Ken Welch above water, but storm surge threatens to overtake him

St. Petersburg Mayor Ken Welch’s approval rating among voters is higher than his disapproval rating, but only barely, all but inviting a challenger to step up and exploit his weaknesses. 

A St. Pete Polls survey commissioned by Florida Politics finds that shy of 38% of respondents approve of the job Welch is doing as Mayor, with more than 34% disapproving. This 3.4 percentage point margin puts Welch’s approval rating within the poll’s margin of error. 

I don’t recall a Mayor ever having that many constituents against them in recent St. Pete history. But what’s perhaps even worse for Welch is the number of people who aren’t sure whether they approve or disapprove of the Mayor’s job performance, at nearly 28%. 

And to put that even further in perspective, the last time an incumbent Mayor lost a re-election bid in St. Pete — in 2013 when former Mayor Rick Kriseman dashed former Mayor Bill Foster’s hopes of a second term — Foster was actually polling with a much higher favorability rating than Welch is now. In December 2012, just over a year before Election Day, which is comparable to the current distance from the 2026 Election, Foster had an approval rating above 54%. He lost the following year to Kriseman by 12 percentage points. 

Even without that historical context, and for those unfamiliar with the intricacies of campaigning — or considering a potential run for office — the nearly 28% signal that with a strong message, there are plenty of persuadable voters to challenge even an incumbent. 

Boiled down to demographics, things don’t look any better for Welch, a Democrat. Nearly 22% of Democrats polled said they disapprove of Welch’s job performance, while fewer than half (49%) approved. More than 29% of Democrats are unsure. 

And among independent voters, Welch is actually upside down, with more than 33% approving of his job performance and a full 35% disapproving. Nearly 32% are unsure. 

Welch, the city’s first Black Mayor, may also face trouble among Black voters. While a vast majority (57%) approve of his job performance, nearly 11% don’t. That’s a big gap, and Welch is far above water in this metric. However, General Elections for Mayor in St. Pete have historically relied on carrying the Black community. And even with Welch seeming to have a strong edge, ceding double-digits to another candidate could prove a difference maker in a tight race. 

Among White voters, Welch is upside down, with a 41% disapproval rating and just 33% approval. 

Given the challenges Welch has faced in his first term — staff turnover, a perceived botched storm recovery, accusations of absenteeism, the unraveled Rays stadium deal, and more — perhaps being 3 points above water is a win. 

But consider this: The poll comes before Welch faces any credible challenge, and campaigning against him by the only person actually in the race has been virtually non-existent. 

That begs the question: What will Welch’s approval look like when he starts receiving campaign mailers attacking his various blunders?

If +3 is his high mark, it definitely signals potential trouble ahead. 

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