Politics
Last Call for 4.2.26 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
As lawmakers continue working on the state budget, new data from The Pew Charitable Trusts points to trouble on the horizon for Florida.
As of the second quarter of 2025, Florida’s total tax collections were 3.9% below the state’s 15-year benchmark after adjusting for inflation and seasonality, or roughly $672 million short of what a steady pace would have produced. Nationally, total state tax collections were about 2.3% off pace.
The figures suggest that while Florida’s fiscal outlook is settling into a new post-pandemic normal, collections are decelerating, giving budget writers less wiggle room for new tax cuts or spending programs.
Sales tax collections, especially vital in a state that does not levy a personal income tax, are the main driver behind the slowdown. According to Pew, Florida sales tax revenue was 4.6% below expectations in Q2 2025, or fully double the 2.3% national average.
That softness could be a knock-on effect of broader economic malaise — household spending has slowed as inflation continues pummeling consumers years after cutting off the ring; tourism, while still inching upward, is no longer posting the year-over-year gains seen in the post-reopening surge, while international visitation, especially from the U.S.’s northern neighbor, is falling off a cliff.
There is a bright spot in the data, however: corporate income tax collections are running 9.4% above their historical norm, significantly outperforming the national figure of 2.7%. But a bump in business tax collections is hardly a counterweight — nearly two-thirds of state revenue flows through the general sales tax, while corporate income taxes comprise less than 10%.
Taken together, the numbers lend credence to an early-Session warning from House Speaker Daniel Perez: “The future of the state of Florida, although I think it’s prosperous, I don’t think it’s as rainbow and butterfly-ish as people think.”
The broader national picture points in the same direction. Pew found that 40 states were collecting less tax revenue than expected as of Q2 2025, suggesting that the extraordinary gains seen during the pandemic recovery have largely faded.
Evening Reads
—”Donald Trump fires Pam Bondi as Attorney General” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics
—”Part enabler, part buffer: The bind of the Justice Dept.’s No. 2” via Glenn Thrush and Alan Feuer of The New York Times
—“The Manosphere feels betrayed” via Hanna Rosin of The Atlantic
—”Will $4 gas hurt Trump’s approval ratings? Here’s what history shows.” via Ruth Igielnik and Katherine Chui of The New York Times
—”The 27 most eye-popping lines from Trump’s primetime Iran speech” via Chris Cillizza of So What
—“How Trump rewrote the rules of global trade in one year” via Gavin Bade of The Wall Street Journal
—”Using water to combat ICE” via Noel Sims of Popular Information
“Unmasking the paramilitary agents behind Trump’s violent immigration crackdown” via Ali Winston and Maddy Varner of WIRED
—”Florida joins push to tighten voting rules as Senate dithers” via Alexandra Samuels of Bloomberg Government
—“Hector Mujica enters CD 28 race, setting up potentially competitive challenge to Carlos Giménez” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics
—”What happened when they installed ChatGPT on a nuclear supercomputer” via Joshua Keating of Vox
—”‘What a historic day’: UWF sports teams are heading to Division I” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics
“We love Pam, and she will be transitioning to a much-needed and important new job in the private sector, to be announced at a date in the near future.”
— President Donald Trump firing Attorney General Pam Bondi.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Send an Army & Navy — heavy on the Army — to Alan Suskey, who has been named a Board member for Military Community Youth Ministries.
Sydney Gruters topped $100,000 raised in her first 5 hours on the campaign trail in Florida’s 16th Congressional District. That’s enough to snag a bottle of LeNell’s Red Hook Rye … although the FEC might take issue with that expenditure.
It’s Argo time in Northwest Florida now that UWF athletics are making the jump from Division II to the big leagues.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
Panthers on life support
The two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers are in danger of missing the playoffs. With eight games remaining in the regular season, including tonight’s meeting with the Boston Bruins (7 p.m. ET, Scripps Sports), the Panthers could be eliminated from contention by the end of the weekend.
Florida’s “tragic number” is four, meaning that any combination of results that includes Florida dropping the equivalent of two losses, or teams in the wild card chase (including Boston and the Columbus Blue Jackets), will make it mathematically impossible for the Panthers to earn a spot in the postseason.
The top three teams in each division in the conference earn playoff spots, as do a pair of wild-card teams, to form the eight-team conference playoff bracket.
Florida (36-35-3) has battled injuries and inconsistencies this season. In October, they started the season with three consecutive wins, then lost four straight. In December, they linked four straight wins together and seven of eight over a longer stretch. But they took a step back in January with a four-game losing streak. From Jan. 27 to March 5, the Panthers lost nine of 11 games.
With five consecutive road games coming on the schedule after tonight’s game, including a pair in Pittsburgh this weekend, it is only a matter of time until the Panthers’ hopes for a three-peat are dashed.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.