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Last Call for 7.1.25 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

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Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

The opening of a migrant detention center in the Everglades attracted sometimes divided factions of Florida’s Republican leadership.

That starts with President Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis, who hung close with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem during a tour of the “Alligator Alcatraz” facility. The two Florida politicians previously competed for the Republican nomination for President. But on Tuesday, they stressed a personal and political connection with one another.

Additionally, Trump also praised Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier at the event. Uthmeier, appointed to his Cabinet post this year by DeSantis, approached the Department of Homeland Security with the idea of converting the Dade-Collier Training and Transition Airport into a migrant detention center.

“You do a very good job. I hear good things,” Trump told Uthmeier at a roundtable at the facility. “I hear good things about you from Ron, too. No, you really do. He’s even a good-looking guy. That guy’s got a future, huh? Good job, James, I hear you. You’re really, really fantastic.”

Uthmeier managed DeSantis’ presidential campaign. But he heaped praise on Trump as well, suggesting that the President’s desire to reopen the federal Alcatraz prison in California inspired the “Alligator Alcatraz” project.

The event was attended by many political leaders in Florida who supported Trump over DeSantis during the Presidential Primary last year. That included U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, a Naples Republican who endorsed Trump over DeSantis and is now running to succeed DeSantis as Governor.

Read more on Florida Politics.

Evening Reads

—“Independence Day” via Jennifer Bash of Reasonable Arguments

—”They didn’t have to do this” via Jonathan Chait of The Atlantic

—”Senate Republicans pass Donald Trump’s bill to strip health care from millions” via Nikki McCann Ramirez and Ryan Bort of Rolling Stone

—”The Republican tax bill, explained in 500 words” via Andrew Prokop of Vox

—”With Alligator Alcatraz, Florida cements top spot in federal deportation mission” via Katelyn Ferral of the Tampa Bay Times

—”Trump tours ‘Alligator Alcatraz’ as officials provide more details about new facility” via Rafael Olmeda of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and Skyler Swisher of The Orlando Sentinel

—”Trump administration freezes $300M in Florida education funds” via Jeffrey S. Solochek of the Tampa Bay Times

—”July 13, 2024: How Trump’s near miss coincided with Joe Biden’s last stand” via Josh Dawsey, Tyler Pager and Isaac Arnsdorf of The Washington Post

—“The worst housing market in America is now Florida’s Cape Coral” via Deborah Acosta of The Wall Street Journal

—“New laws seek to protect student athletes, restrict corporal punishment” via Jay Waagmeester of the Florida Phoenix

Quote of the Day

“Let me ask myself permission. Permission granted.”

— President Donald Trump, on putting Florida in charge of building the Everglades Agricultural Area Reservoir.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Mix up a round of Old Frienemies for DeSantis, Trump, Byron Donalds and Wilton Simpson, who came together for a tour of the ‘Alligator Alcatraz’ facility.

Send some 2X4s and Shovel Shooters down to the Everglades, because Florida is about to take charge of the construction site.

Florida consumers have been sipping on a Confidence Builder, according to the most recent survey from the UF Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Marlins try to stay hot vs. Twins

The Marlins try for an eighth straight victory as they continue a home series against the Minnesota Twins this evening (6:40 p.m. ET, FanDuel Sports Net Sun).

The Marlins began the winning streak with a 5-3 victory over the Atlanta Braves on June 22. Then, the Marlins swept three from the Giants in San Francisco, followed by three in Arizona against the Diamondbacks. The streak, the longest current winning streak in Major League Baseball, has pushed Miami to within half a game of third-place Atlanta in the National League East.

Despite their recent success, the Marlins remain eight games behind the final wild card spot in the National League. 

The franchise record for the longest regular-season winning streak is nine games, achieved five times, most recently in 2008. The Marlins have also posted two eight-game winning streaks. 

The Marlins are scheduled to send Edward Cabrera to the mound. Cabrera started a win against San Francisco but did not figure in the decision. His last win came on May 31 against the Giants when he pitched 5.2 innings, allowing six hits and no runs in a 1-0 Marlins’ victory.

The Twins have lost seven of the last 10 games to fall to four games back in the American League wild card race. Minnesota is scheduled to send Joe Ryan to the mound tonight. Ryan is tied for fifth in the American League with eight wins this season and has a 2.86 earned run average.

___

Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.


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Ron DeSantis says GOP must go on offense ahead of Midterms to bring back ‘complacent’ voters

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Gov. Ron DeSantis is continuing to warn Republicans that next year’s Midterm contests may not go their way if the party doesn’t change course.

He recommends that Republicans make a strong case for what they will do if they somehow retain control of Congress next year, given that “in an off-year Midterm, the party in power’s voters tend to be more complacent.”

But DeSantis, who himself served nearly three terms in Congress before resigning to focus on his campaign for Governor in 2018, says House Republicans haven’t accomplished much, and they need to be proactive in the time that’s left.

“I just think you’ve got to be bold. I think you’ve got to be strong. And I think one of the frustrations with the Congress is, what have they done since August till now? They really haven’t done anything, right?” DeSantis explained on “Fox & Friends.”

“I’d be like, every day, coming out with something new and make the Democrats go on the record, show the contrast.”

The Governor said the economy and immigration are two issues that would resonate with voters.

On immigration, DeSantis believes his party should remind voters that President Donald Trump stopped the “influx” of illegal border crossers given passage when Joe Biden was in power.

After providing contrast to some of his policy wins through the end of 2023 in Florida, DeSantis suggested that the GOP needs to blame the opposition party regarding continued economic struggles.

“Democrats, they caused a lot of this with the inflation and now they’re acting like … they had nothing to do with it,” he said.

DeSantis’ latest comments come after Tuesday’s narrow GOP victory in deep-red Tennessee, in yet another election where a candidate for Congress underperformed President Donald Trump.

Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn by roughly 9 points in the Nashville area seat. That’s less than half the margin by which Trump bested Kamala Harris in 2024. This is after U.S. Reps. Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis won by smaller margins than expected in Special Elections in Florida earlier this year.

Though partisan maps protect the GOP in many cases, with just a seven-vote advantage over Democrats in Congress there is scant room for error.

Bettors seem to believe the House will flip, with Democratic odds of victory at 78% on Polymarket on Friday morning.



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Ron DeSantis again downplays interest in a second presidential run

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The question won’t go away.

Gov. Ron DeSantis may be out of state, just like he was when he ran for President in 2024, but that doesn’t mean he’s eyeing another run for the White House.

“I’ve got my hands full, man. I’m good,” he told Stuart Varney during an in-studio interview Friday in New York City, responding to a question about his intentions.

DeSantis added that it was “not the first time” he got that question, which persists amid expectations of a crowded field of candidates to succeed President Donald Trump.

“I’m not thinking about anything because I think we have a President now who’s not even been in for a year. We’ve got a lot that we’ve got to accomplish,” the term-limited Governor told Jake Tapper last month when asked about 2028.

It may be for the best that DeSantis isn’t actively running, given some recent polls.

DeSantis, who ran in 2024 before withdrawing after failing to win a single county in the Iowa caucuses, has just 2% support in the latest survey from Emerson College.

Recent polling from the University of New Hampshire says he’ll struggle again in what is historically the first-in-the-nation Primary state. The “Granite State Poll,” his worst showing in any state poll so far, shows the Florida Governor with 3% support overall.

In January 2024, DeSantis had different messaging after leaving the GOP Primary race.

“When I was in Iowa, a lot of these folks that stuck with the President were very supportive of what I’ve done in Florida. They thought I was a good candidate,” DeSantis said. “I even had people say they think that I would even do better as President, but they felt that they owed Trump another shot. And so I think we really made a strong impression.”

But that was then, this is now.



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First place at stake for Jaguars vs. Colts

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How big is Sunday’s game for the Jaguars?

According to The Athletic, the Jaguars have an 83% chance of making the playoffs entering the weekend. That’s a pretty good bet. At 8-4, the Jaguars are currently in the third spot in the AFC.

However, Jacksonville stands a 42% chance of winning the division, slightly better than Sunday’s opponent, the Indianapolis Colts (8-4), who sit at 34% to win the AFC South.

With both games against the Colts still on the schedule and matchups with the struggling New York Jets, a trip to Denver to face the surging Broncos, and the season finale at home against the Tennessee Titans, the Jaguars need only to win the games they should win to make the playoffs.

Leaving the Colts games aside for the moment, if the Jaguars simply beat the Jets and Titans, they would have 10 wins. That is almost certainly enough to earn a postseason spot.

So, in a way, Sunday’s game against the Colts isn’t make-or-break. However, if the Jaguars want to win the division and host a playoff game, at least one win over the Colts is essential. Should the Jaguars win Sunday, they would hold a 1-game advantage over the Colts and, for the time being, hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indianapolis.

By one metric, the Jaguars can increase their playoff odds to 95% with a victory on Sunday. Even with a loss, they are a good bet to make the playoffs as a wild-card team. But the chance to start the postseason with a home game is a powerful advantage, one that division winners enjoy.

Health will be a major factor in Sunday’s game. The Jaguars hope to have wide receiver/kick returner Parker Washington and defensive end Travon Walker back in the lineup. Both missed some or all of last week’s game but practiced in a limited basis this week. Starting left tackle Walker Little and safety Andrew Wingard remained in the concussion protocol this week. Starting right guard Patrik Mekari returned from concussion protocol on Wednesday.

The Colts are also dealing with injuries. Cornerback Sauce Gardner did not practice this week, while quarterback Daniel Jones continues to play with a fracture in his leg.

The key matchup could be strength vs. strength. Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL in rushing with 1,282 yards, while the Jaguars are the league’s top rush defense, allowing opponents only 82.4 yards per contest. No running back has run for more than 90 yards against the Jaguars this season, and only one, Houston’s Woody Marks, has rushed for more than 70 yards in a game. Taylor averages nearly 107 yards per game this season.

The Jaguars last made the playoffs in 2022 in Doug Pederson’s first season as head coach. Liam Coen is trying to replicate the feat.

Interestingly, the game is one of three in the NFL this weekend with first place on the line.

The Baltimore Ravens host the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday. Both teams are 6-6, and the winner will lead the AFC North. The Chicago Bears (9-3) also travel to Green Bay to face the Packers (8-3-1), with the winner taking the top spot in the NFC North.



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