Jerry Demings, David Jolly are tied, but concerns remain about nominating another former Republican

The Democratic Primary for Governor remains neck-and-neck, with Jerry Demings and David Jolly tied, according to a new poll.

A Public Policy Polling survey, first shared with POLITICO, shows 22% of voters favor Demings, the Mayor and former Sheriff of Orange County. A similar 22% prefer Jolly, a former Congressman-turned-MSNOW commentator. But more than half the electorate, or 56%, remain undecided. The poll was conducted Dec. 2-3.

A polling memo from GQR, Demings’ pollster, notes significant weaknesses in the Democratic base regarding Jolly, who was a Republican when he served in Congress and only broke with the GOP in the Donald Trump era.

The poll, paid for by a political committee tied to Demings, tested messaging and found that vulnerability could reshape the race.

“Jolly’s past as a Republican insider, who opposed Obamacare and fought to restrict a woman’s right to choose, will pose a significant challenge for him to win the Primary. Sixty-nine (69%) percent of Democratic Primary voters have a serious concern about Jolly after learning this information,” the polling memo states.

“The state of the race dramatically changes when voters are reminded of Jolly’s Republican past, and Demings moves to an almost 30-point advantage leading among men and women, all races, and all age groups.”

After informing survey respondents about Jolly’s GOP voting record, pollsters conducted an “informed Primary Vote” and found that results shifted significantly. Demings polled at 45% while Jolly dropped to 16%. Only 39% of Primary voters remained unsure after the messaging, with Demings winning all gender, race and age demographic groups.

Notably, Democrats in 2022 nominated former Republican Governor Charlie Crist, only to see him lose to incumbent Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis by a landslide. Crist was also the Democratic nominee who unsuccessfully challenged former Gov. Rick Scott’s re-election in 2014.

The poll found some concern about Jolly even before the messaging. Pollsters conducted favorability ratings and found Jolly with a 28% favorability, a smidge higher than the 25% favorability score for Demings. But 12% of respondents held an unfavorable view of Jolly, twice as many as those who had negative opinions of Demings (6%).

The polling memo also says Demings “starts more popular among Black and Latino voters than David Jolly.”

As for the political environment, the memo suggests the base is fired up. Trump is deeply unpopular, with 95% of Democrats disapproving of his job performance. About 42% of likely Democratic Primary voters prioritize inflation and the cost of living, while 31% cite political dysfunction in Washington and Tallahassee.