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KPMG chief on CEOs’ uncertainty on tariffs, the emerging AI ‘hourglass’ org shape and the thing ‘that honestly keeps me up at night’

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KPMG’s CEO Outlook survey offers an annual look behind the curtain at the issues keeping the top business leaders up at night. Every year, hundreds of leaders answer the call from the Big 4 accounting firm to speak frankly and anonymously about key issues that need to solved, and 400 participated in the 2025 edition. CEOs have a message for America: they just aren’t sure of, well, anything.

Business leaders told KPMG—and its recently anointed chair and CEO, Timothy Walsh—that they’re wrestling with uncertainty across several different areas of their work. This is well documented and is to be expected, Walsh told Fortune in an interview. “There’s this general, as you would expect, general conversation around business uncertainty,” Walsh said, adding that he was encouraged at least to see the “alignment” in terms of topics coming up in C-suite conversations.

Peeling back the survey data, Walsh revealed that an unsurprisingly sizable majority (89%) say tariffs will “significantly impact” their business’ performance and operations over the coming three years. And nearly as many, 86%, said their firm will increase prices as needed. They are working hard to get around this, with 85% saying their company will strive to shift its sourcing strategies to minimize the impact as much as possible. The landscape is so uncertain that nearly every CEO says they need to make some kind of change: 79% said they’ve adapted their growth plans.

Walsh talked to Fortune about uncertainty on tariffs and AI, and the importance of trust in a climate of such uncertainty. CEOs are concerned with another advancing technology with terrifying capabilities, Walsh said: cyber and quantum. “That honestly keeps me up at night.”

Cybersecurity’s quantum challenge

Cybersecurity risks remain elevated, especially as quantum computing approaches. As for advances in quantum computing, Walsh said it could one day soon be capable of breaking all encryption, and companies tell him that they’re doing full assessments. It’s a “massive effort” to ensure that they’re not exposed when that quantum computing capability arrives, Walsh warned.

Adding into the mix the capabilities of AI agents and, Walsh said, “in many cases, a nation-state-type investment,” he’s very concerned about malware and deepfake-type technologies escalating in danger. Over the next three years, 82% of CEOs polled said cybercrime and cyber insecurity was a top trend that could hurt their organization. Cyber risk was overall the second-highest cited pressure behind CEOs’ short-term decisions. CEOs are most concerned about fraud detection and prevention (65%) and identity theft (52%), but they also said they have plans in place to mitigate.

All that being said, Walsh said CEOs are “feeling optimistic because they see so many growth opportunities.” The economy has been surprisingly strong despite all the uncertainty, the tech sector is driving a very strong stock market, and he even noted some “large deals and transactions” are coming through when it comes to M&A. “Capital flows are starting to move and [be] a bit more liquid.”

Tariffs and the AI element

Walsh told Fortune that tariffs are obviously the number-one thing on every CEO’s mind. And it’s not only the fact of tariffs but potential changes to tariffs, and “the uncertainty around whether those tariffs will continue to change.” There’s an overwhelming need for businesses to not only consider what will change but to get agile enough to work on their supply chains to be prepared for future, still uncertain, changes to come. To that end, 34% of CEOs said in the survey that supply chain resilience is the top pressure driving short-term decisions, followed by cyber security risks (29%) and global economic uncertainty (25%).

Walsh emphasized that tariffs are introducing a multi-dimensional challenge for CEOs. “The CEOs I speak with are addressing tariff impacts in three areas: cost take-out, supply chain optimization including reshoring, onshoring considerations, and ultimately pricing.” He said KPMG is actively working with clients in all of those areas and yes, AI is part of this transformation, too. The prominence of AI is another layer of uncertainty being added to the picture, but Walsh said it’s helping a lot of CEOs: “AI is not just an efficiency play, CEOs are focused on innovating their business models and introducing new revenue streams and products.”

The AI hourglass to come?

Walsh said AI capabilities are changing quickly, and he acknowledged that companies are starting to restructure in response. The survey found that CEOs “mostly see an hourglass shape” to their organizations in next three years, Walsh said, noting that’s typical with every new technology deployment. He added that “no one knows exactly where [workforce shape] is headed … It’s a challenge to forecast as AI advances rapidly.” In the survey, 35% said they are planning for workforce reductions in some areas over the next two to five years due to AI, and 69% see an hourglass with higher numbers of senior leaders and early-career workers and fewer in the middle (another 16% said a vertical triangle, 13% a triangle and 2% an inverted pyramid).

Managers are facing new responsibilities, managing teams with integrated AI agents, for instance. Walsh said some CEOs describe teams with both people and AI agents on them, “and managers of those teams have to ensure [that] agents complete steps in the workflow process, that agents have good data inputs so that their outputs can be relied upon, and continuously review those outputs.” CEOs surveyed said 86% of them see AI agents becoming embedded team members next year, and half think managers will be primarily responsible for managing AI agents’ performance as opposed to, say, HR or IT.

Walsh agreed with Fortune‘s reporting that “human skills” still matter as AI implementation shows the necessity of reviewing AI outputs. “Human skills are critically important,” Walsh said. Even though KPMG invests in and spends time upskilling its workers on AI and providing them with tools and licenses, he said he continues to remind leaders that “human-to-human relationships are critical … both internally and externally. Trust is more important than ever. Building trust with our teams, clients and ensuring we can trust outputs of technology like AI.” Given the uncertain climate, he added, trust is at a premium. The top change that CEOs see coming is retaining and re-training high-potential talent (75%), followed by redesigning roles to reflect AI collaboration (65%) and hiring AI-capable talent (64%).

Fortune Global Forum returns Oct. 26–27, 2025 in Riyadh. CEOs and global leaders will gather for a dynamic, invitation-only event shaping the future of business. Apply for an invitation.



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Former Amazon exec warns Netflix-WBD deal will make Hollywood ‘a system that circles a single sun’

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A Netflix-Warner Bros. merger would risk a monopsony where a single buyer wields enormous control over the marketplace, the former head of Amazon Studios warned.

Roy Price, who is now chief executive of the studio International Art Machine, wrote in a New York Times op-ed on Saturday that predictions of doom are nothing new in the film industry, pointing to the advent of TV, home video, streaming, and AI.

“But if Netflix acquires Warner Bros., this long-prophesied death may finally arrive, not in the sense that filmmaking will cease but in the sense that Hollywood will become a system that circles a single sun, materially changing its cultural output,” he added. “All orbits—every deal, every creative decision, every creative career—will increasingly revolve around the gravitational mass and imprimatur of one entity.”

To be sure, Netflix has said Warner Bros. operations will continue, and the studio’s films will still be released in theaters. Meanwhile, Warner’s TV channels will be spun off via a separate company, though HBO will be included in Netflix.

But Price said the danger “is not annihilation but centralization,” with the combined company accounting for an even bigger slice of overall content spending.

A reduction in bidders also means less content will be produced, while a separate development culture, set of tastes, and risk tolerances will be sidelined, he predicted.

“A Netflix merger with Warner Bros. would create a monopsony problem: too few buyers with too much bargaining power,” Price explained. “Writers, directors, actors, showrunners, puppeteers, visual effects artists—all are suppliers. The fewer buyers competing to hire them, the lower their compensation and the narrower their opportunities.”

Such reasoning sank Penguin Random House’s attempt to merge with Simon & Schuster that would’ve created a book publisher with too much leverage over authors, he pointed out.

Of course, the remaining players in Hollywood and content creation are giants in their own right as well. A KPMG survey of spending in 2024 put NBC Universal parent Comcast at the top with $37 billion, followed by Alphabet’s YouTube ($32 billion), Disney ($28 billion), Amazon ($20 billion), Netflix ($17 billion) and Paramount ($15 billion). Comcast and Paramount also made bids for Warner Bros.

Theater owners, producers and other creative workers have also voiced opposition to the deal. In addition to the business impact of a Warner Bros. takeover, other opponents raised even weightier concerns.

Oscar winner Jane Fonda sounded the alarm on a “constitutional crisis” and demanded that the Justice Department not use its regulatory power to “extract political concessions that influence content decisions or chill free speech.”

For its part, the Trump administration views the deal with “heavy skepticism,” sources told CNBC. The merger is expected to face exceptional antitrust scrutiny, and Netflix’s $5.8 billion breakup fee is among the biggest ever.

On Wall Street, analysts see a tech angle in the merger, namely the importance of content to train and power the next generation of AI models that will shape the entertainment industry’s future.

The acquisition of Warner Bros. would help Netflix stand out in an AI future, Divyaunsh Divatia, research analyst at Janus Henderson Investors, said in a note on Friday.

“They’re also levering up on premium entertainment at a time when competition on engagement from short form video is expected to intensify especially if AI models democratize video creation at an increasing rate,” he wrote.



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25-year DEA veteran charged with helping Mexican drug cartel launder millions of dollars, secure guns and bombs

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A former high-level agent with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration and an associate have been charged with conspiring to launder millions of dollars and obtain military-grade firearms and explosives for a Mexican drug cartel, according to an indictment unsealed Friday in New York.

Paul Campo, 61, of Oakton, Virginia, who retired from the DEA in 2016 after a 25-year career, and Robert Sensi, 75, of Boca Raton, Florida, were caught in sting involving a law enforcement informant who posed as a member of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, prosecutors said.

The cartel, also know as CJNG, was designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S. in February.

U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton said Campo betrayed his DEA career by helping the cartel, which he said was responsible for “countless deaths through violence and drug trafficking in the United States and Mexico.”

Campo and Sensi appeared Friday afternoon before a magistrate judge in New York, who ordered them detained without bail. Their lawyers entered not guilty pleas on their behalf.

Campo’s lawyer, Mark Gombiner, called the indictment “somewhat sensationalized and somewhat incoherent.” He denied the two men had agreed to explore obtaining weapons for the cartel.

Prosecutors say pair talked of laundering money, obtaining weapons

Over the past year, Campo and Sensi agreed to launder about $12 million in drug proceeds for the cartel and converted about $750,000 in cash to cryptocurrency, thinking it was going to the group when it really went to the U.S. government, the indictment said. They also provided a payment for about 220 kilograms of cocaine they were told would be sold in the U.S. for about $5 million, thinking they would get a cut of the proceeds, prosecutors said.

The two men also said they would look into procuring commercial drones, AR-15 semiautomatic rifles, M4 carbines, grenade launchers and rocket-propelled grenades for the cartel, the indictment said.

Campo boasted about his law enforcement experience during conversations with the informant and offered to be a “strategist” for the cartel, authorities said. He began his career as a DEA agent in New York and rose to become deputy chief of financial operations for the agency, the indictment said.

Evidence in the case includes hours of recordings of the two men talking with the informant, as well as cellphone location data, emails and surveillance images, Assistant U.S. Attorney Varun Gumaste said in court Friday.

Sensi’s attorney, Amanda Kramer, unsuccessfully argued that Sensi should be freed while he awaits trial, saying he wouldn’t flee partly because he has multiple health problems, including injuries from a fall two months ago, early-stage dementia and Type II diabetes.

Sensi was convicted in the late 1980s and early 1990s of mail fraud, defrauding the government and stealing $2.5 million, said the prosecutor, Gumaste. He said evidence shows Sensi also was engaged in a scheme to procure military-grade helicopters for a Middle East country.

Other criminal cases have roiled the DEA

DEA Administrator Terrance Cole said in a statement that while Campo is no longer employed by the DEA, the allegations undermine trust in law enforcement.

The DEA has been roiled in recent years by several embarrassing instances of misconduct in its ranks. The Associated Press has tallied at least 16 agents over the past decade brought up on federal charges ranging from child pornography and drug trafficking to leaking intelligence to defense attorneys and selling firearms to cartel associates, revealing gaping holes in the agency’s supervision.

Starting in 2021, the agency placed new controls on how DEA funds can be used in money laundering stings, and warned agents they can now be fired for a first offense of misconduct if serious enough, a departure from prior administrations.

Campo and Sensi are charged with four conspiracy counts related to narcoterrorism, terrorism, narcotics distribution and money laundering.

____

Collins reported from Hartford, Connecticut. Associated Press writer Joshua Goodman in Miami contributed to this report.



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‘You have an entire culture, an entire community that is also having that same crisis’: Colorado coal town looks anxiously to the future

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The Cooper family knows how to work heavy machinery. The kids could run a hay baler by their early teens, and two of the three ran monster-sized drills at the coal mines along with their dad.

But learning to maneuver the shiny red drill they use to tap into underground heat feels different. It’s a critical part of the new family business, High Altitude Geothermal, which installs geothermal heat pumps that use the Earth’s constant temperature to heat and cool buildings. At stake is not just their livelihood but a century-long family legacy of producing energy in Moffat County.

Like many families here, the Coopers have worked in coal for generations — and in oil before that. That’s ending for Matt Cooper and his son Matthew as one of three coal mines in the area closes in a statewide shift to cleaner energy.

“People have to start looking beyond coal,” said Matt Cooper. “And that can be a multitude of things. Our economy has been so focused on coal and coal-fired power plants. And we need the diversity.”

Many countries and about half of U.S. states are moving away from coal, citing environmental impacts and high costs. Burning coal emits carbon dioxide that traps heat in the atmosphere, warming the planet.

President Donald Trump has boosted coal as part of his agenda to promote fossil fuels. He’s trying to save a declining industry with executive orderslarge sales of coal from public landsregulatory relief and offers of hundreds of millions of dollars to restore coal plants.

That’s created uncertainty in places like Craig. As some families like the Coopers plan for the next stage of their careers, others hold out hope Trump will save their plants, mines and high-paying jobs.

Matt and Matthew Cooper work at the Colowyo Mine near Meeker, though active mining has ended and site cleanup begins in January.

The mine employs about 130 workers and supplies Craig Generating Station, a 1,400-megawatt coal-fired plant. Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association is planning to close Craig’s Unit 1 by year’s end for economic reasons and to meet legal requirements for reducing emissions. The other two units will close in 2028.

Xcel Energy owns coal-fired Hayden Station, about 30 minutes away. It said it doesn’t plan to change retirement dates for Hayden, though it’s extending another coal unit in Pueblo in part due to increased demand for electricity.

The Craig and Hayden plants together employ about 200 people.

Craig residents have always been entrepreneurial and that spirit will get them through this transition, said Kirstie McPherson, board president for the Craig Chamber of Commerce. Still, she said, just about everybody here is connected to coal.

“You have a whole community who has always been told you are an energy town, you’re a coal town,” she said. “When that starts going away, beyond just the individuals that are having the identity crisis, you have an entire culture, an entire community that is also having that same crisis.”

Phasing out coal

Coal has been central to Colorado’s economy since before statehood, but it’s generally the most expensive energy on today’s grid, said Democratic Gov. Jared Polis.

“We are not going to let this administration drag us backwards into an overreliance on expensive fossil fuels,” Polis said in a statement.

Nationwide, coal power was 28% more expensive in 2024 than it was in 2021, costing consumers $6.2 billion more, according to a June analysis from Energy Innovation. The nonpartisan think tank cited significant increases to run aging plants as well as inflation.

Colorado’s six remaining coal-fired power plants are scheduled to close or convert to natural gas, which emits about half the carbon dioxide as coal, by 2031. The state is rapidly adding solar and wind that’s cheaper and cleaner than legacy coal plants. Renewable energy provides more than 40% of Colorado’s power now and will pass 70% by the end of the decade, according to statewide utility plans.

Nationwide, wind and solar growth has remained strong, producing more electricity than coal in 2025, as of the latest data in October, according to energy think tank Ember.

But some states want to increase or at least maintain coal production. That includes top coal state Wyoming, where the Wyoming Energy Authority said Trump is breathing welcome new life into its coal and mining industry.

Planning for the future

The Coopers have gone all-in on geothermal.

“Maybe we’ll never go back to coal,” Matt Cooper said. “We haven’t (gone) back to oil and gas, so we might just be geothermal people for quite some time, maybe generations, and then eventually something else will come along.”

While the Coopers were learning to use their drill in October, Wade Gerber was in downtown Craig distilling grain neutral spirits — used to make gin and vodka — on a day off from the Craig Station power plant. Gerber stepped over his corgis, Ali and Boss, and onto a stepladder to peer into a massive stainless steel pot where he was heating wheat and barley.

Gerber’s spent three decades in coal. When closure plans were announced four years ago, he, his wife Tenniel and their friend McPherson brainstormed business ideas.

“With my background in plumbing and electrical from the plant it’s like, oh yeah, I can handle that part of it,” Gerber said about distilling. “This is the easy part.”

He used Tri-State’s education subsidies for classes in distilling, while other co-workers learned to fix vehicles or repair guns to find new careers. While some plan to leave town, Gerber is opening Bad Alibi Distillery. McPherson and Tenniel Gerber are opening a cocktail bar next door.

Everyone in town hopes Trump will step in to extend the plant’s life, Gerber said. Meanwhile, they’re trying to define a new future for Craig in a nerve-wracking time.

“For me, my products can go elsewhere. I don’t necessarily have to sell it in Craig, there’s that avenue. For someone relying on Craig, it’s even scarier,” he said.

Questioning the coal rollback

Tammy Villard owns a gift shop, Moffat Mercantile, with her husband. After the coal closures were announced, they opened a commercial print shop too, seeing it as a practical choice for when so many high-paying jobs go away.

Villard, who spent a decade at Colowyo as administrative staff, said she doesn’t understand how the state can throw the switch to turn off coal and still have reliable electricity. She wants the state to slow down.

Villard describes herself as a moderate Republican. She said political swings at the federal level — from the green energy push in the last administration to doubling down on fossil fuels in this one — aren’t helpful.

“The pendulum has to come back to the middle,” she said, “and we are so far out to either side that I don’t know how we get back to that middle.”

___

The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content.



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