Jay Collins confident GOP will take back his old Senate seat in November

While it’s uncertain if Lt. Gov. Jay Collins will be elected Governor, the Tampa Republican is certain the GOP would have retained his old Senate District 14 seat if members of the party had shown up to back the nominee, Rep. Josie Tomkow.

“I think that if Republicans had showed up — only 26% showed up to vote — that would have been a Red Sea,” Collins said.

“The math plays it out that way. You’ve got to show up and be present to vote,” Collins continued. “Ultimately, I’m sure that we’ll win this back in the next election come November, and it’s critical to do so. But in the end, if we show up and vote, we use our voice, I think things work out exactly how they’re supposed to.”

Republican attrition was only part of the problem, given that Nathan got 77% of the no-party vote.

Collins was not part of the final push for Tomkow, but he said in a post-mortem interview that while he can’t “force (himself) on someone,” he is “here” nonetheless, noting that he and his team flipped the seat four years ago and that he’s willing to help in November.

“Believe me, I care about that seat,” Collins said. “I would love to sit down and talk about the seat. And if they want me to help, I am happy to help. But I’m not going to force it and mess up their plans.”

Collins is more diplomatic about Tomkow’s loss than the man who appointed him LG, vacating the seat in the process.

Gov. Ron DeSantis ripped Tomkow as a bad candidate earlier this week during his own remarks in Tampa, saying she underperformed in a winnable seat.

“I was not involved at all in that race. The reality is, when I get behind a candidate, I’m telling voters that this is somebody that shares my values and that shares our goals for the state of Florida. If you have a candidate that does not do that, I am not going to be supporting them, and that’s what happened in that race,” DeSantis said.

He then went on to connect that to the Special Election outcome.

“Four years ago, I won that district overwhelmingly. The former Senator won it pretty strongly, too. Not an easy district for us per se, but that’s just the reality. But what you saw in that is you got a 10-point Republican turnout advantage in that district and still lost the race,” DeSantis said.

“So to me, that tells you not only you’re not doing well with independents, Republicans are voting the other way, registered Republicans. And whether that’s out of protest, whether … maybe they’re not as concerned, I don’t know what goes on there. But I know if you have a 10-point advantage in your party registration, you should be able to win that election.”