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Josh Weil has the nation’s attention. Can Democrats really beat Randy Fine in CD 6?

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The eyes of political viewers across the country will be trained Tuesday night on a congressional race in Northeast Florida. There, polls show Republican Randy Fine and Democrat Josh Weil locked in a neck-and-neck race to succeed former U.S. Rep. Michael Waltz.

That’s shocking in itself, as voters in Florida’s 6th Congressional District just in November backed Donald Trump by 30 percentage points. Waltz in November won his re-election campaign with 66.5% of the vote.

Republicans hold a major advantage in the race as far as voter registration is concerned. With voter rolls closed ahead of the Special Election, CD 6 had more than 273,000 Republicans registered, compared to just over 142,000 Democrats, while another more than 143,000 other voters.

But Democrats have turned lingering resentment over the 2024 Presidential Election into a massive haul in political contributions. Weil said he has raised more than $10 million for the race, mostly in small donations from across the county. By contrast, Fine has underperformed in fundraising, reporting less than $1 million in contributions, according to his latest fundraising report.

But can a middle school math teacher with a “D” by his name beat a sitting state Senator running with Trump’s endorsement in a deep red district? That’s a question the political world will have answered after polls close at 7 p.m. Tuesday.

“For the last four months our campaign has been in the field, knocking doors and engaging with new and current voters,” Weil said. “As we approach election day, our efforts have been reflected in what we’ve seen in the early vote, because we remain focused on what truly matters to the voters. I am dedicated to protecting Social Security, Medicare and lowering costs, ensuring that our seniors and families have the support they need to thrive.

“I’m grateful for the hundreds of thousands of Floridians and regular Americans who still believe in a better future. It’s that grassroots energy that is going to defeat career politician Randy Fine and the huge corporations and special interests that own him and his campaign.”

Fine, though, remains confident the voters in this district remain supportive of Trump’s agenda, and that the final election results will reflect as much. He said the election comes down to some easy choices for conservative voters.

“Donald Trump-candidate vs. Bernie Sanders-candidate. Self-made businessman vs guy skimming his own campaign funds,” Fine said. “Republicans need to vote. If they do, it’s going to be Fine.”

Ground game

When it comes to voter turnout, Democrats have been able to keep things much tighter, according to data tracked by analyst Michael Pruser. As of Monday morning, 19,095 mail-in ballots from Democrats had been received by elections officials compared to 17,562 ballots from Republicans; another 7.519 ballots were received from voters not registered with either party.

After two weeks of in-person early voting wrapped on Saturday, Republicans have closed the turnout gap and then some. In total, 29,841 Republicans across the district cast in-person ballots across the six counties in CD 6, compared to 19,012 Democrats and 7,906 others.

But that still means more than a quarter of all Democrats eligible to vote in the election already turned out before polls even opened on Election Day on Tuesday. By comparison, less than 16% of Republicans had turned out, and Democrats have reason to believe many of those are disaffected voters upset at Trump or who just don’t like Fine.

In fact, one of the Republicans who once represented CD 6 in Congress now serves as Governor of Florida. Fine and Gov. Ron DeSantis have feuded for more than a year over a range of issues, with things taking a notably sour turn after the Palm Bay Republican switched a presidential endorsement from DeSantis to Trump in 2023. When asked about the difference in Democratic and Republican turnout in CD 6 last week, DeSantis quickly pegged blame on “the specific candidate running in that race.”

Nevertheless, the state party reports members of DeSantis’ political team have been knocking on doors in CD 6 ahead of the election. Additionally, the Republican Party of Florida (RPOF) has managed 200,000 volunteer phone calls supporting candidates in this Special Election and another also happening in Florida’s 1st Congressional District. The party will staff tents at most high-traffic precincts.

“Phone calls are still going out from across the state to voters saying if you haven’t gone out and voted, it’s an important election in CD 6,” said Bill Helmich, RPOF Executive Director.

But Florida Democratic Party (FDP) officials also have put resources into the field to back Weil.

“We’re going to run through the tape,” said Matt Dailey, FDP Deputy Communications Director. “We are making sure we reach out to every Democratic voter.”

National attention

The interest in the race proved wide enough to attract Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin to canvas the district alongside FDP Chair Nikki Fried. Sanders, a progressive U.S. Senator from Vermont, endorsed Weil.

But Trump also personally stepped in, holding a tele-rally for Fine ahead of the vote. Additionally, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, a gubernatorial candidate who once served with Fine in the Florida House, held a tele-rally with Fine on the eve of the election with conservative pundit Ben Shapiro.

Weil held several mini-canvassing events throughout the district and will spend much of Tuesday on the ground in the most populous areas of Putnam, Marion and Flagler counties before holding a party in the evening in Daytona Beach. Fine, meanwhile, spent his Monday in conservative bastions like Tavares and Ormond Beach after spending much of the weekend in conservative St. Johns County.

Privately, Republicans figure if they can grow the difference between GOP voters and Democrats who cast ballots to between 12 and 15 percentage points. But Democrats say even if Weil doesn’t win, the results can send a powerful message. The last time CD 6 was an open seat, when Waltz was elected in 2018, Republicans won by less than 13 percentage points. If Weil simply beats that spread, Democrats could call that a win.


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St. Pete City Council OKs $22.5M for Tropicana Field roof repairs

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St. Pete City Council voted to approve $22.5 million to replace the iconic domed roof on Tropicana Field after it was destroyed by high winds from Hurricane Milton in October.

Replacing the roof has been a source of contention throughout the city as the future of Major League Baseball in St. Petersburg — or even perhaps the Tampa Bay region — remains in peril. The Rays are contractually obligated to play at Tropicana Field through the 2027 season, and as the team’s landlord, the city is required to fix the stadium.

While the vote may come as a frustration to some — including City Council member Richie Floyd, who voted against the expenditure because he wanted to see numbers worked up on how much it would cost to buy the Rays out of their remaining contract — the approved expenditure is about half the original estimated cost to fix the roof, estimated at nearly $56 million in November.

In response to Floyd’s concern about buying the Rays out of their remaining contract, City Administrator Rob Gerdes said it was considered, but doing so would have cost the city insurance reimbursements and Federal Emergency Management Agency aid, according to the Tampa Bay Times.

The vote paves the way for the Rays to return to Tropicana Field for the 2026 season, after they play this season in Tampa at Steinbrenner Field.

A report sent to St. Pete City Council in November outlined needed repairs and estimates to complete them, including $24 million to replace the roof. In all, the estimate came to $39 million in damages to the stadium, with another $16 million in other related needs.

The price tag is particularly stinging considering a calculated risk the city took last March, reducing its insurance coverage on Tropicana Field from $100 million to just $25 million. The move saved the city $275,000 on insurance premiums. The policy also has a $22 million deductible.

And it comes less than a month after Rays leadership announced it would not move forward with a previously approved stadium deal.

The team blamed “a series of events beginning in October” for its “difficult decision.” That’s in reference to Hurricane Milton and its damage to the stadium, which led to approval delays for bonds necessary to move forward with the deal.

The team has said those bond approval delays caused cost overruns and blamed the city of St. Pete and Pinellas County for hitches in what had seemed like a done deal.

Rays Principal owner Stuart Sternberg said at the time that the team was “excited to return to our home field next spring,” pointing to the city’s efforts to move forward with stadium repairs.

The latest also comes as investors are lining up to buy the Rays amid frustration with current ownership.

Tampa businessman Joe Molloy, who is a former minority owner of the New York Yankees, is heading a group of prospective Tampa-based investors seeking to buy the Rays. They would keep the team in St. Pete under the existing stadium deal, according to the Tampa Bay Times.


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Democrats take hope in flipping a county in a ruby red corner of the Florida Panhandle

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Tucked inside a gray cinder block building that doubles as a hair salon, Derrick Scott and Democrats in the westernmost part of the Florida Panhandle spent the last four months trying to pull off the improbable — flipping a conservative military stronghold that President Donald Trump won by nearly 20 percentage points in November.

When the results came in late Tuesday, Democrat Gay Valimont had fallen short of winning a congressional seat that few thought she had a chance to claim. But for the first time in almost two decades, a Democrat vying for federal office had carried Escambia County, home to Pensacola — a remarkable outcome in itself. The last time voters in the county backed a Democrat for the U.S. House was in 1992.

“I was gobsmacked to say the least,” said Scott, chair of the Escambia County Democratic Party.

The leftward shift around Pensacola and shrinking margins in the rest of the 1st Congressional District and another on Florida’s Atlantic Coast may foreshadow big challenges ahead for Republicans as they look to next year’s midterm elections. It could also illuminate a path forward for embattled Democrats in Florida and elsewhere.

Republicans, from Trump on down, are quick to tap the brakes on Democrats’ enthusiasm. They note that Trump-endorsed candidates Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine both won their respective special election contests by double-digit margins to replace Matt Gaetz, who the president tapped to be attorney general before he withdrew in a shroud of controversy, and Michael Waltz, who became Trump’s national security adviser.

The outcome grows the GOP majority in the U.S. House to 220-213.

Still, in less than five months, margins were cut in half from what their predecessors got last November in some of the most conservative corners of the country. Democrats leaned into frustrations among veterans and people who depend on federal programs and may be bearing the brunt of the Trump administration’s aggressive government overhaul. The results may hold lessons for how their party can make the case against the president and his party going forward.

Choosing a well-known face who had made inroads in Pensacola in the past election helped Democrats gain ground in a stretch of the Emerald Coast that is home to thousands of military veterans and their families. So did a decisive fundraising advantage, boosted by support from a political action committee led by a U.S. Navy veteran.

“It is a warning sign for Republicans in Florida and across the country, and it should send shivers down the spine of any Republican,” said Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried, who said the results were proof her party had a “pulse” in this state that lost its battleground status over the past few years.

Fried noted there are four military bases in or near Pensacola. And in Florida’s 6th Congressional District, about 60% of residents receive benefits through Veterans Affairs, Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid.

“Those are the issues that are really going to be waking up the sleepy beast,” she said. “It’s not just Democrats, but Americans understand that the Trump and Elon Musk platform and issues are not going to work.”

The Ehr Force PAC is a play on founder Phil Ehr’s last name and military service. Ehr was already known in Pensacola and, in 2020, took 44% of the vote in this county compared to Gaetz’s 55%. He spent months working with local Democratic officials to call, text and door-knock, asking disengaged voters what would motivate them to come back to the polls. The PAC said there was “a significant number of defections” from the GOP.

“It’s a hard, hard road. But now we’ve seen it can be done,” Ehr said.

Heather Lindsay, the Republican mayor of the city of Milton in neighboring Santa Rosa County, voted for Valimont, the Democrat challenging Patronis.

“It’s not about being loyal to one party or the other,” she explained. “It’s about making sure we have a functioning democracy.”

Lindsay has been critical of the cuts impacting the Department of Veteran Affairs and of elected officials who have said little about some of the Trump administration’s new measures.

“I think the Republican Party ought to look closely at what happened in Escambia County and see why they couldn’t take Escambia County for granted,” she said. “To see Escambia County go blue is something to pay attention to.”

Since the GOP took control of the seat in 1994, Republicans had never dropped below 61% of the share of the vote in Florida’s 1st Congressional District. On Tuesday, Patronis received 57% of the vote, compared to his opponent Valimont, who got 42%.

Sally Dutcher, a 77-year-old retired search and rescue worker in Pensacola, was at the watch party for Patronis Tuesday night, where a wave of nervousness rippled through the crowd as supporters watched early returns come in. She said Republicans were “overconfident” and expects Democrats to point to these results to attract more support heading into the 2026 midterms.

“We’ve got to start now. We can’t let up,” Dutcher said. “They’re not going to. They’re already starting on the next election.”

Another area where Democrats gained ground was in Volusia County, made up of residents in Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach and other rural areas further inland. In that county, Fine won by slightly less than 2 percentage points against his Democratic opponent, Josh Weil, after Trump won by 21 percentage points in November.

William Bittorf, of Daytona Beach, said he felt relief when Fine won the race because he feels the Republican president needs more support in Congress to fulfill his agenda.

“I was worried because the Democrats had raised so much money,” Bittorf said.

In the same city, Susan Spencer, a 65-year-old resident, wanted to support a Democrat precisely to stop some of Trump’s actions.

Spencer, an independent voter turned off by the Republican Party after Trump was elected in 2016, stood in line to cast her vote, saying it was a “pivotal time in our government today.”

Spencer suspected most in the line ahead of her would vote for the Republican candidate.

“I just wonder if they also watch the news,” Spencer said.

___

Republished with permission of The Associated Press.


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Last Call for 4.3.25 – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida

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Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

The Legislature budgeted $160 million for the Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA) in 2023 to cover a Medicaid disallowance, but the state agency spent that money in other ways instead.

The federal government says AHCA still must settle the cost, so now agency leaders are asking lawmakers for the same amount again.

It’s a disagreement that is generating tension between the executive branch agency and the Florida House at a time when Gov. Ron DeSantis and House Speaker Daniel Perez already appear to be frequently at loggerheads.

The proposed House health care budget doesn’t currently include money specially earmarked for the $160 million disallowance, though the full House budget does have more than $183 million available to cover disallowances that could be used for this purpose.

But as the issue looms over budget negotiations, it has already garnered the attention of Washington, where Republicans continue to push to reduce spending.

The matter became the topic of a lengthy exchange at a House Health Care Budget Subcommittee meeting on March 12, where Republican members of the House sought an accounting of how the money was spent from Bryan Meyer, Deputy Secretary of Medicaid, and Lynn Smith, Deputy Secretary of Operations.

Read more on Florida Politics.

Evening Reads

The influential paper that explains Donald Trump’s radical tariff policy” via Dylan Matthews of Vox

—”‘I should have sold more’: Wall Street reels as Trump’s plan sinks markets” via Gregory Zimmerman, Krystal Hur and Gunjan Banerji of The Wall Street Journal

—”Market reacting poorly to Trump’s launch of huge, nonsensical tariffs that may have been created by a chatbot” via Ben Mathis-Lilley of Slate

—”Trump’s tariffs are designed to backfire” via Rogé Karma of The Atlantic

—“Why Democrats need to apologize to the public” via Chris Cillizza of So What

—”‘Gut punch’: Opposition grows to Attorney General’s decision not to enforce law banning gun sales to buyers under 21” via Matthew Cupelli of Fresh Take Florida

—”Randy Fine says Ron DeSantis, team ‘begged’ him to apply for FAU opening” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

—”Democrats take hope in flipping a county in a ruby red corner of the Florida Panhandle” via The Associated Press

—”Senate passes bill banning geoengineering, weather modification” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics

—”Val Kilmer was born to play Jim Morrison” via Rob Sheffield of Rolling Stone

Quote of the Day

“For some reason, it seems the last week or so the Governor has been a little more emotional and has been upset …”

— House Speaker Daniel Perez, on the Governor’s relationship with the House.

Put it on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Get your Tin Foil Hats ready because the Florida Senate has approved a bill banning geoengineering and weather modification in the Sunshine State.

Where did your 401(k) go? Have a Drain Pipe while you read up on the fallout from Liberation Day.

Order an Anchors Away for all the boat owners who know how to care for their vessels. For the others … well, there could be consequences.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Gators ready for Final Four

The Florida Gators tip off in the Final Four against Auburn on Saturday evening (6:09 p.m. ET, CBS).

Florida advanced to the program’s first Final Four since 2014 with an 84-79 victory over Texas Tech in the West Regional final. The Gators outscored the Red Raiders 20-6 to finish the game and earn the trip to San Antonio.

The meeting with Auburn will be the second this season. Florida beat the then-top ranked Tigers 90-81 on Feb. 8 in Alabama, handing Auburn its first loss of the season. In the game, Florida led the entire second half. Walter Clayton Jr. led Florida with 19 points as five Gators scored in double figures, including Thomas Haugh, who scored 16 points in 29 minutes off the bench.

Miles Kelly led Auburn with 22 points while Johni Broome added 18 points and 11 rebounds in the losing effort for the Tigers.

Auburn advanced to the Final Four with a 70-64 victory over second-seeded Michigan State in the South Regional final.

The other national semifinal pits Duke against Houston. This year, four number-one seeds have advanced to the Final Four for the first time since 2008.

If Florida were to beat Auburn, they would advance to Monday’s national championship game. If the Gators were to win the national title, it would be the third in program history, matching Villanova for eighth place all-time.

___

Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.


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