Politics
Last Call for 8.17.26 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
— First Shot —
Republicans will head into Election Day with a sizable advantage in ballots already cast for Florida’s Primary, flipping the large Democratic lead recorded four years ago.
The latest Division of Elections figures, compiled at 11:01 a.m. Monday, show 870,850 Republicans have voted either by mail or at an early voting site, compared with 806,561 Democrats.
That gives Republicans an overall advantage of 64,289 ballots before polls open Tuesday.
Democrats retain their familiar advantage in mail-in voting. Democratic voters have returned 501,069 mail ballots, compared with 422,324 returned by Republicans — an edge of 78,745.
Republicans more than erased that advantage during early voting, which is now complete. GOP voters cast 448,526 early ballots, compared with 305,492 Democrats, giving Republicans a 143,034-ballot advantage in person.
Altogether, 1,913,737 Floridians have already voted, including voters registered with minor parties or no party affiliation. Of those, 1,095,566 voted by mail and 818,171 voted early.
The partisan split looks markedly different from the final numbers in the 2022 Primary.
Four years ago, Democrats cast 843,687 vote-by-mail ballots, nearly 200,000 more than the 646,148 returned by Republicans. Republicans led early voting, 314,137 to 251,386, but that was nowhere near enough to erase the Democratic mail advantage.
By the end of the 2022 Primary, Democrats had cast 1,095,073 ballots through those two methods compared with 960,285 Republicans — a Democratic advantage of 134,788.
The difference between that Democratic advantage and Republicans’ current lead amounts to a nearly 199,000-ballot swing toward the GOP.
The raw turnout comparison, however, comes with a sizable caveat.
Florida has changed its vote-by-mail rules since the 2022 Primary, most significantly by requiring voters to renew their standing requests after each regularly scheduled General Election.
The numbers are not entirely frozen. Another 834,542 mail ballots have been provided to voters but not returned, and ballots received by county elections offices before 7 p.m. local time Tuesday may still be counted.
— Evening Reads —
—“60 days after signing Iran deal, Donald Trump stuck in quagmire as peace talks stall” via Cleve R. Wootson Jr. and Rachel Chason of The Washington Post
—“Trump will make South Korea pay for his Iran humiliation” via Tom Nichols of The Atlantic
—“Election officials are preparing for prediction markets to sow chaos in the Midterms” via David Gilbert and Kate Knibbs of WIRED
—“Debbie Wasserman Schultz sparks a debate over what representation means in diverse districts” via Bill Barrow of The Associated Press
—“Millions were spent in CD 19 GOP Primary, but will a late Trump endorsement decide the race?” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics
—“Why Big Tech’s AI spending is $3 trillion higher than it seems” via Peter Rudegeair and Peter Santilli of The Washington Post
—“Why does everyone hate data centers?” via Nate Silver of the Silver Bulletin
—“‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ lenders pitch loans for needs like electricity and rent” via Stacy Cowley of The New York Times
—“Ban on law firms using celebrities’ images, voices in Florida advertising challenged in federal court” via Christine Sexton of the Florida Phoenix
—”Why scientists are using cheap picnic coolers to protect some of the world’s most endangered animals” via Jesse Alpert of Vox
— Quote of the Day —
“When the Primaries are over, I look forward to being able to count on the support of Gov. DeSantis.”
— Likely GOP gubernatorial nominee Byron Donalds, predicting a Ron DeSantis endorsement after the Primary.
— Put it on the Tab —
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Embattled Republican state Rep. Fabián Basabe was served a Sour Tape after a video from a pre-trial hearing showed that the judge in his case did, indeed, disclose ties he had with two lawyers representing the plaintiffs.
Pinellas County voters earned Front Runners after pre-Election Day tallies showed a vote-by-mail rate that tops every other county in Florida.
The name will be released soon, but until then, send a Who Dey! to Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, who is teasing a running mate announcement in a race he’s unlikely to win.
— Breakthrough Insights —
— Tune In —
Marlins open series vs. Phillies
The Miami Marlins continue a road trip with the first game of a series in Philadelphia against the Phillies (6:40 p.m. ET, Marlins.TV).
The Marlins have won three straight series, taking two of three at home against the Los Angeles Angels, Pirates and at the Cincinnati Reds. Tonight, Miami is scheduled to send right-hander Janson Junk to the mound. Junk won his last start, an 8-2 win over the Pirates, pitching six innings and allowing four hits and one earned run.
The Marlins enter tonight’s game three games over .500 and 10.5 games behind the division-leading Atlanta Braves. However, the Marlins are three games out of the National League wild card race with 37 games remaining in the regular season. Miami last made the playoffs in 2023 with an 84-78 record before being eliminated by the Phillies in two games.
The Phillies enter tonight’s game 7.5 games behind the Braves in the National League East, but with the second-best record among National League wild card teams. If the season ended today, the Phillies would be in the playoffs.
The series continues tomorrow and Wednesday before the Marlins return to Miami to open a six-game homestand against the Washington Nationals and Boston Red Sox.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
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