Keeneland Late P5 Picks & Preview (Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup)

Keeneland Late P5 Analysis: Races 6–10 Preview

This weekend we are looking at the “calm before the storm,” as we have a relatively quiet weekend of racing before the action begins to heat up. The Breeders’ Cup is on the horizon, which will be held at Keeneland this year. This weekend Let ‘em Run will look at the Late P5 at Keeneland where 4 of the 5 races are for the ladies. The sequence includes a nice edition of The Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes race, with a full field of 11 runners slated to go. This is our breakdown of the sequence.

Race 6: OC 125K/N2X

3:40 EST | 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

This race has a strong speed bias according to Brisnet.com stats. That lands us squarely on the #7 Where Luck Lives (3-1). Last race she was in over her head against the likes of Explora and Percy’s Bar, and she is back where she belongs. The BSF posted 2 and 3 races back are strong and would do the job here. The #5 Sneaky Good (5-2) gets jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. back in the saddle. Trainer Brad Cox has this runner getting Lasix for the 1st time to help her strong closing kick. The #1 Braverthanubelieve (4-1) has the rail position, which hits at 38% at 6 furlongs, looking for 4 wins in a row with jockey John Velazquez up for trainer Lauren Robson. This runner is also getting Lasix for the 1st time, a strong move for this trainer (50%).

• Our ticket will include: 1, 5, 7

Race 7: MSW 110K

4:12 EST | 1 Mile (Turf)

A big field of two-year-old fillies is a good reason to go deep here, and we will. There are five first-time starters in the body of the race. We like the #6 Tannhauser (5-1) best for trainer Cherie DeVaux. This expensive daughter of Corniche has been prepping strongly for the debut and gets jockey Jose Ortiz to ride. The #9 Sugar Hallow (8-1) has experience and just missed first time out for trainer William Walden, who hits at 32% with runners second time out. Another first-time runner, #7 Rumana (9-2) for trainer Brad Cox, looks to be ready to fire, and 22% for runners debuting at a mile or more adds to the appeal. This gray filly sired by Tapit could be ready to fire at first asking.

• Our ticket will include: 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 11

Race 8: OC 80K/N2X

4:44 EST | 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

This looks like the most formful race in the sequence, and we narrowed our selections down to two choices. The #4 Bold Strength (5-2) looks like the one to beat, and with trainer Brad Cox and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. hooking up, this entry looks strong. Trainer Cox is also 33% with a beaten favorite and 33% with runners going from sprint to route and back to a sprint. If the #2 Zat’s the One (8-1) can replicate the run 2 back, he could lead this field on a merry chase to the wire. Shortening up to 7 furlongs adds to the appeal.

• Our ticket will include: 2, 4 (may consider singling the #4)

Race 9: The QE II Cup (Gr. 1, $750K)

5:16 EST | 1 ⅛ Miles (Turf)

The race of the day at Keeneland, and we have our eye firmly on 3 runners. The #4 Faithful Departed (7-2) has been keeping good company and looks like the one to beat with jockey Jose Ortiz in the saddle. Trainer Grant Forster has this gal getting better every time out, and she could be sitting on a big race here. Ireland-bred #9 Kensington Lane (8-1) could get a jump on the field if jockey Joel Rosario applies front-running tactics. The #2 Luster (5-2) is the #1 Prime Power and is looking to win her 4th in a row. The switch back to turf is just what jockey John Velazquez likes to see.

• Our ticket will include: 2, 4, 9

Race 10: MSW 110K

5:48 EST | 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

This is a loaded field in this MSW with 12 runners ready to go. The first-time starter on the rail, #1 Elusive Ring (6-1), could be a runner from the get-go. The rail position is hitting at a strong 38% at 6 furlongs, and the workouts say this gal is ready to fire for trainer Brian Lynch. A runner going from turf to dirt is #3 Only Me (10-1), and trainer Wesley Ward hits at 34% with this move. Jockey Yedsit Hazlewood is due for a breakout weekend. We see #5 Ghost Sense (12-1) getting a jump on the field after showing speed and tiring first time out. The experience may give this runner an edge with the best Timeform Early Pace of 125.

Late P5 Ticket & Final Thoughts

• Our full ticket looks like this: 1,5,7 / 2,3,6,7,9,11 / 2,4 / 2,4,9 / 1,3,5,11,12 = $270 (or $135 if you single in race 8)

If your budget allows, in race 8, we would use both the #2 and #4. If you only use the #4, the ticket is more manageable at $135—your call. Our ticket structure can change when the scratches are posted, and we will keep an eye to the sky on Saturday as well, as wet weather is predicted in Lexington on Saturday.

Be sure to tune in today at 12:30 on Sports Talk Media Network or Capital Sports Talk for our podcast where John Kostin and myself will further analyze the Keeneland races after scratches may affect the shape of the races. A link is in this article to tune in.

As always, bet smart, cheer hard, fast horses can lead to some serious fun, and in the end, just Let ‘em Run.