Politics
Last Call for 10.8.26 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
— First Shot —
The clock is ticking. The pool of undecided voters is shrinking. But Florida’s race for Governor hasn’t moved.
Republican Byron Donalds drew 44.7% support to Democrat David Jolly’s 44.6% in a new St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics — exactly the same one-tenth-point margin the pollster found three weeks earlier.
Both candidates gained 1.2 percentage points since the mid-September survey, which showed a 43.5%-43.4% race, with Donalds ahead.
The difference came from voters backing neither candidate. Undecided voters fell from 8.9% to 6.9%, while the share choosing someone else slipped from 4.3% to 3.9%. Together, 10.8% of voters now back neither major-party nominee, down from 13.2% in September, with fewer than four weeks remaining before Election Day.
The shifts remain within the surveys’ margins of error. But the new poll shows a race that hasn’t separated, even as both candidates draw support from a narrowing pool of uncommitted voters.
Donalds held 78.7% support among Republican respondents, while Jolly took 80.8% among Democrats. Meanwhile, Jolly led third- and no-party voters, 49.3% to 32.7%. Another 11.7% of those voters were undecided.
The sharpest divide was generational. Jolly led 62% to 16.9% among voters younger than 30 and 54% to 35.2% among those ages 30 to 49. Voters ages 50 to 69 were nearly evenly divided, while Donalds led 63.6% to 29.9% among voters 70 and older.
A separate polling series from Change Research tells a similar story, though Jolly was narrowly ahead. Jolly led 47%-44% in its Sept. 7-9 poll and 48%-46% in a Sept. 25-27 survey, while the undecided share fell from 7% to 5%.
Recent measures from Mason-Dixon and YouGov produced more Republican-friendly snapshots, putting Donalds up 48%-41% and 47%-45%, respectively, but neither has earlier surveys of the settled matchup for comparison.
St. Pete Polls surveyed 836 likely Florida voters Oct. 5-7. The results were weighted by political party, race, age, gender and media market and carry a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.
— Evening Reads —
—“Donald Trump voters are not pumped about voting in the Midterms, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds” via Nathan Layne and Jason Lange of Reuters
—“Ex-Trump officials find new jobs in Venezuela’s lucrative oil industry” via Samantha Schmidt, Anthony Faiola and Karen DeYoung of The Washington Post
—“How a U.S. diplomat suppressed and altered reports critical of Israel” via Natan Odenheimer and Adam Rasgon of The New York Times
—“Club Med, a Disney cruise and an exploding Starship: SpaceX used bystander videos to track falling debris” via Heather Vogell and Agnel Philip of ProPublica
—“We reviewed $1.6 billion of campaign ads. Here are the takeaways.” via Luke Connors, Lydia Sidhom and Laura Beveridge of The Washington Post
—“Watch footage of the Flock search a judge ruled unconstitutional” via Jason Koebler of 404 Media
—“Seminole Tribe takes DraftKings to court over unlicensed sports betting in Florida” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics
—“Miami officials think the Virginia Key marina referendum is a ‘bad deal’. So why is it on the ballot?” via Daniel Rivero of WLRN
—“The man behind a West Bank Telegram channel trying to keep Palestinian drivers safe” via Lama Rabah of WIRED
—“The biggest source of inequality that no one talks about” via Rogé Karma of The Atlantic
— Quote of the Day —
“There’s been one crime committed, and it’s the people that leaked the report illegally. That’s the only crime. No other crime.”
— Gov. Ron DeSantis, on the Hope Florida grand jury report leak.
— Put it on the Tab —
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy-hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Send Steve Vancore a Salty Dog after Mason-Dixon passed his Salt Shaker Test, since all that unused salt might as well go on the rim.
With Ron DeSantis calling for the Hope Florida report’s leaker to be prosecuted, serve him a Last Word and make absolutely sure the glass doesn’t leak.
Buy Manatee County Commissioners a Time Out after their yearlong data-center moratorium, and let the tech companies know their server will be with them sometime in 2027.
— Breakthrough Insights —
— Tune In —
Gators look to bounce back
After their first loss of the season, the Florida Gators look to bounce back against South Carolina on Saturday (12:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network).
The Gators started the season 4-0 before a lackluster 45-17 loss at Missouri. Now, the Gators will face the Gamecocks (2-3, 0-3 in SEC) before meetings with No. 1 Texas and No. 2 Georgia later this month.
Florida’s running game has been outstanding this season. Jadan Baugh is fifth in the nation with 613 rushing yards and tied for first with 11 rushing touchdowns. But Baugh was limited to 13 yards on 12 carries against Mizzou, showing the blueprint to beat Florida. In the first four games of the season, all wins for the Gators, Baugh rushed for at least 136 yards.
South Carolina opened the season with nonconference wins over Kent State and Towson before losing to Mississippi State, Alabama, and Kentucky.
Florida has won 31 of 44 games against South Carolina all time, including the last two. The Gators have won 17 of 19 games in The Swamp all-time.
Saturday’s game has been announced as a sellout, the 22nd straight home sellout for the Gators.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
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