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Last Call for 7.8.25 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

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Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

The Free Speech Coalition dropped a lawsuit challenging Florida’s law requiring pornography publishers to verify the age of visitors.

The move follows a U.S. Supreme Court decision affirming a similar law in Texas. U.S. District Judge Mark Walker approved the plaintiff’s motion to dismiss on Tuesday.

The voluntary dismissal means the state cannot recover legal costs, and the absence of a ruling allows for further litigation to be filed in the future.

The Free Speech Coalition, dedicated to protecting the rights of the adult entertainment industry, has also filed a lawsuit challenging the Texas law. That resulted in the 6-3 Free Speech Coalition v. Paxton ruling.

The Coalition acknowledged that hindered the Florida case.

“However, we are continuing to monitor the governmental efforts to restrict adults’ access to the internet in Florida,” Mike Stabile, a spokesperson for plaintiffs, said in the statement to the Northwest Daily News. “The Paxton decision does not give the government carte blanche to censor content it doesn’t like.”

But legal experts last week said the ruling on the Texas law spelled a difficult path for the Florida lawsuit.

Read more on Florida Politics.

Evening Reads

—”Seven overlooked provisions in Donald Trump and the GOP’s ugly tax bill” via Nikki McCann Ramirez and Tim Dickinson of Rolling Stone

—”Impostor uses AI to impersonate Marco Rubio and contact foreign and U.S. officials” via Matthew Lee of The Associated Press

—”How insularity defined the last stages of Joe Biden’s career” via Tyler Pager of The New York Times

—”The nuclear club might soon double” via Ross Andersen of The Atlantic

—”Elon Musk says he’ll start a new political party. He’s not the first.” via Annabelle Timsit of The Washington Post

—”Miami-Dade Mayor demands access to Everglades detention camp on seized county land” via Douglas Hanks of the Miami Herald

—”Ron DeSantis spending orgy at ‘Alligator Alcatraz’ benefits donors” via Scott Maxwell of the Orlando Sentinel

—”Byron Donalds draws line in sand against ‘mass amnesty’ for undocumented immigrants” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

—”How a flash flood turned Camp Mystic into a disaster zone” via Joshua Chaffin, Scott Calvert, Jim Carlton and Patience Haggin of The Wall Street Journal

—”The truth behind the endless ‘kids can’t read’ discourse” via Constance Grady of Vox

Quote of the Day

“Are people still talking about this guy?”

— President Donald Trump, responding to a question about Jeffrey Epstein.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Florida TaxWatch predicts that prices will continue to rise under President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs. That likely means “boozeflation” will continue unabated as well.

Without Congressional action, Affordable Care Act premium tax credits will sunset at the end of the year … As they say, Absinthe Makes The Heart Grow Fonder.

The Sunshine State is lagging behind the pack in artificial intelligence jobs, and without a course correction, it could be Losers all around for Floridians.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Marlins keep climbing as All-Star break approaches

The Miami Marlins continue a three-game series in Cincinnati against the Reds tonight as they try to climb back toward the .500 mark before the All-Star break (7:10 p.m. ET, FanDuel Sports Net Florida).

Since an eight-game winning streak was snapped on July 2, the Marlins have won three of six games and sit 11 games behind the National League East-leading Philadelphia Phillies. More importantly, the Marlins enter play today 7.5 games out of the final wild-card spot in the National League. It would take a significant effort to close the gap before the All-Star break, but the Marlins have three more games against the Reds, another team fighting for wild-card contention. Then, three games in Baltimore against the Orioles before the break.  Baltimore is also fighting to keep its season significant, trailing the American League wild-card race by 7.5 games.

The Marlins learned this week that outfielder Kyle Stowers would represent the team at the All-Star game. Stowers has hit 16 home runs and driven in 46 runs in the first half of the year. Stowers was traded by the Orioles last July in a deal for left-handed pitcher Trevor Rogers. He didn’t do much last season, hitting just .186 in 50 games for the Marlins. But this season, he has emerged with one of the more surprising starts to the season in the Major Leagues.

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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.


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Ron DeSantis says GOP must go on offense ahead of Midterms to bring back ‘complacent’ voters

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Gov. Ron DeSantis is continuing to warn Republicans that next year’s Midterm contests may not go their way if the party doesn’t change course.

He recommends that Republicans make a strong case for what they will do if they somehow retain control of Congress next year, given that “in an off-year Midterm, the party in power’s voters tend to be more complacent.”

But DeSantis, who himself served nearly three terms in Congress before resigning to focus on his campaign for Governor in 2018, says House Republicans haven’t accomplished much, and they need to be proactive in the time that’s left.

“I just think you’ve got to be bold. I think you’ve got to be strong. And I think one of the frustrations with the Congress is, what have they done since August till now? They really haven’t done anything, right?” DeSantis explained on “Fox & Friends.”

“I’d be like, every day, coming out with something new and make the Democrats go on the record, show the contrast.”

The Governor said the economy and immigration are two issues that would resonate with voters.

On immigration, DeSantis believes his party should remind voters that President Donald Trump stopped the “influx” of illegal border crossers given passage when Joe Biden was in power.

After providing contrast to some of his policy wins through the end of 2023 in Florida, DeSantis suggested that the GOP needs to blame the opposition party regarding continued economic struggles.

“Democrats, they caused a lot of this with the inflation and now they’re acting like … they had nothing to do with it,” he said.

DeSantis’ latest comments come after Tuesday’s narrow GOP victory in deep-red Tennessee, in yet another election where a candidate for Congress underperformed President Donald Trump.

Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn by roughly 9 points in the Nashville area seat. That’s less than half the margin by which Trump bested Kamala Harris in 2024. This is after U.S. Reps. Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis won by smaller margins than expected in Special Elections in Florida earlier this year.

Though partisan maps protect the GOP in many cases, with just a seven-vote advantage over Democrats in Congress there is scant room for error.

Bettors seem to believe the House will flip, with Democratic odds of victory at 78% on Polymarket on Friday morning.



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Ron DeSantis again downplays interest in a second presidential run

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The question won’t go away.

Gov. Ron DeSantis may be out of state, just like he was when he ran for President in 2024, but that doesn’t mean he’s eyeing another run for the White House.

“I’ve got my hands full, man. I’m good,” he told Stuart Varney during an in-studio interview Friday in New York City, responding to a question about his intentions.

DeSantis added that it was “not the first time” he got that question, which persists amid expectations of a crowded field of candidates to succeed President Donald Trump.

“I’m not thinking about anything because I think we have a President now who’s not even been in for a year. We’ve got a lot that we’ve got to accomplish,” the term-limited Governor told Jake Tapper last month when asked about 2028.

It may be for the best that DeSantis isn’t actively running, given some recent polls.

DeSantis, who ran in 2024 before withdrawing after failing to win a single county in the Iowa caucuses, has just 2% support in the latest survey from Emerson College.

Recent polling from the University of New Hampshire says he’ll struggle again in what is historically the first-in-the-nation Primary state. The “Granite State Poll,” his worst showing in any state poll so far, shows the Florida Governor with 3% support overall.

In January 2024, DeSantis had different messaging after leaving the GOP Primary race.

“When I was in Iowa, a lot of these folks that stuck with the President were very supportive of what I’ve done in Florida. They thought I was a good candidate,” DeSantis said. “I even had people say they think that I would even do better as President, but they felt that they owed Trump another shot. And so I think we really made a strong impression.”

But that was then, this is now.



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First place at stake for Jaguars vs. Colts

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How big is Sunday’s game for the Jaguars?

According to The Athletic, the Jaguars have an 83% chance of making the playoffs entering the weekend. That’s a pretty good bet. At 8-4, the Jaguars are currently in the third spot in the AFC.

However, Jacksonville stands a 42% chance of winning the division, slightly better than Sunday’s opponent, the Indianapolis Colts (8-4), who sit at 34% to win the AFC South.

With both games against the Colts still on the schedule and matchups with the struggling New York Jets, a trip to Denver to face the surging Broncos, and the season finale at home against the Tennessee Titans, the Jaguars need only to win the games they should win to make the playoffs.

Leaving the Colts games aside for the moment, if the Jaguars simply beat the Jets and Titans, they would have 10 wins. That is almost certainly enough to earn a postseason spot.

So, in a way, Sunday’s game against the Colts isn’t make-or-break. However, if the Jaguars want to win the division and host a playoff game, at least one win over the Colts is essential. Should the Jaguars win Sunday, they would hold a 1-game advantage over the Colts and, for the time being, hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indianapolis.

By one metric, the Jaguars can increase their playoff odds to 95% with a victory on Sunday. Even with a loss, they are a good bet to make the playoffs as a wild-card team. But the chance to start the postseason with a home game is a powerful advantage, one that division winners enjoy.

Health will be a major factor in Sunday’s game. The Jaguars hope to have wide receiver/kick returner Parker Washington and defensive end Travon Walker back in the lineup. Both missed some or all of last week’s game but practiced in a limited basis this week. Starting left tackle Walker Little and safety Andrew Wingard remained in the concussion protocol this week. Starting right guard Patrik Mekari returned from concussion protocol on Wednesday.

The Colts are also dealing with injuries. Cornerback Sauce Gardner did not practice this week, while quarterback Daniel Jones continues to play with a fracture in his leg.

The key matchup could be strength vs. strength. Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL in rushing with 1,282 yards, while the Jaguars are the league’s top rush defense, allowing opponents only 82.4 yards per contest. No running back has run for more than 90 yards against the Jaguars this season, and only one, Houston’s Woody Marks, has rushed for more than 70 yards in a game. Taylor averages nearly 107 yards per game this season.

The Jaguars last made the playoffs in 2022 in Doug Pederson’s first season as head coach. Liam Coen is trying to replicate the feat.

Interestingly, the game is one of three in the NFL this weekend with first place on the line.

The Baltimore Ravens host the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday. Both teams are 6-6, and the winner will lead the AFC North. The Chicago Bears (9-3) also travel to Green Bay to face the Packers (8-3-1), with the winner taking the top spot in the NFC North.



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