Politics
Last Call for 3.24.26 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
Polls in three Special Legislative Elections close in an hour, and all indications are that the winners will be apparent moments later.
Across all three contests — SD 14, HD 51 and HD 87 — Republicans entered Election Day with a structural advantage. The highest-profile race, SD 14, has long favored Republican Josie Tomkow, who held a roughly 3,000-vote edge after early voting in a district that already leans red. Democrats have pointed to stronger-than-usual engagement on their side as a potential bright spot, but not enough to fundamentally alter the race’s trajectory.
A similar dynamic is at play in HD 51 — Tomkow’s old seat — where Republican Hilary Holley is positioned to secure a comfortable win over Democrat Edwin Pérez in a northern Polk County district that has consistently broken for the GOP. In addition to her sizable fundraising lead, voter registration numbers inherently favor Republicans.
HD 87, the Palm Beach County seat, appears poised to follow suit. Early voting numbers from the county Supervisor of Elections show Republicans had built a comfortable cushion in early voting — 12,686 ballots cast compared to 10,377 for Democrats, with another 4,908 from third- and no-party voters — putting Republican Jon Maples in a strong position against Democrat Emily Gregory.
Whatever suspense there is isn’t about who wins, but by how much.
Democrats will be watching closely for signs of overperformance that could hint at a more competitive environment in November. Anything short of that likely spells two more years of winter for a state party that’s been struggling to gain traction for years.
___
An as-yet-undeclared contender to succeed U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan just received the ultimate stamp of approval.
President Donald Trump on Tuesday encouraged Sydney Gruters to run for Florida’s 16th Congressional District, offering his “Complete and Total Endorsement” if she enters the contest for the soon-to-be open seat.
Gruters, a Sarasota Republican and Executive Director of the New College Foundation, didn’t formally announce a bid but made clear she’s seriously weighing the move. In a statement, she said she is “deeply honored” by Trump’s support and added she expects to share more on her plans “very soon.”
The development adds more fuel to the speculation that Gruters, who is the wife of RNC Chair Joe Gruters, is gearing up for a campaign in the closely watched race in Southwest Florida. The district is solidly Republican, meaning the GOP Primary is likely to decide the next member.
Gruters would enter the race with both institutional ties and political experience. She previously served as District Director for U.S. Rep. Greg Steube and spent more than a decade working for Buchanan. She also held a role in the Trump administration at the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
___
U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds is set to take the stage as a featured speaker at the Florida Chamber Foundation’s upcoming Learners to Earners Workforce Solution Summit
Donalds, the leading Republican candidate to succeed Gov. Ron DeSantis, has focused on education and workforce policy since his time in the state House and is slated to deliver the event’s lunch keynote at the June 23 gathering at the Grand Hyatt Tampa Bay.
Donalds is already outlining his education platform on the campaign trail. The short version: an emphasis on apprenticeships, individualized learning plans, and more transparency on school performance. Check out the full rundown on Florida Politics.
His appearance comes as business leaders and policymakers continue to grapple with workforce shortages, skills gaps and the long-term alignment between the state’s K-12 and post-secondary education systems and employer needs.
The summit itself is designed as a full-day convening of business, education and workforce stakeholders focused on strengthening Florida’s talent pipeline. Panels throughout the day will tackle everything from higher-ed innovation and work-based learning to childcare access and AI’s role in education.
With Donalds now on the agenda, the summit adds a dose of federal perspective — or, perhaps, a preview of the next four years of state policy.
A full agenda and registration details are available here.
Evening Reads
—”Donald Trump just voted by a method he calls ‘mail-in cheating’” via Dan Merica of The Washington Post
—“Marco Rubio returns to Miami to testify in Venezuela lobbying trial” via Kimberly Leonard of POLITICO
—”When Trump wants something done, he dispatches ICE to do it” via Hamed Aleaziz of The New York Times
—”ICE paid the salaries of this town’s entire police force” via Sammy Sussman of WIRED
—”The ugly history behind Trump’s birthright citizenship case in the Supreme Court” via Ian Millhiser of Vox
—”What the hell is going on in America’s airports?” via Ryan Bort of Rolling Stone
—“Will liberals turn against sports betting?” via Nate Silver of the Silver Bulletin
—”Florida homeowners get stiffed — and gaslit — on property insurance” via Scott Maxwell of the Orlando Sentinel
—”The fruit that made Florida is quickly disappearing” via Tom Hudson of WLRN Public Media
—”In Florida schools, a debate unfolds: What does ‘civics’ mean in 2026?” via Jeffrey S. Solochek of the Tampa Bay Times
—”They’re the most exciting plays in baseball — and they’re going extinct” via Jared Diamond of The Wall Street Journal
“Self-government works only if people understand ‘the rules of the game’ and why those rules exist.”
— FSU Institute for Governance and Civics Director Ryan Owens, on civics education in Florida schools.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
The Citrus County Commission could use a round of Slash And Burns as they mull CFO Blaise Ingoglia’s critique of their supposed overspending.
Natalie Brown gets a Bon Voyage as she exits RSA Consulting to return to the Senate, where she will serve as Senior Legislative Aide to Sen. Danny Burgess.
Order a Flashback for Paul Renner, whose focus on Sharia Law stirs up memories of the early 2010s.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
Seminoles, Gators meet in Jacksonville
Florida State and Florida play their (mostly) annual baseball game at Vystar Ballpark in Jacksonville tonight (6 p.m. ET, SEC Network+).
The Seminoles (18-54) are ranked No. 10 in the nation and are coming off winning two of three against North Carolina State, including a 15-5 victory in seven innings on Sunday. FSU’s offense has been leading the way, hitting .304 as a team with 34 home runs and 177 RBI. Freshman designated hitter Kelvyn Paulino Jr. leads the team with a .404 batting average, while Myles Bailey leads with 12 home runs and 31 runs batted in.
Florida (19-6) dropped out of the poll this week after being swept at Alabama, including a 14-7 loss on Sunday. Sophomore Brendan Lawson leads the Gators with a .380 average with a team-high 10 home runs and 29 runs batted in.
Florida is scheduled to send junior Russell Sandefer to the mound. Sandifer pitched an inning and a third against the Seminoles in the first meeting of the season, but has not pitched more than three innings in any game this year.
Florida State is scheduled to start lefthander Cooper Whited, a Sandalwood High School product, in his hometown. Whited has made four appearances this season in relief. In his last appearance on March 17, he pitched a season-high three and a third innings, striking out six against Bethune-Cookman.
It’s the second of three meetings between the two programs this season. Florida won the first meeting on March 10 in Gainesville, 6-3. In the all-time series on neutral sites, Florida has won 15 of the 28 meetings against the Seminoles.
___
Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.