Tucked inside a gray cinder block building that doubles as a hair salon, Derrick Scott and Democrats in the westernmost part of the Florida Panhandle spent the last four months trying to pull off the improbable — flipping a conservative military stronghold that President Donald Trump won by nearly 20 percentage points in November.

When the results came in late Tuesday, Democrat Gay Valimont had fallen short of winning a congressional seat that few thought she had a chance to claim. But for the first time in almost two decades, a Democrat vying for federal office had carried Escambia County, home to Pensacola — a remarkable outcome in itself. The last time voters in the county backed a Democrat for the U.S. House was in 1992.

“I was gobsmacked to say the least,” said Scott, chair of the Escambia County Democratic Party.

The leftward shift around Pensacola and shrinking margins in the rest of the 1st Congressional District and another on Florida’s Atlantic Coast may foreshadow big challenges ahead for Republicans as they look to next year’s midterm elections. It could also illuminate a path forward for embattled Democrats in Florida and elsewhere.

Republicans, from Trump on down, are quick to tap the brakes on Democrats’ enthusiasm. They note that Trump-endorsed candidates Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine both won their respective special election contests by double-digit margins to replace Matt Gaetz, who the president tapped to be attorney general before he withdrew in a shroud of controversy, and Michael Waltz, who became Trump’s national security adviser.

Still, in less than five months, margins were cut in half from what their predecessors got last November in some of the most conservative corners of the country. Democrats leaned into frustrations among veterans and people who depend on federal programs and may be bearing the brunt of the Trump administration’s aggressive government overhaul. The results may hold lessons for how their party can make the case against the president and his party going forward.

Choosing a well-known face who had made inroads in Pensacola in the past election helped Democrats gain ground in a stretch of the Emerald Coast that is home to thousands of military veterans and their families. So did a decisive fundraising advantage, boosted by support from a political action committee led by a U.S. Navy veteran.

“It is a warning sign for Republicans in Florida and across the country, and it should send shivers down the spine of any Republican,” said Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried, who said the results were proof her party had a “pulse” in this state that lost its battleground status over the past few years.

Fried noted there are four military bases in or near Pensacola. And in Florida’s 6th Congressional District, about 60% of residents receive benefits through Veterans Affairs, Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid.

“Those are the issues that are really going to be waking up the sleepy beast,” she said. “It’s not just Democrats, but Americans understand that the Trump and Elon Musk platform and issues are not going to work.”

The Ehr Force PAC is a play on founder Phil Ehr’s last name and military service. Ehr was already known in Pensacola and, in 2020, took 44% of the vote in this county compared to Gaetz’s 55%. He spent months working with local Democratic officials to call, text and door-knock, asking disengaged voters what would motivate them to come back to the polls. The PAC said there was “a significant number of defections” from the GOP.

“It’s a hard, hard road. But now we’ve seen it can be done,” Ehr said.

Heather Lindsay, the Republican mayor of the city of Milton in neighboring Santa Rosa County, voted for Valimont, the Democrat challenging Patronis.

“It’s not about being loyal to one party or the other,” she explained. “It’s about making sure we have a functioning democracy.”

Lindsay has been critical of the cuts impacting the Department of Veteran Affairs and of elected officials who have said little about some of the Trump administration’s new measures.

“I think the Republican Party ought to look closely at what happened in Escambia County and see why they couldn’t take Escambia County for granted,” she said. “To see Escambia County go blue is something to pay attention to.”

Since the GOP took control of the seat in 1994, Republicans had never dropped below 61% of the share of the vote in Florida’s 1st Congressional District. On Tuesday, Patronis received 57% of the vote, compared to his opponent Valimont, who got 42%.

Sally Dutcher, a 77-year-old retired search and rescue worker in Pensacola, was at the watch party for Patronis Tuesday night, where a wave of nervousness rippled through the crowd as supporters watched early returns come in. She said Republicans were “overconfident” and expects Democrats to point to these results to attract more support heading into the 2026 midterms.

“We’ve got to start now. We can’t let up,” Dutcher said. “They’re not going to. They’re already starting on the next election.”

Another area where Democrats gained ground was in Volusia County, made up of residents in Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach and other rural areas further inland. In that county, Fine won by slightly less than 2 percentage points against his Democratic opponent, Josh Weil, after Trump won by 21 percentage points in November.

William Bittorf, of Daytona Beach, said he felt relief when Fine won the race because he feels the Republican president needs more support in Congress to fulfill his agenda.

“I was worried because the Democrats had raised so much money,” Bittorf said.

In the same city, Susan Spencer, a 65-year-old resident, wanted to support a Democrat precisely to stop some of Trump’s actions.

Spencer, an independent voter turned off by the Republican Party after Trump was elected in 2016, stood in line to cast her vote, saying it was a “pivotal time in our government today.”

Spencer suspected most in the line ahead of her would vote for the Republican candidate.

“I just wonder if they also watch the news,” Spencer said.

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Republished with permission of The Associated Press.

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Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

The Legislature budgeted $160 million for the Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA) in 2023 to cover a Medicaid disallowance, but the state agency spent that money in other ways instead.

The federal government says AHCA still must settle the cost, so now agency leaders are asking lawmakers for the same amount again.

It’s a disagreement that is generating tension between the executive branch agency and the Florida House at a time when Gov. Ron DeSantis and House Speaker Daniel Perez already appear to be frequently at loggerheads.

The proposed House health care budget doesn’t currently include money specially earmarked for the $160 million disallowance, though the full House budget does have more than $183 million available to cover disallowances that could be used for this purpose.

But as the issue looms over budget negotiations, it has already garnered the attention of Washington, where Republicans continue to push to reduce spending.

The matter became the topic of a lengthy exchange at a House Health Care Budget Subcommittee meeting on March 12, where Republican members of the House sought an accounting of how the money was spent from Bryan Meyer, Deputy Secretary of Medicaid, and Lynn Smith, Deputy Secretary of Operations.

Read more on Florida Politics.

Evening Reads

—“The influential paper that explains Donald Trump’s radical tariff policy” via Dylan Matthews of Vox

—”‘I should have sold more’: Wall Street reels as Trump’s plan sinks markets” via Gregory Zimmerman, Krystal Hur and Gunjan Banerji of The Wall Street Journal

—”Market reacting poorly to Trump’s launch of huge, nonsensical tariffs that may have been created by a chatbot” via Ben Mathis-Lilley of Slate

—”Trump’s tariffs are designed to backfire” via Rogé Karma of The Atlantic

—“Why Democrats need to apologize to the public” via Chris Cillizza of So What

—”‘Gut punch’: Opposition grows to Attorney General’s decision not to enforce law banning gun sales to buyers under 21” via Matthew Cupelli of Fresh Take Florida

—”Randy Fine says Ron DeSantis, team ‘begged’ him to apply for FAU opening” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

—”Democrats take hope in flipping a county in a ruby red corner of the Florida Panhandle” via The Associated Press

—”Senate passes bill banning geoengineering, weather modification” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics

—”Val Kilmer was born to play Jim Morrison” via Rob Sheffield of Rolling Stone

Quote of the Day

“For some reason, it seems the last week or so the Governor has been a little more emotional and has been upset …”

— House Speaker Daniel Perez, on the Governor’s relationship with the House.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Get your Tin Foil Hats ready because the Florida Senate has approved a bill banning geoengineering and weather modification in the Sunshine State.

Where did your 401(k) go? Have a Drain Pipe while you read up on the fallout from Liberation Day.

Order an Anchors Away for all the boat owners who know how to care for their vessels. For the others … well, there could be consequences.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Gators ready for Final Four

The Florida Gators tip off in the Final Four against Auburn on Saturday evening (6:09 p.m. ET, CBS).

Florida advanced to the program’s first Final Four since 2014 with an 84-79 victory over Texas Tech in the West Regional final. The Gators outscored the Red Raiders 20-6 to finish the game and earn the trip to San Antonio.

The meeting with Auburn will be the second this season. Florida beat the then-top ranked Tigers 90-81 on Feb. 8 in Alabama, handing Auburn its first loss of the season. In the game, Florida led the entire second half. Walter Clayton Jr. led Florida with 19 points as five Gators scored in double figures, including Thomas Haugh, who scored 16 points in 29 minutes off the bench.

Miles Kelly led Auburn with 22 points while Johni Broome added 18 points and 11 rebounds in the losing effort for the Tigers.

Auburn advanced to the Final Four with a 70-64 victory over second-seeded Michigan State in the South Regional final.

The other national semifinal pits Duke against Houston. This year, four number-one seeds have advanced to the Final Four for the first time since 2008.

If Florida were to beat Auburn, they would advance to Monday’s national championship game. If the Gators were to win the national title, it would be the third in program history, matching Villanova for eighth place all-time.

___

Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.

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Measures that would see Florida adopt the “Gulf of America” name in state law and teaching materials are positioned for House votes.

The legislation would change 92 statutory references in Florida law to refer to the body of water along Florida’s west coast as the new name (HB 575) and put “Gulf of America” in K-12 instructional materials (HB 549). The bills, sponsored by Rep. Tyler Sirois and Rep. Juan Porras, respectively, look to align state standards with federal guidelines promulgated by the Donald Trump administration.

Democrats had their say before the inevitable outcomes, with Sirois’ bill passing 78-27 and Porras’ passing 78-29.

Rep. Anna Eskamani said voters didn’t want Sirois’ statutory revision bill and it played into a “hostile political climate.” Rep. Ashley Gantt said both the Sirois bill and the Porras bill about academic materials represented an unfunded mandate on local governments. Rep. Mike Gottlieb spoke to the need to teach “unvarnished history.”

However, Republicans made their own arguments affirming the bills.

Rep. Meg Weinberger framed Sirois’ bill as a blow for the “America First agenda.” And Porras framed his own bill as a sign of a “new era of American exceptionalism.”

The companion bills are coming in for a landing in the Senate as well. SB 608 and SB 1058 both are on the Second Reading Calendar.

Tallahassee Republicans have quickly embraced the new name for the body of water that was called the Gulf of Mexico without controversy until earlier this year.

Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson is backing the President’s preference regarding government documents, pushing for changes on behalf of the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services.

Simpson’s goal is to rename the body of water as the Gulf of America “as quickly as possible … in all department administrative rules, forms, maps, and resources.”

Gov. Ron DeSantis was the first state official to use the new name in an executive order declaring a State of Emergency over a Winter storm last month. That order said the inclement weather was headed to Florida across the “Gulf of America.”

The declaration came the same day Trump made the name change official in his own executive order.

While there’s more controversy outside Tallahassee (The Associated Press and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum haven’t accepted the Gulf of America designation), that’s not germane to the legislative process in the Sunshine State.

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