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Last Call for 12.1.25 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

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Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

Loranne Ausley will hold the first major fundraiser of her Tallahassee Mayor bid tomorrow, a reception at The Governor’s Inn that effectively serves as her formal campaign kickoff.

The event comes a little over two months after she entered the race to replace current Tallahassee Mayor John Dailey, who is not running for re-election.

Ausley’s return to politics follows a long recovery from a serious triathlon accident last fall that left her hospitalized for weeks. She has said her medical team has cleared her to campaign, and she’s been easing back into public life since filing in September.

The former state Representative and Senator joins a field that already includes Commissioner Jeremy Matlow and civil rights attorney Daryl Parks. The nonpartisan race is particularly important because whoever wins could tip the balance in favor of one of the two competing factions on the current Commission.

When she launched her campaign, Ausley avoided commenting directly on current Commission battles, stating she wanted to focus on “finding the things that we have in common versus focusing on things that we don’t have in common.”

As of the close of the last campaign finance reporting period on Sept. 30, Parks led in overall fundraising with $88,527 on hand, followed by Matlow at $66,948 and Ausley at $63,380.

Ausley’s fundraiser runs from 5-7 p.m. at the Governor’s Inn, 209 South Adams Street.

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A coalition of voting-rights groups will gather at the Capitol for a news conference and day of action against the mid-decade redistricting push ahead of the Florida House Select Committee on Congressional Redistricting’s first meeting.

Organizers of the “We Draw the Lines: No Partisan Maps” event say the message is simple: partisan gerrymandering is prohibited under Florida’s Fair Districts Amendments, and the state shouldn’t test the limits.

“Any attempt by politicians to engage in drawing new voting maps designed to tip the scales of power for partisan gain is unconstitutional and illegal in Florida,” said Genesis Robinson, Executive Director of Equal Ground. “Redistricting decides who represents us in government, so it is critical that the process serves the people, not politicians.”

The effort is timed to coincide with Tuesday’s inaugural Committee hearing, where members are expected to outline how they intend to approach a redraw of Florida’s congressional map.

The state currently has a 20-8 Republican advantage in the Congressional delegation, and the controversial map, which went into effect for the 2022 elections, was upheld by the state Supreme Court in July.

However, Gov. Ron DeSantis has made clear he wants the Legislature to look at the maps again ahead of the 2026 Midterms. President Donald Trump has called for red states to redraw their maps to preserve the slim GOP majority in the U.S. House, spurring an arms race in which both Republican- and Democratic-led states are seeking ways to tilt their maps further toward one party.

The Day of Action begins with an 11 a.m. press event on the House side of the Fourth Floor Rotunda. Speakers will include Robinson, Southern Poverty Law Center Florida Policy Director Jonathan Webber, All Voting is Local Florida State Director Brad Ashwell and ACLU of Florida Senior Strategist Abdelilah Skhir.

After the news conference, attendees plan to visit legislative offices to show lawmakers “that Floridians won’t stand for illegal political manipulation of our representation in Congress.”

Evening Reads

—”For ‘No Tax on Tips,’ the IRS gets intimate” via Andrew Duehren of The New York Times

—”In Miami’s ‘Little Venezuela,’ deportation fears collide with hope for regime change” via Alex Leary and Vera Bergengruen of The Wall Street Journal

—”GOP faces a familiar dilemma: What to do about Obamacare?” via Dan Diamond, Riley Beggin and Jacob Bogage of The Washington Post

—“Companies strategize over Donald Trump-focused approach to lobbying” via Isabel Gottlieb of Bloomberg Law

—”Florida Democratic House Leader calls plan to redraw congressional map ‘illegal’” via Mitch Perry of the Florida Phoenix

—“Private school vouchers in Florida redirecting funding away from public schools” via Kaitlyn McCormack of Fresh Take Florida

—”Educators are challenging new rule requiring college syllabi to be posted 45 days in advance” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics

—”In South Florida, the new third space isn’t a coffee shop. It’s your networking group” via Abigail Hasebroock and Shira Moolten of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel

—”Buy now, pay later? Florida has a problem with credit card delinquency” via Michael Butler of the Miami Herald

—”The people outsourcing their thinking to AI” via Lila Shroff of The Atlantic

Quote of the Day

“When an unelected Board passes a rule to micromanage how professors teach a class, they not only demonstrate how little they understand the teaching profession, they demonstrate how little they respect it.”

— FEA President Andrew Spar, on a new state rule requiring college professors to submit a final syllabus 45 days before class starts.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Governor candidate and former House Speaker Paul Renner has a drink recommendation for embattled U.S. Reps. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick and Cory Mills: Get Out.

Lt. Gov. Jay Collins is sipping on a Windfall as political committees continue dumping millions into ad buys supporting his as-yet-unannounced Governor campaign.

Sen. Danny Burgess gets a Good Son for refiling legislation that would enable more grandparents to petition for visitation of their grandchildren after a tragic family event.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Magic try to stay hot against Bulls

The Orlando Magic host the Chicago Bulls in a game that both teams need to stay in playoff contention nearing the quarterpost of the season (7:30 p.m. ET, Peacock).

Orlando has won eight of the last 10 games to climb to sixth in the Eastern Conference standings. If the season ended today, the Magic would automatically qualify for the playoffs. Coming off back-to-back wins at Philadelphia and Detroit, the Magic are a game behind the division-leading Miami Heat in the Southeast Division. Remarkably, the team has accomplished the run without star Paolo Banchero, who has missed eight straight games with a groin strain. Banchero is not expected to return for tonight’s game.

Before the injury, Banchero averaged 21.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game. In his stead, Franz Wagner has stepped up, leading Orlando in scoring (22.8 points per game).

Chicago is heading in the opposite direction, losing three straight and seven of the last 10 games. Losses at New Orleans, Charlotte, and Indiana opened the road trip, which continues tonight in Orlando. If the season ended today, the Bulls would be the last team to qualify for the play-in round of the playoffs.

Tonight’s game is the first of three straight at home for the Magic, including a matchup with Miami on Friday in the NBA Cup.

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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.





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Ron DeSantis says GOP must go on offense ahead of Midterms to bring back ‘complacent’ voters

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Gov. Ron DeSantis is continuing to warn Republicans that next year’s Midterm contests may not go their way if the party doesn’t change course.

He recommends that Republicans make a strong case for what they will do if they somehow retain control of Congress next year, given that “in an off-year Midterm, the party in power’s voters tend to be more complacent.”

But DeSantis, who himself served nearly three terms in Congress before resigning to focus on his campaign for Governor in 2018, says House Republicans haven’t accomplished much, and they need to be proactive in the time that’s left.

“I just think you’ve got to be bold. I think you’ve got to be strong. And I think one of the frustrations with the Congress is, what have they done since August till now? They really haven’t done anything, right?” DeSantis explained on “Fox & Friends.”

“I’d be like, every day, coming out with something new and make the Democrats go on the record, show the contrast.”

The Governor said the economy and immigration are two issues that would resonate with voters.

On immigration, DeSantis believes his party should remind voters that President Donald Trump stopped the “influx” of illegal border crossers given passage when Joe Biden was in power.

After providing contrast to some of his policy wins through the end of 2023 in Florida, DeSantis suggested that the GOP needs to blame the opposition party regarding continued economic struggles.

“Democrats, they caused a lot of this with the inflation and now they’re acting like … they had nothing to do with it,” he said.

DeSantis’ latest comments come after Tuesday’s narrow GOP victory in deep-red Tennessee, in yet another election where a candidate for Congress underperformed President Donald Trump.

Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn by roughly 9 points in the Nashville area seat. That’s less than half the margin by which Trump bested Kamala Harris in 2024. This is after U.S. Reps. Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis won by smaller margins than expected in Special Elections in Florida earlier this year.

Though partisan maps protect the GOP in many cases, with just a seven-vote advantage over Democrats in Congress there is scant room for error.

Bettors seem to believe the House will flip, with Democratic odds of victory at 78% on Polymarket on Friday morning.



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Ron DeSantis again downplays interest in a second presidential run

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The question won’t go away.

Gov. Ron DeSantis may be out of state, just like he was when he ran for President in 2024, but that doesn’t mean he’s eyeing another run for the White House.

“I’ve got my hands full, man. I’m good,” he told Stuart Varney during an in-studio interview Friday in New York City, responding to a question about his intentions.

DeSantis added that it was “not the first time” he got that question, which persists amid expectations of a crowded field of candidates to succeed President Donald Trump.

“I’m not thinking about anything because I think we have a President now who’s not even been in for a year. We’ve got a lot that we’ve got to accomplish,” the term-limited Governor told Jake Tapper last month when asked about 2028.

It may be for the best that DeSantis isn’t actively running, given some recent polls.

DeSantis, who ran in 2024 before withdrawing after failing to win a single county in the Iowa caucuses, has just 2% support in the latest survey from Emerson College.

Recent polling from the University of New Hampshire says he’ll struggle again in what is historically the first-in-the-nation Primary state. The “Granite State Poll,” his worst showing in any state poll so far, shows the Florida Governor with 3% support overall.

In January 2024, DeSantis had different messaging after leaving the GOP Primary race.

“When I was in Iowa, a lot of these folks that stuck with the President were very supportive of what I’ve done in Florida. They thought I was a good candidate,” DeSantis said. “I even had people say they think that I would even do better as President, but they felt that they owed Trump another shot. And so I think we really made a strong impression.”

But that was then, this is now.



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First place at stake for Jaguars vs. Colts

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How big is Sunday’s game for the Jaguars?

According to The Athletic, the Jaguars have an 83% chance of making the playoffs entering the weekend. That’s a pretty good bet. At 8-4, the Jaguars are currently in the third spot in the AFC.

However, Jacksonville stands a 42% chance of winning the division, slightly better than Sunday’s opponent, the Indianapolis Colts (8-4), who sit at 34% to win the AFC South.

With both games against the Colts still on the schedule and matchups with the struggling New York Jets, a trip to Denver to face the surging Broncos, and the season finale at home against the Tennessee Titans, the Jaguars need only to win the games they should win to make the playoffs.

Leaving the Colts games aside for the moment, if the Jaguars simply beat the Jets and Titans, they would have 10 wins. That is almost certainly enough to earn a postseason spot.

So, in a way, Sunday’s game against the Colts isn’t make-or-break. However, if the Jaguars want to win the division and host a playoff game, at least one win over the Colts is essential. Should the Jaguars win Sunday, they would hold a 1-game advantage over the Colts and, for the time being, hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indianapolis.

By one metric, the Jaguars can increase their playoff odds to 95% with a victory on Sunday. Even with a loss, they are a good bet to make the playoffs as a wild-card team. But the chance to start the postseason with a home game is a powerful advantage, one that division winners enjoy.

Health will be a major factor in Sunday’s game. The Jaguars hope to have wide receiver/kick returner Parker Washington and defensive end Travon Walker back in the lineup. Both missed some or all of last week’s game but practiced in a limited basis this week. Starting left tackle Walker Little and safety Andrew Wingard remained in the concussion protocol this week. Starting right guard Patrik Mekari returned from concussion protocol on Wednesday.

The Colts are also dealing with injuries. Cornerback Sauce Gardner did not practice this week, while quarterback Daniel Jones continues to play with a fracture in his leg.

The key matchup could be strength vs. strength. Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL in rushing with 1,282 yards, while the Jaguars are the league’s top rush defense, allowing opponents only 82.4 yards per contest. No running back has run for more than 90 yards against the Jaguars this season, and only one, Houston’s Woody Marks, has rushed for more than 70 yards in a game. Taylor averages nearly 107 yards per game this season.

The Jaguars last made the playoffs in 2022 in Doug Pederson’s first season as head coach. Liam Coen is trying to replicate the feat.

Interestingly, the game is one of three in the NFL this weekend with first place on the line.

The Baltimore Ravens host the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday. Both teams are 6-6, and the winner will lead the AFC North. The Chicago Bears (9-3) also travel to Green Bay to face the Packers (8-3-1), with the winner taking the top spot in the NFC North.



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