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Last Call for 4.1.25 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

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Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

It’s Election Day in Florida, and the two congressional districts on the ballot are drawing national attention.

The Republican nominees — former CFO Jimmy Patronis in Florida’s 1st and former Sen. Randy Fine in Florida’s 6th — are both expected to win election, but Democrats are confident the results will show the party has a pulse after weak showings in the past several election cycles.

CD 1 is as close to a sure thing as possible for the GOP. The Panhandle-based district has the most lopsided electorate in the state, it’s R+19 in the Cook Partisan Voting Index and, if anything, that undersells it.

Last year, President Donald Trump carried the district with 68% of the vote to Kamala Harris’ 31%. Arguably more relevant to today’s contest, Patronis won re-election there in 2022 with 73% of the vote.

In that election, Patronis was miles ahead in fundraising, but Democrat Gay Valimont flipped the script in the CD 1 special, logging $6.5 million in contributions compared to about $2 million for Patronis.

The CD 6 race, where Fine is facing Democrat Josh Weil, is expected to be far closer. A recent St. Pete Polls survey, commissioned by Florida Politics, put the race at 48%-44%, advantage Fine. That falls within the poll’s 4.9% margin of error and is a far cry from the 66.5% now-National Security Adviser Michael Waltz notched in November.

Just as in CD 1, fundraising has tilted toward Democrats—Weil claims he has raised more than $10 million, or tenfold more than Fine. Mail-in ballot returns are also offering Democrats a glimmer of hope. As of Monday morning, 19,095 mail-in ballots from Democrats had been received by elections officials, compared to 17,562 ballots from Republicans; another 7,519 ballots were received from third—and no-party voters.

Still, that’s not a cushion that can withstand the trend of Republicans running up the score in Election Day voting.

The polls close in CD 6 at 7 p.m. Eastern; voting wraps up at 7 p.m. Central in CD 1. Stay tuned to Florida Politics for full coverage of the results.

3Q

Charlie Bailes, executive vice president of ABC Fine Wine and Spirits, knows something about selling adult beverages. He has closely followed the policy debate around the marketing of hemp-infused drinks being debated in the Legislature now.

What is the chief policy priority for ABC as the Legislature creates a regulatory framework around hemp products?

THC drinks — this is our main point, I would say — must be kept out of reach and unavailable for sale to anyone under 21. That’s how the spirits industry works. Not only age restriction but access restriction. That is what we are looking for with THC bills: to limit access and not just age to purchase.

Does that mean preventing children from even entering a retail store with these drinks, the way minors can’t be allowed in a liquor store?

Yes. Anyone can go to a gas station, a Wawa, you name it. Both proposed bills from the House and Senate do a good job of limiting access. We are absolutely and fully engaged; we are concerned with how it works now. The world we live in, as long as anyone — a restaurant, retailer, a slushee place — if they have a license you can get from the Department of Agriculture, a license to sell hemp products, you can sell it. It is now unregulated. It’s more like the Wild, Wild West. It will continue if these bills don’t address that. We are concerned if nothing ends up being done.

How did you feel when Gov. Ron DeSantis vetoed a bill last year, and is a better product coming out of the Legislature now?

We believe the evolution needed to happen. Yes, we are very pleased with what has been proposed. Our main issue is limiting access. It’s all about public safety, the same with wine, spirits and beer. We try and apply that to THC as well.

Evening Reads

—”What to watch in today’s big elections in Wisconsin and Florida” via Reid J. Epstein and Emily Cochrane of The New York Times

—”Donald Trump-backed House candidates face unexpected competition in Florida” via Patrick Svitek of The Washington Post

—”Gay Valimont alleges voter suppression after precinct is relocated on day of Special Election” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics

—“‘Problematic’: Ron DeSantis says Trump got ‘bad advice’ to endorse Randy Fine” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

—“Michael Waltz and staff used Gmail for government communications, officials say” via John Hudson of The Washington Post

—“ICE admits ‘administrative error’ in deporting Maryland man to El Salvador” via Ben Finley of The Associated Press

—”Top Trump USAID staffer accused of violent outbursts, racist remarks” via Jacqueline Sweet of Rolling Stone

—”Trump says he settled on ‘Liberation Day’ tariff plan but doesn’t reveal it” via Gavin Bade, Brian Schwartz and Vipal Monga of The Wall Street Journal

—”The Democrats’ Michelle Obama problem” via Christian Paz of Vox

—”DeSantis charity is not complying with state laws, Florida House analysis says” via Lawrence Mower and Alexandra Glorioso of the Tampa Bay Times

—”Casey DeSantis defends Hope Florida before Senate committee vote” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics

—”Gov. DeSantis says Interim CFO imminent, with a full-time replacement next month” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

—”The new marriage of unequals” via Stephanie H. Murray of The Atlantic

Quote of the Day

“I think it’s almost physically impossible for a Republican to lose that district. So, I think we’re looking at a Republican victory, but an underperformance.”

— Gov. Ron DeSantis, dissing Fine in an interview with Dana Loesch.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

If you’re planning to commit a “dangerous” crime, first off, don’t. Second, don’t use an AirTag because you’ll drink Pruno for at least 15 years if the bill zipping through the Senate becomes law.

Election Day wouldn’t be the same without last-minute drama like the unannounced polling place swap in CD 1. For now, order a Dirty Trick Martini and grab some popcorn.

Sen. Joe Gruters gets a Full Sail now that his bill requiring School Boards to “adopt and acquire” materials using the Gulf of America name is ready for the Senate floor.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

U.S. Open Cup spotlight falls on South Florida

A pair of Florida teams will meet in the second round of the U.S. Open Cup tonight as Inter Miami II faces Miami FC (7:30 p.m. ET, YouTube).

The U.S. Open Cup is the oldest soccer competition in North America, dating back to 1914. The competition has been marred by controversy over the past two seasons as Major League Soccer limited the number of teams in the competition. Traditionally, lower-level leagues play in the early rounds, with MLS sides joining in the third or fourth rounds. But last year, citing schedule congestion, MLS withdrew its first teams from the 2024 competition before backtracking. The league then partially changed its approach, allowing a handful of teams to participate.

This season, MLS decided to include teams that missed out on the playoffs last year to participate, with playoff teams only sending the developmental squads from the third-tier MLS Next Pro, including Inter Miami.

Miami FC plays in the second-tier USL Championship and advanced to the second round after a 4-1 victory over Naples United on Mar. 18. Francisco Bonfiglio scored twice in the victory.

Inter Miami II topped Miami United of the fourth-division semi-professional UPSL 4-2 on Mar. 19 to advance. Yuval Cohen scored twice in the second half to secure the victory.

The winner of tonight’s match advances to the third round to face either Charlotte Independence of USL League One or Carolina Core FC of MLS Next Pro.

___

Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.


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Jimmy Patronis puts state official on blast for failing to promote My Safe Florida Homes

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U.S. Rep. Jimmy Patronis publicly scolded Florida’s top resiliency official for failing to promote the My Safe Florida Homes program in a guide on how state homeowners can prepare for storms..

During a meeting of Florida’s congressional delegation in Washington, Patronis pressed Chief Resilience Officer Wesley Brooks over the omission.

“I’m going to embarrass you on this. There’s no excuse it’s not in this book,” the Panama City Republican said.

Brooks, who works within Florida’s Department of Environmental Protection, said it was produced for distribution among state agencies and local partners, and includes information on programs administered under Gov. Ron DeSantis.

While DeSantis last year approved $200 million for the program, which provides matching grants to homeowners who make improvements to protect against wind damage during hurricanes, the program is administered by Florida’s Department of Financial Services.

That’s an agency overseen by the state’s Chief Financial Officer, a job Patronis held for nearly a decade before his election to Congress in a Special Election this month.

Patronis noted that the published guide from the state includes several federal programs administered through the state, but doesn’t put the word out on the My Safe Florida Homes program that Patronis championed during his time on the Florida Cabinet.

“There’s laws on the books that force discounts to be passed on to our policyholders,” Patronis said.

He also noted that several former state lawmakers who now serve, including U.S. Reps. Aaron Bean and Randy Fine, championed the effort at the state level, and that they deserve to know that the program will be promoted and properly administered.

Brooks noted that much of the guide in question focuses on flood prevention and response, while My Safe Florida Homes deals chiefly with wind threats.

“Put it on your book,” Patronis said.

Brooks further addressed the issue on social media after the delegation meeting concluded. He included screenshots of times his state office promoted the My Safe Florida Homes program through sharing news articles or public promotions of state home inspections.

“While the Statewide Office of Resilience is statutorily directed to focus on flooding, we also regularly tout the great work happening through the residential windstorm hardening efforts of the My Safe Florida Home Program and share info across the state,” Brooks said.

“The Congressman and his team at FLDFS deserve a ton of credit for resurrecting and operating the program.”


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Senate President Ben Albritton floats new tax cut idea amid Session talks

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For weeks, Senate President Ben Albritton has been asked if he’s going to support Gov. Ron DeSantis’ proposal to get rid of property taxes or House Speaker Daniel Perez’s proposal to cut the state’s 6% sales tax by 0.75 percentage points.

Now he’s offering his own suggestion: eliminating the sales tax on clothing up to a certain amount.

“Step back and look at the average Florida family. What are the must haves? I don’t mean food, which is not taxed in grocery stores,” Albritton said. “Clothing.”

So halfway through Session, he has asked his staff to come up with a plan.

“If you’re a two-income household and you’re raising two kids, that’s a big deal,” he said. “I love the idea of the property tax and the sales tax, but we’re exploring ideas too to try to find that middle. How do we target some of this to those families too?”

While he’s open to some version of the DeSantis and Perez proposals, Albritton is concerned about what will happen if Florida struggles through another recession without the reliable income the state now has.

Once a tax is cut, it’s nearly impossible to restore. Not only that, but about 20% of the sales tax collected by the state comes out of the pockets of tourists, he said.

“The two proposals out of the Governor and the House are serious proposals. We’re just taking a little different look at it. Is there a blend of all of the above that can achieve the type of balance across the landscape in Florida so that it’s targeted more so to those who really need it than not?”

A sales tax exemption would help Florida families for years to come. For years the state has had a short tax holiday on back-to-school items, including clothes. Families would no longer have to wait for those few days of tax freedom.

“You want some really good reading? Read the Florida tax handbook. It’s really interesting and I’ve been working my way through that trying to stimulate ideas,” he said. “Where is there a point for those folks that we can drill down in?”

The tax cut issue is sure to dominate the rest of Session, and negotiations probably won’t get settled until the final days.

That also applies to the budget, where the House and Senate are about $4 billion apart. And at a time when the federal Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is slashing spending and cutting programs and President Donald Trump’s tariffs send a shock wave through the stock market, Albritton wants to take a thoughtful approach to the state’s spending.

Albritton wants a Florida version of DOGE, but he assures Floridians that they won’t see the chaos being created in Washington because Florida is much more financially stable. Florida has already made a practice of continually looking at ways to make government more efficient, he said.

“Years ago, when Jeb Bush was Governor, they began this conversation — long-range planning processes, different fiscal responsibility kind of stuff. Kind of like Florida DOGE 1.0,” he said. “It’s served the state well. We continue to have balanced budgets, our economies have largely been resilient. Those things have worked. My goal is to enhance.”

Instead of Elon Musk’s theatrical chainsaw waving, Albritton said Florida just needs a scalpel.

“That was a heck of a chainsaw, wasn’t it? To use a scalpel takes work,” he said. “There are lots of states in the country that would look at our fiscal responsibility and say, ‘Y’all are doing a great job.’”

He said it’s a matter of continuously improving on what leaders have done before him.

“My hope is that looking out into the future — six years from now, eight years from now, 12 years from now, 16 years from now — that the leaders in Florida continue what Jeb Bush set in motion,” he said. “I hope that 10 years from now somebody comes up with an idea that I never thought about that can help that be better and they do it.”

As a tribute to his predecessors, Albritton’s public lobby has photos displayed of past Senate Presidents, including two that are still Senators: Don Gaetz and Kathleen Passidomo.

He said he’s tapped them for their advice before and since taking over the presidency, and will continue to do so as the end of Session approaches.

“What I’m looking for is wisdom. Share with me anything that you think would help me be a better President, but if you don’t mind, share with me things you’ve seen that maybe you’d do different today,” Albritton said. “Life’s a series of lessons and those previous Presidents, having that conversation with them, all that really does is help me learn a lesson before I have to learn it myself. That’s what wisdom’s about.”


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Byron Donalds says U.S. will ‘continue to go down the line’ with Donald Trump on tariffs

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POTUS’ preferred candidate for Governor is singing from the White House’s protectionist hymn sheet.

There’s no daylight between gubernatorial candidate and U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds and President Donald Trump on the game of brinkmanship the White House is playing on global trade.

“We’re going to continue to go down the line with President Trump here,” the Naples Republican said on the Fox Business Network’s “Varney and Co.” regarding Trump’s tariff regime.

“Everybody knows that China not only has cheated in any trade negotiation that’s ever actually any deal that’s ever occurred, but they also cheat when it comes to actually going through the proper channels on how trade is supposed to be handled. For far too long they’ve taken advantage of sweetheart deals given by previous administrations and other countries in the world. President Trump is saying, simply, we’re not playing that game anymore.”

Donalds, a Naples Republican endorsed by Trump in the 2026 Governor’s race, believes Trump and his team are “doing a great job” in pushing China into a response that creates “a balanced playing field when it comes to trade internationally.

“China has to actually come to the table, not continue to ratchet up tariffs,” Donalds said.

Indeed, tariffs are high on both sides. China imposed an 84% duty on American imports, while the U.S. is charging a 104% surcharge on goods from the Asian power.

Donalds also enthused about the European Union’s willingness to make a deal, saying it didn’t sound like they were drawing a “hard line” but wanted to “come to the table and negotiate.”

Trump has imposed 20% tariffs on EU imports and a 25% surcharge on automobile imports. Many U.S. goods are impracticable for Europe, compounding the problem. Domestic food does not meet global standards, and America’s famously oversized trucks and SUVs are too big for European roads.

POLITICO reports that the EU is looking to phase in countermeasures, even as the bloc considers removing industrial tariffs on American goods.


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