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Last Call for 9.29.25 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

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Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

The James Madison Institute’s latest poll of Florida voters drew some quick fire from pollster Tony Fabrizio, who argues its methodology undercuts the headline numbers in the GOP Governor’s Primary.

It boils down to sample composition: JMI asked Republican voters (self-identified, no less) which candidate they would prefer in the GOP Primary; Fabrizio counters that the only Republicans who matter when it comes to primary elections are Republicans who plan to vote in primaries.

It’s a valid critique. Ten Election Day flakes are worth less than one reliable voter.

Still, one result in the JMI poll deserves a second look: nearly one in three respondents said they feel “politically homeless.” That isn’t a metric with firm predictive value. Still, it is a striking reminder that, despite the noise about polarization, the number of voters alienated by both parties is growing.

Florida Republicans have an inarguable advantage in organization, turnout, fundraising and everything else needed to set candidates up for success. Still, Republicans’ growing voter registrations have as much to do with a surge in third-party and no-party registrations following the 2020 Election.

JMI says it “signals a ripe opportunity for candidates to engage disaffected moderates and independents.” But just like the Primary, whether that “ripe opportunity” is real or just another mirage depends on who shows up.

It cuts both ways, too. For Republicans, it means fresh recruiting ground; for Democrats, who sit 10 points back in overall voter registrations, it’s really the only math that still gives them a fighting chance.

Evening Reads

—“Here are the Floridians who paid megabucks to dine with President Donald Trump” via Dan Christensen of the Florida Bulldog

—”Miami suburb’s once-vibrant housing scene is hit by exodus of migrants” via Deborah Acosta of The Wall Street Journal

—”The man behind Trump’s push for an all-powerful presidency” via Coral Davenport of The New York Times

—”Inside the fight against Trump’s Alaskan pipe dream” via Antonia Juhasz of Rolling Stone

—”Rahm Emanuel, weighing presidential bid, navigates a Democratic Party moving left” via John McCormick of The Wall Street Journal

—”Florida leaders celebrate higher ed rankings success while touting low tuition, anti-DEI policies” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics

—”Ron DeSantis thinks Charlie Kirk has greater reach since his death” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

—”Poll: Two in three Floridians today would vote to reduce or eliminate property taxes” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics

—“Central Florida mostly ignored DeSantis push to lower property taxes” via Ryan Gillespie of the Orlando Sentinel

—”The curious conservative war on beer” via Alexander Sammon of Slate

Quote of the Day

“Are we going to do like an O.J. Simpson trial just to (prove) somebody’s here illegally?”

— Gov. Ron DeSantis, claiming he convinced the Trump administration to speed up deportations.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Instead of a drink, give Gov. Ron DeSantis a cocktail scoresheet for bringing up university DOGE report cards during an event celebrating seven state universities earning Top 100 rankings.

We’re still waiting for mixologists to concoct the Polished, Shiny Badge; until then, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds will have to make do with a Rusty Sheriff’s Badge in honor of his bulk endorsement from 15 county sheriffs.

Former (and potentially future) Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn earned an Iconika (Florida citrus-powered, of course) for landing a top award from Tampa Bay Business & Wealth.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Winless Dolphins host winless Jets on Monday Night Football

The Miami Dolphins seek the first win of the season when they host the New York Jets on Monday Night Football (7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Both Miami and the Jets have started the season 0-3. They are, along with the Tennessee Titans, the only winless teams in the AFC. The New Orleans Saints are the only other team without a victory this season in the NFL.

Miami is dealing with a rash of injuries at cornerback. Starter Storm Duck and reserves Jason Marshall and Cam Smith have been ruled out of the game, while third-stringer Ethan Bonner is questionable. Rasul Douglas is expected to start at one cornerback spot with regular starter Jack Jones on the opposite side.

The good news is that the Jets’ passing game has been among the worst in the NFL this season, averaging 145 yards per game. Neither team has moved the ball effectively this season. Miami averages 282 yards of total offense per game, while the Jets average 272 yards.

Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has struggled this season, throwing five touchdown passes and four interceptions. Tagovailoa has completed only five passes that have gone for more than 20 yards this season.

Miami’s defense has also struggled, surrendering more than 30 points in each of the first three games.

If the Dolphins are going to salvage the season, they must beat the Jets tonight. Next week, they travel to Charlotte to face the Carolina Panthers.

___

Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.


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Debra Tendrich turns ‘pain into policy’ with sweeping anti-domestic violence proposal

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Florida could soon rewrite how it responds to domestic violence.

Lake Worth Democratic Rep. Debra Tendrich has filed HB 277, a sweeping proposal aimed at modernizing the state’s domestic violence laws with major reforms to prevention, first responder training, court safeguards, diversion programs and victim safety.

It’s a deeply personal issue to Tendrich, who moved to Florida in 2012 to escape what she has described as a “domestic violence situation,” with only her daughter and a suitcase.

“As a survivor myself, HB 277 is more than legislation; it is my way of turning pain into policy,” she said in a statement, adding that months of roundtables with survivors and first responders “shaped this bill from start to finish.”

Tendrich said that, if passed, HB 277 or its upper-chamber analogue (SB 682) by Miami Republican Sen. Alexis Calatayud would become Florida’s most comprehensive domestic violence initiative, covering prevention, early intervention, criminal accountability and survivor support.

It would require mandatory strangulation and domestic violence training for emergency medical technicians and paramedics, modernize the legal definition of domestic violence, expand the courts’ authority to order GPS monitoring and strengthen body camera requirements during investigations.

The bill also creates a treatment-based diversion pathway for first-time offenders who plead guilty and complete a batterers intervention program, mental-health services and weekly court-monitored progress reporting. Upon successful completion, charges could be dismissed, a measure Tendrich says will reduce recidivism while maintaining accountability.

On the victim-safety side, HB 277 would flag addresses for 12 months after a domestic-violence 911 call to give responders real-time risk awareness. It would also expand access to text-to-911, require pamphlets detailing the medical dangers of strangulation, authorize well-check visits tied to lethality assessments, enhance penalties for repeat offenders and include pets and service animals in injunctions to prevent coercive control and harm.

Calatayud called it “a tremendous honor and privilege” to work with Tendrich on advancing policy changes “that both law enforcement and survivors of domestic abuse or relationship violence believe are meaningful to protect families across our communities.”

“I’m deeply committed to championing these essential reforms,” she added, saying they would make “a life-or-death difference for women and children in Florida.”

Organizations supporting HB 277 say the bill reflects long-needed, practical reform. Palm Beach County firefighters union IAFF Local 2928 said expanded responder training and improved dispatch information “is exactly the kind of frontline-focused reform that saves lives.”

The Florida Police Benevolent Association called HB 277 a “comprehensive set of measures designed to enhance protections” and pledged to help advance it through the Legislature.

The Animal Legal Defense Fund praised provisions protecting pets in domestic violence cases, noting research showing that 89% of women with pets in abusive relationships have had partners threaten or harm their animals — a major barrier that keeps victims from fleeing.

Florida continues to see high levels of domestic violence. The National Coalition Against Domestic Violence estimates that 38% of Florida women and 29% of Florida men experience intimate-partner violence in their lifetimes — among the highest rates in the country.

With costs rising statewide, HB 277 also increases relocation assistance through the Crimes Compensation Trust Fund, which advocates say is essential because the current $1,500 cap no longer covers basic expenses for victims fleeing dangerous situations.

Tendrich said survivors who contributed to the bill, which Placida Republican Rep. Danny Nix is co-sponsoring, “finally feel seen.”

“This bill will save lives,” she said. “I am proud that this bill has bipartisan support, and I am even more proud of the survivors whose bravery drives every line of this legislation.”



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Ash Marwah, Ralph Massullo battle for SD 11 Special Election

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Even Ash Marwah knows the odds do him no favors.

A Senate district that leans heavily Republican plus a Special Election just weeks before Christmas — Marwah acknowledges it adds up to a likely Tuesday victory for Ralph Massullo.

The Senate District 11 Special Election is Tuesday to fill the void created when Blaise Ingoglia became Chief Financial Officer.

It pits Republican Massullo, a dermatologist and Republican former four-term House member from Lecanto, against Democrat Marwah, a civil engineer from The Villages.

Early voter turnout was light, as would be expected in a low-key standalone Special Election: At 10% or under for Hernando and Pasco counties, 19% in Sumter and 15% in Citrus.

Massullo has eyed this Senate seat since 2022 when he originally planned to leave the House after six years for the SD 11 run. His campaign ended prematurely when Gov. Ron DeSantis backed Ingoglia, leaving Massullo with a final two years in office before term limits ended his House career.

When the SD 11 seat opened up with Ingoglia’s CFO appointment, Massullo jumped in and a host of big-name endorsements followed, including from DeSantis, Ingoglia, Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, U.S. Sens. Ashley Moody and Rick Scott, four GOP Congressmen, county Sheriffs in the district, and the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

The Florida LGBTQ+ Democratic Caucus is endorsing Marwah.

Marwah ran for HD 52 in 2024, garnering just 24% of the vote against Republican John Temple

Massullo has raised $249,950 to Marwah’s $12,125. Massullo’s $108,000 in spending includes consulting, events and mail pieces. One of those mail pieces reminded voters there’s an election.

The two opponents had few opportunities for head-to-head debate. The League of Women Voters of Citrus County conducted a SD 11 forum on Zoom in late October, when the two candidates clashed over the state’s direction.

Marwah said DeSantis and Republicans are “playing games” in their attempts to redraw congressional district boundaries.

“No need to go through this expense,” he said. “It will really ruin decades of progress in civil rights. We should honor the rule of law that we agreed on that it’ll be done every 10 years. I’m not sure why the game is being played at this point.”

Massullo said congressional districts should reflect population shifts.

“The people of our state deserve to be adequately represented based on population,” he said. “I personally do not believe we should use race as a means to justify particular areas. I’m one that believes we should be blind to race, blind to creed, blind to sex, in everything that we do, particularly looking at population.”

Senate District 11 covers all of Citrus, Hernando and Sumter counties, plus a portion of northern Pasco County. It is safely Republican — Ingoglia won 69% of the vote there in November, and Donald Trump carried the district by the same margin in 2024.



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Miles Davis tapped to lead School Board organizing workshop at national LGBTQ conference

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Miles Davis is taking his Florida-focused organizing playbook to the national stage.

Davis, Policy Director at PRISM Florida and Director of Advocacy and Communications at SAVE, has been selected to present a workshop at the 2026 Creating Change Conference, the largest annual LGBTQ advocacy and movement-building convention.

It’s a major nod to his rising role in Florida’s LGBTQ policy landscape.

The National LGBTQ Task Force, which organizes the conference, announced that Davis will present his session, “School Board Organizing 101.” His proposal rose to the top of more than 550 submissions competing for roughly 140 slots, a press note said, making this year’s conference one of the most competitive program cycles in the event’s history.

His workshop will be scheduled during the Jan. 21-24 gathering in Washington, D.C.

Davis said his selection caps a strong year for PRISM Florida, where he helped shepherd the organization’s first-ever bill (HB 331) into the Legislature. The measure, sponsored by Tampa Democratic Rep. Dianne Hart, would restore local oversight over reproductive health and HIV/AIDS instruction, undoing changes enacted under a 2023 expansion to Florida’s “Parental Rights in Education” law, dubbed “Don’t Say Gay” by critics.

Davis’ workshop draws directly from that work and aims to train LGBTQ youth, families and advocates in how local boards operate, how public comment can shape decisions and how communities can mobilize around issues like book access, inclusive classrooms and student safety.

“School boards are where the real battles over student safety, book access, and inclusive classrooms are happening,” Davis said. “I’m honored to bring this training to Creating Change and help our community build the skills to show up, speak out, and win — especially as PRISM advances legislation like HB 331 that returns power to our local communities.”

Davis’ profile has grown in recent years, during which he jumped from working on the campaigns and legislative teams of lawmakers like Hart and Miami Gardens Democratic Sen. Shevrin Jones to working in key roles for organizations like America Votes, PRISM and SAVE.

The National LGBTQ Task Force, founded in 1973, is one of the nation’s oldest LGBTQ advocacy organizations. It focuses on advancing civil rights through federal policy work, grassroots engagement and leadership development.

Its Creating Change Conference draws thousands for four days of training and strategy-building yearly, a press note said.



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