Let ‘em Run Final Kentucky Derby Prep Weekend Breakdown

The Road to the Kentucky Derby and Oaks Comes Into Focus

Okay all our handicapping friends, this is it; after this weekend, the fields will be squarely in our vision with all potential runners lining up for the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby. Connections will make decisions and handicappers will be up late pouring over past performances. And Let ‘em Run will be providing our insight into all the races. Today we take a look at the Kentucky Derby prep races as well as the Late P5 at Aqueduct, which includes a loaded field for the Wood Memorial.

Keeneland Preview

Friday April 3 / Race 9 5:16 EST The Ashland

1 1/16 Dirt Gr1 75K
We like #2 Percy’s Bar 7-2 to beat them to the wire with jockey Luan Machado aboard. She has held her own in Grade 1 company, and punches her ticket here to the Kentucky Oaks.

Saturday April 4 / Race 11 6:22 EST The Blue Grass

1 ⅛ Dirt Gr1 1,250,000K
No political statement here, but we are landing on #4 Reagan’s Honor 5-2 to get the job done with top jockey Jose Ortiz in the saddle for Chrie DeVaux. Expect this runner to be forwardly placed throughout, and should lead them all the way.

Santa Anita Preview

Saturday April 4 / Race 6 5:42 EST The Santa Anita Oaks

1 1/16 Dirt Gr2 200K
An interesting race, where in spite of what the odds say, we feel the race is evenly matched… so we are price shopping. That gets us to the #1 Forced Entry 4-1, with jockey Mike “Big Money” Smith up for trainer Bob Baffert. Draw a line through her initial turf race, and she will sit a nice trip on the rail and tip out around the turn to close strongly to the wire

Saturday April 4 / Race 10 7:46 EST The Santa Anita Derby

1 ⅛ Dirt Gr1 500K
We were always a fan of jockey Emisael Jaramillo when he was the leading rider at Gulfstream Park, and he has had continued success on the west coast. That lands us on #4 Robusta 8-1 who will likely be on the lead from the 1st jump. Trainer Doug O’Neill lured Jaramillo off of the #1 Cherokee Nation 5-2, so we think O’Neill’s runner is sitting on a big race.

Aqueduct Late P5 Breakdown

Race 8 4:21 EST 1 Mile Dirt Alw50K

This is our “Play of the Day” on the #5 Morlock 6-1 for super trainer Linda Rice. She hits at 30% 2nd off the claim, and with a 121 Timeform USPace Early figure, we figure her go to jockey Jose Lezcano will put this runner on the lead from the outset.

Race 9 4:53 EST 7 Furlongs Dirt Alw 83KN1X

Hard to get past BRISnet.com #1 Prime Power runner #1 Incentive Pay 9-5. This is 2nd off an extended layoff after falling 3rd behind Ferocious and Chancer McPatrick in the Gr1 Hopeful two back. The #4 Bold Strength 6-1, and #8 Cool Andy 10-1 offer some value plays if your shopping around.

Race 10 5:25 EST The Distaff

7 Furlongs Dirt Gr3 150K
Another race at the tricky distance of 7 furlongs, where experience counts for both the horse and jockey. We are taking a shot with a jockey who rides 7 furlongs like he has a clock in his head, Kendrick Caramouche on the #6 Hold Your Breath 9-2. This runner has tried Aqueduct 1x, and clearly liked it. The likely favorites at post time, the #1 Takethemoneyhoney 7-2 and #7 Immersive 7-5 will demand attention.

Race 11 5:56 EST The Gazelle

1 ⅛ Dirt Gr3 200K
A lot of arrows point to our selection, #1 Paradise 5-2 with jockey Manny Franco aboard for trainer Brad Cox. She is #1 Prime Power, has the running style that fits the race (E/P6), and should be in front from the jump.

Race 12 6:34 EST The Wood Memorial

1 ⅛ Dirt Gr2 750K
This shapes up to be a fabulous edition of this year’s Wood Memorial. If the rail is a good place to be, we would strongly recommend the #1 Napoleon Solo 7-2. The “other” Chad, trainer Chad Summers, scratched this runner for this spot, and we think that matters…a lot. You know jockey Paco Lopez will be gunning it from the start. A case could be made for several runners here in this race… so pick your poison.

Tune In and Let ‘em Run Ahead of Huge Kentucky Derby prep weekend

So there you go, use our opinions, with your opinions, and make the magic happen. Be sure to tune into the big Saturday Show at 12:30, which will allow us to update our selections after scratches and changes in track conditions. Join myself and partner John “The Traveling Handicapper” on Sports Talk Media Network, and multiple streaming apps and social networks. And in the end “bet smart, cheer hard, fast horses can lead to serious fun, and always, Let ‘em Run.”