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Last Call for 9.3.25 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

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Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

Florida Democrats are thumping their chests after notching lopsided wins in Tuesday’s Special Elections.

LaVon Bracy Davis grabbed nearly 73% of the vote in Senate District 15 while RaShon Young swept House District 40 with 75%.

Party operatives wasted no time casting the results as proof that voters are souring on Republicans — pointing to “overperformance” of 22 and 15 points beyond 2024 margins and drawing a straight line to congressional battlegrounds held by incumbent Republican U.S. Reps. Anna Paulina Luna, Cory Mills and María Elvira Salazar.

The DCCC said the results are putting the GOP trio on notice, arguing the numbers show Democrats are poised to break through in 2026.

“Luna, Mills, and Salazar ignore the writing on the wall at their own peril. At every turn, Democrats have significantly overperformed and this election is simply the latest indication that Floridians are tired of Republicans’ lies, allegations, and false promises. Voters want results – not the lip-service, headline chasing, and scandals that Florida’s Republican delegation delivers. In 2026, Floridians are going to finally show Luna, Mills, and Salazar the door,” DCCC spokesperson Madison Andrus said in a news release.

The celebratory release echoes Democrats’ narrative following closer-than-expected — but by no means close — losses in Special Congressional Elections earlier this year. The key difference: these were safe Democratic seats that everyone expected Democrats to win.

Special Elections, especially in off-year contexts, tend to magnify partisan bases rather than mirror November electorates. And while Mills may have heard Bracy Davis’ and Young’s warning shots in his Central Florida district, it’s questionable whether Salazar or Luna would have heard anything within their South Florida and Pinellas-based districts, respectively.

That doesn’t mean the numbers are meaningless — Democrats have struggled to show life statewide, and any narrative of momentum is a commodity they’ll happily bank. Still, the jump from a pair of home-field blowouts to a statewide comeback story carries about as much water as the average “takeaways” rundown on the Gators’ opener vs. LIU.

Evening Reads

—”Jeffrey Epstein accusers join lawmakers to push for full release of documents” via Amy B. Wang, Mariana Alfaro, Beth Reinhard, Marianna Sotomayor and Kadia Goba of The Washington Post

­—”How Donald Trump lost the podcast bros” via Christian Paz of Vox

—”How the Democrats keep copying the MAGA influencer playbook (and failing)” via Tina Nguyen of The Verge

—“The wrong way to win back the working class” via Jonathan Chait of The Atlantic

—”Ron DeSantis administration pushes to eliminate all vaccine mandates in Florida” via Christine Sexton of the Florida Phoenix

—”States go their own (and contradictory) ways on vaccine policy” via Emily Baumgaertner Nunn of The New York Times

—”Paul Renner, former Florida House speaker, announces run for Governor” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

—“‘Ill-advised decision’: DeSantis says Renner shouldn’t have run for Governor” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

—”DeSantis says crosswalk art is a ‘safety hazard.’ Studies say otherwise.” via Nakylah Carter of the Tampa Bay Times

—”Why I decided to go to the doctor” via Chris Cillizza of So What

Quote of the Day

“Governor of what?”

— Gov. Ron DeSantis, on former House Speaker Paul Renner’s entry into the 2026 fray.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Today, he’s celebrating a campaign launch, but the magic eight ball (and the Governor) are ready to serve Paul Renner an On Second Thought.

Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo is going all in on a push to end all vaccine mandates. From our end of the bar, it looks like all he wants is an Attention or two.

State-level economic indicators may be positive, but a new UF survey indicates consumers see a Fiscal Cliff on the horizon.

Bill Day’s Latest

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Rays try to keep winning streak, playoff hopes alive

The Tampa Bay Rays continue to chase a wild-card spot as they conclude a series against another wild-card contender, the Seattle Mariners, tonight (7:35 p.m. ET, FanDuel Sports Net Sun).

After 138 games, the Rays are back where they started, at the .500 mark and still working to earn a postseason spot. Tampa Bay is 3.5 games out of the final wild card spot, currently held by Seattle. The Rays have won five straight games, including the first two games of the series against Seattle.

Last night, Tampa’s 22-year-old star, Junior Caminero, reached a pair of milestones, hitting his 40th home run of the season and collecting his 100th run batted in.

After concluding the series against the Mariners, the Rays will host another wild-card hopeful, the Cleveland Guardians, for four games before heading to Chicago to face the White Sox and Cubs for three games each.

The Rays will send veteran Adrian Houser to the mound tonight. Houser joined the Rays at the trade deadline from the White Sox. Tampa Bay has won each of the last three games in which he has started, but Houser has earned only one victory as a member of his new team.

___

Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.


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Debra Tendrich turns ‘pain into policy’ with sweeping anti-domestic violence proposal

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Florida could soon rewrite how it responds to domestic violence.

Lake Worth Democratic Rep. Debra Tendrich has filed HB 277, a sweeping proposal aimed at modernizing the state’s domestic violence laws with major reforms to prevention, first responder training, court safeguards, diversion programs and victim safety.

It’s a deeply personal issue to Tendrich, who moved to Florida in 2012 to escape what she has described as a “domestic violence situation,” with only her daughter and a suitcase.

“As a survivor myself, HB 277 is more than legislation; it is my way of turning pain into policy,” she said in a statement, adding that months of roundtables with survivors and first responders “shaped this bill from start to finish.”

Tendrich said that, if passed, HB 277 or its upper-chamber analogue (SB 682) by Miami Republican Sen. Alexis Calatayud would become Florida’s most comprehensive domestic violence initiative, covering prevention, early intervention, criminal accountability and survivor support.

It would require mandatory strangulation and domestic violence training for emergency medical technicians and paramedics, modernize the legal definition of domestic violence, expand the courts’ authority to order GPS monitoring and strengthen body camera requirements during investigations.

The bill also creates a treatment-based diversion pathway for first-time offenders who plead guilty and complete a batterers intervention program, mental-health services and weekly court-monitored progress reporting. Upon successful completion, charges could be dismissed, a measure Tendrich says will reduce recidivism while maintaining accountability.

On the victim-safety side, HB 277 would flag addresses for 12 months after a domestic-violence 911 call to give responders real-time risk awareness. It would also expand access to text-to-911, require pamphlets detailing the medical dangers of strangulation, authorize well-check visits tied to lethality assessments, enhance penalties for repeat offenders and include pets and service animals in injunctions to prevent coercive control and harm.

Calatayud called it “a tremendous honor and privilege” to work with Tendrich on advancing policy changes “that both law enforcement and survivors of domestic abuse or relationship violence believe are meaningful to protect families across our communities.”

“I’m deeply committed to championing these essential reforms,” she added, saying they would make “a life-or-death difference for women and children in Florida.”

Organizations supporting HB 277 say the bill reflects long-needed, practical reform. Palm Beach County firefighters union IAFF Local 2928 said expanded responder training and improved dispatch information “is exactly the kind of frontline-focused reform that saves lives.”

The Florida Police Benevolent Association called HB 277 a “comprehensive set of measures designed to enhance protections” and pledged to help advance it through the Legislature.

The Animal Legal Defense Fund praised provisions protecting pets in domestic violence cases, noting research showing that 89% of women with pets in abusive relationships have had partners threaten or harm their animals — a major barrier that keeps victims from fleeing.

Florida continues to see high levels of domestic violence. The National Coalition Against Domestic Violence estimates that 38% of Florida women and 29% of Florida men experience intimate-partner violence in their lifetimes — among the highest rates in the country.

With costs rising statewide, HB 277 also increases relocation assistance through the Crimes Compensation Trust Fund, which advocates say is essential because the current $1,500 cap no longer covers basic expenses for victims fleeing dangerous situations.

Tendrich said survivors who contributed to the bill, which Placida Republican Rep. Danny Nix is co-sponsoring, “finally feel seen.”

“This bill will save lives,” she said. “I am proud that this bill has bipartisan support, and I am even more proud of the survivors whose bravery drives every line of this legislation.”



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Ash Marwah, Ralph Massullo battle for SD 11 Special Election

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Even Ash Marwah knows the odds do him no favors.

A Senate district that leans heavily Republican plus a Special Election just weeks before Christmas — Marwah acknowledges it adds up to a likely Tuesday victory for Ralph Massullo.

The Senate District 11 Special Election is Tuesday to fill the void created when Blaise Ingoglia became Chief Financial Officer.

It pits Republican Massullo, a dermatologist and Republican former four-term House member from Lecanto, against Democrat Marwah, a civil engineer from The Villages.

Early voter turnout was light, as would be expected in a low-key standalone Special Election: At 10% or under for Hernando and Pasco counties, 19% in Sumter and 15% in Citrus.

Massullo has eyed this Senate seat since 2022 when he originally planned to leave the House after six years for the SD 11 run. His campaign ended prematurely when Gov. Ron DeSantis backed Ingoglia, leaving Massullo with a final two years in office before term limits ended his House career.

When the SD 11 seat opened up with Ingoglia’s CFO appointment, Massullo jumped in and a host of big-name endorsements followed, including from DeSantis, Ingoglia, Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, U.S. Sens. Ashley Moody and Rick Scott, four GOP Congressmen, county Sheriffs in the district, and the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

The Florida LGBTQ+ Democratic Caucus is endorsing Marwah.

Marwah ran for HD 52 in 2024, garnering just 24% of the vote against Republican John Temple

Massullo has raised $249,950 to Marwah’s $12,125. Massullo’s $108,000 in spending includes consulting, events and mail pieces. One of those mail pieces reminded voters there’s an election.

The two opponents had few opportunities for head-to-head debate. The League of Women Voters of Citrus County conducted a SD 11 forum on Zoom in late October, when the two candidates clashed over the state’s direction.

Marwah said DeSantis and Republicans are “playing games” in their attempts to redraw congressional district boundaries.

“No need to go through this expense,” he said. “It will really ruin decades of progress in civil rights. We should honor the rule of law that we agreed on that it’ll be done every 10 years. I’m not sure why the game is being played at this point.”

Massullo said congressional districts should reflect population shifts.

“The people of our state deserve to be adequately represented based on population,” he said. “I personally do not believe we should use race as a means to justify particular areas. I’m one that believes we should be blind to race, blind to creed, blind to sex, in everything that we do, particularly looking at population.”

Senate District 11 covers all of Citrus, Hernando and Sumter counties, plus a portion of northern Pasco County. It is safely Republican — Ingoglia won 69% of the vote there in November, and Donald Trump carried the district by the same margin in 2024.



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Miles Davis tapped to lead School Board organizing workshop at national LGBTQ conference

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Miles Davis is taking his Florida-focused organizing playbook to the national stage.

Davis, Policy Director at PRISM Florida and Director of Advocacy and Communications at SAVE, has been selected to present a workshop at the 2026 Creating Change Conference, the largest annual LGBTQ advocacy and movement-building convention.

It’s a major nod to his rising role in Florida’s LGBTQ policy landscape.

The National LGBTQ Task Force, which organizes the conference, announced that Davis will present his session, “School Board Organizing 101.” His proposal rose to the top of more than 550 submissions competing for roughly 140 slots, a press note said, making this year’s conference one of the most competitive program cycles in the event’s history.

His workshop will be scheduled during the Jan. 21-24 gathering in Washington, D.C.

Davis said his selection caps a strong year for PRISM Florida, where he helped shepherd the organization’s first-ever bill (HB 331) into the Legislature. The measure, sponsored by Tampa Democratic Rep. Dianne Hart, would restore local oversight over reproductive health and HIV/AIDS instruction, undoing changes enacted under a 2023 expansion to Florida’s “Parental Rights in Education” law, dubbed “Don’t Say Gay” by critics.

Davis’ workshop draws directly from that work and aims to train LGBTQ youth, families and advocates in how local boards operate, how public comment can shape decisions and how communities can mobilize around issues like book access, inclusive classrooms and student safety.

“School boards are where the real battles over student safety, book access, and inclusive classrooms are happening,” Davis said. “I’m honored to bring this training to Creating Change and help our community build the skills to show up, speak out, and win — especially as PRISM advances legislation like HB 331 that returns power to our local communities.”

Davis’ profile has grown in recent years, during which he jumped from working on the campaigns and legislative teams of lawmakers like Hart and Miami Gardens Democratic Sen. Shevrin Jones to working in key roles for organizations like America Votes, PRISM and SAVE.

The National LGBTQ Task Force, founded in 1973, is one of the nation’s oldest LGBTQ advocacy organizations. It focuses on advancing civil rights through federal policy work, grassroots engagement and leadership development.

Its Creating Change Conference draws thousands for four days of training and strategy-building yearly, a press note said.



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