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Last Call for 11.3.25 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

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Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

Jerry Demings has worn the badge, held the gavel, and now he wants the keys to the Governor’s Mansion.

The Orange County Mayor’s entry into the 2026 race sets up a Democratic Primary between a longtime party stalwart with deep local roots and a former Republican who found a second political life speaking to disaffected moderates.

It sounds like 2014 all over again, but there are key differences. David Jolly isn’t a former Governor with a renowned pedigree in retail politics, and Demings’ name ID, while hardly universal, easily outpaces that of a state Senator two years removed from office.

Whether either can gain traction is another matter. Democrats haven’t won statewide since 2018, and the voter registration gap has not only flipped toward Republicans, but it has also ballooned well past a million.

U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, the Naples Republican currently leading the pack, was unfazed when asked last week who he might face next year.

“Whatever the Democrats, whoever they choose to throw at us, so be it. We’ll take care of them,” Donalds vowed.

The Trump-backed Congressman’s campaign on Monday threw a jab at the new guy in the ring, saying Demings is “weak, woke and wrong for Florida.”

A University of North Florida poll backs up the confidence: Donalds leads both Jolly and Demings 45%-34%.

Still, in a state that occasionally teases competitiveness before snapping back to form, Demings’ run at least ensures the conversation doesn’t end before it starts.

Evening Reads

—”The imperial aesthetic at the heart of Donald Trump’s presidency” via Naftali Bendavid of The Washington Post

—”Jack Smith, Trump’s target, shifts from defense to counterattack” via Glenn Thrush of The New York Times

—”How the U.S. economy has defied doomsday predictions on tariffs” via Konrad Putzier of The Wall Street Journal

—”Trump battles tiny toymaker over tariffs in landmark Supreme Court case” via Greg Stohr of Bloomberg

—”The lonely new vices of American life” via Dan Brooks of The Atlantic

—“Future of gerrymandering? Here’s how weird things could look.” via Nate Cohn and Jonah Smith of The New York Times

—”DeSantis awards $30 million in cancer research funds to four pediatric hospitals” via Christine Sexton of Florida Phoenix

—”Bridget and Christian Ziegler sue Sarasota, 2 detectives over ‘egregious violations’ of their rights” via Janelle Irwin Taylor of Florida Politics

—”After the vibe shift, Ford ads got weird” via Constance Grady of Vox

Quote of the Day

“There’s a saying: Justice delayed is justice denied.”

— Gov. Ron DeSantis, on the rising pace of state executions. 

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Send a Gold Rush (and a gold ribbon) to Gov. Ron DeSantis and First Lady Casey DeSantis, who announced a $30 million infusion for pediatric cancer programs at four children’s hospitals across the state.

Americans for Prosperity–Florida is raising a French 86 — or a not-so-French variant — in honor of the Republicans who aced its 2025 Legislative Scorecard

Slide a Bare Knuckle Old Fashioned to Jerry Demings, whose entry into the 2026 Governor’s race will at least make for an interesting Democratic Primary.

Breakthrough Insights

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Heat continue road trip in LA

The Miami Heat look to snap a two-game losing streak as they face the Los Angeles Clippers tonight (10:30 p.m. ET, FanDuel Sports Network – Sun).

Miami (3-3) lost consecutive road games to the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Lakers, the latter in a 130-120 shootout. Lakers’ guard Luca Doncic recorded a triple-double (29 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists) in the game.

Heat forward Jamie Jaquez Jr. came off the bench to score 31 points on 11 of 16 shooting in the game. Despite not starting a game this season, Jaquez is third on the team in scoring, averaging 18.7 points per game. Guard Norman Powell leads at 24.0 points per game, although he missed the last three losses due to a groin injury. Center Bam Adebayo averages 22 points and nine rebounds per game.

Miami started last season 3-3 and never climbed more than three games over .500, finishing the regular season with a 37-45 record, good enough to qualify for the play-in round of the playoffs. After beating Chicago and Atlanta on the road, the Heat advanced to the first round, where they were swept in four straight games by the top seed in the East, the Cleveland Cavaliers.

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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.



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Last Call for 11.10.25 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

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Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

LGBTQ advocates and policymakers are cheering a decision by the Supreme Court not to reconsider legalizing marriage equality.

That came months after the 10th anniversary of Obergefell v. Hodges, the decision that legalized same-sex marriage nationwide. A former Kentucky County Clerk of Court, Kim Davis, who infamously refused to issue certificates after Obergefell, asked the Supreme Court to reconsider the issue. But the court has now formally declined to do so.

“A decade ago, the Supreme Court uplifted humanity by affirming that equal protection guarantees same-sex couples the right to marry on the same terms and conditions as all others,” said Sen. Shevrin Jones, a Miami Gardens Democrat and Florida’s first openly gay Senator.

“Since the Obergefell decision, the only change has been a nationwide demonstration of how marriage equality protects families and children, and strengthens our communities, the economy, and society as a whole. Today, millions of Americans can breathe a sigh of relief, knowing that all families are entitled to equal rights under the law. We must maintain our vigilance when it comes to protecting all Americans’ fundamental rights and liberties.”

Equality Florida, the state’s most prominent LGBTQ advocacy group, expressed relief at the news.

“The U.S. Supreme Court has declined to take up Kim Davis’ petition — meaning it will not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges, the landmark decision that made marriage equality the law of the land ten years ago,” reads a post from Equality Florida. “Once again, we proved that #LoveIsLouder.”

Rep. Michele Rayner, the only LGBTQ woman currently in the Legislature, expressed cautious optimism.

“While I am grateful the Supreme Court has decided not to relitigate a decision that has provided equality to millions across the country. This is not a moment for us to rest on our laurels,” the St. Petersburg Democrat said.

Read more on Florida Politics.

Evening Reads

—“These are the Democrats who broke ranks to vote for the shutdown deal” via Leo Sands and Jennifer Hassan of The Washington Post

—”Democrats fume over deal to end government shutdown” via Katy Stech Ferek and Siobhan Hughes of The Wall Street Journal

—“Donald Trump made a huge blunder on the shutdown. So why did Democrats cave anyway?” via Nate Silver of the Silver Bulletin

—”They’re growing up in the Trump era. Here’s what they want from the next President.” via Anna North of Vox

—”The EPA is in chaos” via Molly Taft of WIRED

—“Has Georgia swung Democratic?” via Dave Trotter of Voting Trend

—”Looking toward 2026, AG James Uthmeier pushes tough on crime approach in Florida” via Gray Rohrer of USA Today Network-Florida

—”Florida Senator seeks to reverse Schools of Hope campus sharing law” via Jeffrey S. Solochek of the Tampa Bay Times

—”Does Florida’s debanking expansion go too far? Trump might think so” via Peter Schorsch of Florida Politics

—”AI sweeps through newsrooms, but is it a journalist or a tool?” via Benjamin Mullin and Katie Robertson of The New York Times

Quote of the Day

“You can drown out the chaos that is the world around you.”

— Two-time cancer survivor Michael Sickler, on running in Saturday’s Wild Florida 50K.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

With gas prices at a 2025 low, there’s never been a better time to hit Rock Bottom.

FLHSMV would prefer you not “Stuff the Charger” with booze, but you can pat yourself on the back for helping with a case of your favorite canned cocktail.

Order Rep. Chase Tramont a Bring the Heat for giving his heated tobacco products legislation another try after it failed last Session.

 

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Panthers conclude road trip in Las Vegas

The Florida Panthers continue a western road trip tonight as they face the Vegas Golden Knights (10 p.m. ET, Scripps).

The two-time defending Stanley Cup champions have not found consistency in the early season. After starting the campaign with three straight wins, the Panthers dropped the next four games. They have not won or lost consecutive games since. Maybe it’s a good sign that Florida dropped a 3-1 decision at the San Jose Sharks on Sunday. 

The Panthers (7-7-1) are seventh out of eight teams in the Atlantic Division and in danger of falling further away from the top teams in the playoff chase. Left winger Brad Marchand leads the Panthers in goals (10) and points (16) while center Anton Lundell leads in assists (seven).

Tonight’s game is the second meeting of the season between the 2023 Stanley Cup Finalists. The Panthers beat Vegas 3-0 in South Florida on Oct. 25 in goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky’s 50th career shutout.

Vegas (7-3-4) is second in the Pacific Division but is coming off back-to-back losses and could be without one of the team’s top players. Center William Karlsson was injured at the end of the first period of Vegas’ 4-3 overtime loss to Anaheim on Saturday night. Karlsson has four goals and three assists this season. Injuries limited him last season.

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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.



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Child porn suspect convicted on 40 counts

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The suspect in a Lehigh Acres child porn case could be sentenced to a combined 600 years behind bars.

Attorney General James Uthmeier has announced that a 38-year-old Lehigh Acres man was convicted on 40 counts of possessing child pornography.

Phuc Minh Tran was found guilty after Uthmeier’s Office of Statewide Prosecution handled the case.

“This predator is facing decades behind bars, which is right where he belongs,” Uthmeier said in a news release. “Thanks to the hard work and dedication of Deputy Assistant Statewide Prosecutor Julie Chaikin and Senior Assistant Statewide Prosecutor Agnieszka Thomas, this monster is off the streets and away from our children.”

Tran was originally arrested Aug. 15, 2024, after Florida Department of Law Enforcement (FDLE) agents executed a search warrant at his residence. They were tipped off when the FDLE cyber squad picked up clues that he was downloading child pornography on his computer in his Southwest Florida home.

The trial of Tran lasted a week before a jury. That panel found Tran guilty on every one of the 40 counts. All were felony charges. They included multiple counts of second-degree possession, control of or intentionally viewing child pornography.

Tran is scheduled to be sentenced on Dec. 22. He could be ordered to the Department of Corrections with a total combined 600 years in prison.



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Judge to decide Wednesday whether Miami’s new lifetime term limits bar Frank Carollo from runoff

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Miami-Dade Circuit Court Judge Peter Lopez heard arguments Monday in a fast-moving lawsuit that could reshape Miami’s District 3 runoff election.

A second hearing is set Wednesday, when Lopez expects to issue a ruling.

At issue is a lawsuit filed by three Miami residents, one of whom hopes to take former Miami Commissioner Frank Carollo’s spot on next month’s runoff ballot, seeking to enforce voter-approved term limits.

The measure, which applies retroactively, caps service at two terms as Mayor or City Commissioner. It passed last week with 79% support.

On the same day voters OK’d the change, Carollo — who served on the City Commission from 2009 to 2013 and from 2013 to 2017 — led a crowded District 3 race with about 38% of the vote, advancing to a Dec. 9 runoff against restaurant manager Rolando Escalona.

But the plaintiffs, including third-place finisher Oscar Alejandro, contend the new limits immediately disqualify Carollo, since he served two full terms already. They’re asking Lopez to boot Carollo from the ballot and replace him with Alejandro.

Notably, one of the plaintiffs’ lawyers, former Rep. Juan-Carlos “J.C.” Planas, successfully defended Escalona from an attempt last month to disqualify him in the race due to questions over his residency.

Carollo’s lawyers, meanwhile, countered that the referendum language didn’t specify whether it applies to candidates on the same ballot. They argued that retroactively excluding their client would violate constitutional protections and disenfranchise voters who already cast ballots for him.

The “appropriate mechanism,” lawyer Robert Fernandez said, would be to challenge the outcome of the runoff through standard post-election procedures.

An attorney for the Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections cautioned that the case could have logistical consequences. Ballots for the city’s 9 runoff, which also includes the mayoral runoff between former Miami-Dade Commissioner Eileen Higgins and ex-City Manager Emilio González, are already being printed.

He said reprogramming and retesting ballots to reflect any changes in the District 3 lineup could delay distribution of mail-in ballots, which are scheduled to go out Nov. 17.

A decision Wednesday won’t likely be the end of the matter, as the losing side could appeal the ruling.

Carollo and Escalona, who took about 17% of the vote in the eight-person contest, are competing to replace term-limited Commissioner Joe Carollo, Frank Carollo’s older brother. Frank Carollo held the seat immediately before him.

Both Carollos and Escalona are registered Republicans. Alejandro, a U.S. Navy veteran, is a registered Democrat.

City races are technically nonpartisan, but party politics are frequently still a factor.



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