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Last Call for 10.9.25 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

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Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

Could Donald Trump soon add “Nobel Peace Prize winner” to his résumé?

Bookmakers think it’s possible. Odds on the President claiming the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize have been cut in half following reports of a U.S.-brokered ceasefire in Gaza.

Trump’s odds have moved from 6-to-1 to just 2-to-1 in recent days, making him the betting favorite heading into Friday morning’s announcement. He’s now narrowly ahead of Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, a volunteer network aiding civilians amid that country’s civil conflict, with odds of 5-to-2.

Russian opposition figure Yulia Navalnaya, widow of the late Alexei Navalny, ranks third at 4-to-1, while Doctors Without Borders (14-to-1) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (16-to-1) round out the top five.

The Nobel Committee typically considers more than 250 nominations each year, and the betting lines are far from scientific. Still, with less than 12 hours until the official announcement in Stockholm — it lands at 5 a.m. Eastern time — Trump sits as the sportsbook favorite to take home one of the world’s most prestigious honors.

Evening Reads

—”How Jared Kushner, a self-described ‘deal guy,’ helped broker a Gaza breakthrough” via Katie Rogers and Tyler Pager of The New York Times

—”The bleak lesson Israel — and the world — might learn from the peace deal” via Joshua Keating of Vox

—”The Trumpian fantasy of WhiteHouse.gov” via Kaitlyn Tiffany of The Atlantic

—”He wrote a book about antifa. Death threats are driving him out of the U.S.” via David Gilbert of WIRED

—“Sam Garrison designated Florida House Speaker for 2026-28” via Livia Caputo of the Florida Phoenix

—”Florida’s top election official rejects call to count all mail ballots by hand” via Anthony Man of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel

—”Dozens of Florida bear hunt permits snagged by non-hunters” via Stephen Hudak of the Orlando Sentinel

—”Make sure to grab some Starbursts for Halloween — Florida’s favorite candy” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics

Quote of the Day

“… political successes bring their own set of challenges. And they are summed up in one word: complacency.”

— House Speaker-designate Sam Garrison, during his designation speech.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

If Florida’s favorite candy is any indication, Pink Starbursts should be the go-to drink at your Halloween party.

Reggie Gaffney and Audrey Gibson have both set their sights on HD 13, but only one of them will be drinking a Comeback.

It’s not frontrunner-level fundraising, but Paul Renner gets a Pot of Gold for pulling together more than $3 million for his Governor campaign before the end of the third quarter.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Can Napier save the Gators’ season?

Few coaches have saved their jobs as dramatically as Billy Napier did at Florida last season. After a 4-5 start and with his team coming off consecutive losses to top-5 ranked teams, Napier’s Gators turned things around, beating LSU and Ole Miss, both ranked in the Top-25, then proceeded to beat Florida State and earn a bowl bid, where they beat Tulane in the Gasparilla Bowl to finish the campaign with an 8-5 record.

Can Napier do it again? Florida lost three straight games, including consecutive losses to top-5 ranked teams, before upsetting ninth-ranked Texas last week. 

On Saturday, Florida visits #5 Texas A&M as they attempt to keep hopes of a turnaround alive (7 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Florida (2-3) still has four games remaining on the schedule after this weekend against ranked teams, but Napier has proven to be remarkably resilient in getting his teams to respond under adverse conditions.

If Florida can pull off another upset, Napier could buy himself more time. With a home game against unranked Mississippi State next week, and then a bye week before the annual Georgia-Florida game in Jacksonville, this week’s meeting with the Aggies becomes a significant fork in the road for Florida’s season. 

Texas A&M (5-0, 2-0 SEC) has not faced as tough a schedule as Florida. The Aggies won their only game against another ranked team when they beat Notre Dame 41-40 on the road.

___

Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.



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Boca Raton police union endorses Fran Nachlas for Mayor

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Boca Raton Deputy Mayor Fran Nachlas’ campaign to remove “Deputy” from her title just got a boost from the city’s police union.

The Fraternal Order of Police, Lodge 35, is endorsing Nachlas due to her “consistent support for public safety, dedication to community partnership, and commitment to responsible leadership.”

Boca Raton will “continue to thrive as a safe, vibrant, and forward-moving community” under Nachlas’ mayoralty, the group added in its statement announcing the support.

“Fran has been a dedicated supporter of law enforcement and a strong advocate for our community,” the organization said in a separate Instagram post.

“Your steadfast commitment to ensuring the safety and well-being of our citizens, along with your keen understanding of the unique challenges faced by our officers, exemplify exceptional leadership and dedication. We have complete confidence in your ability to lead with integrity, compassion, and unwavering commitment to the community.”

Nachlas said in a statement that she is “profoundly honored” by the nod.

“Our officers put their lives on the line every day to keep our community safe, and their trust means the world to me,” she said. “As Mayor, I will continue to prioritize public safety, strengthen community partnerships, and ensure our police have the resources and support they need.”

Nachlas was named Boca’s Deputy Mayor in March. She is a past Chair of the Boca Raton Community Redevelopment Agency and member of the Boca Raton Community Advisory Council. She now serves on the Palm Beach County Transportation Planning Agency Governing Board, Florida League of Cities Development, Code Compliance and Redevelopment Committee in addition to her City Council duties.

She is one of three candidates competing to succeed term-limited Mayor Scott Singer, along with Boca Raton Council member Andy Thomson and Mike Liebelson, an energy executive-turned-adviser.

Nachlas and Liebelson are Republicans. Thomson is a Democrat.

Boca Raton’s municipal election is on March 10, 2026.





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Children’s Movement salutes trio of lawmakers who drove early learning wins in 2025

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The Children’s Movement of Florida gathered a full room of advocates and lawmakers to recognize three legislators who helped steer early learning priorities across the finish line during the 2025 Legislative Session.

At a ceremony at the Governors Club in Tallahassee, the organization presented its Early Childhood Champion Award to Republican Sen. Alexis Calatayud, Democratic Rep. Robin Bartleman and Republican Rep. Chase Tramont. The Children’s Movement praised the lawmakers’ work expanding access to the state’s School Readiness program and strengthening support for children with special needs.

The group said the trio played central roles in improving tuition assistance and ensuring families aren’t shut out of early learning opportunities as incomes rise.

“Sen. Calatayud, Rep. Bartleman, and Rep. Tramont demonstrate the bipartisan consensus that investing in early learning is good for our state — benefiting not only children and families, but also the state’s workforce and economy,” said Madeleine K. Thakur, President and CEO of The Children’s Movement.

“Their commitment to increasing access for Florida families is an important contribution to our birth-20 education system, and enables true parent choice for the earliest years before kindergarten.”

Calatayud’s bill on the School Readiness program (SB 1102) contained changes designed to make it easier for providers to receive special needs differential funding. The new law also requires participating programs to complete 10 hours of inclusive-practices training before receiving the additional dollars, a move supporters say helps ensure children with special needs can be served effectively.

The House companion, sponsored by Bartleman and Rep. Dana Trabulsy (HB 877), cleared all committees before lawmakers opted to take up the Senate version.

Calatayud also joined Tramont in spearheading legislation tying income thresholds for the School Readiness program to a percentage of the state median income rather than the federal poverty level, among other changes. Advocates argued the shift was necessary as Florida’s minimum wage continues to climb, pushing some working families out of eligibility even as costs rise.

Their proposals were ultimately rolled into the House’s broader education package (HB 1255).

The Children’s Movement of Florida is a nonprofit, nonpartisan coalition formed in 2010 to make early childhood development a top state priority. The group describes itself as Florida’s “leading voice on early childhood,” working both at the grassroots level — with community engagement and volunteer initiatives — and at the state level, by shaping policy and mobilizing support for early-childhood investment statewide.

The organization said this year’s progress highlights how sustained attention from lawmakers can reshape outcomes for children during their most formative years. The organization pledged to continue working with legislators and state agencies heading into 2026 to protect and expand access to early learning support across Florida.



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Did immigration turn Miami blue?

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Miami’s mayoral race ended Tuesday night with a political shift that would have seemed unlikely just a year ago: The election of a Democrat, Eileen Higgins, to replace term-limited Republican Mayor Francis Suarez. In a city that voted for Donald Trump by less than a point in the 2024 presidential election, the result raises a fundamental question about how Miami’s electorate is evolving.

Many issues shaped this Fall’s campaign, including cost of living, corruption, and fatigue over the area’s political dynasties. But one factor over which the city has no direct control appears to have also played an important role: immigration. Specifically, the aggressive national immigration policies associated with the Trump and DeSantis administrations.

Few American cities are as deeply defined by immigration as Miami. More than 58% of Miami-Dade residents are foreign-born, According to an analysis by the Forum for Together, making the county one of the most immigrant-dense metropolitan areas in the United States. Roughly 72% of Miami’s foreign-born population comes from Latin America, and more than half of all households speak a language other than English at home. Immigrants also fuel Miami’s economy, making up nearly 66% of the labor force, including significant representation in health care, construction, hospitality, and professional services.

This demographic reality helps explain why immigration has long been more than a talking point in Miami — it is personal. And in recent years, the city has transformed into one of the most attractive destinations in the world to live and work. As outgoing Mayor Suarez likes to say, Miami has emerged as a bona fide capital of technology and finance, attracting entrepreneurs, venture capital, global corporations, and top talent drawn to its climate, culture, and international connectivity. With this growth has come a renewed understanding that Miami’s strength lies in its identity as a city built and sustained by people from other places, both inside and outside the United States.

Against this backdrop, the hardening of national immigration rhetoric appears to have pushed many Miami voters, including Republican-leaning Hispanics and No Party Affiliates, toward candidates seen as more protective of immigrants already living and working in the community.

National data underscores this trend. A November 2025 Pew Research Center survey found that majorities of Latinos disapprove of Trump and his policies on immigration and the economy. More strikingly, the survey showed that immigration — often assumed to motivate conservative voting — has in fact become a mobilizing issue for Latinos who oppose mass deportation and family separation. Latinos surveyed overwhelmingly rejected policies targeting long-standing undocumented residents, even when they supported stronger border controls.

A recent Kissimmee-based Kaplan Strategies poll highlighted how this dynamic is playing out locally: Miami voters overwhelmingly support border security, yet a majority also oppose blanket deportations of undocumented immigrants who have become rooted in the community. This dual view — security paired with compassion — reflects a nuanced position that does not align neatly with the national Republican message.

Over the last couple of months, an organization called Freedom and Opportunity Alliance launched a digital, television, and billboard campaign in the weeks leading up to Miami’s election. The group bills itself as supporting strong borders and the deportation of violent criminals, while also opposing the removal of long-established, law-abiding undocumented residents who contribute to local economies. The group’s ads, which ran across major platforms, sought to thread the needle between security and humanity, a balance consistent with voter sentiment.

When viewed together, the data tells a compelling story. Miami’s immigrant-rich population remains sensitive to rhetoric or policies that threaten broad deportation. While voters care deeply about safety and border enforcement, they are equally committed to protecting neighbors, coworkers, and families who form the city’s social and economic bedrock.

In this year’s mayoral race, that tension appears to have broken decisively toward the candidate who most aligned with Miami’s lived reality — not the national rhetoric.



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