It’s a sign of the times in Jacksonville that as many people are talking about the 2031 mayoral race as they are about the one in two years.

Some suggest former 2023 mayoral candidate Daniel Davis, who runs the Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce, may end up squaring off with Sheriff TK Waters.

Waters will be term-limited just as Democratic Mayor Donna Deegan would if she wins re-election.

That context may explain recent text messages and phone calls, including from a shadowy entity called “People over Profits,” that calls attention to city funding for the Chamber and urges cessation of the long-standing process.

However, six years is a lifetime in politics. If you go back from now that far, you’re in an era where the pandemic couldn’t have been imagined.

It raises the question: who runs against Deegan in 2027?

Names have been floated. State Rep. Wyman Duggan is likely the best fundraiser of the bunch, while Elections Supervisor Jerry Holland and City Council member Ron Salem likewise haven’t discouraged speculation.

And there may yet be bigger names to come.

They and other candidates should figure it out before the qualifying period in January 2027.

Assuming they do decide, new polling shared first with Florida Politics says there might be a window for a Republican.

The survey shows that on a ballot with just party identification and no candidate names, voters prefer a Generic Republican to a Generic Democrat, 42% to 37%.

The Tyson Group contextualizes the result of the survey amid a shift in the electorate to the GOP, as Republicans have winnowed down the Democratic plurality from D+4.3% to D+1.6%. Additionally, history tells them Republicans will win the turnout battle.

“The survey was administered online to a recruited panel and the data was weighted to reflect the expected partisan composition of the likely electorate — Republicans at 45%, Democrats at 41%, and No Party Affiliation/Minor Parties (i.e., independent voters) at 14% — based on recent Duval County mayoral elections,” pollsters note.

Further supporting their thesis, the Tyson Group notes Republicans have added 8,667 voters, Democrats have lost 9,167, and independent voters have increased by 324 since the 2023 mayoral election.

Deegan, well-known locally after decades as a television news anchor, took advantage of a fragmented Republican base, many of whom rejected GOP candidate Daniel Davis after a fractious and bitter March election saw him and other Republicans run profoundly negative campaigns.

The survey suggests that if Republicans can avoid a circular firing squad in two years, they may again take control of the Mayor’s Office.

The 410 people surveyed also made their preferences known about fiscal issues.

They think they are taxed too much and that the government spends too freely.

Seventy-eight percent of respondents support a reduction in property taxes, one that has already cleared the Finance Committee ahead of next month’s ratification of the FY 25-26 budget. That mandate crosses party lines, suggesting a winning argument in 2027, especially if Deegan continues to balk at cutting the millage rate.

And 73% said government “can cut waste and lower taxes without cutting essential services.”

The Tyson Group says this shows “a clear disconnect between city officials’ framing of the budget and how voters believe city finances should be managed.”

All told, 14% of respondents say property taxes are the most critical issue to them, putting it in third place of priorities. 35% of poll participants put improving the economy first, while 21% say fighting crime is the biggest local issue.

Reinstatement redux

Meanwhile, a former Jacksonville Mayor is still pushing to get back on a Board he was appointed to by President Joe Biden.

Alvin Brown, a former Vice Chair of the panel, claims he was removed without cause from the National Transportation Safety Board, and got a letter of support this week from Democracy Forward.

The group is already helping with his case, so the letter echoes contentions made in the original filing.

“Congress made the National Transportation Safety Board independent for a reason: to ensure that investigations into transportation disasters are driven by expertise and evidence. The termination of Rev. Brown and the undermining of the independence of this Board does nothing to keep people safe. At a time when transportation safety is top of mind, we should be strengthening, not weakening, the systems meant to protect all Americans,” said the group’s legal director, Elena Goldstein.

Unsurprisingly, Democracy Forward’s 32-page letter of support echoes the arguments Brown makes that he should have been allowed to serve his full term, rather than being dismissed by the Donald Trump administration earlier this year.

In that light, they seek his reinstatement to the Board.

“The one-sentence termination email provided no reason for his termination. Within less than 24 hours, Mr. Brown was forced to return his government equipment and ID. He is no longer able to access his office or to perform the duties that he was presidentially appointed and Senate confirmed to do,” Democracy Forward argues.

Brown, who has become a reverend in recent years, allegedly brought unique qualifications to the Board through his “past experiences.” He is said to have led responses from the NTSB to mass casualty car wrecks in Austin, Texas, as well as Belle Glade, Florida.

Black celebration

Rep. Dean Black will spearhead the Republican Party of Florida’s fundraising efforts in the near term.

“Dean brings a proven record of conservative leadership and fundraising excellence to this role. As a member of the Florida House, Dean has been a steadfast voice for our values and a consistent advocate for Republican priorities. In addition to his legislative service, Dean served as Chairman of the Duval County Republican Executive Committee, where he transformed the organization’s fundraising operation — raising millions of dollars for his local REC and setting county records along the way,” Chair Evan Power told members of the state party this week.

Power says Black will “strengthen our fundraising success at the state level, but to work closely with all of you — at the county level — to work on best practices and tools to make sure our RECs have the financial infrastructure to ensure we keep winning up and down the ballot.”

Tick tock

Former U.S. Rep. Al Lawson, who represented Jacksonville for six years ending in 2022, might be looking to get back in the game.

As we noted last week, the Democratic perennial floated running for Governor.

And he’s still pushing trial balloons skyward.

“Maybe we need a good Primary,” Lawson told the Tallahassee Democrat, as he expressed doubt that people outside of Tampa have any idea who former Republican Congressman and current Democratic front-runner David Jolly is.

“All these officials call me and tell me he might be our best shot, but your best shot does not mean you are going to win,” Lawson added.

The 77-year-old says Jolly has three months to prove he can unify the party.

Nepotism schism

Should the city of Jacksonville’s lawyer have hired his father-in-law’s firm?

That’s the controversy the City Council voted to resolve via soliciting an opinion from the Florida Ethics Commission. General Counsel Michael Fackler hired the Bedell Law Firm, owned by his father-in-law Hank Coxe, for “legal services directly rendered by his father-in-law for the Consolidated Government of the City of Jacksonville.”

Former General Counsel Jason Gabriel would solicit the opinion rather than a member of Fackler’s staff, via “a legal memorandum … prior to the Council taking final action on this legislation, providing the relevant facts and background and any legal analysis the city would request the Commission consider in providing a written advisory opinion.”

Asked what he would charge, Gabriel didn’t offer a verbal estimate.

President Kevin Carrico said the question was whether it was “right or wrong” for Fackler to make the hire.

The question of legality may be predicated on state law, given that local ordinances don’t address it.

Florida Statutes 112.3135 defines a father-in-law as a “relative.” And it sets restrictions on a public official, such as a General Counsel, hiring a relative.

“A public official may not appoint, employ, promote, or advance, or advocate for appointment, employment, promotion, or advancement, in or to a position in the agency in which the official is serving or over which the official exercises jurisdiction or control any individual who is a relative of the public official,” state law reads.

Manufacturing muddle

First Coast manufacturing contracted again in July, marking a half-year of contraction among industrialists in the region.

The University of North Florida (UNF) Jacksonville Economic Monitoring Survey (JEMS) showed 10 out of 12 sectors contracted last month, a further decline from June. It’s a streak of overall contractions among First Coast manufacturers that started in February and has not reversed since.

Albert Loh, Interim Dean of the UNF Coggin College of Business, supervises the survey of industrial output. Given the national implications of President Donald Trump’s international tariff considerations, Loh said, manufacturers remain nervous as most show a manufacturing index below 50, which is the threshold for expansion.

“Multiple subindexes, including new orders, new export orders, backlogs of work, input purchases, material inventories, and employment, registered well below 50, showing broad-based weakness in demand and production pipelines,” he noted in his summary of the survey.

He added that the remainder of 2025 could be a rough ride for First Coast manufacturers.

“While the area’s strong transportation infrastructure and port access provide long-term advantages, current conditions suggest that the remainder of 2025 may see subdued growth unless there is a rebound in domestic and export demand,” Loh said.

Buyers’ market

July ended with another slide in housing sales in the six-county First Coast region.

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) issued its monthly market analysis. In July, there were 1,849 homes sold in the area stretching from the Georgia state line south to Palatka. That’s down by 6.6% from July 2024, when there were 1,980 houses purchased. It’s also a 9.4% drop from June’s figure of 2,041 homes sold.

July represents the third consecutive month that home sales have fallen in Northeast Florida in the monthly comparison. The decline in closed sales is also coming as more houses are going on the market, with an inventory of 8,882 homes for sale in the region. That’s 10.7% more inventory than July 2024, when there were 8,022 homes for sale and it’s up by 0.8% from June’s inventory of 8,808 homes on the market.

The median sales price for homes on the First Coast remained relatively stable in July, coming in at $394,000. It’s a 1.5% decline from July 2024’s figure of $399,882, but a slight increase from June’s price of $389,900.

In the county-by-county breakout, in Duval County, the region’s most populous county and home to Jacksonville, there were 947 sales closed in July, down 2.5% from July 2024’s figure of 971 and an 8.5% drop from June’s tally of 1,035. The median sales price in Duval was $329,000 in July, a 4.6% decline from a year ago but a slight 0.3% uptick from June.

St. Johns County, one of Florida’s fastest-growing regions, saw home sales slow in July, when there were 468 closed sales. That’s down by 13.3% from July 2024, when there were 540 home sales and a 7.7% decrease from June, when 507 homes were sold. The median sales price in July was $592,000, a 0.1% increase from July 2024 and a 2.1% increase from June in St. Johns County.

Nassau County, bordering Georgia, saw a substantial decrease in closed home sales last month. There were 113 sales, down 18.7% from July 2024’s figure of 139 and a 16.3% slide from June, which posted 135 sales. The median sales price in Nassau in July was $464,000, up by 4.8% from July 2024 and 2% from June.

Clay County also saw a notable slide in closed home sales last month. There were 261 closings, a 4.7% drop from July 2024, which posted 274 sales and a 12.4% drop from June with 298 sales. The median Clay home sales price was $369,485 last month, a 0.7% increase from July 2024 and a 1.2% uptick from June.

Baby boom

State Sen. Tracie Davis and Rep. Wyman Duggan are announcing a $4.5 million state investment to expand labor and delivery services at Baptist Medical Center Jacksonville.

The funding addresses a critical need in Northeast Florida, where recent unit closures and a projected 14.5% rise in high-risk pregnancies have strained regional capacity. The expansion will double the hospital’s labor and delivery rooms from 12 to 24 and add an OB emergency room, new operating suites, and a dedicated antepartum unit for continuous monitoring of high-risk mothers.

“This funding allows us to expand our capacity to care for the most medically complex pregnancies and deliver the highest level of obstetrical care,” said Michael A. Mayo, president and CEO of Baptist Health. He called it a “powerful step forward” in ensuring local access to advanced maternal care. The state funds are part of a larger $25.8 million, multiphase project supported by philanthropy and scheduled for completion in August 2026.

This initiative strengthens the region’s only Level IV Perinatal Health Care Center, which is directly integrated with Wolfson Children’s Hospital’s Level IV NICU. “Beyond expanding physical space, we’re expanding our ability to respond to urgent complications,” said Nicole B. Thomas, president of Baptist Medical Center Jacksonville. This ensures even the most medically fragile newborns receive immediate, expert treatment without having to leave the area.

E-bike efforts

Bicycles have long been an entrenched mode of transportation in Florida, but the latest iteration of the vehicles, electronic bicycles or e-bikes, has grown increasingly present on many of the state’s beaches, restaurant areas and tourist destinations.

St. Johns County, home to tourist-rich locales St. Augustine and Ponte Vedra Beach, is now taking measures to increase safety awareness for e-bikes after two troubling accidents involving the two-wheeled vehicles this year.

The e-bikes are electric-powered bicycles that still have pedals that can help charge the electric battery. But the push of a button or turn of a throttle can get e-bikes traveling to speeds of about 20 mph to 30 mph, depending on the brand and capacity of each e-bike battery.

The St. Johns County Commission passed a resolution this month to join forces with the Sheriff’s Office and the St. Johns County School District to promote more awareness and safety for the operators of e-bikes, as well as e-scooters and other electronic motorized devices.

The move comes after two 15-year-old boys suffered serious injuries following separate accidents on e-bikes in St. Johns County. For a town like St. Augustine, tourists often rent e-bikes, and they’re hardly limited to the streets of historic districts. They’re increasing in presence on beaches, and beachgoers use them to traverse miles of coastline.

“I am excited about this partnership to improve safety in our community on this issue,” “I was honored to be supported by my fellow County Commissioners to assemble a partnership with the Sheriff’s Office and School District,” said District 3 Commissioner Clay Murphy.

“Together, we will address this public safety issue of e-bikes in the classrooms with students, in the community with parents, and on the streets with our community. This resolution is the first step in a campaign to educate e-bike users proactively and provide enforcement when necessary.”

St. Johns County Sheriff Rob Hardwick said the resolution’s timing is right.

“Education and enforcement are critical to promote safety in our communities. We’ve experienced far too many tragedies involving e-bikes and young people; this resolution is a reminder of our unified commitment to prioritize the safety of our citizens,” Hardwick said.

Free ride

The Jacksonville Transportation Authority is making it easier for students to get to and from school.

No bus fare will be charged for middle and high school, college and university, and trade or vocational students in Duval County, JTA announced last week.

“Helping students get to school each day allows the JTA to support families, neighborhoods and the future of Jacksonville,” said JTA CEO Nat Ford. “We are proud to play a role in learning, achievement and opportunity for Duval County students.”

My Ride 2 School is there for the younger students, while the JTA College Student Annual Pass Program is there for those attending FSCJ, UNF, or other colleges and universities.

Finally, My Ride to Train provides enrollees in registered technical, trade, vocational or apprenticeship programs in Duval County free fixed route rides through the end of June 2026.

Second chance

The Jaguars’ preseason opener was highlighted by Travis Hunter playing on offense and defense and, most notably, Cam Little’s 70-yard field goal. What the team must show in the second preseason game, Sunday in New Orleans against the Saints, is a more convincing performance by the starters.

Against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday, the Jaguars’ starting offense played one series against a Steelers’ defense mostly made up of projected backups. In the lone drive with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, the Jaguars managed to gain 44 yards in 12 plays, with the drive ending in a 41-yard field goal by Cam Little.

The positives from the drive include converting a fourth-and-one. The starters were 0-for-2 on third-down opportunities. Lawrence was pretty accurate, completing six of seven passes, although one pass hung Brian Thomas Jr. out to dry. Lawrence did not go downfield much. His longest completion went for 11 yards, a connection with tight end Brenton Strange that moved the chains on second down.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Jaguars faced a Pittsburgh offense without most of the projected starting skill position players, including quarterback Aaron Rodgers, wide receivers DK Metcalf and Robert Woods, tight end Pat Freiermuth, and running back Jaylen Warren.

And yet, the Steelers scored on their first drive, going 65 yards in nine plays against the Jaguars’ first-team defense.

Both sides of the ball must show improvement against the Saints.

It is the preseason. And the Jaguars are implementing new schemes on both offense and defense, so there is no call for panic. But there does need to be improvement against New Orleans. The expectation is that both teams will play starters deeper into the game.

New Orleans has questions at quarterback with Spencer Rattler as the projected starter ahead of rookie Tyler Shough. Considering Rattler has played just seven NFL games, the Jaguars should be able to perform against the Saints’ starters. If they do not, concern would be called for.

On offense, Lawrence will want to lead touchdown drives. That could call for more downfield passing. The running game could also help. Both Tank Bigsby and Bayshul Tuten ran better than Travis Etienne on Saturday, albeit against inferior opposition.

As for Hunter, he caught two passes for 9 yards and showed his coverage ability. He also took the brunt of a stiff arm on an attempted tackle in the run game. A decent start, but no impact plays, which will be one of the things to look for in the coming weeks.

As for the kicking game, Little was remarkable, making field goals from 41, 40, 70, and 52 yards. Punter Logan Cooke did his thing, averaging 50 yards per kick. The return game didn’t show much. Austin Trammell’s 37-yard kickoff return was the best of the night, while the Jaguars’ coverage teams looked good — in particular, former Navy Midshipman Rayuan Lane, a sixth-round pick this year.

The truth is, we don’t know much more about the Jaguars after the first preseason game. Games two and three should put a bigger spotlight on the team’s chances to contend in 2025.

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