Politics
Last Call for 9.28.26 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
— First Shot —
Nine figures raised. Eight points underwater. Down two.
That’s the latest snapshot of Byron Donalds’ campaign for Governor, courtesy of a new Change Research poll showing David Jolly ahead 48% to 46% among likely voters.
Jolly may be up by a bucket, but that doesn’t mean he is truly ahead. The two-point gap falls within the poll’s modeled margin of error of 2.8 points, and Election Day, of course, is not today.
Still, Change wasn’t wishcasting an electorate tilted toward Democrats. Its likely-voter sample was R+11, only a half-point shy of the GOP advantage assumed in a recent St. Pete Polls survey commissioned by Florida Politics. That poll put Donalds ahead by a tenth of a point, so Florida’s old top-of-ticket nail-biter might truly be on a reunion tour.
The tight margins run counter to the state’s marked Republican shift. The GOP now holds a 1.55 million-voter registration advantage.
The tight margin runs counter to the Florida electorate’s marked shift toward the GOP, which now holds a 1.5 million-voter advantage. The gap is only partially attributable to new registrations; purges do much of the heavy lifting.
Favorability numbers aren’t bright for Donalds, either, with only 38% of respondents telling the pollster they had a favorable view of the Southwest Florida Congressman compared to 46% who view him unfavorably.
The bill for that minus-8: $85 million.
President Donald Trump, meanwhile, is seven points underwater with likely Florida voters. That is substantially better than his minus-22.4 national polling average, but weak in a state he carried by double digits just two years ago.
Florida polls have tightened before Republicans ultimately ran away with the election, and a recent Stetson survey still gave Donalds a 12-point advantage among likely voters.
So, is this a Jolly lead? No. But it isn’t sunshine and roses at Donalds HQ, either.
— Evening Reads —
—“Donald Trump launches government chatbot, urging a wary public not to fear AI” via Ian Duncan and Cat Zakrzewski of The Washington Post
—“Is Trump turning into a political pariah?” via Chris Cillizza of So What
—“How MAGA Inc. raised so much money” via Rebecca Crosby and Noel Sims of Popular Information
—“Pharma’s new top lobbyist is former Majority Leader Eric Cantor” via Amanda Chu of POLITICO
—“Inside the biggest feud in artificial intelligence” via Kevin Roose of The Atlantic
—“If Amendment 3 passes, Florida will need city hospice” via Jeff Brandes for Florida Politics
—“Calculator allows individuals to see the fiscal effects in their areas if Amendment 3 passes” via Mitch Perry of the Florida Phoenix
—“Kelly Kirschner would like someone to buy him a competitive campaign” via Peter Schorsch of Florida Politics
—“Florida Chamber report: Child care crunch holding back Indian River County” via Drew Wilson of Florida Politics
—“America’s empty bedrooms are up for grabs” via Rachel Cohen Booth of Vox
— Quote of the Day —
“I would still want to charge the tourists, but just not the Florida residents.”
— Gov. Ron DeSantis, on his wish to end Turnpike tolls for residents.
— Put it on the Tab —
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy-hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Terror-Tinis are on the happy hour special board in the Capitol, where the Governor and Cabinet approved DeSantis’ push to designate CAIR, Antifa, Muslim Brotherhood and IRGC as terrorist organizations.
Send Brick by Bricks aplenty to Legoland, which is offering military members, veterans, and first responders free admission from Oct. 1 through Nov. 30.
CFO Blaise Ingoglia dished out another round of Prison Blues, this time to seven alleged fraudsters accused of running a scheme designed to bilk the state out of millions.
— Breakthrough Insights —
— Tune In —
Panthers open NHL season this evening
The Florida Panthers open the NHL season as they face the Carolina Hurricanes this evening (5 p.m. ET, ESPN).
The Panthers are coming off a disappointing season where they missed the playoffs after consecutive Stanley Cup championships. The team overhauled the roster in the off-season, including adding forward Brady Tkachuk to play alongside brother Matthew.
The team also added goaltender Jacob Markstrom to replace longtime Panther Sergei Bobrovsky, who signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs as a free agent.
The Hurricanes won the Stanley Cup championship last season after finishing with the best record in the Eastern Conference. The Hurricanes made some minor moves but largely kept the team together after the championship. Earlier this month, Carolina signed forward Jordan Staal to a one-year contract extension and signed backup goaltender Pyotr Kochetkov to a two-year extension.
This evening’s game is one of four on the first night’s schedule. The other three all include rivalry games. The Montreal Canadiens play at the Toronto Maple Leafs. The New York Rangers face the Boston Bruins, and the Edmonton Oilers host the Vancouver Canucks.
The Tampa Bay Lightning season opens on Thursday at the Rangers.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
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