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Last Call for 12.2.25 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

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Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

The Florida Chamber’s 2026 Legislative Fly-In is set for Jan. 13-14 in Tallahassee, gathering business leaders, policymakers and state officials for two days of briefings as the 2026 Legislative Session gets underway.

The annual event typically serves as an early look at the political and economic issues likely to dominate the coming months, with sessions led by Chamber analysts, legislative leadership and members of the Florida Cabinet.

This year’s program adds a new name: Commerce Secretary J. Alex Kelly.

Kelly’s segment, announced Tuesday, will focus on the state’s strategy to expand the manufacturing sector, strengthen economic development tools, and “unlock the competitive advantages of Florida’s rural communities.”

The Fly-In agenda generally blends political forecasting with policy deep dives.

Last year’s program included updates on tax and budget policy, labor regulations, early learning, aerospace, insurance litigation trends, a briefing on leadership priorities from Senate President Ben Albritton and House Speaker Daniel Perez and a keynote address from Gov. Ron DeSantis.

While a full agenda hasn’t been released, the Chamber said this year’s program will likewise “bring together the leaders who will define Florida’s next chapter of growth and competitiveness.”

Evening Reads

—“Inside Donald Trump’s push to make the White House ballroom as big as possible” via Luke Broadwater of The New York Times

—“Crypto won big in 2024. AI is angling to do the same in 2026” via Henry Burke of Rolling Stone

—“Department of War Crimes” via Rebecca Crosby and Noel Sims of Popular Information

—“DOGE isn’t dead. Here’s what its operatives are doing now” via Makena Kelly and Vittoria Elliott of WIRED

—“Former President of Honduras is freed from prison after Trump pardon” via William K. Rashbaum, Maggie Haberman, Kenneth P. Vogel and Jonah E. Bromwich of The New York Times

—“Why Republicans are sweating Tuesday’s Special Election in Trump country” via Dan Merica of The Washington Post

—“Plaintiffs from last Florida redistricting challenge say lawmakers shouldn’t open ‘Pandora’s box’ again” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics

—“Manatee protection may be eroded under Trump administration’s proposed changes to Endangered Species Act” via Patrick Connolly of the Orlando Sentinel

—“Four property tax bills advance to last House committee despite sustained worry over local shortfalls” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics

—“Fears of cuts to fire departments and emergency services plague Florida property tax proposals” via Liv Caputo of the Florida Phoenix

Quote of the Day

“When the maps don’t reflect our growth, the consequences are real.”

— Voter Nancy Batista, on a proposed mid-decade redraw of Florida’s congressional map.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

It’s unclear whether the House State Affairs Committee should get a pat on the back or a Backfire, but they did greenlight four proposed constitutional amendments to overhaul Florida’s property tax framework.

Raise an L’Alliance to Florida Poly and The Skyway Organization for teaming up to spark new developments in advanced manufacturing, materials science, aerospace and workforce development.

The UFC is one Committee stop closer to celebrating specialty license plates with a round of Great Apricot Smackdowns.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Gators face tough test at Duke

The defending national champion Florida Gators travel to Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, North Carolina, to face fourth-ranked Duke tonight (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). 

Florida, ranked 10th in this week’s Associated Press Top 25 poll, has opened the season with five wins and a pair of losses, most recently, an 84-80 defeat by TCU. Tonight’s game is part of the ACC/SEC Challenge, a two-day event that pits teams from the Atlantic Coast Conference against teams from the Southeastern Conference. Other matchups in the event include North Carolina playing at Kentucky and Florida State hosting Georgia.

The Gators have struggled more than expected this season. With their starting frontcourt back, the backcourt has yet to coalesce fully. In games in which they have played their best, the combination of Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland has led Florida to some impressive victories. 

Lee scored 20 points, grabbed seven rebounds, and dished four assists in the victory over Providence on Friday. Fland was a standout against Florida State, scoring a season-high 18 points in the win over the Seminoles.

However, the duo has been inconsistent, particularly in turnovers. They will have to take care of the ball against a highly-ranked team in a very difficult road environment.

Duke has opened the season with eight straight wins, including over ranked teams Kansas and Arkansas. Standout freshman Cameron Boozer leads the Blue Devils, scoring 22.9 points and grabbing 9.8 rebounds per game.

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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.



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Ron DeSantis says GOP must go on offense ahead of Midterms to bring back ‘complacent’ voters

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Gov. Ron DeSantis is continuing to warn Republicans that next year’s Midterm contests may not go their way if the party doesn’t change course.

He recommends that Republicans make a strong case for what they will do if they somehow retain control of Congress next year, given that “in an off-year Midterm, the party in power’s voters tend to be more complacent.”

But DeSantis, who himself served nearly three terms in Congress before resigning to focus on his campaign for Governor in 2018, says House Republicans haven’t accomplished much, and they need to be proactive in the time that’s left.

“I just think you’ve got to be bold. I think you’ve got to be strong. And I think one of the frustrations with the Congress is, what have they done since August till now? They really haven’t done anything, right?” DeSantis explained on “Fox & Friends.”

“I’d be like, every day, coming out with something new and make the Democrats go on the record, show the contrast.”

The Governor said the economy and immigration are two issues that would resonate with voters.

On immigration, DeSantis believes his party should remind voters that President Donald Trump stopped the “influx” of illegal border crossers given passage when Joe Biden was in power.

After providing contrast to some of his policy wins through the end of 2023 in Florida, DeSantis suggested that the GOP needs to blame the opposition party regarding continued economic struggles.

“Democrats, they caused a lot of this with the inflation and now they’re acting like … they had nothing to do with it,” he said.

DeSantis’ latest comments come after Tuesday’s narrow GOP victory in deep-red Tennessee, in yet another election where a candidate for Congress underperformed President Donald Trump.

Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn by roughly 9 points in the Nashville area seat. That’s less than half the margin by which Trump bested Kamala Harris in 2024. This is after U.S. Reps. Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis won by smaller margins than expected in Special Elections in Florida earlier this year.

Though partisan maps protect the GOP in many cases, with just a seven-vote advantage over Democrats in Congress there is scant room for error.

Bettors seem to believe the House will flip, with Democratic odds of victory at 78% on Polymarket on Friday morning.



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Ron DeSantis again downplays interest in a second presidential run

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The question won’t go away.

Gov. Ron DeSantis may be out of state, just like he was when he ran for President in 2024, but that doesn’t mean he’s eyeing another run for the White House.

“I’ve got my hands full, man. I’m good,” he told Stuart Varney during an in-studio interview Friday in New York City, responding to a question about his intentions.

DeSantis added that it was “not the first time” he got that question, which persists amid expectations of a crowded field of candidates to succeed President Donald Trump.

“I’m not thinking about anything because I think we have a President now who’s not even been in for a year. We’ve got a lot that we’ve got to accomplish,” the term-limited Governor told Jake Tapper last month when asked about 2028.

It may be for the best that DeSantis isn’t actively running, given some recent polls.

DeSantis, who ran in 2024 before withdrawing after failing to win a single county in the Iowa caucuses, has just 2% support in the latest survey from Emerson College.

Recent polling from the University of New Hampshire says he’ll struggle again in what is historically the first-in-the-nation Primary state. The “Granite State Poll,” his worst showing in any state poll so far, shows the Florida Governor with 3% support overall.

In January 2024, DeSantis had different messaging after leaving the GOP Primary race.

“When I was in Iowa, a lot of these folks that stuck with the President were very supportive of what I’ve done in Florida. They thought I was a good candidate,” DeSantis said. “I even had people say they think that I would even do better as President, but they felt that they owed Trump another shot. And so I think we really made a strong impression.”

But that was then, this is now.



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First place at stake for Jaguars vs. Colts

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How big is Sunday’s game for the Jaguars?

According to The Athletic, the Jaguars have an 83% chance of making the playoffs entering the weekend. That’s a pretty good bet. At 8-4, the Jaguars are currently in the third spot in the AFC.

However, Jacksonville stands a 42% chance of winning the division, slightly better than Sunday’s opponent, the Indianapolis Colts (8-4), who sit at 34% to win the AFC South.

With both games against the Colts still on the schedule and matchups with the struggling New York Jets, a trip to Denver to face the surging Broncos, and the season finale at home against the Tennessee Titans, the Jaguars need only to win the games they should win to make the playoffs.

Leaving the Colts games aside for the moment, if the Jaguars simply beat the Jets and Titans, they would have 10 wins. That is almost certainly enough to earn a postseason spot.

So, in a way, Sunday’s game against the Colts isn’t make-or-break. However, if the Jaguars want to win the division and host a playoff game, at least one win over the Colts is essential. Should the Jaguars win Sunday, they would hold a 1-game advantage over the Colts and, for the time being, hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indianapolis.

By one metric, the Jaguars can increase their playoff odds to 95% with a victory on Sunday. Even with a loss, they are a good bet to make the playoffs as a wild-card team. But the chance to start the postseason with a home game is a powerful advantage, one that division winners enjoy.

Health will be a major factor in Sunday’s game. The Jaguars hope to have wide receiver/kick returner Parker Washington and defensive end Travon Walker back in the lineup. Both missed some or all of last week’s game but practiced in a limited basis this week. Starting left tackle Walker Little and safety Andrew Wingard remained in the concussion protocol this week. Starting right guard Patrik Mekari returned from concussion protocol on Wednesday.

The Colts are also dealing with injuries. Cornerback Sauce Gardner did not practice this week, while quarterback Daniel Jones continues to play with a fracture in his leg.

The key matchup could be strength vs. strength. Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL in rushing with 1,282 yards, while the Jaguars are the league’s top rush defense, allowing opponents only 82.4 yards per contest. No running back has run for more than 90 yards against the Jaguars this season, and only one, Houston’s Woody Marks, has rushed for more than 70 yards in a game. Taylor averages nearly 107 yards per game this season.

The Jaguars last made the playoffs in 2022 in Doug Pederson’s first season as head coach. Liam Coen is trying to replicate the feat.

Interestingly, the game is one of three in the NFL this weekend with first place on the line.

The Baltimore Ravens host the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday. Both teams are 6-6, and the winner will lead the AFC North. The Chicago Bears (9-3) also travel to Green Bay to face the Packers (8-3-1), with the winner taking the top spot in the NFC North.



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