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Klarna is ready to ride the IPO roller coaster

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Going public right now is like a roller coaster with a serious height restriction—only the tallest companies can buckle up for the ride. 

Klarna, the Swedish fintech unicorn that made its name in buy now pay later, last week filed to go public on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker “KLAR.” And Klarna appears to meet the height requirement, so to speak—the company reported 2024 revenue of $2.8 billion (up from about $2.3 billion in 2023) plus 2024 net profits of $21 million. On Monday, Klarna followed up its F-1—not an S-1 because the company is based in Stockholm—by announcing it’s nabbed an exclusive buy now pay later deal with Walmart, a blow to rival Affirm. 

“Klarna is in a unique position with great revenue growth and the recent partnership with Walmart,” said Reena Aggarwal, director of the Georgetown University Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy, via email. “Even if this IPO is successful, it is not clear that IPOs more broadly will have a similar outcome.”

It’s important to remember that Klarna got here after enduring adversity. The company’s peak valuation in 2021 was $45.6 billion, and then tumbled to a low of $6.7 billion in 2022 in response to macroeconomic conditions and the fintech downturn. Since, the company’s valuation has gradually grown again, hitting the $15 billion range in the secondary markets. 

“Klarna was one of the first companies to ‘take their medicine’ in 2022 and substantially lower their valuation,” said Greg Martin, Rainmaker Securities managing director. “It was a bitter pill to swallow, but shows a prudent reset to create a few years of sustainable valuation growth to create a positive trajectory for an IPO. I think this will serve them well as investors like to think they are investing in long-term sustainable growth stories.”

“An important aspect of Klarna’s filing is their turnaround narrative—transitioning from substantial losses to achieving profitability ahead of their public debut,” Rudy Yang, PitchBook emerging technology senior analyst, said via email. “This reflects the market’s evolving expectations. However, their consumer credit losses represent a significant portion of their expenses, and could be further impacted by a potential economic down-cycle.”

Success for Klarna could have substantial ripple effects, private markets watchers say. 

“A strong debut by Klarna could encourage profitable or nearly profitable companies to go public once macro conditions stabilize,” said Howe Ng, head of data and investment solutions at Forge Global, via email.

These ripple effects could be especially clearly felt in fintech. 

“Klarna’s IPO represents a critical test case for the fintech sector, which has experienced a significant drought of public exits in recent years,” said PitchBook’s Yang. “For context, fintech public listings generated $222.7 billion in VC exit value in 2021. In the last three years combined, they generated just $28.7 billion.”

The IPO drought and fintech’s tough times have both coincided with the end of the ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) era, which led to higher interest rates and dicey consumer spending trends. 

“Investors and fintech companies alike will closely watch Klarna’s public market debut, as the company’s valuation and investor reception will establish a benchmark that could either accelerate or further delay the next wave of fintech offerings,” Yang added via email. 

I know, I know. The essential question remains: Is the IPO window open? CoreWeave, for example, carries a few big question marks, but recently filed to go public.

“The IPO market had opened up, however, it is very tough to get IPOs done when there is uncertainty and market volatility of last week,” Georgetown’s Aggarwal told Fortune. “Only the very strongest companies can go public in this environment and even they may get lower valuations than otherwise. We might need to wait for the markets to calm down before the IPO window opens fully.”

Until then, companies must be pretty darn tall to ride the IPO roller coaster. And once you’re on the ride, you’re likely to be thrown for a loop—or even a “loop-de-loop.” So, keep your arms, feet, legs, filings, and financials inside the ride. 

ICYMI… The SEC has issued new guidance making it easier for private equity and VC firms to more publicly advertise their funds and verify accredited investors based on high minimum investments. You can read more from Axios about the latest on Rule 506(c) here. Elsewhere, the Google-Wiz deal is reportedly back on, this time for (a reported) $33 billion.

See you tomorrow,

Allie Garfinkle
X:
@agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
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Nina Ajemian curated the deals section of today’s newsletter. Subscribe here.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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JPMorgan stock traders score windfall as Trump jolts market

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A chaotic run in stock markets is unleashing a windfall for banks’ equities traders.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. is on track to boost revenue from equities trading by more than 30% this quarter from a year earlier, according to people with knowledge of the matter. If the trajectory holds, the firm would surpass its $3.3 billion record set four years ago.

Such a trend could spell even bigger bounties at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, which typically vie for the industry’s stock-trading crown. While JPMorgan’s increase is particularly steep, Goldman’s equities unit is also running ahead of its pace last year, when it reaped $3.3 billion in the first three months, the people said, asking not to be named because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly.

Market swoons set off by President Donald Trump’s abrupt policy announcements are — for banks, at least — creating a rare bright spot amid signs of economic trouble. But the gyrations have tripped up hedge funds, stalled dealmakers’ talks on prospective mergers and shaken consumer confidence.

The resilience of equities desks is a nod to their evolution since the 2008 financial crisis. Their earnings hinge less on taking risks with their balance sheets and more on facilitating surges in client trading in response to price swings. Individual stock moves have unleashed bursts of derivatives trading, driving up banks’ gains.

Representatives for JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs declined to comment.

The boon for banks contrasts with the impact on multistrategy hedge funds — the big, all-weather investing platforms geared toward eking out gains irrespective of market conditions. The two largest, Ken Griffin’s Citadel and Izzy Englander’s Millennium Management, posted rare losses in February and slumped further in early March.

There’s pain in other corners of investment banks. Some dealmakers are ruing predictions that Trump’s return to the White House would unleash a wave of activity. Instead, they’re grousing about the uncertainty created by sudden tariff proclamations. The volume of new transactions announced globally this year is lower than at the start of 2024.  

Morgan Stanley Co-President Dan Simkowitz said as much on Tuesday. Merger and acquisition announcements and new equity issuance are “certainly on pause” as clients assess Trump’s policies, he said at a conference hosted by his bank.

Before 2008, big US banks made proprietary bets on stocks to reap billions of dollars a year, rather than confining themselves to just passively fielding client orders. But as new regulations reined in risk-taking, banks leaned on other aspects of their businesses, such as providing financing to clients interested in levering up bets to juice returns.

Three banks have dominated the stock-trading business over the past decade. Morgan Stanley held the top spot for seven years starting in 2014 before ceding it to Goldman. 

Along with JPMorgan, the trio raked in almost $36 billion from their equities businesses last year, pulling further ahead of competitors.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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How to watch the First Four of the 2025 NCAA Tournament for free—and without cable

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  • The First Four games of the NCAA Tournament are being held Tuesday and Wednesday, March 18 and 19. They’re an appetizer, of sorts, for the first round of March Madness, one of the most anticipated basketball tournaments of the year.

Selection Sunday is behind us. Now it’s time for March Madness to get underway. (Sorry, HR directors!)

The NCAA Tournament is one of the highlights of spring and while the Round of 64 will get underway later this week, fans will get an appetizer starting tonight with the First Four games.

This matchup sees the four lowest-seeded automatic qualifiers and the four lowest-seeded at-large teams face off in an attempt to make it to the official tournament. It’s where Cinderella stories are born and where longshot bets can pay off (though rarely do).

Here’s a look at who’s playing in the First Four—and some options to watch them.

What is the schedule for the NCAA Tournament’s First Four games?

Here’s who’s playing in the First Four.

Tuesday, March 19

St. Francis vs. Alabama State, 6:40 p.m. ET on TruTV

UNC vs. San Diego State, 9:10 p.m. ET on TruTV

Wednesday, March 20

Mt. St. Mary’s vs. American, 6:40 p.m. ET on TruTV

Xavier vs. Texas, 9:10 p.m. ET on TruTV

How can I watch the First Four games for free?

Ok, here’s the bad news. None of the First Four games will be broadcast over the air, meaning you’ll need either a cable subscription or a streaming service to watch. Many streaming services have done away with free trials, but a few remain. See below for details.

Can I watch the 2025 First Four games online?

Yep! Here are a few other options.

Max

The one-time HBO Max doesn’t have a free trial, unfortunately. Subscriptions start at $9.99 per month.

Disney+

Disney’s bundle of Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ no longer has a free trial, so you’ll have to pay $17 per month for all three combined (or $30 per month for no ads on Hulu).

Including Live TV in the bundle bumps the price to $77 per month ($90 with no ads).

Hulu with Live TV

The free trial on this service lasts three days. Afterward, it will cost you $77 per month.

YouTubeTV

After a free trial, you can expect monthly charges of $73.

Sling TV

Dish Network’s Sling lower-tiered “Orange” plan will run you $40 per month. Adding the more comprehensive “Blue” plan bumps the cost to $55 per month. The seven-day free trial has disappeared, unfortunately.

DirecTV Stream

Formerly known as DirecTV Now, AT&T TVNow and AT&T TV, this oft-renamed streaming service will run you $80 per month and up after the free trial option.

Fubo TV

This sports-focused cord-cutting service carries broadcast networks in most markets. There’s a seven-day free trial, followed by monthly charges of $80 and up, depending on the channels you choose.

Can I watch any March Madness games on Amazon Prime Video?

No. March Madness do not stream on Amazon, unless you purchase a subscription to a streaming service.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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How news organizations should overhaul their operations as the gen AI threatens their livelihoods

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Hello and welcome to Eye on AI. In this edition…The news media grapples with AI; Trump orders U.S. AI Safety efforts to refocus on combating ‘ideological bias’; distributed training is gaining increasing traction; increasingly powerful AI could tip the scales toward totalitarianism.

AI is potentially disruptive to many organizations’ business models. In few sectors, however, is the threat as seemingly existential as the news business. That happens to be the business I’m in, so I hope you will forgive a somewhat self-indulgent newsletter. But news ought to matter to all of us since a functioning free press performs an essential role in democracy—informing the public and helping to hold power to account. And, there are some similarities between how news executives are—and critically, are not—addressing the challenges and opportunities AI presents that business leaders in other sectors can learn from, too.

Last week, I spent a day at an Aspen Institute conference entitled “AI & News: Charting the Course,” that was hosted at Reuters’ headquarters in London. The conference was attended by top executives from a number of U.K. and European news organizations. It was held under Chatham House Rules so I can’t tell you who exactly said what, but I can relay what was said.

Tools for journalists and editors

News executives spoke about using AI primarily in internally-facing products to make their teams more efficient. AI is helping write search engine-optimized headlines and translate content—potentially letting organizations reach new audiences in places they haven’t traditionally served, though most emphasized keeping humans in the loop to monitor accuracy.

One editor described using AI to automatically produce short articles from press releases, freeing journalists for on-ground reporting, while maintaining human editors for quality control. Journalists are also using AI to summarize documents and analyze large datasets—like government document dumps and satellite imagery—enabling investigative journalism that would be difficult without these tools. These are good use cases, but they result in modest impact—mostly around making existing workflows more efficient.

Bottom-up or top-down?

There was active debate among the newsroom leaders and techies present about whether news organizations should take a bottom-up approach—putting generative AI tools in the hands of every journalist and editor, allowing these folks to run their own data analysis or “vibe code” AI-powered widgets to help them in their jobs, or whether efforts should be top-down, with the management prioritizing projects.

The bottom-up approach has merits—it democratizes access to AI, empowers frontline employees who often know the pain points and can often spot good use cases before high-level execs can, and frees limited AI developer talent to be spent only on projects that are bigger, more complex, and potentially more strategically important.

The downside of the bottom-up approach is that it can be chaotic, making it hard for the organization to ensure compliance with ethical and legal policies. It can create technical debt, with tools being built on the fly that can’t be easily maintained or updated. One editor worried about creating a two-tiered newsroom, with some editors embracing the new tech, and others falling behind. Bottom-up also doesn’t ensure that solutions generate the best return on investment—a key consideration as AI models can quickly get expensive. Many called for a balanced approach, though no one was sure how to achieve it. From conversations I’ve had with execs in other sectors, this dilemma is familiar across industries.

Caution about jeopardizing trust

News outfits are also being cautious about building audience-facing AI tools. Many have begun using AI to produce bullet-point summaries of articles that can help busy and increasingly impatient readers. Some have built AI chatbots that can answer questions about a particular, narrow subset of their coverage—like stories about the Olympics or climate change—but they have tended to label these as “experiments” in order to help flag to readers that the answers may not always be accurate. Few have gone further in terms of AI-generated content. This is for good reason—they worry that gen AI-produced hallucinations will undercut the trust in the accuracy of their journalism on which their brands and their businesses ultimately depend.

Those who hesitate will be lost?

This caution, while understandable, is itself a colossal risk. If news organizations themselves aren’t using AI to summarize the news and make it more interactive, technology companies are. People are increasingly turning to AI search engines and chatbots, including Perplexity, OpenAI’s ChatGPT, and Google’s Gemini and the “AI Overviews” Google now provides in response to many searches, and many others. Several news executives at the conference said “disintermediation”—the loss of a direct connection with their audience—was their biggest fear. 

They have cause to be worried. Many news organizations (including Fortune) are at least partly dependent on Google search to bring in audiences. A recent study by Tollbit—which sells software that helps protect websites from web crawlers—found that clickthrough rates for Google AI Overviews were 91% lower than from a traditional Google Search. (Google has not yet used AI overviews for news queries, although many think it is only a matter of time.) Other studies of click through rates from chatbot conversations are equally abysmal. Cloudflare, which is also offering to help protect news publishers from web scraping, found that OpenAI scraped a news site 250 times for every one referral page view it sent that site.

So far, news organizations have responded to this potentially existential threat through a mix of legal pushback—the New York Times has sued OpenAI for copyright violations, while Dow Jones and the New York Post have sued Perplexity—and partnerships. Those partnerships have involved multiyear, seven-figure licensing deals for news content. (Fortune has a partnership with both Perplexity and ProRata.) Many of the execs at the conference said the licensing deals were a way to make revenue from content the tech companies had most likely already “stolen” anyway. They also saw the partnerships as a way to build relationships with the tech companies and tap their expertise to help them build AI products or train their staffs. None saw the relationships as particularly stable. They were all aware of the risk of becoming overly reliant on AI licensing revenue, having been burned previously when the media industry let Facebook become a major driver of traffic and ad revenue. Later, that money vanished practically overnight when Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg decided, after the 2016 U.S. presidential election, to de-emphasize news in people’s feeds.

An AI-powered Ferrari yoked to a horse cart

Executives acknowledged needing to build direct audience relationships that can’t be disintermediated by AI companies, but few had clear strategies for doing so. One expert at the conference said bluntly that “the news industry is not taking AI seriously,” focusing on “incremental adaptation rather than structural transformation.” He likened current approaches to a three-step process that had “an AI-powered Ferrari” at both ends, but “a horse and cart in the middle.”

He and another media industry advisor urged news organizations to get away from organizing their approach to news around “articles,” and instead think about ways in which source material (public data, interview transcripts, documents obtained from sources, raw video footage, audio recordings, and archival news stories) could be turned into a variety of outputs—podcasts, short form video, bullet-point summaries, or yes, a traditional news article—to suit audience tastes on the fly by generative AI technology. They also urged news organizations to stop thinking of the production of news as a linear process, and begin thinking about it more as a circular loop, perhaps one in which there was no human in the middle.

One person at the conference said that news organizations needed to become less insular and look more closely at insights and lessons from other industries and how they were adapting to AI. Others said that it might require startups—perhaps incubated by the news organizations themselves—to pioneer new business models for the AI age.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. While AI poses existential challenges to traditional journalism, it also offers unprecedented opportunities to expand reach and potentially reconnect with audiences who have “turned off news”—if leaders are bold enough to reimagine what news can be in the AI era.

With that, here’s more AI news. 

Jeremy Kahn
jeremy.kahn@fortune.com
@jeremyakahn

Correction: Last week’s Tuesday edition of Eye on AI misidentified the country where Trustpilot is headquartered. It is Denmark. Also, a news item in that edition misidentified the name of the Chinese startup behind the viral AI model Manus. The name of the startup is Butterfly Effect.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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