Latest UNF poll shows initiative to eliminate property taxes failing at ballot box

A majority of voters in Florida support a proposed amendment to the Florida Constitution that would phase out most property taxes over a decade — but not the supermajority necessary for the measure to pass.

New polling from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) found that among likely Midterm voters in the Sunshine State, 56% are for gradually eliminating taxes on homesteaded property over 10 years, not counting taxes for schools and emergency services.

Just 35% opposed the idea, which could appear on a ballot this year through legislation House Republicans pushed to passage last month.

While support for the measure is strong, it isn’t at the 60% level required for constitutional amendments.

Approval of the change is markedly higher among Republicans (76%) than Democrats (27%) or independents (56%). There is also a smaller but notable difference between homeowners and renters, with 58% of homeowners supporting the change compared to 47% of those who don’t hold the deed to their domiciles.

Eliminating or reducing property taxes is high on the to-do lists of Gov. Ron DeSantis and House Speaker Daniel Perez, the latter of whom announced seven bills in October aimed at advancing ballot measures to effectuate changes of varying impacts.

Subsequent studies have shown that the effects on local government budgets would be enormous, with 116 municipalities — including relatively big cities like Tampa, St. Petersburg, Fort Lauderdale, Pembroke Pines and Hollywood — unable to generate enough general revenue to cover their 2024 public safety expenditures under a full homestead exemption.

A recent study by the Florida League of Cities found that eliminating or sharply expanding Florida’s homestead exemption would drastically slash municipal property tax revenues, creating severe budget gaps that threaten funding for core services.

The losses would be highly uneven, hitting smaller, rural, coastal and residentially dependent communities hardest, where narrow tax bases and infrastructure costs leave little capacity to absorb cuts.

And without state replacement revenue, researchers found, cities would likely face millage hikes of up to 70%, sharp sales tax increases, weakened bond ratings and widening disparities in local service levels across Florida.

The PORL poll found 36% of voters strongly support the tax phase-out proposal, with 19% saying they “somewhat support” the change. Conversely, 20% strongly oppose it, with 15% “somewhat” opposing the measure and 10% either saying they don’t know or declining to answer.

PORL surveyed 786 likely Midterm voters Feb. 21–March 2 by phone or text. A voter was considered “likely” if they cast ballots in at least one of the 2020, 2022 or 2024 General Elections. Pollsters eliminated respondents who said they would probably or definitely not vote in 2026.

Survey data were weighted in two stages — first by education, then by party registration, age, race, ethnicity, sex, geography and 2024 presidential vote — using voter file data, election results and Census estimates to match Florida’s likely Midterm electorate.

The poll had a 4.4-percentage-point margin of error, with greater uncertainty attributed to smaller subgroups.

The Primary Election is on Aug. 18, followed by the General Election on Nov. 3.