Ken Welch may have just had his last best day

St. Petersburg Mayor Ken Welch did something unprecedented in local politics Wednesday: He delivered the annual State of the City address and officially kicked off his re-election bid on the same day.

But do not mistake unprecedented for wise. There’s a reason most elected officials don’t combine two major events into one day, and it has something to do with an important thing called the news cycle. By squeezing both marquee events into the same day, Welch squandered an opportunity to capitalize on two news cycles, and somehow barely managed to capitalize on just the one.

In fact, Feb. 18, 2026, may just go down as Welch’s last best day, or the beginning of his last stand.

Welch posted to his politician Facebook page Wednesday about his State of the City address. It garnered just 11 comments, two shares and 64 reactions, one of which was a crying emoji and five of which were laughing emojis.

Compare that to Tampa Mayor Jane Castor, whose post following her most recent State of the City Address last April received 151 comments, 20 shares and more than 525 reactions. There were no crying reactions, but there were about a dozen laughs and one angry reaction. Still, the difference in engagement is staggering, and a reminder that Welch’s administration is on the ropes.

Meanwhile, at his State of the City address, I hovered around the Palladium. While I spotted some mid-level city officials, it was clear there was an effort to fill the Palladium with rank-and-file city employees, even if that  meant meter maids were put in the seats. One supporter at the event who asked not to be named said they thought the turnout this year was about half what it was the year before.

Whether that account of year-over-year turnover is accurate isn’t directly clear, but what is clear is that delivering a State of the City speech is one of the major advantages for someone seeking re-election, or a different elected office, and it’s a perk of being the incumbent.

But the opportunity still feels squandered.

It remains curious to me why Welch is insisting on running on his record. I could see some sound reasoning behind a campaign pitch that calls on voters to deliver him a chance to keep the work going — a “we’re not done yet” kind of campaign. But I see no value in pointing to a track record that, by most accounts, has failed.

That record includes likely losing the Tampa Bay Rays, a failed hurricane response, absenteeism at City Hall (and during a hurricane), staff turnover, and a Gas Plant District process many feel is too rushed following the aforementioned loss of the Rays through the last failed stadium deal.

Credit where credit is due, Welch’s talking points on a $600 million bond to accomplish some long-neglected infrastructure improvements speaks to his strengths as a legislative elected official, as he was when he served as a Pinellas County Commissioner. He will probably be able to out-explain the bond issue to anyone running against him.

But that skill makes him a great legislator, not a great chief executive.

And Welch keeps pointing to “a great team,” but I’m not sure to whom he is referring. His first year was marked by the resignation of his Communications Director, citing a hostile work environment created by his No. 2, then-Deputy Mayor Stephanie Owens, who resigned as a result of the allegations and others that came to light in the aftermath. The person he hired to replace his first Comms Director resigned too.

And then there is his campaign. Oh dear God. Sir, you do not have a great team when that team fails to stop its Treasurer from stealing $207,000 from your PAC. You don’t have a great team when the state revokes your first PAC because reports weren’t filed on time, over and over. You don’t have a great team when you are now on PAC No. 3.

And you certainly don’t have a great team when you entered the year of your re-election campaign with just $31,000 in the bank.

If the room for his State of the City address was mostly full, his host committee for his kickoff was not. Sure, it included a handful of elected officials, such as Rep. Michele Rayner, Pinellas County Commissioner Rene Flowers and St. Pete City Council members Deborah Figgs-Sanders and Copley Gerdes. It also included some former elected officials and some big names in the business community, such as Rays CEO Ken Babby.

But for an incumbent Mayor in a mid-sized American city where mayoral contests routinely cost upward of $2 million to win, the size of both Welch’s kickoff host committee and his campaign coffer is sparse at best, embarrassing at worst.

Heck, photos from the kickoff show there were about 75 people in attendance, though we haven’t gotten an official count. It’s not a terrible turnout, but for an incumbent you’d expect a little better.

I was told by one attendee that the crowd was small enough that the St. Pete Athletic staff allowed pickleball to continue to be played while the Welch event was going on.

There were a lot of moments in his kickoff where Welch took direct shots at Charlie Crist, who hasn’t even yet declared his candidacy. First, he blasted the former Governor over fundraising Welch described as old money. But even if you ignore the funds transferred from Crist’s former political committee to the one now expected to support a possible mayoral bid, the committee has still raised more than triple what Welch collected, and in one-third the time.

And all the while, Welch is going negative on a man who has yet to say a negative word about him. I know for a fact, for example, that after it was discovered Welch’s committee had suffered a $207,000 theft, Crist called Welch to offer his support.

It’s clear Welch has a loyal following. Flowers may be chief among them. But her recent social media posts offering an ardent defense of her guy do little to improve his station in this still-forming race and, instead, are more likely to suggest his supporters are reading the tea leaves.

Instead of examining why so few people joined Welch’s kickoff host committee, why so many people are pledging to run against him, and why campaign cash is not piling up, they are making excuses for the vast difference in political war chests.

This is Welch’s second run for Mayor. He knows how much money it costs to win, how much money it costs to flood the airwaves, pack mailboxes with supportive flyers and otherwise get the word out. He can hem and haw all day long about where the money came from. But at the end of the day, the candidate with the cash advantage will have the whole advantage, period.

That’s not to ignore the power and importance of grassroots campaigning. But failing to appreciate how desperate a situation Welch finds himself in with just $48,000 in the bank is just plain naïve.

One Welch supporter implied in a comment on social media that people were full of hatred and racism for not supporting Welch. Calling it like it is has nothing to do with skin color and everything to do with seeking competent leadership.

The voters will decide who that competent leader is, but at this rate, it’s looking increasingly likely it won’t be Welch.