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JD Vance says the Suez Canal only matters for European trade. He was both correct and mistaken at the same time, a top strategist says

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  • The vice president’s comments came to light when Jeffrey Goldberg, the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic, revealed Monday that he had been sent war plans after being added to a group chat that appeared to include JD Vance, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Trump’s decision to strike, analysts said, signaled his administration is becoming increasingly focused on combating Iran, ideally without causing energy prices to skyrocket.

An Iran-backed militant group has wreaked havoc on shipping in the Red Sea, a major chokepoint of global trade, for over a year. The Trump administration decided to intervene, launching airstrikes on Houthi rebels in Yemen on Mar. 15, but Vice President JD Vance initially called the plan a “mistake” in a text conversation with top national security officials, saying the move bailed out Europe and was a tough sell to the American people.

Vance’s comments came to light when Jeffrey Goldberg, the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic, revealed Monday that he had been sent war plans after being added to a group chat that appeared to include Vance, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. According to Goldberg’s account, a fascinating policy discussion ensued when Vance aired his concerns a day before the strikes. 

The Suez Canal attracts 12% to 15% of all global maritime trade, but only 3% of U.S. trade runs through the artificial waterway connecting the Red Sea with the Mediterranean, Vance claimed.

“[Forty] percent of European trade does,” he wrote. “There is a real risk that the public doesn’t understand this or why it’s necessary. The strongest reason to do this is, as POTUS said, is to send a message.”

Vance was correct and mistaken at the same time, said Marko Papic, who advises institutional investors about geopolitics as chief strategist at BCA Research. Objectively, he said, the Suez looms much larger for European commerce than U.S. trade.

But the American rationale for addressing disruptions in the Red Sea also involves the Trump’s administration’s strategy toward Iran, which experts say helps train, arm, and supply intelligence to the Houthi rebels. Beyond the obvious humanitarian concerns, preventing a wider conflict in the Arabian Peninsula is key for the global economy considering the likely ruinous impact of a spike in oil prices. 

While it’s unclear what exact numbers Vance was referring to, 40% of trade between Asia and Europe travels through the Red Sea, according to a January 2024 note from Allianz.

“Energy prices are the most vulnerable factor, as 12% of seaborne oil and 8% of liquefied natural gas pass through the Suez Canal,” Allianz wrote, “causing energy prices in Europe to remain highly volatile.”

Still, Papic said Vance was shortsighted to assume the U.S could force Europe to foot the bill for protecting Red Sea shipping lanes. The Suez Canal is a tremendous convenience in that ships can travel between Europe and Asia without going around South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, Papic acknowledged, but he said it’s hardly a necessity.

“It’s kind of an act of a neighborhood mobster to burn down the grocery store,” Papic said, “and then hunt for who did it and send the bill to the proprietor.”

That said, the journey around Africa adds roughly 10 or more days to Asia-Europe voyages, according to the Atlantic Council. As ships spent longer in transit when the Houthis first disrupted Red Sea shipping in late 2023, the think tank explained, global shipping capacity shrank by about 20%. 

“Over the long run, those things can become problematic,” said Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical and U.S. political strategist at BCA Research.

In the government group chat, Vance eventually indicated he was on board. Hegseth acknowledged the vice president’s concerns about “European free-loading,” calling the continent’s inaction “PATHETIC.” The defense secretary said he felt it was a good time to act, however, given President Donald Trump’s “directive to reopen shipping lanes.”  

At the time of publication, the White House had not responded to a request for comment.

Who are the Houthis?

The U.S. Navy has taken charge of protecting free maritime navigation since the 1956 Suez Crisis, Gertken noted, when U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower forced former colonial powers in the U.K. and France to stand down when Egypt took control of the waterway.

Therefore, one would have typically expected a forceful American response when the Houthis began targeting military and civilian ships in the Red Sea. The insurgent group, which controls Yemen’s capital city of Sana’a and much of the country’s west, where most of the population is located, considers itself part of Iran’s “axis of resistance” against Israel, America, and the West.

According to the BBC, the Houthis have targeted over 100 merchant vessels with missiles and drones between the start of Israel’s war with Hamas in late 2023 and the tenuous Gaza ceasefire reached in January.

The Biden administration ordered strikes but struggled to form a broader coalition in the Middle East and Europe to address the crisis. Gertken suggested Biden’s team was “paralyzed” by fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East sparking an inflationary shock to oil prices amid a tight election race. Vance voiced similar concerns last week.

“I am not sure the president is aware how inconsistent this is with his message on Europe right now,” he said. “There’s a further risk that we see a moderate to severe spike in oil prices.”

But Gertken said Trump’s decision to strike suggests the new administration, having started with Ukraine as its first foreign policy priority, is now also focusing on combating Iran. In the text chain, Hegseth said waiting to attack the Houthis risked allowing Israel to act first, preventing the U.S. from getting to “start this on our own terms.”

“It’s not really surprising at all that we’re building towards some major crescendo with Iran,” Gertken said.

It’s preferable, he added, to fight with Iran’s Yemeni proxy in the Red Sea rather than on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula in the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly 21 million barrels of oil travel per day, accounting for a fifth of the world’s total oil flows, per the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Attacks on tankers or, worse, a wider conflict in that crucial waterway, Gertken said, could spur stagflation, the dreaded combo of negative growth and higher inflation.

“It could really send the stock market into a tailspin,” he said.

Apparently, some of that calculus in Washington is discussed over text.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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The housing market now has more ‘downside risks’: layoffs from DOGE and the trade war

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  • Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok said layoffs from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency and Trump’s trade war could pose a threat to housing, which had a decent month of sales in an otherwise frozen market. A higher unemployment rate would only make matters worse.

It was a week of back-to-back housing data that revealed some positive and some negative manifestations in the market. But there is an unanticipated development to watch out for: the Department of Government Efficiency run by the richest man in the world, Elon Musk.

“Downside risks to the housing market are layoffs because of DOGE and any potential layoffs because of trade war uncertainty,” Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok told Fortune in a statement, referring to the administration’s back-and-forth tariffs. “If the unemployment rate starts to go up it would be a downside risk to housing.”

There are mass layoffs occurring in the federal government—part of Musk’s and his non-cabinet level body’s cost-cutting. A person is less likely to consider buying a home if they’ve just lost their job. 

Until now, that had not necessarily been an issue in the post-pandemic housing world. Instead, home sales are depressed because people can’t afford to buy after prices skyrocketed during the pandemic and mortgage rates followed; others aren’t selling either because they don’t want to lose their low mortgage rate. So if sales, mostly existing home sales, are already at recessionary levels and unemployment goes up, it would not be good.

DOGE and the White House press office did not respond to Fortune’s request for comment.

Layoffs would come just as there are some signals home sales could be taking a turn for the better. The data released throughout the week showed solid job and wage growth is boosting demand for housing, according to Slok. But the positive home sales numbers might not be so positive when you consider the big picture, other economists told Fortune

In February, sales of newly constructed homes rose 1.8% from a month earlier and 5.1% from a year earlier, per government data released Tuesday. Pending home sales rose 2% in February compared to a month ago but fell 3.6% compared to a year ago, per data released Thursday. 

That “suggests improved home buying activity” after January’s weak numbers, Wells Fargo Senior Economist Charles Dougherty said. “Zooming out, however, the message is that adverse affordability conditions continue to weigh significantly on the housing sector.”

Dougherty explained that the month-over-month pending home sales bounce is encouraging because it means they aren’t in free fall. But they’re still lethargic and near record lows. When it comes to new home sales, they continue to outdo existing sales because homebuilders can offer what sellers can’t: incentives such as mortgage rate buydowns. But new home sales have basically been flat over the past several months, Dougherty mentioned. 

Existing home sales data came out last week and showed sales rose 4.2% in February from January but slipped 1.2% from a year ago.

Selma Hepp, chief economist for Cotality, formerly CoreLogic, echoed Dougherty, saying that activity is low compared to historical trends, despite the slight uptick. 

Meanwhile, high home prices and mortgage rates continue to weigh on affordability and limit a housing market recovery, Sam Williamson, senior economist at First American Financial, said. Home prices rose 4.1% in January, per the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, which was reported Tuesday. This is in line with the recent trend of slower appreciation but an increase nonetheless.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate came in at 6.65% for Freddie Mac’s weekly reading Thursday, a two-basis-point drop. That is an improvement, but mortgage rates are nowhere near their pandemic rock bottom of sub-3% that people became accustomed to. The high home price, high mortgage combination has eroded affordability and that can’t be reversed because of some favorable data.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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The Trump tariff ‘chain reaction’: America’s car and auto insurance payments could soar by $24 billion

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Even if you’re not in the market for a new car, U.S. President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on auto imports could make owning one more expensive.

The new taxes, which are set to begin April 3 and expand in the following weeks, are estimated to raise the average cost of a car imported from another country by thousands of dollars. But repairs for vehicles that currently use foreign-made parts are also expected to get pricier — and, as a result, hike insurance costs farther down the road.

While the White House says these tariffs will foster domestic manufacturing and raise $100 billion in revenue annually, economists stress that straining the auto industry’s global supply chain brings significant disruptions. Dealerships and car repair shops will likely have little choice but to raise prices — leading drivers across the country to pay more for everyday maintenance.

Here’s what you need to know.

How will tariffs affect my next car repair?

It depends on what you need fixed and where you go in to get your car serviced. But some industry analysts warn that drivers could see costs jump in as early as the coming weeks or months.

“If you are bringing your car to get repaired, chances are, it’s going to have a part that comes from another country,” said Jessica Caldwell, head of insights at auto-buying resource Edmunds. “That price that you pay is likely going to be directly affected by the increase (from these tariffs).”

Trump’s Wednesday proclamation on auto tariffs points specifically to engines, transmissions, powertrain parts and electrical components. That covers a lot of repairs as is, Caldwell notes, and the administration has also signaled the possibility of future expansion.

And while automakers may develop new pricing strategies for new vehicles impacted by tariffs, Caldwell expects they will to be less likely to absorb the costs of individual parts — leaving consumers with the bill perhaps more imminently.

Much of the car repair market has heavily relied on imports, particularly from America’s biggest trading partners. According to February numbers from the American Property Casualty Insurance Association, a trade group that represents home, auto and business insurers, about 6 in every 10 auto replacements parts used in U.S. auto shop repairs are imported from Mexico, Canada and China.

“You can’t walk into a dealership today and not see a United Nations of parts,” said Skyler Chadwick, director of Product Consulting at Cox Automotive. But sourcing and supply varies between each servicer, he adds, making it all the more complex to nail down when exactly prices will rise after these tariffs take effect.

Desiree Hill, owner of Crown’s Corner, an auto repair and mechanics shop in Conyers, Georgia, says the auto tariffs were already hurting her business. She was working on repairing a vintage 1960 Opel Rekord car and ordered a part from Germany, but the manufacturer canceled the order due to the tariffs.

“I can’t get (the part) anywhere in our country. Period. So that that was very disappointing,” she said.

About half of the cars she works on are foreign-made, so the tariffs will make repairing those cars more difficult.

“Unfortunately we don’t have a choice but to raise prices if they are raised on us,” she said. “We can’t take that kind of loss.”

Car repair prices have already been on the rise for years, with analysts pointing both to growing labor costs and more expensive components needed for vehicles with advanced technology.

Edward Salamy, executive director of the Automotive Body Parts Association, also says car companies have been trying to “gain a monopoly” to limit remedies to their own parts or processes, reducing options for consumers.

Tariffs, he said, will just exacerbate the issue: “Many of these distributors will have no choice but to raise their list price.”

How are car dealerships managing?

Joshua Allrich, who operates a family-owned used car dealership called Allrich Auto in Atlanta, is among those concerned about facing higher costs while also trying to save his customers money.

“It’s going to make things a lot more expensive,” Allirch said, adding that, while he’s looking forward to the possibility of people rushing to buy cars before the tariffs take effect, his business will soon have to adjust. “My wheelhouse is economy cars, affordable cars. And now, this tariff is going to directly hit us because it’s gonna just make things go up.”

Chadwick says that dealers and other servicers will need to be as transparent as possible as these tariffs take effect while also preparing to have difficult conversations about rising prices with customers.

He adds that tariffs are also going to put pressures on the reselling market. Used cars often have to be serviced before dealerships can sell them back to customers — again opening the door for higher repair costs due to tariffs. And “all that cost goes right back into the consumer” through what they end up having to pay for the vehicle, he explains.

In efforts to delay impacts, some dealers and repair shops might turn to stocking up on inventory before tariffs hit, particularly for parts that get requested the most. Analysts say many have long-anticipated the threat of auto tariffs, and are already grappling with the impact of Trump’s new steel and aluminum levies that took effect earlier this month.

But stockpiling can only go so far. And for small business owners, spending money for a lot of inventory at once can be risky, especially when Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff threats raise questions about how long they will last.

If they end up being short-lived, Caldwell said, “Do you really want to buy a bunch of inventory that you’re going to have to sit and hold on (to) for quite some time?”

What will happen to my insurance premiums?

Because accidents involving new parts will see increased costs for repairs, insurance premiums will also likely rise due to tariffs.

But that may be farther into the future. Bob Passmore, department vice president of personal lines at the American Property Casualty Insurance Association, expects consumers to see an impact on their insurance bill in 12 to 18 months at a minimum. That’s because increased prices have to hit claims costs, then be implemented after new rates are filed and approved.

Still, the trade association has estimated that personal auto insurance claims costs alone could rise a total of between $7 billion and $24 billion annually.

It wasn’t immediately clear how large providers of auto insurance were preparing for the impacts of these tariffs. Allstate, State Farm, Geico and Progressive did not immediately respond to The Associated Press’ requests for comment on Friday.

But even if it takes long to trickle down, these tariff-related hikes would again arrive as consumers have already faced rising insurance costs. The Insurance Information Institute estimated that average U.S. auto premiums increased 14% in 2023 and 12% in 2024.

Mark Friedlander, the institute’s senior director of media relations, said via email that the research trade nonprofit projected a 7% average premium increase for auto insurance across in 2025 at the start of the year — but that didn’t account for potential tariff impacts, which will drive them even higher.

Increased costs spanning from tariffs cause a “chain reaction for insurance,” Caldwell adds. “This is a total ownership cost increase, rather than just a purchase increase.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



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‘We’re just hanging on for dear life’: How CEOs are navigating increasing geopolitical uncertainty.

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