Last Call for 1.8.26 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

Americans for Prosperity Action released another volley of endorsements in state legislative races this cycle, backing two Republicans running for Senate and 11 vying for a seat in the House.

The Senate nods went to Jake Johansson, who is competing to succeed term-limited Sen. Tom Wright in SD 8 and Rep. Lauren Melo, the leading candidate to replace former Senate President Kathleen Passidomo in Southwest Florida-based SD 28.

AFP Action’s House slate stretched from the Panhandle to South Florida. The endorsements: Jon Fay for HD 2, Jacksonville City Council member Terrance Freeman for HD 12, Chad Johnson for HD 22, Erika Booth for HD 35, Emily Duda Buckley for HD 38, Erin Huntley for HD 45, Samantha Scott for HD 52, Ryan Gill for HD 68, Liesa Priddy for HD 82, Anthony Bonna for HD 85 and Eric Stelnicki for HD 100.

“Floridians deserve to be represented by officials who are passionate about making the lives of all Floridians better. These candidates will do just that, championing policies like deregulation, school choice, and housing policy reforms. We look forward to mobilizing our grassroots network to ensure these principled candidates are elected come November,” said Skylar Zander, AFP Action’s senior Florida adviser and State Director of AFP-FL.

The races AFP weighed in on Thursday aren’t expected to be competitive in November. Even-numbered Senate districts weren’t on the 2024 ballot, but Wright won re-election handily in 2022 while Passidomo went unopposed. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump carried 10 of the 11 House districts where AFP is issuing endorsements, six by double-digit margins.

HD 38 was the only exception — former VP Kamala Harris earned 50% of the vote there, compared with Trump’s 48%. On the same ballot, Republican state Rep. David Smith was elected to a fourth term with just over 50% of the vote in a head-to-head with Democratic nominee Marsha Summersill.

HD 45 was also close but went for Trump by about half a point as Democratic Rep. Leonard Spencer ousted the scandal-plagued former Republican Rep. Carolina Amesty, 51%-49%.

Many of the races on AFP’s radar will see action in August, however.

The field in HD 2, currently held by term-limited Rep. Alex Andrade, features a half-dozen Republicans. Fay, a U.S. Naval Academy graduate and former Navy flight officer, has the most momentum thus far, with AFP’s endorsement coming just after his campaign landed support from the Associated Industries of Florida, an influential business lobby.

AIF bundled Fay’s endorsement with one for Priddy, who is in a four-way Primary contest. Her quiver also includes Melo, who is vacating the seat to run for SD 28 — Melo is currently the lone candidate in that race.

Evening Reads

—”Donald Trump’s oil grab could lead to more violence in Venezuela” via Nikki McCann Ramirez of Rolling Stone

—“Cracks in Democrats’ Venezuela response reveal foreign policy muddle” via Liz Goodwin and Yasmeen Abutaleb of The Washington Post

—”Trump relaxes Venezuelan oil embargo, benefiting MAGA billionaire” via Judd Legum of Popular Information

—”Cuba is already on the brink. Nicolás Maduro’s ouster brings it closer to collapse.” via Deborah Acosta and José de Córdoba of The Wall Street Journal

—”Can anyone stop Trump from seizing Greenland?” via Joshua Keating of Vox

—”MAGA is already rewriting the ICE shooting in Minneapolis” via David Gilbert of WIRED

—”How ICE makes raids go viral” via Taylor Lorenz of User Mag

—”First the shooting. Then the lies.” via Adam Serwer of The Atlantic

—“With army of loyalists, Ron DeSantis built a conservative higher-ed empire” via Michael Vasquez of The Tributary

—”Nick DiCeglie bills would address growth, hurricane reconstruction and public safety pressures” via Jesse Mendoza of Florida Politics

Quote of the Day

“I do not normally respond to online rumors, but feel the need to do so at this moment. I will not be a candidate for the currently vacant HC and GM positions with the Miami Dolphins. While you never know what the future may bring, right now, my focus must remain on global events.”

— A very busy Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, clarifying his priorities. 

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Based on his latest campaign pledge, Death in the Afternoon would be the state drink if Paul Renner is elected Governor.

The DNC can huff and puff about redistricting, but all they’re doing is serving DeSantis his favorite drink: Liberal Tears.

Serve an Ante to Rep. Kevin Steele, who just deposited $5 million into his campaign account as he presses forward in challenging sitting CFO Blaise Ingoglia.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Hurricanes one win from national title game

The Miami Hurricanes are one win away from playing for the College Football Playoff national championship as they face Ole Miss tonight in a national semifinal in the Fiesta Bowl (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Miami (12-2) won a postseason game for the first time in nine years when it beat Texas A&M in the first round of the playoff. The Hurricanes then beat second-seed Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl to advance to the national semifinals.

From 1983, when Howard Schnellenberger led the program to a national championship, until 2001, when Miami won a sixth title in program history, the Canes won 11 bowl games. Since 2001, the program had only won four bowl games until this season.

So, is Miami back?

For now, yes. But in the modern era of college football, with the transfer portal and name, image, and likeness making the game a different version of professional football, it is likely much harder for any program to be dominant.

For example, Indiana had not won a bowl game since 1991 and had played in the postseason only six times in that stretch, including a loss in last year’s CFP first round. But in the second season under head coach Curt Cignetti, the Hoosiers went 13-0, then added a win in the Rose Bowl to advance to tomorrow’s other national semifinal. Even basketball schools can become national powers, for at least a few years, in the era of free player movement.

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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.