market.

“The fear over travel to Thailand has ebbed,” said China Trading Desk Chief Executive Officer Subramania Bhatt. “Still, Thailand is way off compared to 2019, while both Malaysia and Singapore have a very strong recovery of Chinese visitors.”

Beyond shutting down scam operations, Thailand’s government and industry need to do more to develop tourism beyond the popular destinations such as capital Bangkok, the beaches of Phuket and the jungles of Chiang Mai, said Thai Hotel Association President Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun.

“Even Thai people love to go to Japan instead of going to Phuket domestically,” he said. “We have lost good quality travelers favoring the currency exchange. We need to do more, offer more destinations to attract visitors.”