All the major U.S. stock market indices would need to have strong ends of the year just to finish flat. While that’s not impossible for the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and the Dow, it usually only happens in years when the market is on an upswing, not experiencing a downturn as it is now.
Since President Donald Trump announced his sweeping tariff policy over a week ago and sent global markets into turmoil, the U.S. stock market has lost trillions in wealth. All the major indices such as the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average are down for the year after markets reacted extremely negatively to Trump’s new trade policy.
The major selloff induced by the new Trump policy reversed what was shaping up to be another good year in the markets. Investors and analysts had expected the U.S. stock market to continue to deliver solid returns, even if it did slow down from the record-setting pace of the previous two years. In fact, Trump’s election brought a new wave of market optimism, as initially stocks soared on the back of what many had viewed as a pro-business president.
Now the opposite is true. Markets are sinking on the back of the uncertainty Trump injected into the U.S. economy since he returned to the White House.
To make up for the losses they’ve incurred so far this year, the major U.S. stock indices—the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow—would all have to rally to an extent that isn’t unheard of, but has only ever happened in good years.
However, a strong year in 2025 seems unlikely. Since the market crash caused by Trump’s tariff announcements, most major Wall Street banks have revised their annual forecasts for the economy to reflect the ongoing downturn. Some of those banks even called for a recession as the stock market slide coincided with cratering bond markets and a devaluing of the U.S. dollar.
Through Friday, the S&P 500 is down 8.8%—a stark reversal from the rip-roaring gains of 2023 and 2024 that together accounted for the best two-year stretch since 1998.
In order to turn around that loss and end the year flat, the S&P 500 would need to rise 9.4% from its closing price on April 11 to Dec. 31. In that case, investors won’t have lost any money, but they wouldn’t have gained a cent either.
A similar or better growth rate from April 11 to the end of the year isn’t completely out of the ordinary for the S&P 500. In fact, it’s happened 22 times since the modern day version of the index was established in 1957. While that sounds like good news, investors shouldn’t be too quick to rejoice. The S&P 500 only grows 9.4% or more from April 11 onwards in bull years, not during down markets like 2025, according to data supplied by wealth manager AssetMark and Fortune’s calculations. The worst performing such year, 2016, had a total annual return of 12%. The best year, 1958, had a juicy 43.4% annual return. Across all 22 years that fit that criteria, the average annual return was 27%.
In other words, the S&P 500 soars from April through December when the market is ripping, not when it’s limping toward a zero percent return.
To be sure, there is a notable precedent for a market crisis early in the year turning into a year of major gains. In 2020, the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the S&P 500 had the best April 11-to-December performance on record, with gains of 34.6% over that time period. That led to an overall annual return of 18.4%. However, those market slumps were caused by different reasons. In 2020, markets reacted to the spread of a highly infectious disease for which there wasn’t yet a cure, while this time around they were responding to a trade policy intentionally implemented by an elected official.
Potential recoveries for the Nasdaq and the Dow have the same dynamics as those of the S&P 500. They need to rise by a reasonable rate, but one that only happens when the stock market is flourishing, not when it’s trying to resuscitate itself.
Analysts now expect 2025’s stock market performance to be worse than they forecasted at the start of the year. In December 2024, the Wall Street consensus for the S&P 500 had a median price target of 6,625, according to data from LSEG. That would have meant a 12.9% increase for 2025 based on where the S&P 500 opened on Jan. 2.
Over the last week, a slew of banks lowered their forecasts for the S&P 500 far below the median from the start of the year. BMO revised its slightly bullish call of 6,700 to 6,100. Goldman Sachs cut its forecast twice this year, from 6,500 to 6,200 and then again to 5,700. The second Goldman revision would imply a loss of 2.8% this year. UBS and RBC also expect a loss for the year.
In 2025, the Nasdaq is down 10.9%. The decline is a 180 from where the index started the year, topping 22,000 in February. The Nasdaq would need to rise 12.2% to end the year where it started at 20.975.62. It’s not a rarity to see a 12% rally from April to December. It’s happened 20 times since Nasdaq was established in 1985, according to AssetMark’s data and Fortune’s calculations. But again, it only happens in positive years. The worst year with at least a 12.2% run-up in our time frame, 1992, had an 8.9% annual return. The best return of the batch was 1999, which had a 102% return.
The Dow, which was spared the worst of the crash, is down 5.1% in 2025. In order to finish the year without a loss, the Dow would need to rise 5.4% for the rest of the year. The Dow’s historical performance might offer investors a sliver of hope. Out of the 35 times since 1958 when it has grown at least 5.4% from April 11 to December, there was one year the index didn’t finish positive. In 1984, the Dow grew 7.1% over that span, while ending the year with a total loss of -3.7%. But for the most part, the 35 previous years that fit our criteria did coincide with strong growth. The average for the Dow in those years was 18.6%. The best year was 1975, which had a 38.2% return for the year.
Like Gen Z, this self-made CEO believes in the power of manifesting success—but he insists that visualization alone isn’t enough. It has to be backed by relentless commitment and daily accountability. That’s why, every single night, he asks himself this one simple but revealing question.
What do you ask yourself before bed? Some list things they’re grateful for. Others frantically run through their never-ending to-do list. Sheldon Yellen, CEO of Belfor, rates his productivity for the day—and urges Gen Z career starters to do the same.
“Every night, when I’m getting ready, washing up, brushing my teeth, I look in the mirror—I physically look in the mirror—and answer one question every night,” the $3 billion-a-year disaster recovery chief exec explains his daily high-performance habit to Fortune.
“That question, it’s a simple question, but it’s a difficult answer: How productive were you today? I ask myself that question every single night and I answer it as honestly as I can.”
Yellen then gives himself a score (1% being the worst)—and he says, he wouldn’t be able to sleep if he got bottom marks. “I’d start working,” the self-made billionaire adds.
“When I mentor young people, I tell them: ‘Every day is your day. Today is your day. But when you look in the mirror tonight, how much of it did you actually make count? Were you productive for 65%? 72%? 81%?”
You are the master of your own success
Of course, the evening exercise is easy to cheat—after all, it’s not a real exam, and you’re the one keeping score. But it serves as a powerful reminder that your success is in your hands.
Yellen is a prime example of this: Growing up in poverty, he started working as a dishwasher at just 11 years old in a Coney Island diner before getting a gig at an affluent men’s health club, Southfield Athletic Club, in Detroit.
“I started out shining shoes and cleaning toilets, urinals and the shower area, and I did the laundry,” the 67-year-old recalls.
“I took full advantage of these opportunities to do whatever I was doing the best I could do. I believed that if you did it long enough, somebody would notice—and they did, and so more opportunity kept presenting itself to me at a young age.”
After dropping out of high school, Yellen says he worked seven days a week—including “on the streets”—to turn his life around. He shined shoes, washed cars, chauffeured entertainers in limousines, and hustled until he landed in the restoration industry at 26 years old.
Since then, he’s climbed the ranks at Belfor (then known as Inrecon) from its 19th employee to CEO of around 12,000 employees worldwide.
Under his helm, Belfor has become the world’s largest disaster recovery company—it receives around 330,000 callouts a year to deal with the fallout from hurricanes, flooding, terrorist attacks, and more. Over the course of four decades at the company, Yellen has overseen the clean-up after 9/11, Hurricane Katrina, and the 2011 Thai floods, to name a few.
“I believe if you lay down at night and you dream it and you visualize it, and then believe it, you can be it—I really do,” Yellen says of his impressive journey to the top. “I came from a family raised on welfare. There was no guarantee I’d be where I’m at. I dreamt. I visualized it. I hear it in song. I believed it. I still believe it.”
But of course, visualizing success—which Yellen describes as mapping out a path forward—is just one piece of the puzzle.
“All that’s needed is the commitment,” he adds. Like holding yourself accountable every night and reviewing your productivity with complete honesty.
“Now, you got to have patience. It doesn’t happen overnight, but if you’re committed and you get others to believe in your commitment, they will help you along.”
Southeast Asia is showing signs of a potential consumer boom. Incomes in the region have been on the rise, partly owing to increasing foreign investment as global corporations look to reorganize their supply chains. The area’s increasingly affluent population is also quite young: Its median age of around 30.4 years is considerably younger than that of the U.S., Europe, or China.
This fast-rising group has another distinctive characteristic: About 40% of Southeast Asia’s population, roughly 281 million people, are Muslim, based on Fortune calculations using World Bank data and census figures. And that particular demographic is fast becoming a key consumer group, as both local companies and established multinationals grow even more sensitive to their needs.
The Muslim consumer market in Southeast Asia spreads across Singapore, Brunei, the Philippines, and Thailand. But its largest hubs are in Malaysia, where about 64% of the population identifies as Muslim, and Indonesia, home to more Muslims than any other country—about 242 million, according to 2023 census figures.
The middle class in the Islamic community has been steadily expanding, according to Afra Alatas, a research officer who studies Muslim societies in Southeast Asia for Singapore think tank ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute. And as this group of consumers grows richer, Afra notes, “Muslim consumers—particularly those in the middle class—increasingly desire a more ‘Islamic’ lifestyle.”
Afra says this desire is manifest in a growing demand for goods and services that are halal (that is, permissible under Islam). It’s fueling a boom in companies that offer halal-certified non-consumable goods like cosmetics; “modest fashion,” which reflects Islamic values of modesty while still being stylish; and tourism packages.
Globally, Muslim consumers spent $2.29 trillion on halal products and services in 2022, up 41% from $1.62 trillion in 2012, per research from Salaam Gateway, a Dubai-headquartered organization that tracks the global Islamic economy. That total is forecasted to rise to $3.1 trillion by 2027—making observant Muslims a market that few companies in any region can afford to ignore.
“When we divide the world population by religions, the Muslim population is increasing the most,” says Cédomir Nestorovic, a professor at the ESSEC Business School in Singapore who focuses on Islamic business and management. World Bank data shows that many Muslim-majority countries have moved from low-income to middle-income status—including Indonesia and Malaysia.
“The demographics are clearly on the side of Muslim people,” Nestorovic says.
One of the biggest Muslim-consumer success stories in the region is Wardah, an Indonesian cosmetics and personal care brand that makes halal cosmetics.
Many non-practitioners of Islam are aware of the concept of halal as it applies to food and beverages: Observant Muslims are called upon to avoid pork and eschew alcohol, and halal butchers are obliged to slaughter animals in a cruelty free manner. Those concepts, it turns out, are quite relevant when it comes to beauty products, where the use of alcohol (in perfume) and of collagen or gelatin from pigs (in facial products) is not uncommon, and where testing products on animals is often controversial.
Wardah observes these laws and avoids any additives that would be haram (impermissible). Founded in 1995, the company began to see meaningful growth from about 2005, according to Sari Chairunnisa, deputy CEO and vice president of research and development at Paragon Technology and Innovation, Wardah’s parent company. (Sari is also the daughter of Paragon’s founder, Nurhayati Subakat.)
The company was held back in its early years by the fact that regional consumers had less disposable income and lacked knowledge about the availability of halal products, Sari says. And Wardah’s own products needed improvement, she adds: It took time to master the art of making higher-quality lipsticks and foundation that proved durable and long-lasting.
Wardah is a private company and doesn’t publicly report its revenue, but says it currently holds about 30% of Indonesia’s beauty market, which includes personal care and cosmetics. It also sells its products in Malaysia and Brunei.
Customers outside shops in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Sunday, Feb. 9, 2025. Malaysia is scheduled to release gross domestic product (GDP) figures on Feb. 14. Photographer: Samsul Said/Bloomberg via Getty Images
But Wardah is hardly the only Indonesian brand to find success among Muslim consumers. “Modest fashion” company Buttonscarves, a startup founded in 2016, now has physical stores across Indonesia and Malaysia, and an online store that serves the rest of Southeast Asia and global customers. It found a market gap where few designers catered to “contemporary Muslim women,” according to founder and CEO Linda Anggrea. “I wanted to build something that not only met the fashion needs of Muslim women but also gave them a sense of confidence,” she says. “There weren’t many brands that combined premium quality and design.”
Anggrea started with a single product—scarves—and has since moved into selling clothing and other accessories. Buttonscarves is now the flagship in a group of eight brands that fall under the umbrella of the Modinity Group; a company spokesperson says Modinity earned revenue of $80 million to $100 million for 2024.
Rising incomes aren’t the only factor driving the rise of the Muslim consumer in Southeast Asia; technology and government initiatives have also played a role.
In this region, as elsewhere in the world, smartphones have changed the consumer landscape as they’ve become more accessible. The proliferation of technology allows Muslim entrepreneurs to promote halal products, and social media has increasingly enabled companies to lean on influencers to market their wares.
“Religious preachers, online influencers, and Muslim entrepreneurs use their platforms to market their products—and in some cases to explain or justify their permissibility according to religious precepts—to their followers,” says Afra, the researcher in Singapore.
Anggrea of Buttonscarves says her business has benefited from the changing perception of modest fashion in the past decade. Social media influencers who advocate modest fashion have shown that wearing a hijab is something that can also be fashionable; so, too, have widely promoted fashion shows. If you’re an observant Muslim woman, “you can be as stylish as you want,” Anggrea says.
But government initiatives are arguably an even bigger driver for the adoption of a halal economy. Much like governments in the Middle East, those of Muslim majority countries like Indonesia and Malaysia have introduced various policies to promote the halal economy or greater compliance with sharia, or Islamic law, by businesses.
Consider that Indonesia wants all cosmetics sold in the country to be halal certified from October of next year. The move stems from the Halal Product Assurance law of 2014, which requires products like food, cosmetics, and apparel to be halal-certified. Regulation like this arguably benefits companies like Wardah that already have a head start in ensuring product compliance and have built up trust among the community. (Non-Muslims, of course, can and do also buy halal products.)
Consumer banking, too, has become more proactive in serving the Muslim community. Islamic finance is already big business in the Middle East, driven by economies like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
In Southeast Asia, Malaysia is the leading economy for Islamic finance. Malaysia’s government first began promoting the sector as an alternative to the conventional finance system following the Asian Financial Crisis of the late 1990s. Interest in Islamic finance offerings gained traction again after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008: Islamic banks were viewed as more robust and safer than conventional banks because they didn’t trade in junk bonds or take part in short-selling or speculation—all seen as factors that had destabilized the global financial system.
In order to be sharia-compliant, banks must avoid investments in companies whose products do harm; they are also obligated to avoid companies that make or sell haram products like pork or alcohol. More significantly, Islamic banking can’t rely on interest payments, which are barred under some interpretations of Islamic law.
Malaysia’s biggest bank, Maybank, is the parent company of the Asia-Pacific region’s largest Islamic financial operation. Maybank, as a group, has banking services more often associated with traditional finance. But Islamic banking contributed about 28% to the group’s pretax profits. Maybank Group reported revenues of $14.2 billion in 2023, placing it at No. 17 on the Fortune Southeast Asia 500.
Customers use automated teller machines (ATMs) inside a combined Malayan Banking Bhd. (Maybank) and Maybank Islamic Bhd. bank branch in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Tuesday, May 21, 2024. Maybank, Malaysia’s largest lender, is scheduled to release earnings on May 24. Photographer: KG Krishnan/Bloomberg via Getty Images
“From a Muslim perspective, if I invest or save money and I get an interest, it’s very difficult for them to accept. We want to ease that,” says Dato Muzaffar Hisham, who oversees the group’s Islamic finance operations.
While interest is forbidden, there are still sharia-compliant methods to grow wealth. Among them is the financial principle of murabaha. This involves a bank customer purchasing an approved sharia-compliant asset and selling that asset to the bank at an agreed-upon marked-up price. The markup takes the place of the interest that would be involved in a traditional fixed deposit. (A similar process is used when a customer seeks financing options.)
Islamic finance in Southeast Asia amounted to roughly $859 billion in 2023, up from $754 billion in 2020, according to the latest study by the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector and the London Stock Exchange Group. The total global market for Islamic finance was estimated to be worth around $4.9 trillion in 2023.
Muzaffar sees an opportunity for Maybank to further expand from Malaysia into Indonesia either through wealth management or financing as the population becomes wealthier.
Maybank’s Islamic banking window through Unit Usaha Syariah PT Bank Maybank Indonesia grew its assets by 4.7% year on year in 2024 to reach 42.96 trillion rupiah ($2.6 billion) and contributed about 25% to Maybank Indonesia’s total assets. Its Islamic banking window made up about 5% of Maybank Indonesia’s total assets 10 years ago.
To be sure, many multinationals have long been playing to the Muslim community. The food and beverage sector has been the front-runner in this space, according to Nilakshi Medhi, head of strategic planning at advertising giant Publicis’ Indonesia office. Not only do these companies ensure halal certification, but chains like McDonald’s and KFC introduce special menu offerings during Ramadan, along with pre- and post-fasting meals.
Big beauty and fashion brands like L’Oréal of France and Sweden’s H&M have also made efforts to cater to the growing Muslim consumer class with halal cosmetics and modest fashion apparel in specific markets. Even travel platforms are now offering packages that ensure compliance with halal standards in accommodations and food in a bid to capture a share of a values-driven market.
Islamic consumers have made their buying power known in other ways—such as withholding their dollars from companies over political disputes. The recent conflict in Gaza has provided one vivid example.
Activists in both the Islamic world and the West called for boycotts as a way to take a stand against what they saw as unjust treatment of Palestinians in Gaza by Israel and some brands’ perceived complicity in that mistreatment. Last October, Unilever’s Indonesia unit reported an 18% drop in revenue for its third quarter to 8.4 trillion rupiah ($533 million). The conglomerate previously said that its growth in Southeast Asia had been hurt by shoppers in Indonesia who were engaged in geopolitically focused consumer-facing campaigns.
Berjaya Food, which franchises Starbucks coffee shops in Malaysia, has taken a particularly sharp hit from boycotts. Starbucks doesn’t currently operate in Israel, and has said it doesn’t financially support Israel in any way. But in October 2023, the company criticized and sued a union aiming to organize Starbucks workers after the union posted pro-Palestinian comments on social media; Starbucks was subsequently included in consumer boycotts.
The coffee chain accounts for about 90% of Berjaya Food’s revenue. In March 2024, Berjaya’s owner spoke out in exasperation. He argued that boycotting Starbucks in Malaysia is unnecessary because it’s essentially a local operation. “We don’t even have one foreigner working in the head office or stores,” Vincent Tan said. “In the stores, 80% to 85% of employees are Muslim.”
Tan’s words hardly lessened the impact. Revenue for Berjaya’s Starbucks franchise declined to 676 million ringgit ($152.4 million) for its fiscal 2024, compared with 1 billion ringgit ($225.4 million) the year before. Berjaya Food blamed the decline on the negative impact of the ongoing conflict on consumer sentiment.
Medhi from Publicis Indonesia says authenticity is “nonnegotiable” when it comes to catering to Muslim consumers. That creates openings on which companies like Wardah and Buttonscarves can capitalize.
Anggrea, the Buttonscarves CEO, describes her typical aspirational customer as a Muslim woman who now has more money and may want to buy a better-quality, more fashionable scarf to use as a hijab. Italian fashion house Loro Piana has been selling scarves in Southeast Asia for decades, Anggrea notes, but a middle-income person in a place like Indonesia may not be able to afford that level of luxury.
That is the market Anggrea positions her brand to operate in, and she sees a market not only in Indonesia and across Southeast Asia, but even as far as Turkey. Her goal is to create products that specifically speak to the Muslim consumer but are still accessible to the mainstream market. She argues that her brand is really a lifestyle apparel company, and not exclusively a hijab-making one.
A well-designed and good-quality scarf is versatile, she says. “Some non-Muslims wear scarves as an accessory; Muslims choose to wear it on their heads.” She adds that while Muslims make up the bulk of Buttonscarves customers, sales do go up during Christmas.
“Other societies can relate with this lifestyle,” Anggrea says, including modest fashion apparel that covers wearers to the wrist or ankles.
Sari Chairunnisa of Wardah strikes an even more ambitious tone. She explains that halal products, whether food or cosmetics, emphasize responsible resource use and a commitment to sustainability.
She recounts conversations she had about halal cosmetics at a beauty expo in September in Boston, noting that consumers were beginning to associate halal with sustainable production. “When they see a halal logo, even though they’re not Muslims, they ask if it’s a sustainable or a natural product, so they already have their own definition,” Sari says. “Fifteen years ago they might have asked, ‘What is this logo?’”
Sari thinks that with enough education—and with a growing Muslim consumer class buying up halal products—the concept of halal will gain global mainstream acceptance outside of Islamic communities.
“I believe halal will become like ikigai in Japan,” says Sari, referring to the Japanese term for a passion that provides value and joy in life. “It’s a Japanese concept, but foreigners can also buy into it.”
This article appears in the April/May issue of Fortune with the headline “The new Muslim consumer.”