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JD Vance says the Suez Canal only matters for European trade. He was both correct and mistaken at the same time, a top strategist says

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  • The vice president’s comments came to light when Jeffrey Goldberg, the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic, revealed Monday that he had been sent war plans after being added to a group chat that appeared to include JD Vance, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Trump’s decision to strike, analysts said, signaled his administration is becoming increasingly focused on combating Iran, ideally without causing energy prices to skyrocket.

An Iran-backed militant group has wreaked havoc on shipping in the Red Sea, a major chokepoint of global trade, for over a year. The Trump administration decided to intervene, launching airstrikes on Houthi rebels in Yemen on Mar. 15, but Vice President JD Vance initially called the plan a “mistake” in a text conversation with top national security officials, saying the move bailed out Europe and was a tough sell to the American people.

Vance’s comments came to light when Jeffrey Goldberg, the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic, revealed Monday that he had been sent war plans after being added to a group chat that appeared to include Vance, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. According to Goldberg’s account, a fascinating policy discussion ensued when Vance aired his concerns a day before the strikes. 

The Suez Canal attracts 12% to 15% of all global maritime trade, but only 3% of U.S. trade runs through the artificial waterway connecting the Red Sea with the Mediterranean, Vance claimed.

“[Forty] percent of European trade does,” he wrote. “There is a real risk that the public doesn’t understand this or why it’s necessary. The strongest reason to do this is, as POTUS said, is to send a message.”

Vance was correct and mistaken at the same time, said Marko Papic, who advises institutional investors about geopolitics as chief strategist at BCA Research. Objectively, he said, the Suez looms much larger for European commerce than U.S. trade.

But the American rationale for addressing disruptions in the Red Sea also involves the Trump’s administration’s strategy toward Iran, which experts say helps train, arm, and supply intelligence to the Houthi rebels. Beyond the obvious humanitarian concerns, preventing a wider conflict in the Arabian Peninsula is key for the global economy considering the likely ruinous impact of a spike in oil prices. 

While it’s unclear what exact numbers Vance was referring to, 40% of trade between Asia and Europe travels through the Red Sea, according to a January 2024 note from Allianz.

“Energy prices are the most vulnerable factor, as 12% of seaborne oil and 8% of liquefied natural gas pass through the Suez Canal,” Allianz wrote, “causing energy prices in Europe to remain highly volatile.”

Still, Papic said Vance was shortsighted to assume the U.S could force Europe to foot the bill for protecting Red Sea shipping lanes. The Suez Canal is a tremendous convenience in that ships can travel between Europe and Asia without going around South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, Papic acknowledged, but he said it’s hardly a necessity.

“It’s kind of an act of a neighborhood mobster to burn down the grocery store,” Papic said, “and then hunt for who did it and send the bill to the proprietor.”

That said, the journey around Africa adds roughly 10 or more days to Asia-Europe voyages, according to the Atlantic Council. As ships spent longer in transit when the Houthis first disrupted Red Sea shipping in late 2023, the think tank explained, global shipping capacity shrank by about 20%. 

“Over the long run, those things can become problematic,” said Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical and U.S. political strategist at BCA Research.

In the government group chat, Vance eventually indicated he was on board. Hegseth acknowledged the vice president’s concerns about “European free-loading,” calling the continent’s inaction “PATHETIC.” The defense secretary said he felt it was a good time to act, however, given President Donald Trump’s “directive to reopen shipping lanes.”  

At the time of publication, the White House had not responded to a request for comment.

Who are the Houthis?

The U.S. Navy has taken charge of protecting free maritime navigation since the 1956 Suez Crisis, Gertken noted, when U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower forced former colonial powers in the U.K. and France to stand down when Egypt took control of the waterway.

Therefore, one would have typically expected a forceful American response when the Houthis began targeting military and civilian ships in the Red Sea. The insurgent group, which controls Yemen’s capital city of Sana’a and much of the country’s west, where most of the population is located, considers itself part of Iran’s “axis of resistance” against Israel, America, and the West.

According to the BBC, the Houthis have targeted over 100 merchant vessels with missiles and drones between the start of Israel’s war with Hamas in late 2023 and the tenuous Gaza ceasefire reached in January.

The Biden administration ordered strikes but struggled to form a broader coalition in the Middle East and Europe to address the crisis. Gertken suggested Biden’s team was “paralyzed” by fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East sparking an inflationary shock to oil prices amid a tight election race. Vance voiced similar concerns last week.

“I am not sure the president is aware how inconsistent this is with his message on Europe right now,” he said. “There’s a further risk that we see a moderate to severe spike in oil prices.”

But Gertken said Trump’s decision to strike suggests the new administration, having started with Ukraine as its first foreign policy priority, is now also focusing on combating Iran. In the text chain, Hegseth said waiting to attack the Houthis risked allowing Israel to act first, preventing the U.S. from getting to “start this on our own terms.”

“It’s not really surprising at all that we’re building towards some major crescendo with Iran,” Gertken said.

It’s preferable, he added, to fight with Iran’s Yemeni proxy in the Red Sea rather than on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula in the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly 21 million barrels of oil travel per day, accounting for a fifth of the world’s total oil flows, per the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Attacks on tankers or, worse, a wider conflict in that crucial waterway, Gertken said, could spur stagflation, the dreaded combo of negative growth and higher inflation.

“It could really send the stock market into a tailspin,” he said.

Apparently, some of that calculus in Washington is discussed over text.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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South Koreans will soon vote for a new president, after courts uphold Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment for his martial law disaster

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South Korea’s Constitutional Court on Friday upheld President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment over his disastrous martial law declaration, voting unanimously to strip him of office for violating the constitution.

Yoon, 64, was suspended by lawmakers over his Dec. 3 attempt to subvert civilian rule, which saw armed soldiers deployed to parliament. He was also arrested on insurrection charges as part of a separate criminal case.

His removal triggers fresh presidential elections, which must be held within 60 days.

“Given the serious negative impact and far-reaching consequences of the respondent’s constitutional violations… (We) dismiss respondent President Yoon Suk Yeol,” said acting court President Moon Hyung-bae.

The decision was unanimous by all eight of the court’s judges, who have been given additional security protection by police with tensions high and pro-Yoon supporters rallying in the streets.

Yoon’s actions “violate the core principles of the rule of law and democratic governance, thereby undermining the constitutional order itself and posing a grave threat to the stability of the democratic republic,” the judges said in their ruling.

Yoon’s decision to send armed soldiers to parliament in a bid to prevent lawmakers from voting down his decree “violated the political neutrality of the armed forces and the duty of supreme command.”

He deployed troops for “political purposes”, the judges said, which “caused soldiers who had served the country with the mission of ensuring national security and defending the country to confront ordinary citizens.”

“In the end, the respondent’s unconstitutional and illegal acts are a betrayal of the people’s trust and constitute a serious violation of the law that cannot be tolerated from the perspective of protecting the Constitution,” the judges ruled.

Impeached

Yoon is the second South Korean leader to be impeached by the court after Park Geun-hye in 2017.

After weeks of tense hearings, judges spent more than a month deliberating the case, all while public unrest swelled.

Police raised the alert to the highest possible level Friday, enabling the deployment of their entire force. Officers encircled the courthouse with a ring of vehicles and stationed special operations teams in the vicinity.

Anti-Yoon protesters cried, cheered and screamed as the verdict was announced. Some jumped and shook each other’s hands in joy, while others hugged people and cried.

Outside Yoon’s residence, his supporters shouted and swore, with some bursting into tears as the verdict was announced.

Yoon, who defended his attempt to subvert civilian rule as necessary to root out “anti-state forces”, still commands the backing of extreme supporters.

At least two staunch Yoon supporters—one in his 70s and the other in his 50s—have died after self-immolating in protest of the controversial leader’s impeachment.

Embassies—including the American, French, Russian and Chinese—have warned citizens to avoid mass gatherings in connection with Friday’s verdict.

The decision shows “first and foremost the resilience of South Korean democracy,” Byunghwan Son, professor at George Mason University, told AFP.

“The very fact that the system did not collapse suggests that the Korean democracy can survive even the worst challenge against it—a coup attempt.”

‘Highly unlikely’ to reinstate

South Korea has spent the four months since Yoon declared martial law without an effective head of state, as the opposition impeached Yoon’s stand-in—only for him to be later reinstated by a court ruling.

The leadership vacuum came during a series of crises and headwinds, including an aviation disaster and the deadliest wildfires in the country’s history.

This week, South Korea was slammed with 25 percent tariffs on exports to key ally the United States after President Donald Trump unveiled global, so-called reciprocal levies.

Since December, South Korea has been “partially paralysed—it has been without a legitimate president and has been challenged by natural disasters and the political disaster called Trump,” Vladimir Tikhonov, Korean Studies professor at the University of Oslo, told AFP.

Yoon also faces a separate criminal trial on charges of insurrection over the martial law bid.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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Stocks take a brutal slide after the Fed signals fewer rate cuts ahead

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U.S. stocks tumbled to one of their worst days of the year after the Federal Reserve hinted Wednesday it may deliver fewer shots of adrenaline for the U.S. economy in 2025 than earlier thought.

The S&P 500 fell 2.9%, just shy of its biggest loss for the year, to pull further from its all-time high set a couple weeks ago. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1,123 points, or 2.6%, and the Nasdaq composite dropped 3.6%.

The Fed said Wednesday it’s cutting its main interest rate for a third time this year, continuing the sharp turnaround begun in September when it started lowering rates from a two-decade high to support the job market. Wall Street loves easier interest rates, but that cut was already widely expected.

The bigger question centers on how much more the Fed will cut next year. A lot is riding on it, particularly after expectations for a series of cuts in 2025 helped the U.S. stock market set an all-time high 57 times so far in 2024.

Fed officials released projections on Wednesday showing the median expectation among them is for two more cuts to the federal funds rate in 2025, or half a percentage point’s worth. That’s down from the four cuts expected just three months ago.

“We are in a new phase of the process,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said. The central bank has already quickly eased its main interest rate by a full percentage point to a range of 4.25% to 4.50% since September.

Asked why Fed officials are looking to slow their cuts, Powell pointed to how the job market looks to be performing well overall and how recent inflation readings have picked up. He also cited uncertainties that will require policy makers to react to upcoming, to-be-determined changes in the economy.

While lower rates can goose the economy by making it cheaper to borrow and boosting prices for investments, they can also offer more fuel for inflation.

Powell said some Fed officials, but not all, are also already trying to incorporate uncertainties inherent in a new administration coming into the White House. Worries are rising on Wall Street that President-elect Donald Trump’s preference for tariffs and other policies could further juice inflation, along with economic growth.

“When the path is uncertain, you go a little slower,” Powell said. It’s “not unlike driving on a foggy night or walking into a dark room full of furniture. You just slow down.”

One official, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, thought the central bank should not have even cut rates this time around. She was the lone vote against Wednesday’s rate cut.

The reduced expectations for 2025 rate cuts sent Treasury yields rising in the bond market, squeezing the stock market.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.51% from 4.40% late Tuesday, which is a notable move for the bond market. The two-year yield, which more closely tracks expectations for Fed action, climbed to 4.35% from 4.25%.

On Wall Street, stocks of companies that can feel the most pressure from higher interest rates fell to some of the worst losses.

Stocks of smaller companies did particularly poorly, for example. Many need to borrow to fuel their growth, meaning they can feel more pain when having to pay higher interest rates for loans. The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks tumbled 4.4%.

Elsewhere on Wall Street, General Mills dropped 3.1% despite reporting a stronger profit for the latest quarter than expected. The maker of Progresso soups and Cheerios said it will increase its investments in brands to help them grow, which pushed it to cut its forecast for profit this fiscal year.

Nvidia, the superstar stock responsible for a chunk of Wall Street’s rally to records in recent years, fell 1.1% to extend its weekslong funk. It has dropped more than 13% from its record set last month and fallen in nine of the last 10 days as its big momentum slows.

On the winning end of Wall Street, Jabil jumped 7.3% to help lead the market after reporting stronger profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected. The electronics company also raised its forecast for revenue for its full fiscal year.

All told, the S&P 500 fell 178.45 points to 5,872.16. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,123.03 to 42,326.87, and the Nasdaq composite skidded 716.37 to 19,392.69.

In stock markets abroad, London’s FTSE 100 edged up by less than 0.1% after data showed inflation accelerated to 2.6% in November, its highest level in eight months. The Bank of England is also meeting on interest rates this week and will announce its decision on Thursday.

In Japan, where the Bank of Japan will wrap up its own policy meeting on Friday, the Nikkei 225 slipped 0.7%. That was despite a 23.7% jump for Nissan Motor Corp., which said it was in talks on closer collaboration with Honda Motor Co., though no decision had been made on a possible merger. Honda Motor’s stock lost 3%.

Nissan, Honda and Nissan alliance member Mitsubishi Motors Corp. agreed in August to share components for electric vehicles like batteries and to jointly research software for autonomous driving to adapt better to dramatic changes in the auto industry.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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China hits back at Trump’s tariffs with an antitrust investigation into Google and a new 15% tax on U.S. coal and gas

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U.S. President Donald Trump fired the “opening salvo” of his second trade war on Tuesday as a new 10% levy on Chinese goods came into effect. 

Beijing retaliated soon after. China will impose a 15% tariff on imports of U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas, and a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery, large engine cars, and pickup trucks, according to a statement from the Ministry of Finance.

Separately, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said it would launch an investigation into Google for alleged anticompetitive practices. The SAMR’s statement did not elaborate on how Google may have violated the law. 

Google withdrew its search product from China in 2010 because of concerns over censorship, yet it still maintains offices in the country for its advertising business. 

China is increasingly flexing its antitrust muscles against non-Chinese tech companies. In 2023, the SAMR scuttled a deal between Intel and Tower Semiconductor by failing to give timely approval for the merger. Then, last December, China announced it was launching an anti-monopoly probe into Nvidia over its acquisition of Mellanox Technologies. 

Finally, China designated Calvin Klein owner PVH Corp. and biotech company Illumina as “unreliable entities,” a designation that could lead to punitive actions by Beijing. Last September, Beijing said it would investigate PVH for allegedly boycotting cotton grown in Xinjiang. 

How are markets reacting to new tariffs?

On Monday, the U.S. delayed the imposition of new tariffs on China and Mexico by 30 days. Trump said he held off on the new taxes after both countries agreed to deploy troops to reinforce their respective borders with the U.S.

Trump also said that he could speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping as soon as this week. The two leaders last spoke via phone on Jan. 17, days before Trump took office. 

Asian markets rose on Tuesday, though gains were pared back slightly as both U.S. tariffs came into effect, followed by China’s announced retaliation. Investors were particularly optimistic about Chinese tech companies, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by almost 4.5%.

The CSI 300 index, which tracks the top 300 companies traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen, dipped by 0.28% in early trading on Wednesday. Markets in mainland China have been closed since Jan. 28 owing to the Chinese New Year holiday.

Why is Trump imposing new tariffs on China?

Trump has suggested that the new 10% tariff is the result of China not doing enough to control the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. Beijing and Washington have had some cooperation over fentanyl in recent years, including a counter-narcotics working group that was launched in January last year.

On Tuesday, China’s Ministry of Finance accused the U.S. of violating the rules of the World Trade Organization, and said new tariffs wouldn’t help the U.S. resolve its own problems. 

The new Trump tariff could subtract 0.4 percentage points from China’s 2025 GDP growth, Larry Hu, Macquarie’s chief China economist, estimated in a note published Monday. Hu calculated that new stimulus of 500 billion yuan ($70 billion) could offset the drag on growth.  

Correction Feb. 5, 2025: This piece has been updated with the latest CSI 300 benchmark movements as an earlier version incorrectly stated that mainland Chinese markets opened on Feb. 4

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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